If there was a referendum tomorrow - how would you vote?

Iwasfrozen · 22-01-2013 06:36PM

Crooked Jack wrote: »

Even if i were to subscribe to the ridiculous notion that Ireland is just the 26 counties, Ireland is most certainly not fine.
It faces the same problems as the north and in many cases has worse one.
For example, sectarian violence in the north is reprehensible but in terms of sheer numbers it doesn't come close to the body count from gangland killings.

Ireland the island is 32 counties but Ireland the state is 26, that's an irrefutable fact put down in the constitution. And not sure what Ireland's gangland killings have to do with unification?

Chips Lovell · 22-01-2013 06:38PM

gurramok wrote: »

Any up to date figures? Since Cameron came to power, he has set deep cutbacks to all parts of UK. NI is enduring £4bn in spending cuts from 2010 to 2014.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11590420

Surely that £4bn reduction will reduce that £7bn deficit?

Assuming tax receipts are the same, yes. I'd like to see up to date figures too.

gutteruu · 22-01-2013 06:41PM

If it did unite, the first tiny bit of violence would kill the tourism industry that the whole left side of the country depends upon! It will also mean unionists bringing violence to the south. So no! Make it a free state maybe and come back to the issue when this generation have moved on.

super_furry · 22-01-2013 06:47PM

It wouldn't be a small bit of violence. It'd be a full scale civil war.

Do you honestly think that even moderate Unionists would just sit back?

TheTwiz · 22-01-2013 07:10PM

In the ideal world we'd all love a united Ireland but unfortunately I don't think it's feasible. Anyone who believes it is just has a romantic view of it all.
Last month we saw the Union flag democratically voted to be taken down for the majority of the year. Look what happened. Absolute uproar in Northern Ireland.
Can you imagine if the North was reunited with Ireland. There would be murder on the streets of Dublin, Waterford, Dundalk etc. I for one don't want our peaceful nation under that threat.
The people of "Northern Ireland" are fully entitled to get an Irish passport. In sport they're allowed represent Ireland in every single sport if they wish to do so. They're as Irish as me or as anyone from Mayo to Kerry. I for one one think the current imaginary border remaining is an ideal situation for everyone involved.

BlatentCheek · 22-01-2013 07:15PM

I thought that due to the GFA it'd only be people in NI who could vote on it?

Anyway we couldn't afford to run it, we can't afford to run the 26 counties we have.
Unionists wouldn't support it, polls indicate a majority of Catholics there wouldn't either.
Would we want hundreds of thousands of Unionists who at best wouldn't want to be in Ireland and at worst would resort to violence?

I think it would be imprudent to end partition without some form of qualified majority vote in any referendum held in NI anyway, passing it with 51% would just open a can of worms

awec · 22-01-2013 07:23PM

BlatentCheek wrote: »

I thought that due to the GFA it'd only be people in NI who could vote on it?

Anyway we couldn't afford to run it, we can't afford to run the 26 counties we have.
Unionists wouldn't support it, polls indicate a majority of Catholics there wouldn't either.
Would we want hundreds of thousands of Unionists who at best wouldn't want to be in Ireland and at worst would resort to violence?

I think it would be imprudent to end partition without some form of qualified majority vote in any referendum held in NI anyway, passing it with 51% would just open a can of worms

Not quite. People in NI will vote and people in the ROI will vote but it's two separate votes. People down here are of course going to get a say as to whether they want to take on the funding of another 6 counties, 5 of which will offer very little to any new 32 county state.

Both must vote yes for it to happen.

gurramok · 22-01-2013 07:24PM

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Assuming tax receipts are the same, yes. I'd like to see up to date figures too.

Review of the budget by Queens University here https://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/media/Media,236375,en.pdf.

QUB wrote:

For all these reasons, the public sector is estimated to be responsible for around 70 per cent of N. Ireland’s GDP

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/northern-ireland-net-fiscal-balance-report-09-10-10-11.pdf (they had a housing crash too though)

2011
Revenue - 23.2bn
Expenditure - 12.7bn

deman · 22-01-2013 07:25PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

Id take a poo in the ballot box to let them know how I really feel.

That you give a sh....?

awec · 22-01-2013 07:26PM

gurramok wrote: »

Review of the budget by Queens University here https://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/media/Media,236375,en.pdf.

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/northern-ireland-net-fiscal-balance-report-09-10-10-11.pdf (they had a housing crash too though)

2011
Revenue - 23.2bn
Expenditure - 12.7bn

Those sound plausible, NI has a large number of public sector employees. Much larger than any of the other UK constituents. AFAIK, there are a few UK-wide public sector departments run from NI.

It's a bloated mess, and a lot of these people would be out of the job (as there's no way the ROI could afford to prop it up).

22-01-2013 07:36PM

If a united Ireland means a 2nd republic, this time incorporating the six counties, with a new constitution fit for the 21st century - then I am all for it. I see that as an opportunity.

If it's just shoe-horning the North into an unchanged ROI it's a missed opportunity and would never happen anyway.

dj jarvis · 22-01-2013 07:44PM

where is keightAFC when you need him ?

ejmaztec · 22-01-2013 07:56PM

The cheap shopping would be screwed, we'd all get robbed, not just the people down here.

Paranoid1 · 22-01-2013 07:59PM

Lets be realistic, a united Ireland will never ever ever happen

guttenberg · 22-01-2013 08:03PM

awec wrote: »

Not quite. People in NI will vote and people in the ROI will vote but it's two separate votes. People down here are of course going to get a say as to whether they want to take on the funding of another 6 counties, 5 of which will offer very little to any new 32 county state.

Both must vote yes for it to happen.

Got to ask, which is the goldmine county in NI in your view?

ITS_A_BADGER · 22-01-2013 08:06PM

At this stage we cant afford them. It would make more sense for a referendum if they were not separeted from the south for so long its been how many years since the brits took the north

Where To · 22-01-2013 08:28PM

guttenberg wrote: »

Got to ask, which is the goldmine county in NI in your view?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2VsoSW5w44

end of the road · 22-01-2013 08:30PM

ITS_A_BADGER wrote: »

At this stage we cant afford them.

yes we can

ITS_A_BADGER · 22-01-2013 08:44PM

end of the road wrote: »

yes we can

How so? we would need to borrow more money from our bailout to support another 2 million people, putting us into more debt? i dont think the time is right yet

super_furry · 22-01-2013 08:44PM

end of the road wrote: »

yes we can

We can't afford the increase to our policing and military budget it would take to even attempt to quell the inevitable violence and terrorism.

Crooked Jack · 22-01-2013 09:26PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Ireland the island is 32 counties but Ireland the state is 26, that's an irrefutable fact put down in the constitution. And not sure what Ireland's gangland killings have to do with unification?

Well I refute it, ergo it is not irrefutable. Ireland is Ireland. 26 counties can no more claim the name than cork and Kerry could club together and decide they are Ireland. And I mentioned the killings to show that all of Ireland has issues with violence. The south is not some bastion of peace and love and the north a violent cesspit threatening to spill across the border. The whole country faces the same problems and the best way to face them is together.

Augmerson · 22-01-2013 09:37PM

Right now? No. Too many obstacles, the major being that the Republic isn't even in charge of it's own finances right now.

In the future though yes. And maybe not a 32 county Republic. Maybe some kind of Federation?

Mr.Nice Guy · 22-01-2013 09:50PM

This poll is basically asking me would I rubber-stamp and endorse an injustice against my ancestors by continuing to divide the Irish people in the 6 counties from the rest of the Irish people in the 26 counties. Well no, I would not endorse it and would vote for reunification.

The majority of the people of this island in 1918 voted for a party which put forward a republican agenda and the response of the British state was to ignore the vote; to prevent the Irish case being put forward at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 at a time when they were supposed to be keen on helping the freedom of small nations; to declare the Dáil illegal and subsequently partition the country in order to satisfy the demands of a minority in the north-east of the island against the wishes of the overall majority of the island; so I'm not sure why any Irish person would give the seal of approval to this action.

Even if one is of the view that partition was a reasonable solution to the difficulties, the manner in which it was conducted was not reasonable. As J.J. Lee points out, there were more Catholics to Protestants in Tyrone and Fermanagh than there were Protestants to Catholics in Armagh and Derry. The entire purpose of partition was to give a parliament to a people that had hitherto threatened to oppose democracy through violence in order to get their way.

In my view it was a terrible moment in history that set the island up for a century of bitterness and hostility and I would gladly love to have my say in undoing it once and for all.

losthorizon · 22-01-2013 09:54PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Boards isn't realistic of the population as a whole but it is representative of the young urban college educated mostly male class who are the policy makers of the future.

The countrys ****ed. I'm leaving.

SillyIrish · 22-01-2013 10:09PM

A united ireland definitely,stop all this division malarky and just get the country the way it should be

Augmerson · 22-01-2013 10:24PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This poll is basically asking me would I rubber-stamp and endorse an injustice against my ancestors by continuing to divide the Irish people in the 6 counties from the rest of the Irish people in the 26 counties. Well no, I would not endorse it and would vote for reunification.

The majority of the people of this island in 1918 voted for a party which put forward a republican agenda and the response of the British state was to ignore the vote; to prevent the Irish case being put forward at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 at a time when they were supposed to be keen on helping the freedom of small nations; to declare the Dáil illegal and subsequently partition the country in order to satisfy the demands of a minority in the north-east of the island against the wishes of the overall majority of the island; so I'm not sure why any Irish person would give the seal of approval to this action.

Even if one is of the view that partition was a reasonable solution to the difficulties, the manner in which it was conducted was not reasonable. As J.J. Lee points out, there were more Catholics to Protestants in Tyrone and Fermanagh than there were Protestants to Catholics in Armagh and Derry. The entire purpose of partition was to give a parliament to a people that had hitherto threatened to oppose democracy through violence in order to get their way.

In my view it was a terrible moment in history that set the island up for a century of bitterness and hostility and I would gladly love to have my say in undoing it once and for all.

Very well put.

Iwasfrozen · 22-01-2013 10:34PM

Crooked Jack wrote: »

Well I refute it, ergo it is not irrefutable. Ireland is Ireland. 26 counties can no more claim the name than cork and Kerry could club together and decide they are Ireland. And I mentioned the killings to show that all of Ireland has issues with violence. The south is not some bastion of peace and love and the north a violent cesspit threatening to spill across the border. The whole country faces the same problems and the best way to face them is together.

You can refute it but you'd be wrong. Ireland is the name of this state. Northern Ireland is one of four home countries of the UK, a foreign state.

Article 4 constitution wrote:

The name of the State is Éire, or, in the English language, Ireland.

Funnily enough the wording of the paragraph means Éire is the official name in every language except English. So when the Irish government was complaining about the British using the name Éire for Ireland the British could have just drawn up the agreement in French and continued to use Éire.

shootie · 22-01-2013 10:40PM

No.

It would open up a massive can of worms. Ever since the formation of the free state that question has caused more harm than good. It's best to move on and just live and let live. That said, I bet Westminster would love to cut NI loose.

Solair · 22-01-2013 10:42PM

gurramok wrote: »

Any up to date figures? Since Cameron came to power, he has set deep cutbacks to all parts of UK. NI is enduring £4bn in spending cuts from 2010 to 2014.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11590420

Surely that £4bn reduction will reduce that £7bn deficit?

BBC 2011 puts the NI deficit at £9 billion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-14845296

There are a few stark quotes too:

"While there are just over 60,000 people claiming Job Seekers Allowance, there are more than 180,000 people on Disability Living Allowance - that's one in ten of the population"

"Figures for 2011 reveal more than 50,000 on Incapacity Benefit and around 260,000 people receiving a mixture of these disability related benefit payments."

Doesn't sound like the actual unemployment stats and reality are necessarily connected at all if that % of the population is claiming disability allowances/benefits.

maithanfear · 22-01-2013 10:46PM

I say shame on the people who say 'we couldn't afford it'. There's a moral obligation to repeal partition. Think of all the Irish people who died under British rule. It would do those people injustice to vote any other way.

If there was a referendum tomorrow - how would you vote?

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