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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)
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Weathercheck wrote: »ECM= Rampede alert, such an amazingly feed.
Would this Chart bring snow for south east?0 -
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Weathercheck wrote: »240hr ECM chart is the best i have ever seen. Simple as. Incredible :O
I would LOVE to see that run go on !0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »The downgrades start here.
Have to keep in mind that it is deep FI and the chances of that coming off like that are very slim.
But just for entertainment value, its great.
Boo! Too soon! Give us an hour or two to drool before we get all realistic and stuff.
That run is insane, but it's still possible!0 -
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Weathercheck wrote: »ECM= Rampede alert, such an amazingly feed.
I am aware that there is more than just pressure systems that contribute to cold easterlies winds and snow in Ireland... but I'm trying to make sense of what is the main or contributing pressure systems that is forecast to drive these easterly winds.
Here is my Knowledge..
High pressure rotate CW and Low pressure CCW in the northern hemisphere??
High pressure systems are stable? Low pressure are unstable?
Correct me if I am wrong. The high pressure all the way from the atlantic up to scandinavia is driving the winds westerly inside the artic circle? The low pressure in South eastern Europe is driving its winds CCW easterly toward us.
If I am on on the right track!! Would we benifit with a more intensified Euro low or scandi high for more precipitation when and if these charts happen.0 -
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Just to point out...There is no support on the other models for anything as extreme as that, and it's a long way off making it even less likely to look like that in the end.
I just fear people will get very excited and then in the morning will be very let down again.
Having said that though, probably the best ECM FI I've ever seen, hard not to react.
Edit : Let's see how the ECM ensembles look later.0 -
no, seriously, this is the model thread, anything beyond +72 is irrelevant - ramping and FI polluting all over the place. if those +240s came off it would lead to weather probably not seen in Ireland for centuries which leads to appropriately long odds.
I fear MT may have created a monster this morning
Centuries? No way. 1987 was more severe than what the ECM FI is showing.
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maquiladora wrote: »Just to point out...There is no support on the other models for anything as extreme as that, and it's a long way off making it even less likely to look like that in the end.
I just fear people will get very excited and then in the morning will be very let down again.
Having said that though, probably the best ECM FI I've ever seen, hard not to react.
Edit : Let's see how the ECM ensembles look later.
What time are the ECMs out at later?0 -
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People going a bit over the top, its one run with little support over a week away, impressive to look at but more suited to the FI thread considering how unlikely it is to develop like thatI am aware that there is more than just pressure systems that contribute to cold easterlies winds and snow in Ireland... but I'm trying to make sense of what is the main or contributing pressure systems that is forecast to drive these easterly winds.
Here is my Knowledge..
High pressure rotate CW and Low pressure CCW in the northern hemisphere??
High pressure systems are stable? Low pressure are unstable?
Correct me if I am wrong. The high pressure all the way from the atlantic up to scandinavia is driving the winds westerly inside the artic circle? The low pressure in South eastern Europe is driving its winds CCW easterly toward us.
If I am on on the right track!! Would we benifit with a more intensified Euro low or scandi high for more precipitation when and if these charts happen.
You're pretty much spot on there, a quick and crudely drawn idea of the air flow, cold air being sourced from deep inside Russia (or USSR as meteociel would lead us to believe)
For maximum precipitation, low pressure all the way, ideally situated somewhere around the Bay of Biscay0
This discussion has been closed.
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