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Betfair-to lay or not to lay?

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  • 17-11-2012 4:29pm
    #1
    paddymayoman
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭


    I was thinking of setting up a betfair account, I was wondering if anyone here makes any profit from laying horses, as in the last week I've found it easy enough to pick losers (especially when (I've backed them to win). My logic would be to pick a few horses that I think will win and then lay a different horse. Similar to the 10-10,000 challenges I would try and make a small profit (laying at odds of a liability of 8.0,9.0 or 10.0,etc.) each time to make a decent bankroll. Has anyone any tips or traps I should avoid when laying horses? Thanks in advance.


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    #2
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    It's a great idea. if you think a horse is too short, then lay. Same with football teams etc. It's a lot easier to pick a loser than pick a winner. Just be careful with some big priced lays, as you can leave yourself open to a lot of liabilities.

    But still, laying should by rights be as popular as backing. It's a far better idea than the draw no bet and double chance stuff you see a lot of people doing. Great opportunities with horses too as some are criminally short at times


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    #3
    paddymayoman
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭paddymayoman


    Cheers Hulk Hands, had a feeling Simenon wasn't going to win today at 1/3. There a few days ago Ruby Walsh lost on a 1/3 and AP McCoy lost on a 2/5, I think backing short price favourites is a bad idea, however, I would expect hurricane Fly to win tomorrow so I would lay Go Native the second favourite (should be a liability of 3.0-5.0). I'll try it out I think as literally anything can happen in gambling, just look at Sweden's comeback against Germany 4-0 down to draw 4-4 and Voler la Vedette's loss at 1/7 last weekend!


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    #4
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Keep an eye on some of the inplay prices as sometimes there's an overreaction. I layed Reading after they went 4-0 to Arsenal a few weeks ago at 1/50. I have friends who paid for a holiday by laying Adam Scott at 1/33 in the British Open. Just don't be laying things for the sake of it. If you think Go Native is too short tomorrow, then by all means lay. But if you are just laying because you think HF will win, you'd be better served backing HF at 4/6


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    #5
    paddymayoman
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭paddymayoman


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Keep an eye on some of the inplay prices as sometimes there's an overreaction. I layed Reading after they went 4-0 to Arsenal a few weeks ago at 1/50. I have friends who paid for a holiday by laying Adam Scott at 1/33 in the British Open. Just don't be laying things for the sake of it. If you think Go Native is too short tomorrow, then by all means lay. But if you are just laying because you think HF will win, you'd be better served backing HF at 4/6
    Nice one with the Reading bet, hope you had a euro or two on it! Cheers for the tip about Hurricane Fly, makes more sense to back at 1.50 than lay at 4.60! Far better value!


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    #6
    Bluetonic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,588 ✭✭✭Bluetonic


    paddymayoman wrote: »
    Nice one with the Reading bet, hope you had a euro or two on it! Cheers for the tip about Hurricane Fly, makes more sense to back at 1.50 than lay at 4.60! Far better value!

    No offence but if you couldn't work that out for yourself I'd play for fun money for a while.


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    #7
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    paddymayoman wrote: »
    I was thinking of setting up a betfair account, I was wondering if anyone here makes any profit from laying horses, as in the last week I've found it easy enough to pick losers (especially when (I've backed them to win). My logic would be to pick a few horses that I think will win and then lay a different horse. Similar to the 10-10,000 challenges I would try and make a small profit (laying at odds of a liability of 8.0,9.0 or 10.0,etc.) each time to make a decent bankroll. Has anyone any tips or traps I should avoid when laying horses? Thanks in advance.


    I lay quite a few, dabbled in it for years and have sort of settled on it now for the last while exclusively (3 to 4 months which isn't too long admittedly but I don't intend stopping anytime soon and put lots of time into it before that 3/4 months of real laying commenced).

    Tips I would offer
    - maximum liability per lay not to exceed 5% of your available balance
    - I would be very very very uninclined to lay anything at 8.0, 9.0 or 10.0 etc unless the highstreet prices is exactly the same.
    - I'd sooner lay short priced horses I think will win rather than lay long prices ones I think will lose (as long as the shorties are underpriced imo)

    Profits are slow and you can lose 2/3 weeks worth of profit in a few hours when laying, that's the way it is, if that's not for you than you have no chance of sticking with it. I lost over a month's profit in one afternoon.

    I layed 600 horses from 13Aug to 29Oct with a starting balance of €190 (it should have been €400 but I got away with it) and made €693 after commission, 192 of the 600 won the race.

    It can be incredibly tough to lay horses consistently especially when there's a 14/1 yoke that you reckon is value at 14/1 and it's 18.0 ish + on Betfair, but as Barney Curley maintains, you can't do both :)


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    #8
    Motivator
    Registered Users Posts: 2,741 ✭✭✭Motivator


    The emergence of Betfair has turned a lot of people into layers rather than backers. Its a great idea I think & I find it has enhanced my knowledge of gambling a huge amount. Up until about 4 years ago I was a favourite backer. It didn't matter what the horse was I would back it, I was trying to study form & all that stuff but I just couldn't ever see past a favourite. It didn't matter whether it was a 7/1 favourite in a 26 runner handicap or a 1/14 shot in a 3 horse race. If it was the jolly I was on. I'm 100% serious when I say this, I wasn't losing too much money doing what I was doing. Because I never varied my bets I was sure to catch at least 1 or 2 favs in a row across the cards. My stake was €40 per race & it never varied. No matter what price the horse was the bet was €40 no more, no less. Over the course of 2 years I'd say I lost 3k which is peanuts considering what I was at. Crazy stuff altogether honestly I will warn people about backing favourites until the day I die. I eventually had an unlucky streak which was always going to happen & 1 day it hit hard because it was the day I decided to up my stake to €150 a race. I had come into a few quid & decided to double it or even treble it so I waited for a Saturday day with 7 meetings, I was down about 4k by the end of the day. Not one favourite won on the day it was ridiculous stuff, one in a million stuff but I knew then & there that was that.

    I set up a Betfair account about a week later, deposited €500 & started laying favs & I haven't looked back since. I've developed a disciplined attitude nowadays & that is the golden rule when laying horses. If you haven't got discipline or patience then you simply won't make any money from laying. I've become an expert at getting favs beaten. Before when I was backing, I didn't have an opinion on horses because I was all about the favs. Nowadays because I'm looking at 10 other runners in an 11 horse race I find it easier to find reasons why 1 of those 10 will beat the favourite, or in other words - why the favourite will beat 9 of those other runners but won't beat the 10th. I find it much easier to pick holes in a favourite nowadays i.e. he's giving too much weight away to the 2nd fav etc. etc. Trust me it is much easier to find a reason for a favourite to be beaten than it is to find a reason why he'll win. Obviously there's favs that just jump off the page & look a winner all over but there's also horses where they are just ridiculously short & are crying out to be taken on. I turn a steady (not huge profit) every month & my system will never vary, if it does then its time to close the account because what I have is working for me & I see no reason ever to change it. I believe that as my knowledge of the sport increases then my stakes can increase, but for now the name of the game is not making huge profits its being disciplined enough not to clean my account by getting too brave with a generously priced 4/1 favourite.


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    #9
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What's your strike rate if you don't mind me asking ?


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    #10
    bluecode
    Closed Accounts Posts: 794 ✭✭✭bluecode


    Roverjames and motivator sum it up well. Laying seems easy, after all picking losers seems to come naturally to most of us.:( But the nature of laying is such that the profits are small and easily wiped out by a couple of winners. This is what happened to me. If it was easy everyone would doing it.

    Motivator, I don't know if you thought of this but haven't you missed something? You learned the lesson that you basically cannot make a profit backing favourites and that laying them is more profitable. If you can now spot a false favourite and lay it. Then you can also see which horses are most likely to beat it. Surely they are worth a small bet. This is how many professionals make their living. Getting favourites beaten.

    Have you ever considered that?


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    #11
    Motivator
    Registered Users Posts: 2,741 ✭✭✭Motivator


    bluecode wrote: »
    Roverjames and motivator sum it up well. Laying seems easy, after all picking losers seems to come naturally to most of us.:( But the nature of laying is such that the profits are small and easily wiped out by a couple of winners. This is what happened to me. If it was easy everyone would doing it.

    Motivator, I don't know if you thought of this but haven't you missed something? You learned the lesson that you basically cannot make a profit backing favourites and that laying them is more profitable. If you can now spot a false favourite and lay it. Then you can also see which horses are most likely to beat it. Surely they are worth a small bet. This is how many professionals make their living. Getting favourites beaten.

    Have you ever considered that?

    Yes obviously I have thought about it, but its not disciplined in my view. I'd rather have 10 horses running against 1 than 1 running against 10. I can't bring myself to go backing horses again after what happened a couple of years ago. I'm still young & I'm still learning but I will never back a horse again, some seem to find it funny but I feel I have more control when laying horses than backing them.

    RoverJames I don't record any bets on an Excel spreadsheet. What I do is get the papers every morning, watch ATR, watch The Morning Line etc. I'm signed up to the RUK & ATR websites & I can watch any horses previous run so usually on a Friday night I will look at the form, past runs & prices of favourites for the next day. I will then see what horses I'm willing to lay & for how much I will lay them for. Now once I make my mind up Now don't get me wrong, its a fairly tedius task but I love it I find it very interesting & its a great sense of achievement getting a 1/2 shot beaten.

    Around 12 o' Clock each day I will know exactly what horses I will be laying. Regardless of what price they go off at at 5 o clock I will be laying them. Its a fairly good system I think but it requires a huge amount of patience & discipline. But to answer your question I've made about 8k since September. Its a very hard earned 8k because I spend so much time sitting at a computer 7 days a week.


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    #12
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Id be very different, price of the horse is my main criteria :)
    You can download your last 3 months activity from betfair into excel if you wanted to analyse your bet history :)


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    #13
    bluecode
    Closed Accounts Posts: 794 ✭✭✭bluecode


    Well whatever works for you, motivator. But you're right discipline is everything. Separate emotion from the bet or lay. I used to note down every bet in a notebook and kept a running total of profit and loss. It was a good practice, now of course you can use a computer or even a phone.

    Don't do it anymore as I don't bet too seriously now. Although I might get back into as I have the time of late. You do need to put in the hours if you want to make money out of it. Just like any 'job.'

    I'm with RoverJames, price is everything. The more experience I get the higher the prices I look for. I won at 7/1 lately but still felt it was too short!


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    #14
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    paddymayoman wrote: »
    I was thinking of setting up a betfair account, I was wondering if anyone here makes any profit from laying horses, as in the last week I've found it easy enough to pick losers (especially when (I've backed them to win). My logic would be to pick a few horses that I think will win and then lay a different horse. Similar to the 10-10,000 challenges I would try and make a small profit (laying at odds of a liability of 8.0,9.0 or 10.0,etc.) each time to make a decent bankroll. Has anyone any tips or traps I should avoid when laying horses? Thanks in advance.

    Setting up a Betfair account is a great idea , When someone tells you with Betfair you can lay - back a horse not to win - people for some reason think its amazing and sure money . Laying is the same as backing if you lay a horse at 10/1 you are essentially backing every other horse in the race at 1/10 . If you don;t have an edge ( inside information , knowledge , luck etc ) you are laying at very close to true probability so you will over time find that you make no profit and actually make a loss because of comission (unless you have an edge)

    Another thing to think about is Betfair don't do Best odds gauranteed so you lay a horse at 10/1 and the horse shortens to 7/1 you are still only getting 1/10 on the rest of the field instead of 1/7 .

    A friend of mine got into Betfair a while ago and he lays everything , he was talking to me about laying Southampton at 10/1 against liverpool next week laying 100 on it , i said why don't you back 1000 on double chance liverpool at Bwin i think it was , I was just telling him to save comission but he said " no the odds are ****e .!

    I've seen many people deposit 100's and 1000's into Betfair saying im going to pick losers and it shouldn't be too hard , trust me nearly all people i've seen do it have gone broke .


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    #15
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Very decent post, due to the bigger odds and deductions in the form of commission and premium charges only a minority of people will have a decent crack off laying, I reckon the premium charge has made trading increasingly unviable for people intent on turning a regular profit that's proportionate to their time and money investment. The more people who use betfair solely as an enhanced odds online bookmakers the better it is for layers :)


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    #16
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    I wouldn't worry about the premium charge at Betfair , only a small percentage of players have to ever think about it , there are certain criteria that have to be met before you become eligible , the most notable two are 1) you have to be in profit of over 250k on your account and 2) you have to have bet on over 250 different markets , even then you may not be eligible for the charge . If you ever get to this fortunate position you will in that time have learned of ways to avoid it . Its not something the average punter has to worry about .


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    #17
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Any successful trader will get stung with the 20 per cent charge though :) they'll only be paying 5 per cent max on their gross as a successful trader so its a real concern before you get anywhere near the 250k lifetime profits, the 250 markets is again to snare traders. If betfair cotton on to any premium charge avoidance tactics they can just shut you down :)


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    #18
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Any successful trader will get stung with the 20 per cent charge though :) they'll only be paying 5 per cent max on their gross as a successful trader so its a real concern before you get anywhere near the 250k lifetime profits, the 250 markets is again to snare traders. If betfair cotton on to any premium charge avoidance tactics they can just shut you down :)

    Yeah but you have to make 250k profit before your considered , there are avoidance tactics that are not going to annoy betfair , for example to ride out the variance you can back at bookmakers and lay on Betfair account that is in profit this will help the variance on the account , there are lots of other ways and means some are very complex and some are as simple as opening an account in your wife/brother/sisters name whatever it may be.


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    #19
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You have to make 250k lifetime profit before being considered for the 40 to 60 per cent premium charge, to be hit by the 20 per cent charge you don't :)
    To back at a bookies and lay on betfair can increase your pc liabilities, you can't be sure get it right most of the time, that's inherent with gambling :) and of course the disparity in prices that generally arises is also a huge factor.
    Given you seem to be oblivious to the qualifying criteria for the 20 per cent charge if not the lower charge in itself it seems quite likely your views on pc charge avoidance are perhaps less than watertight :)


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    #20
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    RoverJames wrote: »
    You have to make 250k lifetime profit before being considered for the 40 to 60 per cent premium charge, to be hit by the 20 per cent charge you don't :)
    To back at a bookies and lay on betfair can increase your pc liabilities, you can't be sure get it right most of the time, that's inherent with gambling :) and of course the disparity in prices that generally arises is also a huge factor.
    Given you seem to be oblivious to the qualifying criteria for the 20 per cent charge if not the lower charge in itself it seems quite likely your views on pc charge avoidance are perhaps less than watertight :)

    I am not up to date with the charges since the change last year , its something that never effects me because I am taking value elsewhere and laying the excess on Betair , my Betfair account is always massively down which suits me .

    I am a member of a few private gambling forums and NOBODY pays the premium charge there are ways they discuss to get around it and not pay , there are ways around these things , if you are laying off value bets over time you are most likely to be well down at Betfair .


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    #21
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ... The 20 per cent premium charge was the initial one, the 40 to 60 per cent charge came later with the 250k gross profit qualifier.

    As I said, its mainly traders, not gamblers that get hit by it. Any one actually making money from actual gambling activities on betfair quite likely pay enough commission anyway, as you no doubt know losing bets implied commission are also included.

    The premium charge was introduced as successful traders were paying under 5 per cent commission gross :)


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    #22
    SRFC
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    3% of betfair accounts are successfull lads if laying was easy we'd all be millionaires



    believe me you will hit an all mighty run of laying winner after winner its not a case of if its a case of when and your account will be cleaned out its too hard to make serious money with the fact your laying prices much bigger than the bookies they have a nice percentage on their book plus commission will start to hurt you


    Its all well and good laying favs blindly because i quoute someone on pg1 said ''ruby an mccoy got beaten on a 2/5 yesterday'' yesterdays result has nothing to do with todays fav you're laying


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    #23
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SRFC wrote: »
    3% of betfair accounts are successfull lads if laying was easy we'd all be millionaires



    believe me you will hit an all mighty run of laying winner after winner its not a case of if its a case of when and your account will be cleaned out its too hard to make serious money with the fact your laying prices much bigger than the bookies they have a nice percentage on their book plus commission will start to hurt you..............

    I get the impression that's not solely directed at the OP so I'll reply.

    With an appropriate staking plan to ensure your liability per lay is 3% of your betting bank you can ensure the chances of having your account cleaned are very very very small.

    Many of us don't want to earn serious money, a few grand a year is a nice lash of extra cash returned from a hobby :)

    The bookies nice percentage combined with plenty of people backing favs on betfair actually makes layinh short priced horses on Betfair condusive to being potentially profitable as the difference in betfair price (including commission) and the bookies price can often be within that nice bookies percentage you mention :)

    As mentioned though you can't lay them blind and you must have a fair idea what you're at, I don't lay horses for a living or to make serious money, I go to work for that.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=81833824


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    #24
    Wacker The Attacker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,473 ✭✭✭Wacker The Attacker


    I wish I layed the Hawks at the start of the 4th quarter against the cavaliers last night.


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    #25
    Wacker The Attacker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,473 ✭✭✭Wacker The Attacker


    SRFC wrote: »
    3% of betfair accounts are successfull lads if laying was easy we'd all be millionaires



    believe me you will hit an all mighty run of laying winner after winner its not a case of if its a case of when and your account will be cleaned out its too hard to make serious money with the fact your laying prices much bigger than the bookies they have a nice percentage on their book plus commission will start to hurt you


    Its all well and good laying favs blindly because i quoute someone on pg1 said ''ruby an mccoy got beaten on a 2/5 yesterday'' yesterdays result has nothing to do with todays fav you're laying


    I back favourites and lay them in the event they take the lead. (football). Probably shooting myself in the foot in a sense but it guarantees break even when they do score first.

    The problem with this particular strategy is that there is no escape if they go behind or dont score at all.

    Isnt the key to successful laying that you need to lay at lower odds then you backed at. Even then you need to be betting substantial three or four figure sums to cover fees and commissions and make a decent profit.

    Plausible if you are betting ante post but not always possible on your run of the mill everyday race meetings


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    #26
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wacker The Attacker wrote: »
    ............

    Isnt the key to successful laying that you need to lay at lower odds then you backed at. Even then you need to be betting substantial three or four figure sums to cover fees and commissions and make a decent profit................


    Key to successful laying is to lay at odds less than the actual likelyhood of the horse winning, lay enough of them and you are guaranteed profit, in fairness there's no shortage of them running every day, they can be hard to spot though :)

    You've described one of the keys to successful trading :)

    I'd class a few hundred a month as a decent profit from anyone who works full time at something else and only lays as a pastime, however you are correct in so far as to make that few hundred you'd have to take €6k+ in bets off punters on Betfair over a longterm average :)


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