My Portfolio

hmmm · 21-09-2012 09:33PM

Pa Dee wrote: »

You might as well talk to the wall...it's an interesting thread to observe investor behaviour though

This belongs in the gambling forum. Just because he is buying equities does not make it "investing", he thinks he knows which rocks in Wakawakastan hold oil and gas.

Pa Dee · 21-09-2012 10:41PM

ixus wrote: »

I'll make my QE/Oil comments on your new thread.

Regarding your portfolio turbo, I'd have serious reservations over your management of it. You made some serious gains early on and that is to be commended. But, to go from +15K to sub 5K is poor managment.

This is where a plan would have come in best. Simply saying, I'm in for the long haul, or this or that is undervalued isn't a plan. You make some comments about certain holdings being undervalued but, did you ever think they were overvalued when they were performing so strongly?

There's a saying; "always take windall profits".

I'd suggest a strategy whereby you took a percentage of profits for every X amount you made and reduce your position by a percentage by every X amount you lost.

What I see potentially happening here is your account going into the negative and you refusing to take the loss because of the position you were once in, or adding on to your losers. It is a very common occurrence in trading.

Anyway, something to think about.

This ^^^^^^ from 6 months ago.....

turbobaby · 22-09-2012 12:45PM

I welcome the negative comments, I really do, but I have some responses for those hit and run commentators who clearly have not read the entire thread...

From day one I have said it is an extremely high risk portfolio.

I have also said that I am not investing, I am speculating.

I have humbly described myself as a bottom feeder and in no way try to portray that I am an expert.

This is an anonymous forum, where people can open themselves up to the world without fear of tarnishing their real world reputation. Therefore I embrace any criticism from posters who I have respect for and at the same time easily ignore the likes of Pa Dee who has absolutely nothing constructive to add.

I am currently pursuing a speculation strategy which is almost purely event driven. I have hit duster after duster and yet I am only 60% down. The potential of my three stocks is ridiculously good, but the risk of further failure is also very high. I don't think the back seat drivers here fully understand what a court ruling, mill permit or oil discovery will do to my portfolio.

Posters on here should familiarise themselves with the distinct differences between investing, speculating and gambling before making disrespectful comments.

Pa Dee · 22-09-2012 12:57PM

turbobaby wrote: »

I welcome the negative comments, I really do, but I have some responses for those hit and run commentators who clearly have not read the entire thread...

From day one I have said it is an extremely high risk portfolio.

I have also said that I am not investing, I am speculating.

I have humbly described myself as a bottom feeder and in no way try to portray that I am an expert.

This is an anonymous forum, where people can open themselves up to the world without fear of tarnishing their real world reputation. Therefore I embrace any criticism from posters who I have respect for and at the same time easily ignore the likes of Pa Dee who has absolutely nothing constructive to add.

I am currently pursuing a speculation strategy which is almost purely event driven. I have hit duster after duster and yet I am only 60% down. The potential of my three stocks is ridiculously good, but the risk of further failure is also very high. I don't think the back seat drivers here fully understand what a court ruling, mill permit or oil discovery will do to my portfolio.

Posters on here should familiarise themselves with the distinct differences between investing, speculating and gambling before making disrespectful comments.

Why bother with a thread when you completely ignore any advice? This "I'm investing" manta is nonsense

turbobaby · 22-09-2012 01:12PM

Pa Dee wrote: »

Why bother with a thread when you completely ignore any advice? This "I'm investing" manta is nonsense

You clearly have issues understanding my posts.

I said I welcome constructive comments from posters advising me, and ignore digs from clueless posters whom I have no respect for.

I said once again that I am not investing, I am speculating.

The primary purpose off this public thread is for my own record, to try to understand where I go wrong. I am trying to learn as I go along. One thing I have already learned is not to go from one company to another in search of a successful drill result, without sufficient research. I have also learned that the credibility of management is far more important than I first thought. What have you taught me? Nothing, except maybe further confirmation that there's plenty of posters who are more than happy to abuse those who put their neck on the line.

By all means make some constructive comments, but please do not pollute the thread with misinformed digs.

Pa Dee · 22-09-2012 03:19PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Pa Dee wrote: »

Why bother with a thread when you completely ignore any advice? This "I'm investing" manta is nonsense

You clearly have issues understanding my posts.

I said I welcome constructive comments from posters advising me, and ignore digs from clueless posters whom I have no respect for.

I said once again that I am not investing, I am speculating.

The primary purpose off this public thread is for my own record, to try to understand where I go wrong. I am trying to learn as I go along. One thing I have already learned is not to go from one company to another in search of a successful drill result, without sufficient research. I have also learned that the credibility of management is far more important than I first thought. What have you taught me? Nothing, except maybe further confirmation that there's plenty of posters who are more than happy to abuse those who put their neck on the line.

By all means make some constructive comments, but please do not pollute the thread with misinformed digs.

Please proceed with the thread by all means its a useful study in blinkered investment. As another poster pointed out months ago it's similar to other threads with people justifying house prices or boi shares on the long slide down.

turbobaby · 22-09-2012 05:34PM

hmmm wrote: »

This belongs in the gambling forum. Just because he is buying equities does not make it "investing", he thinks he knows which rocks in Wakawakastan hold oil and gas.

The two countries are Brazil and Namibia, although I suspect you were actually trying to be funny.

I don't think I know where to find oil, I have bought shares in an exploration company that do know where to find oil.

I suggest you look up the history of Marcio Mello and Milton Franke.

Grecco · 22-09-2012 07:01PM

Turbobaby PaDee and MrMatisse are only trying to rise you, don`t bother responding as its turning this thread into a stupid slag.
Would it be possible to get a Moderator to remove the last page of posts as they are not at all of any use here

ixus · 22-09-2012 07:19PM

I've deleted a few posts and left some up. The personal stuff has been deleted. I've left a few posts questioning the strategy in place because they are going to be asked over and over again based upon the performance.

I've voiced my own concerns on the strategy previously and don't have anything further to offer.

Turbobaby has been pretty good natured in the negative feedback and opened his strategies to discussion. Abusing him for this is not going to be tolerated.

This is a warning. It's bans from here on in for personal abuse.

turbobaby · 01-10-2012 04:31PM

HRT are now planning to farm out the blocks in the potentially oil bearing Arua cluster of the Solimoes which have yet to be drilled.

Rumours are that it will be Petrobras farming in, in return for an agreement to share their infrastructure with HRT. Very believable, especially considering the next round of bidding for Brazilian blocks will be in May 2013 and Marcio Mello is keen to buy!

In other rumours, Namibian drilling has been postponed until February/March

turbobaby · 02-10-2012 10:54AM

That's up to you to determine! You should have plenty of time to do your due diligence as the only remaining exploratory well left this year won't be finished till mid December and the farm out in Namibia won't be done till around then too I reckon.

Personally, CMC Metals is a better 'punt' right now.

Static M.e. · 03-10-2012 10:35AM

Hi turbobaby,

Just joined this thread now and read all the back posts. Thank you for sharing what you are doing. Hopefully it will work out well for you its very exciting to read.

Can I ask you what resources (software) or tools you are using to manage your portfolio?

Thanks

turbobaby · 03-10-2012 11:17AM

Thanks for your kind words Static.

I use Zignals.com, an Irish firm which gives a whole host of features with a free account.

Being a startup, they seem to be seriously understaffed as they have a backlog of stocks to add to their platform, including Red Emperor Resources, hence my lack of screenshots lately, so that's a bit disappointing.

Mr Sail, CMC rose very nicely yesterday on good volume. I hope you didn't sell your house to take a position there!

turbobaby · 14-10-2012 05:03PM

It should be an interesting week next week as there are strong rumours of a partnership being announced between HRT and Petrobras in the Solimoes to give HRT access to Petrobras' pipelines. That will be huge for HRT (depending on the terms of course)

Friday is the deadline for public comments regarding the reopening of the mill for CMC Metals. Whether we'll hear something on Friday I don't know, but surely the sp will rise in anticipation of what will be a company making permit. Bring it on!

turbobaby · 15-10-2012 06:44PM

The weekend rumours were indeed true! This morning we got confirmation of negotiations, up just shy of 10%, now we just got confirmation of the deal and a one hour suspension of trading.

Exciting times. Perhaps Pa Dee's personal abuse from a couple of weeks ago marked the bottom!

grange mac · 15-10-2012 07:01PM

Whats the portfoilio % gain/loss looking like now. You said you were havng isues getting upto date charts, have they fixed this for you yet...just want to compare to where you were last year...

turbobaby · 15-10-2012 07:17PM

I have been trudging along at around €20k having started at €50k and speculated half my portfolio on duster after duster around the world.

turbobaby · 16-10-2012 07:56AM

My 'obscure' oil explorer made it into my Twitter feed via Reuters Business today.

HRT Participações em Petróleo and its Anglo-Russian partner TNK-BP signed an accord with Brazil's state-led oil company Petrobras to draw up a plan to sell natural gas from their Amazon fields, HRT said on Monday.

The companies agreed to develop a plan to "monetize" HRT gas within 30 days and have six months to complete their work, HRT said in a securities filing. HRT, later in the day issued a separate statement to confirm the accord. Its shares rose as much as 10.5 percent.

......

Petrobras already operates natural gas and oil fields in the Solimoes basin and has the region's only natural gas pipeline. In September Mello said he is considering plans to build petrochemical plants and electricity generation facilities near HRT's fields in the Amazon.

So in 30 days we will have a plan for monitization and in 6 months HRT will likely move from being an explorer to an operator.

HRT will then be partnered with Petrobras, (market cap $150B) TNK-BP (market cap approx $30b) and their farm in partner for Namibia will also be a major producer.

This could be the beginning of HRT gaining back their credibility in the market.

The analysts had written off the Solimoes, perhaps even giving a negative valuation on it, as they did not believe Petrobras would share their Amazonian infrastructure with HRT.

With gas prices so high (major import from Bolivia) the political pressure on Petrobras was obviously high. Remember HRT's recent gas find was the largest ever onshore Brazil.

A nice rise of around 20% yesterday should stop the rot, but the market may wait another month to see the full details of the plan before getting stuck into HRT shares.

This progress will likely trigger three milestones set by TNK for HRT, meaning payments of 3x $50m once confirmed

With drills 10 and 11 targeting more gas (and oil) this could be the start of something beautiful!

The sale of HRT's Air Amazon is still going through final due diligence, and farm in negotiations for Namibia have been extended due to more seismic coming available.

A long road to recovery, but it looks like I am heading back in the right direction.

turbobaby · 23-10-2012 07:51AM

Just a quick update on HRT and CMB.

HRT has performed very nicely since the rumours of the collaboration with Petrobras surfaced. (currently up 30%)

I sold 10% of my shares on the way up ($1.20), but a little too soon, so I could switch them into CMB at (most at 12c) as I am supremely confident that CMB will get their mill permit.

There was a crazy price action on CMB yesterday. At one point it was down 18% on heavy volumes (in relative terms) but recovered in the afternoon to finish 18% up, albeit with a last minute trade worth about $100!

The remainder of my cash from the HRT sale went in at 11c but couldn't get matched so I sense games are being played. I cannot understand why as the volumes are so miserable.

The end of the public comment period came on Friday so we should hear something very soon regarding the acceptance of CMC's plan of operations.

As a reminder, they have:

-> approx $3m worth of unsold silver from their 2011 bulk sample,

-> a mill worth about €2m (when permitted) and a

-> 50% stake in a nearby gold mine which will produce about 30,000 oz per year. (if we take a very high cost to produce set at $1,200 per oz they would still make $7.5m)

As you can see, the granting of the permit will have a massive effect on the future of CMC Metals.

Grecco · 23-10-2012 09:23PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Just a quick update on HRT and CMB.

HRT has performed very nicely since the rumours of the collaboration with Petrobras surfaced. (currently up 30%)

I sold 10% of my shares on the way up ($1.20), but a little too soon, so I

Ah lad what are you doing selling a stock that's on the up, why not cut the one that's going down instead

turbobaby · 24-10-2012 09:44AM

Grecco wrote: »

Ah lad what are you doing selling a stock that's on the up, why not cut the one that's going down instead

Good advice and I know that that kind of trade is not the best idea, as with that strategy, in the long run, money will be continuously funnelled from the winners into the losers.

As you mentioned on your Minco thread the miners are still performing poorly and for me the sell off with CMC Metals presents an excellent opportunity to get a little extra exposure at a crucial point in the company's history.

I've read the Plan of Operations from front to back and can see no reasons why the permit won't be granted. However, this is the State of California so I am not counting any chickens!

turbobaby · 04-11-2012 02:10PM

I thought I would take a few minutes to write about CMB.V (CMC Metals) as it now represents 25% of my portfolio.

The next couple of weeks will be crucial for CMC and I will explain why.

At their already operational high grade gold mine (50% ownership), we will likely hear the final decision regarding the permitting of their 100% owned nearby mill. The permitted mill will be worth approx $2m but will be priceless to CMC as they will use it to process approx 100 tonnes per day from their own gold mine and other mines in the area.

Production is forecast to be about 32,000 oz gold per year. It's high grade (15-30 grammes per tonne) so costs will be low. 16,000 oz going to CMC. Taking current prices ($1,650) minus conservative costs ($800), we get pre tax revenue at $13.6m.

Elsewhere at their unbelievably high grade silver mine in Canada, they also own a mill (cost $1.8m), but this has yet to be permitted and unlikely to be in the near future. They also do not yet have a license to operate a mine. In the past two years they were permitted to take bulk samples for analysis and sale.

They have yet to sell 100k oz silver from the last bulk sample but my understanding is that this is being arranged as I type. Revenue from this sale will be between $2m to $3m. The bulk sample (1,700 tonnes) only takes one month to dig out of the ground. Costs are approx 25%.

It is also my understanding that CMC are being encouraged by the Yukon govt to apply for a mill and mine license and also an extension to the bulk sampling permit.

Even if they continued to simply take 2,500 tonnes per year and sell it as is, they could generate profit of just under $10m at current prices.

The cash coming from the silver property will be pumped into the gold mine to increase production.

Both mills in operation would obviously be a bonus, but the success of CMC is not dependent on them, as the ore can be processed elsewhere.

In 2013 it is very likely that CMC will produce:
350k oz silver ($10.5m revenue) and
16k oz gold ($26.4m revenue).

The market cap of CMC Metals is: $6.36m

arrowloopboy · 10-11-2012 10:09AM

Is this a Demo acc ?,or have you actually lost 30 grand for the year ?

arrowloopboy · 10-11-2012 10:45AM

Plucky Devil wrote: »

The dope looks to have lost real cash despite all the advice he received

I wouldn't call him a dope Plucky Devil,any of us can loose money,and its not the 30k that would bodder me either,its the fact that it represents 60% of his acc.Fair play to him for posting his loosing acc,most guys would get embarassed and stop.
He just needs to learn that capital preservation is probably most important thing in trading along with m/m. If you blow your coco,no matter how sexy a trade you see,you won't be able to exploit it.
Is it just v.high risk exploration/mining stocks he's trading ?and if so,WHY:rolleyes:.
I see this chap is also fairly fond of horse racing/soccer gambling,which is a mugs/fools game,maybe thats why he's trading/gambling high risk stocks.

This isn't a personal attack on TB,but if its a real acc,it would be a shame to blow it up.

turbobaby · 10-11-2012 12:48PM

Thanks for your comments Arrow. Plucky Devil, I'd rather you keep the non constructive feedback to yourself.

I have said time and again that these stocks picks are highly volatile and it will only take one successful drill (HRT), one mill permit (CMB) or one arbitration finding (OXS) to send my portfolio flying. At that point the personal abuse will be gone and I will be receiving private messages again!

Losing 60% with a diversified portfolio of less risky stocks would be more worrying, however give the nature of these event driven stocks I have picked, I am not too worried.

I played the game badly earlier this year, jumping from one high risk stock to another as I had too much spare time on my hands and was reading about 'the next big thing'. That was a lesson learned.

I will do my best to get a screen shot up today to show my performance to date.

As you said arrow, others are losing money and hiding it from public view!

arrowloopboy · 10-11-2012 01:03PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Thanks for your comments Arrow. Plucky Devil, I'd rather you keep the non constructive feedback to yourself.

I have said time and again that these stocks picks are highly volatile and it will only take one successful drill (HRT), one mill permit (CMB) or one arbitration finding (OXS) to send my portfolio flying. At that point the personal abuse will be gone and I will be receiving private messages again!

Losing 60% with a diversified portfolio of less risky stocks would be more worrying, however give the nature of these event driven stocks I have picked, I am not too worried.

I played the game badly earlier this year, jumping from one high risk stock to another as I had too much spare time on my hands and was reading about 'the next big thing'. That was a lesson learned.

I know your not too worried,but if you blow your acc,no matter what pops up,you wont be able to trade it at any real volume,are you trading these via a spread ?,do you use a s/l,what % of your acc per trade ?what i'm trying to determin is ,is this a structured well tested stratagy with a posative r ratio ?
Dont take any of this the wrong way Turbo,i'm not trying to take the piss,its far too easy to come on here and just knock somebody,behind a screen.
Let me know answers to above,

Regards,

Arrow.

P.s,you said you were looking for 100%,and maybe thats why all the volatile trades,100% is not at all impossible actively trading safe ftse 350 shares or the like.

I will do my best to get a screen shot up today to show my performance to date.

As you said arrow, others are losing money and hiding it from public view!

...

arrowloopboy · 10-11-2012 01:09PM

Lasr message is mixed into the above message:o.

turbobaby · 10-11-2012 01:19PM

Thanks for your comments Arrow. This is exactly the reason I set up this thread.

You should edit the post make it easier to read, thanks. There's no need to quote my post as yours comes directly after it.

I am not using stop loses, just a standard buy and hold. You will see from my posts that I have speculated in my current three shares because of the three items I mentioned in the last post (Drilling, permitting and arbitration). It's a totally different approach to day trading FTSE 350 stocks, which I have no desire to get involved in.

I wont be closing my position in any of these until these events occur, good or bad. That means volatility while waiting (usually to the downside!).

Yesterday HRT and CMC Metals were up 10% and 18% respectively so you can see how volatile they are. I don't have the ability or discipline to day trade so prefer they buy and hold approach.

arrowloopboy · 10-11-2012 01:29PM

Why no interest in the ftse350 (or simular)?,i'm not on about day trading ,just actively trading,an hour in the evening or so ,i just mean ,knowing what your stocks are worth from week to week,unlike some people that blindly buy and hold/forget about:D.
Are you spread betting ?

turbobaby · 10-11-2012 01:45PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Why no interest in the ftse350 (or simular)?,i'm not on about day trading ,just actively trading,an hour in the evening or so ,i just mean ,knowing what your stocks are worth from week to week,unlike some people that blindly buy and hold/forget about:D.
Are you spread betting ?

I suspect I have no interest in trading FTSE 350 shares, for the same reason you don't want to buy and hold junior mining and oil stocks. It's not something you feel comfortable with, and the same for me.

I did not blindly buy any of my three stocks or my physical silver, I did quite a lot of research actually!

I don't really care what my stocks are worth from week to week, only what they are worth after the "event" has occurred.

I didn't start speculating the day I started the thread so the period since I started is not a true reflection on my actual lifetime returns. That said, a fifty odd percent drop is not nice at all, but I am extremely confident that HRT and CMC Metals will multi-bag from here, and I have the patience to wait.

My Portfolio

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