Celtic Tiger Time Machine

pepe silvia · 17-09-2012 02:19PM #1

If you could go back to the early 2000's, would there be anyway to warn of the recession that would have made people listen and accept, that tighter regulation and sustainable growth was the way to go, instead of the boom that happened?

David mcwilliams and others supposedly weren't just guessing and knew the downturn was gonna happen, but they didn't seem to make any positive change.

As far as i can tell there was no way of stopping the property boom, but the government could have spent surpluses on investment in infrastructure and then we'd be in a better position obviously. But for that to happen the public would'nt have got the short term gains of lower taxes and higher pay and government would have been unpopular, this wasn't going to realistically happen. If you could go back as taoiseach you'd just be voted out.

So imo there is no way anyone could now go back in time and stop the recession. What do ye think?

Cavehill Red · 17-09-2012 02:21PM

Plenty of people tried to speak out, me among them. The country was being bribed by the crooks in Fianna Fail and didn't want to listen.

murphaph · 17-09-2012 02:27PM

pepe silvia wrote: »

As far as i can tell there was no way of stopping the property boom, but the government could have spent surpluses on investment in infrastructure and then we'd be in a better position obviously. But for that to happen the public would'nt have got the short term gains of lower taxes and higher pay and government would have been unpopular, this wasn't going to realistically happen. If you could go back as taoiseach you'd just be voted out.

If this is true, then the country deserves everything it got. We'll never know, because FF didn't try to explain it to the electorate that not reducing the 48% top rate would have been good as we could have built up our infrastructure etc. People wouldn't have missed what they never had, but they'd have welcomed the infrastructure all the same, so not so sure that the government of the day would have been dumped out for failing to deliver tax cuts tbh.

pepe silvia · 17-09-2012 02:45PM

murphaph wrote: »

If this is true, then the country deserves everything it got. We'll never know, because FF didn't try to explain it to the electorate that not reducing the 48% top rate would have been good as we could have built up our infrastructure etc. People wouldn't have missed what they never had, but they'd have welcomed the infrastructure all the same, so not so sure that the government of the day would have been dumped out for failing to deliver tax cuts tbh.

You would have to assume that the opposition would have then made tax cuts as part of their election promises, which would naturally have got support from the public, cause everybody likes paying less tax. Then they'd get voted in.

So Cavehill, you spoke out but you didn't do enough to change anything. If you could go go back now would you do more?

OMD · 17-09-2012 02:50PM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Plenty of people tried to speak out, me among them. The country was being bribed by the crooks in Fianna Fail and didn't want to listen.

What did you say 12 years ago and to whom did you say it? What did you do over the next 6 years to prosper from your knowledge and then more recently to protect yourself from the oncoming recession over the next 3

bbsrs · 17-09-2012 03:22PM

Most normal people aren't equipped with the knowledge with regard to what controls property prices , regulates inflation and balances a countrys budget while providing the services that a country requires to function . That's why we have government because they are supposed to know (or at least their high paid advisors should know) and work in the best interest of the country. People need leadership and guidance unfortunately the culture of greed and a quick easy buck sucked alot of those with some spare cash in and all went well until the bubble burst . Non functioning regulator (we all know the banks lent very irresponsibly) and a government elite mixing with the business elite led to policy geared more towards increasing revenue than running the country effectively ,efficiently and sustainably.

If the government had taken the time to explain to people why we couldn't cut taxes and fuel the property boom taking Japan or similar to show what could happen. We wouldn't have had to increase taxes just maintain at the level we were at. Instead time after time the Government kept spouting soft landing , we're different to what went before .

To answer the OP's question , no you couldn't stop the recession in ireland but it would have been a hell of lot less severe if the government had properly regulated the banks ,didn't incentivise building and explained to people why they couldn't have giveaway budgets timed nicely to coincide with elections.

Will this country run into the same issues again at sometime in the future , probably.

pepe silvia · 17-09-2012 03:44PM

bbsrs wrote: »

Most normal people aren't equipped with the knowledge with regard to what controls property prices , regulates inflation and balances a countrys budget while providing the services that a country requires to function . That's why we have government because they are supposed to know (or at least their high paid advisors should know) and work in the best interest of the country. People need leadership and guidance unfortunately the culture of greed and a quick easy buck sucked alot of those with some spare cash in and all went well until the bubble burst . Non functioning regulator (we all know the banks lent very irresponsibly) and a government elite mixing with the business elite led to policy geared more towards increasing revenue than running the country effectively ,efficiently and sustainably.

If the government had taken the time to explain to people why we couldn't cut taxes and fuel the property boom taking Japan or similar to show what could happen. We wouldn't have had to increase taxes just maintain at the level we were at. Instead time after time the Government kept spouting soft landing , we're different to what went before .

To answer the OP's question , no you couldn't stop the recession in ireland but it would have been a hell of lot less severe if the government had properly regulated the banks ,didn't incentivise building and explained to people why they couldn't have giveaway budgets timed nicely to coincide with elections.

Will this country run into the same issues again at sometime in the future , probably.

But do you really think a government who attempted those safe policies would have lasted past one term? They would be under serious pressure from opposition offering tax cuts and wage rises.

If they did successfully implement those tactics and there was still a recession they would surely have been voted out fairly lively aswell, they'd be seen as the people who let the good times pass them by only for a recession to occur anyway, so it would have taken some martyr to do it.

I don't think it was the peoples fault, just a fallacy in the political system.

bbsrs · 17-09-2012 03:59PM

pepe silvia wrote: »

But do you really think a government who attempted those safe policies would have lasted past one term? They would be under serious pressure from opposition offering tax cuts and wage rises.

If they did successfully implement those tactics and there was still a recession they would surely have been voted out fairly lively aswell, they'd be seen as the people who let the good times pass them by only for a recession to occur anyway, so it would have taken some martyr to do it.

I don't think it was the peoples fault, just a fallacy in the political system.

FF were in power for 20 years continuously with roughly 40% of the vote for all those years , if after the first 15 years in power they had used the budgets from 2002 to 2006 to maintain the standard of living people had and keep the economy running smoothly rather than boosting revenue through the constuction / property sector then I think they would have remained in government irrespective of the policies the opposition put forward . Greed took over.

ardmacha · 17-09-2012 04:15PM

Quite a bit of infrastructure was built and while more could have been built it would have been expensive and poor value. What was needed was putting money aside for a rainy day and for that to happen there needed to be a measure that the weather today was not typical.

pepe silvia · 17-09-2012 04:21PM

bbsrs wrote: »

FF were in power for 20 years continuously with roughly 40% of the vote for all those years , if after the first 15 years in power they had used the budgets from 2002 to 2006 to maintain the standard of living people had and keep the economy running smoothly rather than boosting revenue through the constuction / property sector then I think they would have remained in government irrespective of the policies the opposition put forward . Greed took over.

Where did they get greedy, surely their main aim was to stay in government, which they didn't manage.

bbsrs · 17-09-2012 05:15PM

pepe silvia wrote: »

Where did they get greedy, surely their main aim was to stay in government, which they didn't manage.

In my opinion they put their own interests and the interests of the banks and property sector above the interests of the Irish people. Their aim was to stay in government but they only took the advice they wanted to hear which was a massive mistake on their part but then again their nests were well feathered before they were voted out.

murphaph · 17-09-2012 05:25PM

pepe silvia wrote: »

But do you really think a government who attempted those safe policies would have lasted past one term? They would be under serious pressure from opposition offering tax cuts and wage rises.

We simply cannot know but it would have been nice to have one side offering one theory and the other side another. At least then we would have had a choice.

Cavehill Red · 17-09-2012 06:43PM

OMD wrote: »

What did you say 12 years ago and to whom did you say it? What did you do over the next 6 years to prosper from your knowledge and then more recently to protect yourself from the oncoming recession over the next 3

I'd rather not identify myself here. Speaking generically therefore, I did what I could do to make the general public as aware as possible that the property market was an unsustainable Ponzi scheme from 2001 or so onwards. I didn't prosper from my knowledge, except insofar that I didn't get caught out by the economic collapse and hence don't have negative equity. I also salted away savings in the form of gold and silver which came in handy when I too was affected by the wider downturn in the global economy.

Icepick · 17-09-2012 06:56PM

The gvt. could have prevented it - property tax, no tax breaks, not spending big money on expensive property, tight planning laws, bank regulation etc. But they represented their voters so it had to go awry.

Dannyboy83 · 17-09-2012 07:09PM

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/reprimand-for-german-envoy-over-his-coarse-irish-speech-1081773.html
THE German Embassy in Ireland has moved to defuse a diplomatic row after the German Ambassador described Ireland as 'coarse' and criticised our public service system.

Christian Pauls was given a firm diplomatic reprimand over the remarks which "talked down" Ireland to an 80-strong group of potential investors. He was given the verbal rap on the knuckles by the Department of Foreign Affairs' Secretary General, Dermot Gallagher, on the explicit instructions of Minister Dermot Ahern.

He was told bluntly last Thursday morning that his remarks at a function in Clontarf Castle in Dublin to visiting German industrialists were "inaccurate, misinformed and inappropriate at a public forum".

..

In his 15-minute speech the ambassador said:

- Ireland was a "coarse place".
- Junior ministers here earned more than the German Chancellor.
- Some 20pc of the population were public servants.
- Our "chaotic" hospital waiting lists would not be tolerated anywhere else.
- Wage demands were too high.
- Our immigration policy was wrong and we had learned nothing from Germany or the Nordic countries.

He also cited the doctors' rejection of €200,000 a year posts on the basis that this sum was "Mickey Mouse" money and referred to the former dominant position of the Catholic Church within the country.

His listeners, mainly members of the German Federation of Buying and Marketing groups, representing medium-sized businesses, loved his delivery.

One Irish man in the audience was Gay Mitchell MEP who said that if he had made the comments in the Dail he would have been accused of party political partisanship of a totally imbalanced nature.

murphaph · 17-09-2012 07:47PM

I distinctly remember Mr. Pauls comments and also the crass response of our FF government at the time. Mr: Pauls has been proven 100% correct of coarse [sic].

coolshannagh28 · 17-09-2012 07:51PM

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/reprimand-for-german-envoy-over-his-coarse-irish-speech-1081773.html
THE German Embassy in Ireland has moved to defuse a diplomatic row after the German Ambassador described Ireland as 'coarse' and criticised our public service system.

Christian Pauls was given a firm diplomatic reprimand over the remarks which "talked down" Ireland to an 80-strong group of potential investors. He was given the verbal rap on the knuckles by the Department of Foreign Affairs' Secretary General, Dermot Gallagher, on the explicit instructions of Minister Dermot Ahern.

He was told bluntly last Thursday morning that his remarks at a function in Clontarf Castle in Dublin to visiting German industrialists were "inaccurate, misinformed and inappropriate at a public forum".

..

In his 15-minute speech the ambassador said:

- Ireland was a "coarse place".
- Junior ministers here earned more than the German Chancellor.
- Some 20pc of the population were public servants.
- Our "chaotic" hospital waiting lists would not be tolerated anywhere else.
- Wage demands were too high.
- Our immigration policy was wrong and we had learned nothing from Germany or the Nordic countries.

He also cited the doctors' rejection of €200,000 a year posts on the basis that this sum was "Mickey Mouse" money and referred to the former dominant position of the Catholic Church within the country.

His listeners, mainly members of the German Federation of Buying and Marketing groups, representing medium-sized businesses, loved his delivery.

One Irish man in the audience was Gay Mitchell MEP who said that if he had made the comments in the Dail he would have been accused of party political partisanship of a totally imbalanced nature.

Has anything actually changed ?

Silentcorner · 17-09-2012 08:18PM

I dissagree with Enda Kenny and the late Brian Lenihan, it was not the fault of the people, frankly I found the two statements they made to be deeply insulting

It was the responsibility of the people who were paid ( extremely handsome wages/pensions) to be responsible for government policy

It was our poor political system that was the underlying problem, I truly believe the STV system promotes parish pump politics, which in turn only attracts the kind of person who can perform in this system, at party level policy is fed from the bottom up...the fact that FF came too close to vested interest groups is also a huge factor but that could have happened in any political system

The infuriating thing for me is, the same people are earning extremely handsome wages/pensions and are making the kind of mistakes that have damaged us even further

avalon68 · 17-09-2012 09:10PM

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Has anything actually changed ?

I think that sums it up quite nicely myself! :pac: Everything he said is 100% spot on......its about time the country started listening to outside criticisms coming from people without a personal stake in the system. I would love to know what he replied when being admonished for speaking the truth....

The_Honeybadger · 17-09-2012 09:19PM

A responsible government would have insisted on tighter planning regulations, tighter banking regulation and wage restraint rather than buy em off benchmarking agreements. However a responsible government would have been booted out after a single term, if they even lasted that. Bertie and his pals gave us (the general Irish public) what we wanted, it made him incredibly popular everywhere he went and the country was being touted as an economic miracle in the international media, why on earth would they have done anything differently. Their main critics were FG, who were bemoaning the fact that they weren't spending enough!

I don't think there is anything any one person could have done to prevent what happened, everybody who wanted to work had a job, businesses were booming and the feel good factor in the country was overpowering. No one voice could have turned public opinion enough to make a difference. There were plenty besides McWilliams who offered sound advice, problem was nobody wanted to listen.

Farmer Pudsey · 18-09-2012 01:00PM

The present recessio has very little to do with planning or the way people voted. It has more to do with regulation and the vaailability of credit.

Up to 2003 this country was fairly ok. However with the forced departure of McCreevy to Europe by Bertie Ahern because of his wish to slow down the economy. He did start the fire but seems to want to quench it or at least smother it slowly, however it was the stoking of the fire by Ahern and Brien Cown that actually did the lasting damage.

It was from 2004 on that the unlimited credit supply that stoked the fire thta caused house prices to rise 10%+ a year and the advent of 100% and 110% mortgage's which allowed Anglo to lend more and more to developers and gave the government a unlimited supply of tax money to spend on Public service wage increses, welfare and new staff. For every problem a quango and cash was thrown at it.

It had little to do with the STV we have had for 80 years without too much issue as has Isreal and India (I think).

Because germany was in recession and its population was savinfg too much money the banks had an unlimitd access to credit up until 2004 only anglo and Irish Nationwide were really using it from then on the other banks and building society's afraid that they would lose market share/there position a size were allowed to lend unrestrained.

If the either of ECB/irish regulator/Government/Bank managment had forced the reversal of this policy then we would not have crashed and burned.
It is abit disagenous saying that ordinary Joe Soap was at fault for trying to put a roof over his head, you can blame him for excessive borrowing for the merc/Audi and the Christmass shopping in NY but I be slow to throw all the blame on him

Personelly I saw a crash cominh however I diod not think it would be as severe as it is and I take no personel satisifaction in being right.

Silentcorner · 18-09-2012 04:12PM

It had little to do with the STV we have had for 80 years without too much issue as has Isreal and India (I think).

The only countries that use this system to elect politicians to parliment is ourselves and Malta, other countries use it but for local/regional assemblies

I believe it to be flawed, politicians are not just canvassing for Votes they also are very mindful of transfers, it is in this system that a party like FF could only dominate the way they have since the foundation of the state

We have politicians working 60-80 hours a week, but spend two thirds of that time going to funerals/getting lamp posts fixed/medical cards etc etc, you know the things a funtioning state can provide for its people

For 80 years we have been an economic basket case, riddled with corruption at the highest level of Government, we allowed the Church way too much power/input which was then widely abuse

Generations of Irish people have had to leave these shores in search of a future

We have created an unsustainable welfare state, that allows generational unemployment, which spawns a whole heap of other issues ( criminality/addiction etc )

Why, because Irish politics does not promote debate of real issues

It is extremly difficult for a new party to emerge in this system, you may poll 4,000 No 1 votes in a constituency but end up losing to someone who polled 1,000 No 1 votes, this is not a fair system

Sleepy · 18-09-2012 04:35PM

Honestly, the only way any one person could have done it was to manage to evade the Gardaí for a long enough series of assassinations to force the public eye onto the problems that were so blatantly obvious and move power into the hands of the more responsible members of the various parties.

Farmer Pudsey · 18-09-2012 09:31PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

It had little to do with the STV we have had for 80 years without too much issue as has Isreal and India (I think).

The only countries that use this system to elect politicians to parliment is ourselves and Malta, other countries use it but for local/regional assemblies

I believe it to be flawed, politicians are not just canvassing for Votes they also are very mindful of transfers, it is in this system that a party like FF could only dominate the way they have since the foundation of the state

We have politicians working 60-80 hours a week, but spend two thirds of that time going to funerals/getting lamp posts fixed/medical cards etc etc, you know the things a funtioning state can provide for its people

For 80 years we have been an economic basket case, riddled with corruption at the highest level of Government, we allowed the Church way too much power/input which was then widely abuse

Generations of Irish people have had to leave these shores in search of a future

We have created an unsustainable welfare state, that allows generational unemployment, which spawns a whole heap of other issues ( criminality/addiction etc )

Why, because Irish politics does not promote debate of real issues

It is extremly difficult for a new party to emerge in this system, you may poll 4,000 No 1 votes in a constituency but end up losing to someone who polled 1,000 No 1 votes, this is not a fair system

If you think it is hard for to get elected by STV then why do you think that there are only two big political parties in The UK and the USA and very few independants. The benifits of the Irish STV system is that you do not get swings to the extreme right or left loke in other countries.

A government has to attain over 45% of public support to have any chance of getting elected. In first past the post systems established political parties are impossible to change. If a third party enters the system then one of the two major parties need only 40% or less to get elected. I think in one instance that Margaret Tatcher won an overall majority with 38% of the popular vote. In her case she targated keeping happy a wealty section of society with anti EU sentiment. Her power base was arounf the SE of England and shen closed down industrial England.

Silentcorner · 18-09-2012 10:02PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

If you think it is hard for to get elected by STV then why do you think that there are only two big political parties in The UK and the USA and very few independants. The benifits of the Irish STV system is that you do not get swings to the extreme right or left loke in other countries.

A government has to attain over 45% of public support to have any chance of getting elected. In first past the post systems established political parties are impossible to change. If a third party enters the system then one of the two major parties need only 40% or less to get elected. I think in one instance that Margaret Tatcher won an overall majority with 38% of the popular vote. In her case she targated keeping happy a wealty section of society with anti EU sentiment. Her power base was arounf the SE of England and shen closed down industrial England.

No instead we get a system where a centrist/populist party gets to rein 90% of the time, and when they don't we get a centrist/populist coalition, and look where that got us

The Unions were given too much power by the last government, and that power has been untouched by the new governent ( just one example)

There are flaws in all systems but you gotta consider the fact that only one other nation on the planet ( pop 500,000) uses the same system we do, it is redundant

Every new party that has tried to penetrate the system and make it to government has dissappeared, the Greens, love them or hate them they were the most principled political party ( and I am no fan by the way ) and they no longer exist as far as our parliment is concerned, how does this happen

Any new political party will have to play the parish pump game if they wish to support their dail seats, which is a waste of time and taxpayers money

Cavehill Red · 19-09-2012 03:10PM

If we're going to use a system that only one other small place does, why not pick a system used by the most successful other place?
Direct democracy for Ireland now, please. We've given the politicians, and their children, and their children's children the chance to run the country as a representative democracy and frankly, they ran it for themselves and to the detriment of everyone else.
It's time we have government of the people, by the people, for the people. Let's adopt the Swiss system of direct democracy.

Belfast · 19-09-2012 05:38PM

No one wanted to know in the 2000s.

FF , FG and labour only debate at the time was on how fast government spending should rise.
Fine Gael and labour did not listen to the warnings of Mr Mcwilliams and others either.

Keynesian economics say in these year we should have had a balanced budget and only start deficit spending when the down turn came.

We should have paid off the nation debt.

Belfast · 19-09-2012 07:58PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

I dissagree with Enda Kenny and the late Brian Lenihan, it was not the fault of the people, frankly I found the two statements they made to be deeply insulting

It was the responsibility of the people who were paid ( extremely handsome wages/pensions) to be responsible for government policy

It was our poor political system that was the underlying problem, I truly believe the STV system promotes parish pump politics, which in turn only attracts the kind of person who can perform in this system, at party level policy is fed from the bottom up...the fact that FF came too close to vested interest groups is also a huge factor but that could have happened in any political system

The infuriating thing for me is, the same people are earning extremely handsome wages/pensions and are making the kind of mistakes that have damaged us even further

Of course in was the voters are who to blame. The voted in the politicians who who caused the problem.
David McWilliams and others warned about the problem and the voters ignore this warning.

There were and are many book on economics that describe boom and busts just like the one we had. also lot of information for free on the internet.
People did not know because they did not want to know or could not be bothered to find out.
I do not remember people protesting about FF bankrupting the country.
People only start to protest when they thought the cuts would affect them.

if people cannot be bothered to inform them selves then well will keep getting the likes of FF, FG and labour in power.

OMD · 19-09-2012 09:18PM

Belfast wrote: »

Of course in was the voters are who to blame. The voted in the politicians who who caused the problem.
David McWilliams and others warned about the problem and the voters ignore this warning.

There were and are many book on economics that describe boom and busts just like the one we had. also lot of information for free on the internet.
People did not know because they did not want to know or could not be bothered to find out.
I do not remember people protesting about FF bankrupting the country.
People only start to protest when they thought the cuts would affect them.

if people cannot be bothered to inform them selves then well will keep getting the likes of FF, FG and labour in power.

I always find it strange when people name David McWilliams as some kind of sage when he is massively to blame for the situation we are in.

More important question. Who did you vote for? Not FF, FG or labour obviously. Presumably not PDs or Greens either as they were the ones actually in power.
SF, socialists or independent? Not exactly economic sense there.
Not voting? Well that's a total cop out.

What is your great alternative that voters had over the last 20 years.

Silentcorner · 19-09-2012 10:34PM

Belfast wrote: »

Of course in was the voters are who to blame. The voted in the politicians who who caused the problem.
David McWilliams and others warned about the problem and the voters ignore this warning.

There were and are many book on economics that describe boom and busts just like the one we had. also lot of information for free on the internet.
People did not know because they did not want to know or could not be bothered to find out.
I do not remember people protesting about FF bankrupting the country.
People only start to protest when they thought the cuts would affect them.

if people cannot be bothered to inform them selves then well will keep getting the likes of FF, FG and labour in power.

Who else could they vote for, this is my point, the only politicians who succeed in this system are parish pump politicians, the system is devoid of real debate, and apart from your good self and those like you most people are busy living to become experts on macro/micro economics

Of course the general population have no idea how economies work, show me a country on the planet that is any different

There are many many books on democracy and voting systems, information free on the internet, have a look some day

And also bear in mind that Economists are frequently wrong, I remember in the 6 month run in to the bailout virtually all economists agreed how devastating the arrivial of the IMF would be, dole-slashed, public sector wage bill-slashed, public sector numbers-slashed, two years on and not a sign of any of it

David McWilliams began a documentary on TV3 in the ruins of an ancient South American city and claimed we were headed the same way

People protest in different ways, how did FF do in the 2011 election? It is a very difficult thing to mobilise non union members, remember the unemployed are deflated and those with jobs in the private sector are working their fingers to the bone to keep themselves in employment

This wasn't the first property bubble, it was the most severe, and at its most severe in this country, how did we end up with the worst economic collapse in the OECD, according to you it is because we are all thick

Farmer Pudsey · 19-09-2012 10:52PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Who else could they vote for, this is my point, the only politicians who succeed in this system are parish pump politicians, the system is devoid of real debate, and apart from your good self and those like you most people are busy living to become experts on macro/micro economics

If you have a problem with politicians and cannot vote for any as a democrat you are bound to seek a nomination to public office.

Celtic Tiger Time Machine

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