My Portfolio

The latest and soon to be failure added to my portfolio is Oxus Gold!

No need to offer any insight as my credibility is obviously at 52 week lows.

96k shares bought at 2.4p

HRT is recovering nicely, silver moving up and CMC Metals also inching up.

Portfolio down just over 60% :eek:

liammur wrote: »

Well at least 1 mistake you didn't make was using leverage. Maybe you should just forget about your portfolio for a while and take some pressure off yourself and who knows, it may be well up in the interim.

Indeed. My shares are high risk enough without adding leverage. I would be long gone if leverage had been employed.

Pa Dee wrote:

Would recommend selling everything and put it on black. If you win you are practically evens. If you lose you will save yourself the time you will sink in the next six months to achieve the same result.

I recommend you go for a career change into comedy.

A Primal Nut wrote:

Out of curiosity is there shares that were in your portfolio and you sold which have since come good and you get regret selling?

Not to any major extent, so I would still like to get back into all of them. That's obviously depending on the performance of HRT, CMC and OXS!

Have gone about this whole speculating pretty badly to be honest. Jumping from one share to another trying to find a big oil discovery. I had a pretty bad sports injury which made my evenings completely free so I had too much time to be thinking about different shares, rather than just leaving things be.

It's not bad news from my perspective. They are already out now so the damage has been done. There was a ridiculous rumour spread on Thursday that Cobalt were about to mount a hostile takeover bid. This was probably done to allow the funds to exit on Friday. Massive volume on Thurs and Fri.

Paradoxically, this volume means HRT is getting closer to joining the IBOVESPA index.

The reason I say it could be good news is that MSCI will have to buy back in at higher levels once one of the many drivers for HRT comes in.

This week should be interesting. There's an oil and gas conference in Namibia and the results of Chariot are maybe two weeks away. Would love to buy more here at these levels but I should not!

Agreed. I don't mind looking like a loser here for because it is an anonymous forum. Others think differently and might feel the need to convince others that everything is going well!

What's the point in worrying about reputations!

Beautiful formation test results for HRT's drill number 9.

HRT Participacoes em Petroleo SA, Rio de Janeiro, said a subsidiary has drillstem tested a well in the Solimoes basin at a flow rate the company said is one of the best in onshore Brazil.

The 1-HRT-9-AM vertical well on the SOL-T-191 block has 36.4 m of net pay in the Jurua formation. An interval at 2,769.6-2,794.4 m stabilized at 18 MMcfd of gas with 3,050 psi wellhead pressure on a 32/64-in. choke, then briefly flowed 24.72 MMcfd on a 40/64-in. choke before exceeding the capacity of the test unit. CAOF is 247.21 MMcfd.

The well is about 10 km southwest of the southwestern edge of the existing Jurua gas trend. HRT said the discovery appears to establish an accurate gas trend about 45 km long that lies south and east of the Jurua trend.

.....The structure that underlies the new trend covers about 56 sq km and is estimated to hold 350 bcf-1.13 tcf of recoverable gas, HRT estimated.

Marcio Rocha Mello, HRT chairman and chief executive officer, said, “This result demonstrates that the Solimoes basin holds one of the largest potentials for gas among Brazilian basins and will allow to accelerate the gas monetization plan in the area.”

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2012/09/solimoes-well-defines-gas-trend-south-of-jurua.html

Next up, we have testing of the Aruã cluster which is much more likely to be oil bearing, and then at least four wells offshore Namibia, more than 350km and 100km away from Chariot's dusters. In the meantime we have the gas monetization plan being finalised and the fracking experts TNK going to figure out how to get oil discovered in Block 170 flowing.

They are cashed up until July 2014, even without the expected farm in.

Really happy with how things are progressing with HRT, despite the miserable share price.

With CMC soon to find out about their mill permit, and soon to agree a sale of their 2011 silver I may get a chance to redistribute some funds from there to HRT.

Onwards and upwards from here!

Zignals.com have yet to add Red Emperor to their platform so I cannot post any accurate screenshot, but the balance is around €20,000 after starting at €50,000.

A list of events that will drive the prices for my current holdings:

HRT Petroleo

1. In the next week or so we should hear about the farmout of HRT's Namibian assets. The market is not happy with the cash burn, and the farmout will help to mitigate this risk.
2. Air Amazon, the airline owned by HRT, will be sold for around $70m by the end of this month.
3. HRT-10 is drilling in Block 192. Block 192 is the Tucuma prospect which has been mapped with brand new seismic, one of the largest in the Solimoes. Management are very optimistic about this prospect. The main goal is gas, but they also expect liquid hydrocarbons. The new seismic used on 192 has been very successful and will be performed on other blocks in 2013 prior to further drilling. Only three or four wells will be drilled in 2013.
4. HRT-11 will drill in the Arua cluster, which is much more likely to be oil bearing.
5. The release of the gas monetization plan in December.
6. Starting at the end of December, HRT will drill four wells offshore Namibia that will test six independent prospects with a potential of around 25 billion BOE, P-10 unrisked resource. This must historically be, one of the biggest ever exploratory campaigns in such a short space of time.
7. Possible announcement of a share buy-back once the farm in details are released.
8. Certification by DeGolyer and MacNaughton of more acreage held by HRT offshore Namibia.

CMC Metals

1. Decision from the State of California regarding the permitting of the Bishop's mill, which would then be operational by the end of 2012. There is bulk tonnage waiting to be processed from the nearby Radcliff mine which they own 50% of.
2. In the meantime they will sell ore from the Radcliff Mine to get some cash in.
3. The extremely high grade 2011 silver bulk sample sale has still not been finalised. I believe there is about 100k ounces ready to go, and with precious metals nicely on the rise thanks to my mate Ben Bernanke, the confirmation of these sales will do wonders for the share price.

Oxus Gold

1. I have no idea when we will hear about court proceedings with the international tribunal. Rising gold prices means the 50% holding of the Uzbeki mine is getting more valuable every day. Once the court's decision is made, or a settlement agreed, we will see the share price tank or explode, there will be no middle ground here!

Silver

1. As I have been saying since day one, QE3 was inevitable as the US economy will not recover unless the US politicians face the reality that massive cuts to government spending are needed. They do not have the stomach for cuts and being an election year, more promises of money for nothing are being made to the voting masses. Commodity prices are only going one way.

Some good news coming out overnight and this morning for HRT and Oxus Gold.

Reuters wrote:

Brazilian oil company HRT Participacoes em Petroleo SA will define its plans to sell natural gas from a large, isolated Amazon field by the end of 2012, meeting a promise to investors, the company's chief executive said Monday.


Rio de Janeiro-based HRT and its partner, Anglo-Russian oil company TNK-BP, expect to sign a long-term contract with a buyer of the gas by the end of 2013, CEO Mello said.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/us-hrt-brazil-gas-idINBRE88G1IJ20120917

So we have the HRT CEO opening his big mouth again at an oil and gas conference, which I am not happy about, but at least it is good news. BUT he has made promises before which have been broken, so I am not counting any chickens yet.

The Solimoes has a negative value at this point, so monetization of the gas would be a big step forwards toward a re-rating, especially considering at least one of the next two wells should find oil.

Oxus Chairman by RNS wrote:

"I confirm that the very detailed claim for compensation for the expropriation of the mineral assets at both AGF and Khandiza was filed with the Arbitral Panel yesterday.

Whilst for the reasons set out in the RNS I am not at liberty to disclose the value of the claim submitted I can assure shareholders that the work undertaken by the expert independent valuators has derived a scale of values which supports the value placed on the assets by Oxus.

I hope we can now move the process forward to ensure shareholders are appropriately compensated in the shortest possible time."

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201209180700044620M

It is excellent to hear that Oxus have got verification from Ernst and Young regarding the levels of compensation sought.

Edit to add: Oxus currently trading up 40%.

To give you an idea of the potential of this share if they are awarded or settle for net $300m after costs, which is a reasonable amount considering the absolute minimum they are demanding is $400m.

Fully diluted share capital: 441m shares
Compensation awarded: £180m ($300m)
Share price if trading at cash levels after award: 41p
Share price if the Uzbekis refuse to settle of recognise the courts decision: 0p
Current share price: 3p
My purchase price: 2.4p
2.4p -> 41p = 1700% rise!

Two more RNSs from Oxus in the last two days. First the interim accounts where management say they are "extremely confident" of being awarded fair compensation from the arbitration tribunial and they also say they are open to an out of court settlement.

Then today, we get news that the main man, Chairman Richard Shead has exercised 1.25m share options at 1.34p

This is looking very good right now.

I also note that Obama has had a word with his Saudi mates to get the oil pumping, so as not to upset the voters before the elections. There's also talk that they may release oil from the strategic oil reserve. Is getting Obama re-elected considered an emergency!?

It's clear that the oil price will be managed until he is re-elected, I wonder will gold be too. Unlike oil, they can't increase the supply of gold to meet the new supply of dollars, euros, yen and pounds, but they can flute around with leasing and short selling. Interesting times in the lead up to election day. After that I think things will be ready to blow up!

My portfolio is high risk, but holding cash right now is just as risky in my opinion.