2013 budget preliminaries

liammur · 25-08-2012 05:16PM

hmmm wrote: »

What is up for discussion is how that is achieved. FG are the largest party and the most important part of their manifesto was clear - it is up to them now to implement this, and if they cannot they should walk rather than implement an alternative.

Great,,,and failing this an election & bring back FF ?

Bannasidhe · 25-08-2012 05:51PM

Bullseye1 wrote: »

I've no idea how long she took but there are professional or maybe a better word be life-long students who love nothing more than accumulating PhD's and Master Degrees.

If people want to collect degrees/ PhD's they are free to do so as they will be paying for them themselves.

As I made clear - currently free fees applied to one's first primary degree (if you fail and have to repeat a year fees are not covered for the repeat), plus some post-grad courses as long as it can be demonstrated one is genuinely up-grading one's qualifications.

The maximum number of years free fees will be paid for is primary degree x 3 (x 4 for some courses), M.A x 1 or M.Phil x 2 and if one can convince the authorities (and this is by no means a given) PhD x 3.

Grant or BTEA can be claimed for primary degree or H.Dip only. Not for M.A./M.Phil. or PhD.

I have two primary degrees - fees were paid for both. My PhD fees were paid for by winning a competitive scholarship and I worked the whole time as well. What does it matter if I get another 3 degrees and a brace of PhD's? - The taxpayer will not be paying and the universities would be getting fees...

But the number of degrees or the amount of time people choose to spend in college is a tangent - The point is just telling people to 'go to college' is not a solution unless there are jobs available for graduates. If those jobs are not there we are funding the education of people to help them get good jobs when they emigrate.

syklops · 26-08-2012 02:50AM

paddy147 wrote: »

Eh no its not..not with France and soon to be Holand too.

Both have now realized that Austerity is not the way forwrd.

What is the alternative to austerity? Spending money we dont have?

Mr. teddywinkles · 26-08-2012 11:43AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Yes you are right you can add
increased property tax
Increased college fees
water rates
Generally anything that effects workers of your above there will harly be any increase in Vat as it got hammered last year, little or no extra tax on alachol oe cigs effects the unemployed the most no reduvtion on welfare and no reduction on PS wage rates even though they are one of the highest in Europe.

Tax the private sector out of existance.

Did I not hear on the radio just last week that they do indeed plan to cut welfare payments again.

later12 · 26-08-2012 01:50PM

Nody wrote: »

Less tax relief(s)

Moving the tax bands downwards

Higher motor tax

Higher alcohol & duty tax

Reduction (in unspecified ways) to the social expenditure bill (I guess those below 25 will get another hit with a minor touch for the rest)

Minor cuts to pensions/elder benefits

Increase in VAT

Where are you getting that list?

Lower/ fewer tax reliefs; changes to bands, motor tax, and excise are all in the Memorandum of Economic & Financial Policies, it is true.

But the Memorandum, if you read it, doesn't mention VAT specifically, but indirect taxes. This may or may not mean a VAT increase.

I also have no idea why you are claiming that the cuts to the elderly and pensions will necessarily be minor. There may be political reasons for believing this may be the case, but it is misleading to imply, as you have done, that the MEFP specifically proposes minor cuts to the elderly.

You are just drawing up a scenario that suits your own particular argument, not one that is based on the facts of the matter.

hmmm wrote: »

FG would do well to remember that they were elected on a platform of 2:1 cuts to new taxes. I'd prefer to see them walk rather than kowtow to Labour on this.

liammur wrote: »

For the good of the country that is not an option.

In fairness there is no serious issue of kowtowing. According to the Memorandum, the ratio for the 2013 budget will come out at around 35:65; i.e. €1.25bn in revenue raising measures, as opposed to €2.25bn in public expenditure cuts.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/other/2012/EU-IMFprog.pdf

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

Did I not hear on the radio just last week that they do indeed plan to cut welfare payments again.

I don't see how anyone could say that with authority at this early stage; if tax bands are expanded to bring people deeper into the tax net, then it would make sense to reduce unemployment welfare transfers accordingly.

paddy147 · 26-08-2012 01:56PM

The president of the Irish estate agents and auctioneers assosiation said on RTE News yesterday that it was and is ABSOLUTE MADNESS to introduce a property tax in this country...when so many are in trouble with mortgage debt on their properties.

He cant see what the goverment are doing this for,considering that they are not doing anything to help out the people in distress or helping out the domestic economy..

Nody · 26-08-2012 02:03PM

later12 wrote: »

Where are you getting that list?

Lower/ fewer tax reliefs; changes to bands, motor tax, and excise are all in the Memorandum of Economic & Financial Policies, it is true.

But the Memorandum, if you read it, doesn't mention VAT specifically, but indirect taxes. This may or may not mean a VAT increase.

Seeing how that's the easiest indirect tax to change, that it was already raised already etc. yes, that's not a far guess to go as the indirect tax that will increase will in fact be VAT as the whole point of it is to raise more money and that's the easiest one to grab it from; could be wrong but very unlikely.

I also have no idea why you are claiming that the cuts to the elderly and pensions will necessarily be minor. There may be political reasons for believing this may be the case, but it is misleading to imply, as you have done, that the MEFP specifically proposes minor cuts to the elderly.

Because to date the politicians have been afraid to touch it and the fact that every other type of cut to date has been minor in every other area. Now if the politicians out of the blue would drastically change their behaviour the memorandum would also read drastically different. Hence by the decisions taken to date and by the actions to date it's not a out of the blue sky idea that the cuts will be minor.

You are just drawing up a scenario that suits your own particular argument, not one that is based on the facts of the matter.

Actually the argument is based on the facts from the previous 4 years of budgets and the actions of the politicians (from all relevant government parties) for the last decade.

later12 · 26-08-2012 02:06PM

paddy147 wrote: »

The president of the Irish estate agents and auctioneers assosiation said on RTE News yesterday that it was and is ABSOLUTE MADNESS to introduce a property tax in this country...when so many are in trouble with mortgage debt on their properties.

On the other hand those in mortgage difficulty are in the minority of householders in the state. There are plenty of households who benefit from the provision of council services who ought expect to compensate the council for the added value which their house enjoys & derives through the provision of local services. About 80% of mortgage customers have no significant problems in meeting the (original or revised) instalments on their mortgages according to Central Bank data, and there is another significant cohort of householders who own their homes outright.

He cant see what the goverment are doing this for

Because they need a stable revenue base, that much is not hard to understand.

later12 · 26-08-2012 02:09PM

Nody wrote: »

that's not a far guess to go as the indirect tax that will increase will in fact be VAT

Because to date the politicians have been afraid to touch it

from the previous 4 years of budgets and the actions of the politicians (from all relevant government parties) for the last decade.

Ah right, so just to confirm, nothing in this Memorandum then.

I have already said that one may guess the budgetary decisions using one's political sensibilities, but what I am suggesting is inappropriate was your listing of the supposed measures as though they were confirmed as fact, when in reality they were just your own interpretation of what the Memorandum actually says.

An unsuspecting reader could quite easily happen across that post and presume you to be conveying with accuracy what was in the memorandum - that isn't what you did.

Bannasidhe · 26-08-2012 02:13PM

paddy147 wrote: »

The president of the Irish estate agents and auctioneers assosiation said on RTE News yesterday that it was and is ABSOLUTE MADNESS to introduce a property tax in this country...when so many are in trouble with mortgage debt on their properties.

He cant see what the goverment are doing this for,considering that they are not doing anything to help out the people in distress or helping out the domestic economy..

This has me puzzled too. I live in a row of terraced houses new built in 2005 when the prices were around 240,000. Since that time only one house has been put on the market (at 240,000) but failed to sell - this was around 2009. In 2006 my house was valued at 250,000 - now, who the hell knows?

My nearest neighbour on the other side is a detached, 4 bedroom with large garden, ample off street parking, mature gardens and decking. This house has been on and off the market since 2005 during which time the asking price has fallen from 400,000 to 199,000 and it has failed to sell.

How on earth do they evaluate the current value of my property?

paddy147 · 26-08-2012 02:14PM

later12 wrote: »

On the other hand those in mortgage difficulty are in the minority of householders in the state. There are plenty of households who benefit from the provision of council services who ought expect to compensate the council for the added value which their house enjoys & derives through the provision of local services. About 80% of mortgage customers have no significant problems in meeting the (original or revised) instalments on their mortgages according to Central Bank data, and there is another significant cohort of householders who own their homes outright.

Because they need a stable revenue base, that much is not hard to understand.

Well there will come a time in this great country of ours,where people will just not have enough money left in their account/pocket to pay for everything that they are expected to pay for from next year and 2014 )water charges.

So what do you do with a person who CANNOT pay all these charges from 2013 onwards???

The goverment seem to ignore the Credit Union reports and surveys.

So what will FG/Labour do with alot more of the people who will be further crippled with domestic and personal dept next year??

Its a very honest question here...because I can see possible serious unrest in this country next year.

As a lady said to me the other day in the supermarket..........

..."Theres only so much juice you can squeeze out of an orange"....

later12 · 26-08-2012 02:20PM

paddy147 wrote: »

Well there will come a time in this great country of ours,where people will just not have enough money left in their account/pocket to pay for everything that they are expected to pay for from next year and 2104 )water chargesr.

So what do you do with a person who CANNOT pay all these charges from 2013 onwards???

What will FG/Labour do with alot more of the people who will be crippled with dept next year??

Its a very honest question here.

The Government has not completely abandoned the "ability to pay" principle of revenue collection.

If someone is the owner of a property which does enjoy the main council services, then one should anticipate to have to pay for the benefits that accrue to them through the provision of those services. Otherwise, they might want to consider the wisdom of contracting the charges by way of amassing significant & expensive assets in the first place.

paddy147 wrote: »

As a lady said to me the other day in the supermarket..........

..."Theres only so much juice you can squeeze out of an orange"....

There was a saying in a bank where I used to work that went "you can't get blood out of a stone, but you can get water out of a turnip". The turnip, in this case, is the Irish householder, which through his irrational & eager desire for property ownership, will do almost anything to retain his title deeds.

paddy147 · 26-08-2012 02:25PM

The goverment dont want to talk about anything or listen to anyone else though.

Its a case of EVERYONE MUST pay or else.....and not a persons ability to pay or not pay.

Phil Hogan bulled/rushed his way in and didnt even know what the hell he was doing or saying..he hasnt thought it out properly.

So who do you get out of a recession then...and get the domestic economy going again

I know...just keep on taxing and taxing and taking more and more money off of people and taking it out of the domestic economy too.Threaten them too while you are at it.

Like that lady said to me......"theres only so much juice you can squeeze from an orange"...

liammur · 26-08-2012 02:33PM

paddy147 wrote: »

The goverment dont want to talk about anything or listen to anyone else though.

Its a case of EVERYONE MUST pay or else.....and not a persons ability to pay or not pay.

Phil Hogan bulled/rushed his way in and didnt even know what the hell he was doing or saying..he hasnt thought it out properly.

So who do you get out of a recession then...and get the domestic economy going again

I know...just keep on taxing and taxing and taking more and more money off of people and taking it out of the domestic economy too.Threaten them too while you are at it.

Like that lady said to me......"theres only so much juice you can squeeze from an orange"...

Everyone knows that. But survival is the name of the game for Ireland now. The last government ruined this country, the time comes, where you have to start paying back what you borrow. This applies to countries as much as individuals.
Greece/Ireland/Portugal....and now the likes of Egypt. We have to do what we are told.

paddy147 · 26-08-2012 02:38PM

Are Kenny and Gilmore not doing exactly what the last goverment did though???

They can and will blatantly threaten us (the Irish people) but they wont even say a word to the ECB,german bondholders or Merkel.

If I saw Kenny and Gilmore leading by example then maybe I wouldnt be so pi55ed off at them.but I dont see any example of it.

I do see loads of salary increases for all the FG heads though and tax payers monies being blown on 10,000 silk ties aswell.

Yep,thats leading by example.

Im off out now,talk to you later on this evening.

Regards.

liammur · 26-08-2012 02:41PM

paddy147 wrote: »

Are Kenny and Gilmore not doing exactly what the last goverment did though???

They can and will blatantly threaten us (the Irish people) but they wont even say a word to the ECB,german bondholders or Merkel.

If I saw Kenny and Gilmore leading by example then maybe I wouldnt be so pi55ed off at them.but I dont see any example of it.

I do see loads of salary increases for all the FG heads though and tax payers monies being blown on 10,000 silk ties aswell.

Yep,thats leading by example

Yes, Kenny & Gilmore are doing exactly what FF did when the Troika were in. Effectively they are a puppet government. Any government in a bailout programme is. Greece is the prime example.

I agree that they are not leading by example by not cutting back on their own outrageous expenses etc.

ednwireland · 26-08-2012 05:51PM

3 months of flag flying by our glorious leaders to see what they think they can get away with easiest. i'm sick of it already. these guys really are clowns

Godge · 26-08-2012 06:02PM

paddy147 wrote: »

The president of the Irish estate agents and auctioneers assosiation said on RTE News yesterday that it was and is ABSOLUTE MADNESS to introduce a property tax in this country...when so many are in trouble with mortgage debt on their properties.

He cant see what the goverment are doing this for,considering that they are not doing anything to help out the people in distress or helping out the domestic economy..

Why would you listen to him, he is saying that for his members.

The Vintners Association will say that putting ten pence on the pint is absolute madness and will close pubs
The unions will say that cutting public service pay is absolute madness and will lead to strikes.
The poverty industry representatives will say that cutting social welfare is absolute madness and will hurt the old and the weak

Etc. Etc.

If somebody from a representative group says something it should be taken with a bucket of salt.

areyawell · 26-08-2012 06:24PM

A lot of politicians just love the power and don't care about the citizens of Ireland as long as they have a nice big pay check for doing nothing. All local politicians do is attend one or two meetings a week and discuss nothing and get free meals and other expenses with a nice pay check. Its an utter Joke. The country is broke and will be for the next 20 years. The government are smart, there not going to cut everything or increase tax,vat etc in just one year because they would have a riot on there hands. Ever year it will be cut worse and worse for the next 20 years. Household charge this year and next year we have property tax, water chargers etc. All I can say to people is get out while you can, don't tie yourself down to a mortgage and look for work abroad.

KINGVictor · 26-08-2012 09:09PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

All very well and good - but what happens to those who lost well paid jobs but received the same SW as everyone else - will their front loading be backdated to reflect the contributions the paid or will their rates just be cut if they haven't managed to secure employment?

My sister began work in 1977, up until 2 1/2 years ago she was unemployed in that time for a total of 3 weeks in the mid 80s. She had a very highly paid job in the construction sector since 1990 - her boss went bankrupt in 2009. She claimed JSB part-time for a year while working part-time. Her JSB has now run out and she is claiming JSA but still working one day a week - her hours were cut back. There are many people like her - should her money be cut?

What about people who already have degrees up to and including post-graduate. College is not an option for them unless they can pay fees? They will also not get any form of grant of BTEA.

I know of 7 people with PhD's, funded by the Irish taxpayer, who cannot get jobs in Ireland - all of them are looking to emigrate. Do we fund more people to get university qualifications so they can also emigrate?
This doesn't even take into consideration the fact that our 3rd level institutions are so chronically underfunded that they are on the point of collapse. I know - I work in an Irish university and we can't even afford photocopies any more.

FÁS courses are a joke and everyone know it.

Take a short-term contract and then when it ends wait up to 15 weeks for your 'repeat' claim to be processed?
What do people live on in the mean-time?

Good post and I agree with most of what you are saying but the underlined above is an exaggeration.

Bannasidhe · 26-08-2012 09:10PM

KINGVictor wrote: »

Good post and I agree with most of what you are saying but the underlined above is an exaggeration.

I wish it was..I really wish it was.

KyussBishop · 26-08-2012 09:21PM

No matter what we do here, further cuts are simply going to reduce our GDP so that we have to make more cuts in the next budget, and again in the next, in a negative feedback loop which is going to continue devaluing our entire economy (making national debt harder to pay) until the loop is broken.

For us, with a national debt as high as it is, we need EU level co-ordination to completely write-off some of the debt, and/or a complete suspension of interest payments on debt, coupled with EU-wide deficit spending to bring back full employment.
A combination of anti-cyclical policies like that (this one alone won't do it), which actually aim for full employment, get people working and get GDP increasing, will (in the long term) pay of all of the debt faster (and gradually ease the debt-deflation we are under), especially where much of it is written-off, but there just is not the political will in the EU.

The longer we stick with austerity and accept it as a de-facto reality, and accept the idea that there is no alternative (and you do not have to spell out every step of an alternative plan to show alternatives), the more we'll be needlessly picking away at various public services and strangling the private sector with increased taxes, perpetually making the problem even worse than it is already.

Godge · 26-08-2012 09:53PM

KyussBishop wrote: »

No matter what we do here, further cuts are simply going to reduce our GDP so that we have to make more cuts in the next budget, and again in the next, in a negative feedback loop which is going to continue devaluing our entire economy (making national debt harder to pay) until the loop is broken..

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=7340

So we are stuck in a negative feedback loop. Do you have any figures to back this up? Have a look at that link.

"Growth Developments in 2011
For the year 2011 as a whole Irish real GDP recorded an increase of 1.4%, revised up from previous figures of 0.7%. This represented the first year of growth in the Irish economy since 2007."

It appears to me that you are stuck with last year's problem. Together with the increase of 1.4% in real GDP last year, there was inflation of 2.6%, together giving an increase in nominal GDP (that is the one required for calculating debt ratios) of over 4%.

A case of problem solved, nothing to see here, let's move on.

KyussBishop wrote: »

For us, with a national debt as high as it is, we need EU level co-ordination to completely write-off some of the debt, and/or a complete suspension of interest payments on debt, coupled with EU-wide deficit spending to bring back full employment.
A combination of anti-cyclical policies like that (this one alone won't do it), which actually aim for full employment, get people working and get GDP increasing, will (in the long term) pay of all of the debt faster (and gradually ease the debt-deflation we are under), especially where much of it is written-off, but there just is not the political will in the EU..

So who is going to pay for the written-off debt? I have never been able to get my head around this idea that someone from the EU can come in and wave their magic wand and the debt will be written off just like that, sounds like a Paul Daniels trick.

KyussBishop wrote: »

The longer we stick with austerity and accept it as a de-facto reality, and accept the idea that there is no alternative (and you do not have to spell out every step of an alternative plan to show alternatives), the more we'll be needlessly picking away at various public services and strangling the private sector with increased taxes, perpetually making the problem even worse than it is already.

There is no credible alternative. The only alternative put out there is let the German taxpayer pay for our folly rather than we paying for it ourselves. That is not a real alternative.

AlekSmart · 26-08-2012 11:16PM

later12 wrote: »

The Government has not completely abandoned the "ability to pay" principle of revenue collection.

If someone is the owner of a property which does enjoy the main council services, then one should anticipate to have to pay for the benefits that accrue to them through the provision of those services. Otherwise, they might want to consider the wisdom of contracting the charges by way of amassing significant & expensive assets in the first place.

There was a saying in a bank where I used to work that went "you can't get blood out of a stone, but you can get water out of a turnip". The turnip, in this case, is the Irish householder, which through his irrational & eager desire for property ownership, will do almost anything to retain his title deeds.

Every cloud has it's silver lining.

In this particular recessionary case its the slow drip of realization that outright OWNERSHIP of ones residence (Or as it is usually put,HOME ) is nowhere near as all pervadingly important as we've always been led to believe.

From this generation onwards,Irish property buyers are going to become familiar with the reality of the true cost of owning ones own little-place.

All we need now to establish some form of sustainable living option in Ireland is the total overhaul of the Private Resedential Rental sector.

One element cannot succeed without the other.....are there that few realists within the Government ?

NIMAN · 26-08-2012 11:23PM

Restructuring of Motor Tax?

did they not do that in the last Budget? Iirc, my tax went from €104 per year to €160.

paddy147 · 26-08-2012 11:26PM

FF and the Greens wanted people to go and buy low emmisions/effiecent cars.

FG and Labour then tax the fcuk out of you for doing it and being effiecent.

Thats brilliant indeed.

NIMAN · 26-08-2012 11:28PM

paddy147 wrote: »

FF and the Greens wanted people to go and buy low emmisions/effiecent cars.

FG and Labour then tax the fcuk out of you for doing it and being effiecent.

Thats brilliant indeed.

Lets be honest, the €104 annual rate was never going to last, even I knew that, although I did think it would last a few more years!

Of course they encouraged us to drive more efficient cars, but if you think about it, say the whole country was driving cars with €104 annual road tax. Their income from it would plummet, so thats why it was always going to rise.

Plus as more people drive more efficient cars, we use less fuel, and so pay less tax, and the cycle continues.

avalon68 · 27-08-2012 12:17AM

Bullseye1 wrote: »

I'm all for people getting PhD's etc but if its not going to benefit our economy they should not be funded by the taxpayer and now they are leaving the island with their qualifications and basically giving the tax payer the two fingers. nice.

Could you please explain to this phd holder how leaving to find work is giving the tax payer two fingers? Would you rather I stayed in Ireland and lived on the dole? No doubt you would then be on here calling me a dole scrounger :mad:

KyussBishop · 27-08-2012 12:19AM

Godge wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=7340

So we are stuck in a negative feedback loop. Do you have any figures to back this up? Have a look at that link.

"Growth Developments in 2011
For the year 2011 as a whole Irish real GDP recorded an increase of 1.4%, revised up from previous figures of 0.7%. This represented the first year of growth in the Irish economy since 2007."

It appears to me that you are stuck with last year's problem. Together with the increase of 1.4% in real GDP last year, there was inflation of 2.6%, together giving an increase in nominal GDP (that is the one required for calculating debt ratios) of over 4%.

A case of problem solved, nothing to see here, let's move on.

It's far from a case of problem solved, our GDP is far far below it's pre-crisis levels, and thus boosting it is imperative:
http://www.cso.ie/indicators/default.aspx?id=1

In among that, our GNP (a better indicator of our internal economy) is showing constant decline, and that is going to keep on going down with our current policies:
http://www.cso.ie/indicators/default.aspx?id=2

We might be close to the point of balancing the debt so we're not running more of a deficit, but that policy is damaging the economy, and in the long run restoring GNP/GDP (at close to full employment) as soon as possible should be the goal, not balancing the sheet at the cost of our internal economy (which prolongs the overall recovery).

Godge wrote: »

So who is going to pay for the written-off debt? I have never been able to get my head around this idea that someone from the EU can come in and wave their magic wand and the debt will be written off just like that, sounds like a Paul Daniels trick.

There's going to need to be a private and possibly sovereign debt jubilee to carry it out, but determining the appropriate extent of it is not an easy question (since it must be EU wide), and the political situation in Europe doesn't make this possible at the moment.

Godge wrote: »

There is no credible alternative. The only alternative put out there is let the German taxpayer pay for our folly rather than we paying for it ourselves. That is not a real alternative.

The idea that there are no alternatives is completely false; as a nation on our own, we have very poor options due to lack of sovereign control over our currency, but on an EU-wide level there are plenty of alternative policies that can be undertaken, but which are not explored due to politics.

femur61 · 27-08-2012 02:11PM

When are people going to wake up to the reason we have all these tax hikes. We have decided (sorry the govenment has) to protect PS wages and pensions. I knonw new entrants are being hit but if people in all sectors took pay decreases then we wouldn't have to raise tazes to pay some extortionate wages.

When will Joe Public and Private realise this.

2013 budget preliminaries

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