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My Portfolio

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Comments

  • #212
    Grecco
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    turbobaby wrote: »

    .... open up a short position on HRT, go on, I dare you!

    Turbobaby I wouldn't be comfortable buying hrt at the current price, the cost of the risk is too high at present compared to other stocks. I think about $0.85c would be the price target to buy at but it may not get that low but who knows with the way the markets are at the moment


  • #213
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well this is turning out to be a real car crash so I may as well keep track, even if it is for entertainment purposes only.

    I feel like a desperate heavyweight boxer coming up to the final few rounds. With my eyes swollen and barely able to see anything, I am swinging at shadows hoping to land a knockout blow. None have connected with my opponent yet, and each time I swing I get even more tired. Time is running out!

    This morning I sold out my whole position in BOR at 19.4p so that I could add more to RMP at 11.25p, bringing my average price there to 16.5p, which I am actually quite happy with.

    RMP is not on Zignals.com so I am saved the visual heartache of seeing the current loss levels!

    At least it is nice to see CHAR and BOR down below the price I sold at.


  • #214
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Why RMP and not HRN if you're going to really risk it like that?


  • #215
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Currency commissions from TD.

    ...but surely Georgia is basically written off to zero so RMP must be almost as close to a 100% Puntland punt, like HRN.

    The similar price drops today would suggest so too.


  • #216
    The Pontiac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Currency commissions from TD.

    ...but surely Georgia is basically written off to zero so RMP must be almost as close to a 100% Puntland punt, like HRN.

    The similar price drops today would suggest so too.

    Turbo,

    RMP have a market cap today of £30m ($47m). HRN have a market cap of $80m.

    HRN have a 60% working interest in Puntland, RMP have only 20%. So HRN is much better value (if correctly writing-off Georgia).

    Not sure if RMP have off-shore interests in Puntland though? (If that is worth much at all)


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  • #217
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Ollie, have you factored in cash levels?


  • #218
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    When working out ratios between RMP and HRN it would be foolish not to take into account the HRN warrants - because at the end of all this either they are going to get triggered or both RMP and HRN are going to be worthless.

    Considering % stake in Puntland (for both benefits and costs), fully diluted shares in issue, cash in bank (including HRNs warrant cash if working on a fully diluted basis) and exchange rate, multiplying RMPs share price by just over 8 (8.3ish) should get HRNs share price. There's a slight arbitrage opportunity at the moment with RMP being slightly overvalued but it's pretty insignificant and i'd just associate the small difference to the markets value of Georgia.


  • #219
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Neil, thanks for that. I had thought of the warrants just after posting my cash comment!

    Arbitrage opportunities like that are rarely available, although I should not have bought RMP on that assumption alone.

    Should be an interesting couple of weeks for both HRN and RMP. Currently out of CHAR, which I'm not too pleased about!

    You did well with your GKP sell. You seem to really know what you're doing...


  • #220
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well it is time for another update. I have been messing around way too much with my holdings since day one, and now my portfolio is down significantly as I have panicked and gone from one duster to another. My portfolio is even more riskier now than it was on day one.

    As Zignals still have not yet updated their site to include RMP I cant put up a screenshot, but in short it is now as follows:

    HRT, RMP, CMB and physical silver.

    My average price on RMP is now 14.5p (47k shares) as I sold my Malbex shares to pick up some more.

    I remain very confident that RMP have oil, despite the market thinking they do not.

    HRT hit a new all time low this week as credibility hit rock bottom. HRT 8 results are way late, and likely to only find gas anyway. JPM came in with a large order on the bid side at 5 BRL so maybe we have hit the bottom there.

    Char spudded their well on Friday so by the end of this year it will become very clear if Namibia and the Solimoes have oil basins or not.


  • #221
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Another week ends and still no change of direction for my battered portfolio.

    RMP has been incredibly volatile since I bought in and it has been a real ride this last two weeks. The volumes for the Puntland joint venture partners dried up at the end of this week in anticipation of what is expected to be a massive 15 days for the companies and the people of Somalia.

    I bought in because of the political progress and the 70% CoS of 12-20m net pay in S1, which was found in the secondary target zone of the less prospective well. If Horn's 70% belief that this will flow oil rings true, and more oil is found in SN (the better prospect) the share price will open up multiples of where it is now, 9.5p. No oil in SN still leaves S1 and then further drills, so I am still delighted with my 14.5p average price.

    HRT released drill no. 8 results and as expected found more gas, but no oil. The markets had no reaction whatsoever and the share continued its miserable fall below 5 BRL. (now 4.85)

    The fact of the matter remains that they have yet to drill any of the D&M certified prospects, and at this point are trading just about at cash levels. September will see the results of Nimrod. That will be a huge day for the Namibian oilers and the people of Namibia.

    I was in contact with the President of CMC Metals this week to voice my support for their slow but steady progress on the Bishop's Mill. Since buying in at 16c, I have very good feelings about this company. It's 13c right now, but again will multi bag once they get the mill permit, which I believe is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get!

    Still no database update from Zignals.com which is frustrating but it saves me the embarassment of putting up a screenshot. Currently down about 50%, i.e. €25,000 :eek:

    The dangers of investing in explorers!


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  • #222
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I have been messing around way too much with my holdings since day one, and now my portfolio is down significantly as I have panicked and gone from one duster to another. My portfolio is even more riskier now than it was on day one.
    I was in contact with the President of CMC Metals this week to voice my support for their slow but steady progress
    I remain very confident that RMP have oil, despite the market thinking they do not.
    No disrespect, but the above seems more like emotion than analysis. Is this a sensible state of mind to be in when investing? What are you doing ringing the President of a company to offer moral support - he works for you, if he delivers well and good, if not you'll be moving on.

    Also, what makes you think that you are correct about the prospects, yet the entire market is wrong?

    This strikes me as gambling, not investing. Investors have made 10-20% since Jan 1 as the markets have risen.


  • #223
    grange mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 910 ✭✭✭grange mac


    Turbobaby....turbobaby. What hav you beeing doing, i think you need to relax a small bit and not react to all the info you are getting. Now i cant talk got roasted buying boi,mcinerney bought a house in 05...but now hav good posns on crh,skg,ryanair and air lingus....i hav learned to buy on v.weakness and hold...but still learning and i still believe in nothing ventured nothing gained.
    Happy trading!!


  • #224
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    hmmm wrote: »
    No disrespect, but the above seems more like emotion than analysis. Is this a sensible state of mind to be in when investing? What are you doing ringing the President of a company to offer moral support - he works for you, if he delivers well and good, if not you'll be moving on.

    Also, what makes you think that you are correct about the prospects, yet the entire market is wrong?

    This strikes me as gambling, not investing. Investors have made 10-20% since Jan 1 as the markets have risen.

    I have done my analysis of RMP and concluded that there will be oil found. I have spoken to Somalis about the political process, I have been in touch with an oil expert in Yemen and I have read the RNS which states 12-20m of significant hydrocarbons have been found, with more drilling to go.

    The top men of each of the joint ventures have bought in since the end of the first drill, although Keith Hill bought in via Africa Oil Corp.

    I have done my research, but haven't been arsed posting it here because my results to date have been embarrassing.

    I was in touch with CMC to build a relationship with the President, it doesn't take very long and it's nice to get a feel for how he thinks things are progressing.

    The market gets it wrong all the time! Sure they were buying RMP all the way up to 50p. They were wrong then and can be wrong now. Selling out at a loss pre TD based on gut feeling is not the way to do it.

    Absolutely, this is not investing, it's speculating. I have said that countless times already. If it was gambling, the money would be gone by now as it is more black and white.


  • #225
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    turbobaby wrote: »
    I have done my analysis of RMP and concluded that there will be oil found. I have spoken to Somalis about the political process, I have been in touch with an oil expert in Yemen and I have read the RNS which states 12-20m of significant hydrocarbons have been found, with more drilling to go.

    The top men of each of the joint ventures have bought in since the end of the first drill, although Keith Hill bought in via Africa Oil Corp.

    I have done my research, but haven't been arsed posting it here because my results to date have been embarrassing.

    I was in touch with CMC to build a relationship with the President, it doesn't take very long and it's nice to get a feel for how he thinks things are progressing.

    The market gets it wrong all the time! Sure they were buying RMP all the way up to 50p. They were wrong then and can be wrong now. Selling out at a loss pre TD based on gut feeling is not the way to do it.

    Absolutely, this is not investing, it's speculating. I have said that countless times already. If it was gambling, the money would be gone by now as it is more black and white.

    Hold in there, all of us have had tough times if the truth be known. My only advice is to anyone and everyone is to use stop losses. 1 of my portfolios is literally wiped out because of failure to use them.


  • #226
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Brief update to say I am still in HRT, RMP, CMB and physical silver.

    Losses over 50% at this stage.

    No panic!


  • #227
    collymcd
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 77 ✭✭collymcd


    They found more gas in Brazil today. That's 5(?) wells with gas now I think. They've got to get a move on monetizing this stuff. Gas prices are quite high in Brazil which should help too. I've heard talk of possibly using pipelines that Petrobras already have in place. Do you know anything about these lines and the likelihood of striking a deal?


  • #228
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Colly, we will have to wait until the end of the year before we find out the best options for monetizing.

    I know that Marcio Mello has a good relationship with the new CEO of Petrobras, and I know that Brazil is reliant on gas imports from Bolivia, so there may be political pressure to get this gas to market. There's plenty of options, such as for fertilizer, so it's just a case of wait and see.

    RMP has been halted pending news on Shabeel North. Sweaty bumcrack time!


  • #229
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Colly, we will have to wait until the end of the year before we find out the best options for monetizing.

    I know that Marcio Mello has a good relationship with the new CEO of Petrobras, and I know that Brazil is reliant on gas imports from Bolivia, so there may be political pressure to get this gas to market. There's plenty of options, such as for fertilizer, so it's just a case of wait and see.

    RMP has been halted pending news on Shabeel North. Sweaty bumcrack time!

    Must say this doesn't look good, hope it goes your way though.


  • #230
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Cheers Liam, but one thing I have learned in my brief speculating career is that you cannot second guess things on AIM. I'm waiting for the RNS!


  • #231
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Cheers Liam, but one thing I have learned in my brief speculating career is that you cannot second guess things on AIM. I'm waiting for the RNS!

    I think there will be an update on it tomorrow am.


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  • #232
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Liam, another thing I have learned is not to listen to anything a company's broker says.

    On this occasion when they said an overnight update is expected they were talking sh1te once again!


  • #233
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    They are usually right on the negative side, but I agree you have to do your research.


  • #234
    AP_MAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 139 ✭✭AP_MAN


    do you still hold BOR?
    turbobaby wrote: »
    Going against exactly what I said only a few posts up and despite the fact I will lose any credibilty that I have left, I will post my latest 'trades'.

    Temporarily sold out of CHAR for a quick punt on RMP and added a few more BOR.

    If that doesn't work out I will have to seriously consider closing this thread, or moving it to the gambling forum!


  • #235
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Don't hold BOR anymore. It was a failed punt, just like all the others!

    Sold out of RMP this morning at 5.22p

    I have a bid in for another high risk play, which will no doubt end in more misery!


  • #236
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Problem is at the minute even if those high risk plays come in you just dont seem to see the rewards for it, at least nowhere near equal to the devestation when they dont go well, it just doesnt seem to be worth investing in explorers at the current time, thats why I only really feel comfortable buying GKP or hoarding cash these days.


  • #237
    kerosene
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭kerosene


    Might be worth having a look at minco. Can be got for just 2p at the moment, have cash in the bank, big announcement expected from canada end of next month and another rns in the next week or so. Cant really go any lower, have 10m stg to finance their own projects, might be worth your while having a look.


  • #238
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Kero, I would rather just have exposure to the very promising looking XAG by owning it directly rather than through Minco to be honest, but if you know of an interesting RNS that might be on the way, I'm all ears!


  • #239
    delad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 511 ✭✭✭delad


    Thargor wrote: »
    Problem is at the minute even if those high risk plays come in you just dont seem to see the rewards for it, at least nowhere near equal to the devestation when they dont go well, it just doesnt seem to be worth investing in explorers at the current time, thats why I only really feel comfortable buying GKP or hoarding cash these days.

    Investing in an oil exploration company is like investing in a pyramid scheme, its all about getting in, waiting for the sp to rise 20% on pure speculation, then selling the shares to someone dumber than yourself. If you wait for actual news you will get burned.


  • #240
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Except if the drill is successful of course!


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  • #241
    Pa Dee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 279 ✭✭Pa Dee


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Except if the drill is successful of course!
    There was plenty of advice along the way telling you to cash in. It was all or nothing for you as you claimed you hadn't the skill to take profits. Jesus wept....


This discussion has been closed.
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