House Prices still falling

Scofflaw · 24-07-2012 12:02PM #1

Last month we had a fair number of claims in the papers that house prices had "finally stabilised" - a claim which was based on the May month-on-month change in house prices hitting +0.2%.

At the time, I was sceptical - it seemed likely the media were mistaking a statistical blip for a trend change, particularly since May has done that before during the great price slide. Unsurprisingly, this month, prices are falling again:

National - all residential properties|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|64.8
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-1.1
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.0
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-14.4
National - houses|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|67.6
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-0.9
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-1.9
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-14.0
National - apartments|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|47.6
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.1
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.1
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-19.9
National excluding Dublin - all residential properties|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|68.2
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-1.0
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.8
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-13.5
National excluding Dublin - houses|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|69.7
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-1.0
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.9
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-13.2
Dublin - all residential properties|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|57.8
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-1.0
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-0.3
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-16.4
Dublin - houses|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|61.3
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-0.8
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-0.2
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-16.4
Dublin - apartments|
Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100)|48.6
Percentage Change over 1 month for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-3.4
Percentage Change over 3 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-2.4
Percentage Change over 12 months for Residential Property Price Index (%)|-17.9

Source: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?Maintable=HPM01&Planguage=0

cordially,
Scofflaw

The outlaw · 24-07-2012 12:12PM

I suppose to some extent these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt as the percentage decreases in house prices are based on the assumption that the relationship between asking price (published figures) and the actual selling price (only published if from auction, or consent from buyer and seller) is the same as it was in 2005. Of course it isn't now as the acutal selling prices in many cases now would be a bit less than the asking price. If only the new laws were brought out years ago where actual selling price publication is mantatory and we had the incoming property database. Until the database comes out we have been very much reliant on the media which got huge revenue from estate agents advertising and gave them a strong voice to mislead the public. Even now the agents are trying to mislead the public by saying prices are down 60% to give indication of the floor being reached.

MadsL · 24-07-2012 10:06PM

Papers are hurting desperately I would say as result of lost ad revenue. Wouldn't trust them an inch on property predictions.

antoobrien · 25-07-2012 09:14AM

Are these figures based on actual sale prices or mortgage drawdowns?

If so, how do they account for the LtV skew of the bubble where there were >100% mortgages being drawndown.

roro2 · 25-07-2012 10:22AM

antoobrien wrote: »

Are these figures based on actual sale prices or mortgage drawdowns?

If so, how do they account for the LtV skew of the bubble where there were >100% mortgages being drawndown.

They're based on mortgage data. But as far as I know they use the actual sale price obtained from the mortgage data rather than just the mortgage amount.

They exclude cash transactions though (up to about 1/3 of the market by some accounts) which would probably depress the numbers further. They are definitely not based on asking prices as was said above.

antoobrien · 25-07-2012 10:30AM

MadsL wrote: »

Papers are hurting desperately I would say as result of lost ad revenue. Wouldn't trust them an inch on property predictions.

There's no shortage of property ads in the papers, so ad rates might have dropped but quantities look fairly solid.

RATM · 27-07-2012 04:54PM

antoobrien wrote: »

There's no shortage of property ads in the papers, so ad rates might have dropped but quantities look fairly solid.

I'd say there is a huge shortage of ads in the papers, most supplements now seem to be 3 pages max.

And a few weeks ago in the Independent there was 2 pages of property, one was 5 properties for sale and the other was 5 separate articles on each of the properties on the other page. So it seemed like they were so desparate they were offering advertisers a glowing article for free on top of their ad.

Regarding the market bottoming out as Michael Noonan claimed the other day I would say that it pure codswhallop. There was a poster over on the Property Pin a good while back who put up charts of every property crash across the world over the last 80 years. During the bust cycle every single one of them contained the same feature- a dead cat bounce. In some cases it lasted for 6 months, in others for 2 years. But it always always happened, which leads me to believe that it is a certain feature of a crash.

Just like there is no such thing as a soft landing after a boom there is always a dead cat bounce on the way down and we haven't had one yet. But the conditions are about right for it to occur now- tons of people waiting on the sidelines, lots of cash payouts to retiring civil servants and now the media and politicians calling a bottom to the market.

Villa05 · 27-07-2012 06:05PM

RATM wrote: »

Just like there is no such thing as a soft landing after a boom there is always a dead cat bounce on the way down and we haven't had one yet. But the conditions are about right for it to occur now- tons of people waiting on the sidelines, lots of cash payouts to retiring civil servants and now the media and politicians calling a bottom to the market.

One key ingredient is missing, mortgage credit,

I agree with all your other points, but the absence of credit in any meaningful quantity will only lead to a "dead cat splat" i.e. a straight line for a little while before a further 20 to 30% fall.

The figures on unemployment (especially in the FTB age group), emigration, residential and more importantly BTL mortgages arrears are truly shocking.

All the low hanging fruit for budget cuts are picked, the next 3++++ budgets are really going to hurt, this will lead to further deterioration in the figures above. The tsunami cannot be held back for much longer.

Finnbar01 · 29-07-2012 07:12PM

So instead of obsessing over the monthly CSO figures our political leaders need to find ways to persuade/cajole/incentivise/bully the banks to start lending again. Until they do house prices will continue to fall.

Where do I even begin with this?

Ok, what's wrong with lower house prices for a start?

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/banks-must-lend-again-to-aid-house-prices-3179708.html

Degsy · 30-07-2012 11:15AM

Finnbar01 wrote: »

Where do I even begin with this?

Ok, what's wrong with lower house prices for a start?

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/banks-must-lend-again-to-aid-house-prices-3179708.html

Until they do house prices will continue to fall.

Good thing too that thery continue to fall....they've been hugely overpriced for over a decade.

the only people with an interest in seeing them rise again are the shyster estate agents,"property developers" and other assorted pondlife who grew fat during the boom by foisting overpriced crap onto people who thought they could afford it.

Or then of course there's the Govt..hoping for a "recovery" so they can benefit from a surge in stamp duty takings once again..the chimera that they used to call the "boom" or the "celtic tiger"..anybody who believs property is going to increase in the next decade is living in cuckoo land.

djpbarry · 30-07-2012 11:30AM

Degsy wrote: »

..anybody who believs property is going to increase in the next decade is living in cuckoo land.

The next decade? I don’t know about that. The stock of properties on the market has begun to fall. What’s more, the price of a 3-bed in North/Central Dublin, for example, is headed towards €200k – that’s starting to look very attractive (although admittedly, I am looking at it from a London perspective, where housing costs are absolutely extortionate).

Degsy · 30-07-2012 11:36AM

djpbarry wrote: »

The next decade? I don’t know about that. The stock of properties on the market has begun to fall. What’s more, the price of a 3-bed in North/Central Dublin, for example, is headed towards €200k – that’s starting to look very attractive (although admittedly, I am looking at it from a London perspective, where housing costs are absolutely extortionate).

How could 200k be considered attractive?

Thats nearly a quarter million euro!

1200 per month for the next 20 years on a normal mortage

Dublin is not London...Dublin is a regional backwater by comparison...the prices here arent worth half the value of the property imo.

bull_ring · 30-07-2012 11:46AM

djpbarry wrote: »

The next decade? I don’t know about that. The stock of properties on the market has begun to fall. What’s more, the price of a 3-bed in North/Central Dublin, for example, is headed towards €200k – that’s starting to look very attractive (although admittedly, I am looking at it from a London perspective, where housing costs are absolutely extortionate).

even from an investors POV , you can get yields of over 8% on appartments at the moment , even those same appartments stay the same price for the next decade , thats still twice as much as you get on the top savings rates

property might well have overshot the bottom

Degsy · 30-07-2012 11:48AM

bull_ring wrote: »

even from an investors POV , you can get yields of over 8% on appartments at the moment , even those same appartments stay the same price for the next decade , thats still twice as much as you get on the top savings rates

That will change..the Govt as usual are keeping rents artificially high with thier rent alollwance schemes.

Furthermore,apartment prices will not stay the same for the next decade,they will continue to tumble untill they're virtually worthless in most areas...

bull_ring · 30-07-2012 11:49AM

Degsy wrote: »

How could 200k be considered attractive?

Thats nearly a quarter million euro!

1200 per month for the next 20 years on a normal mortage

Dublin is not London...Dublin is a regional backwater by comparison...the prices here arent worth half the value of the property imo.

a cousin of mine bought a three bed semi in clondalkin in the past month ( better than average part of clondalkin ) for 150 k , i consider that excellent value so 200 k in what is a much better location is without doubt good value

dublin may not be london but it isnt budapest , bucharest , warsaw or some other backwater like you claim

bull_ring · 30-07-2012 11:50AM

Degsy wrote: »

That will change..the Govt as usual are keeping rents artificially high with thier rent alollwance schemes.

Furthermore,apartment prices will not stay the same for the next decade,they will continue to tumble untill they're virtually worthless in most areas...

not all appartment owners rely on wellfare recipients

Sleepy · 30-07-2012 11:56AM

Those yields also fail to account for capital losses. Apartments only started to grow in acceptance in the Irish psyche during the boom and were very much seen as someone's first step "onto the ladder" to be flipped after a couple of years ownership and the capital gain to be put towards a three bed starter home in the commuter belt. The next generation of first time buyers are looking for homes and having watched so many of their older (or better earning) friends get burned on apartments won't be as likely to buy into the "property ladder" bs.

And that's before one even considers the damage to the demand for apartments that the stories emerging from Priory Hall, The Laurels etc. the general poor build and sound insulation quality, small sizes and management company problems etc. that those currently living in or renting those apartments are experiencing.

I'll be a FTB when the dust settles on the market and I wouldn't even countenance looking at apartments.

Sleepy · 30-07-2012 11:57AM

bull_ring wrote:

not all appartment owners rely on wellfare recipients

In a way they do. Rent allowance sets the floor for rent levels. Why would you let anything for lower than the government will give you for it for a welfare recipient tenant?

Without it, rent levels would be *much* lower than they are at present.

bull_ring · 30-07-2012 12:10PM

Sleepy wrote: »

Those yields also fail to account for capital losses. Apartments only started to grow in acceptance in the Irish psyche during the boom and were very much seen as someone's first step "onto the ladder" to be flipped after a couple of years ownership and the capital gain to be put towards a three bed starter home in the commuter belt. The next generation of first time buyers are looking for homes and having watched so many of their older (or better earning) friends get burned on apartments won't be as likely to buy into the "property ladder" bs.

And that's before one even considers the damage to the demand for apartments that the stories emerging from Priory Hall, The Laurels etc. the general poor build and sound insulation quality, small sizes and management company problems etc. that those currently living in or renting those apartments are experiencing.

I'll be a FTB when the dust settles on the market and I wouldn't even countenance looking at apartments.

agree when it comes to appartments which are located in the suburbs or anywhere outside dublin city , central locations will always be in demand from renters though

their are micro markets in dublin , let alone the entire country

Degsy · 30-07-2012 12:10PM

Sleepy wrote: »

Those yields also fail to account for capital losses. Apartments only started to grow in acceptance in the Irish psyche during the boom and were very much seen as someone's first step "onto the ladder" to be flipped after a couple of years ownership and the capital gain to be put towards a three bed starter home in the commuter belt. The next generation of first time buyers are looking for homes and having watched so many of their older (or better earning) friends get burned on apartments won't be as likely to buy into the "property ladder" bs.

And that's before one even considers the damage to the demand for apartments that the stories emerging from Priory Hall, The Laurels etc. the general poor build and sound insulation quality, small sizes and management company problems etc. that those currently living in or renting those apartments are experiencing.

I'll be a FTB when the dust settles on the market and I wouldn't even countenance looking at apartments.

Apartments are not suitable for raising a family either..they are usually too small,have no gardens,poor noise insulation,lack of privacy and there is no recreational space suitable for children to play etc.

bull_ring · 30-07-2012 12:12PM

Sleepy wrote: »

In a way they do. Rent allowance sets the floor for rent levels. Why would you let anything for lower than the government will give you for it for a welfare recipient tenant?

Without it, rent levels would be *much* lower than they are at present.

you are correct and in the event of a major cut in rent allowance , yields will drop from 9% to 6% fairly quickly , thats still a pretty decent return though , yields were 2% during the boom ( less than what you get for money in a bank ) , besides , knowing how this country opperates , rent allowance is unlikely to be cut , labour relys on it for renters and fine gael relys on it for the farmers and other private sector individuals who own buy to lets

Degsy · 30-07-2012 12:18PM

bull_ring wrote: »

you are correct and in the event of a major cut in rent allowance , yields will drop from 9% to 6% fairly quickly , thats still a pretty decent return though , yields were 2% during the boom ( less than what you get for money in a bank ) , besides , knowing how this country opperates , rent allowance is unlikely to be cut , labour relys on it for renters and fine gael relys on it for the farmers and other private sector individuals who own buy to lets

Buy to let is a dead duck and investment in property is not a reliable way to make money.

To my mind this is a good thing,property should be a home,not a way to make money.

It is this mentality that anybody with "means" could remortage thier prncipal residence and becoome an amateur landlord that has seen mamy people in financial hardship.

Speculators are vultures and have been instrumental(along with thier various vested interests) in forming and prolonging the property bubble...keeping homes out of the reach of people who wish to buy them to live in.

stevedublin · 30-07-2012 12:20PM

Degsy wrote: »

Apartments are not suitable for raising a family either..they are usually too small,have no gardens,poor noise insulation,lack of privacy and there is no recreational space suitable for children to play etc.

Doesn't seem to stop people bringing up families in apartments in mainland Europe, Japan etc.

Sleepy · 30-07-2012 12:31PM

I think it's fairly obvious from Degsy's post that he's refering to apartments as those that have been built here during the last 20 years. Very, very few of them are of the same standard as one might find in mainland Europe / the US / Japan etc.

stevedublin · 30-07-2012 12:37PM

Sleepy wrote: »

I think it's fairly obvious from Degsy's post that he's refering to apartments as those that have been built here during the last 20 years. Very, very few of them are of the same standard as one might find in mainland Europe / the US / Japan etc.

An apartment is an apartment, what "standard" do non-Irish apartments have that Irish ones don't?

Degsy · 30-07-2012 12:39PM

stevedublin wrote: »

An apartment is an apartment, what "standard" do non-Irish apartments have that Irish ones don't?

It would seem that many irish apartments have no standards whatsoever..pyrite being used in building materials,inadequate fire control safety and problems with noise pollution to name just three.

djpbarry · 30-07-2012 01:01PM

Degsy wrote: »

How could 200k be considered attractive?

Thats nearly a quarter million euro!

1200 per month for the next 20 years on a normal mortage

It’s all relative. For example, I could not possibly afford to buy property in London, but I now could in Dublin. Myself and the missus could get a pretty decent sized place within cycling distance of the city centre – that is very attractive.

Degsy wrote: »

Dublin is not London...Dublin is a regional backwater by comparison...the prices here arent worth half the value of the property imo.

And yet Dublin is still ranked as one the top cities in the world to live:

http://www.mercer.com/qualityoflivingpr#city-rankings

Granted, such rankings should be taken with a pinch of salt, but “regional backwater” is really pushing it. I know it’s a national past-time in Ireland to bitch and moan about how everything in Ireland is ****e, but the fact of the matter is, Dublin is a pretty good place to live in the grand scheme of things.

Degsy wrote: »

Furthermore,apartment prices will not stay the same for the next decade,they will continue to tumble untill they're virtually worthless in most areas...

That may be true of somewhere like Leitrim, but I find it hard to believe there will be no demand for flats in Dublin or Cork, for example.

bull_ring wrote: »

dublin may not be london but it isnt budapest , bucharest , warsaw or some other backwater like you claim

Budapest could hardly be described as a “backwater”?

Degsy wrote: »

Apartments are not suitable for raising a family either..they are usually too small,have no gardens,poor noise insulation,lack of privacy and there is no recreational space suitable for children to play etc.

I’ve no idea what you mean by “lack of privacy”, but pretty much everything you’ve said there could also be applied to a small, poorly-built house, of which there are plenty in Ireland. There is absolutely no reason why a family cannot live in a flat/apartment.

Degsy · 30-07-2012 01:13PM

djpbarry wrote: »

I’ve no idea what you mean by “lack of privacy” .

I mean being able to hear your neighbours shagging,arguing,cooking,flushing the toilet,shifting furniture,using the washing machine etc.

Then there's the fact that many apartments are rentals with all kinds of people hanging round in corridors or in lifts,trying to get in at all hours,ringing buzzers,looking over balconies,peering in through windows(if its ground floor),having parties during the week(especially true of E europeans),propping fire doors open,dumping rubbish all over the place and urinating in courtyards.

.

djpbarry wrote: »

There is absolutely no reason why a family cannot live in a flat/apartment.

maybe for a while but they are nort suitable for raising a family.

Where are kids to play in safety? On the balcony? In the underground carpark?

How will they amuse themselves after school or during holidays? Where can they go to play football when they're teenagers?

Kids require lots of space to grow and develop properly,in my opinion the only thing apartment blocks are good for is breeding grounds for delinquency and boredom for children.

You dont need to take my word for it,any high densityor high rise schemes in the UK especially or places like Ballymun in ireland have given rise to nothing but social problems.

stevedublin · 30-07-2012 01:20PM

Degsy wrote: »

It would seem that many irish apartments have no standards whatsoever..pyrite being used in building materials,inadequate fire control safety and problems with noise pollution to name just three.

most apartments are fine.

Degsy · 30-07-2012 01:28PM

stevedublin wrote: »

most apartments are fine.

http://www.herald.ie/news/pyrite-is-putting-60000-houses-at-risk-of-crumbling-1561301.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1017/1224305920139.html

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0709/dundrum-apartment-complex-to-be-evacuated.html

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1014/prioryhall.html

http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g186605-d1494998-r115729178-Herberton_Apartments-Dublin_County_Dublin.html#CHECK_RATES_CONT

Indeed.

stevedublin · 30-07-2012 01:31PM

well done for pointing out the exceptions.
The majority of apartments in Ireland are fine.

House Prices still falling

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