IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU MUST IRELAND LEAVE TOO?

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 3:19pm

Bonus_Pack wrote:

Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.

It's a meaningless argument. We don't need a common currency to enjoy excellent access to the UK market - the common language, common business culture, and historical links provide a very strong foundation for that without a common currency, as indeed is shown by the existing extensive relations.

In terms of future opportunity, the UK market is well understood and already well exploited by Irish companies. We have a 'trade intensity' with the UK four times that of the next country (Belgium).

The opportunities for export growth to the UK, therefore, are far lower than the opportunities for growth in other markets where our current trade intensities are much lower. Those are the markets where Irish involvement needs the boost provided by a common currency, because we don't have the benefit of the shared history/language/culture we have with the UK.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 5:34pm

We have a 'trade intensity' with the UK four times that of the next country (Belgium).

Infairness Belgiam is not a country any longer. They have split along the Geo/linguistic divide of French vrs German and Dutch.It looks as though the French speakers will be absorbed into France and the German and Dutch speakers into Germany.

To be honest our relationship with Britain would be ok i thinnk. It suit us both and we would come to an arrangement i am sure. What would become and issue is why would Europe want us? We were partially allowed in because it suited British interests as we were a big trading partner for them they wanted us in. But really why would Europe want us without Britian?

Also how would Britain leaving the EU affect EU argicultural policy as they have had a strong voice and on eu tax policy. Would the new voices in the eu be in tune with Irish interests.

To be honest it could be argued that our agriculture industry and other industries have been choked by dependence on the UK also. There are numerous thhings to consider advantages and disadvantages there are both sides.

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 5:52pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Infairness Belgiam is not a country any longer. They have split along the Geo/linguistic divide of French vrs German and Dutch.It looks as though the French speakers will be absorbed into France and the German and Dutch speakers into Germany.

In reality Belgium is a country, just as Switzerland and Canada are.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

To be honest our relationship with Britain would be ok i thinnk. It suit us both and we would come to an arrangement i am sure. What would become and issue is why would Europe want us? We were partially allowed in because it suited British interests as we were a big trading partner for them they wanted us in. But really why would Europe want us without Britian?

Why would they want Malta, or Cyprus, or any of the other 7 countries that are smaller than Ireland?

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Also how would Britain leaving the EU affect EU argicultural policy as they have had a strong voice and on eu tax policy. Would the new voices in the eu be in tune with Irish interests.

We'd lose an opponent on agricultural policy and an ally on tax policy.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

To be honest it could be argued that our agriculture industry and other industries have been choked by dependence on the UK also. There are numerous thhings to consider advantages and disadvantages there are both sides.

As I said, the dependence of the UK on Ireland as an export market (we're their fifth biggest export market overall and NI's biggest) would guarantee a special arrangement, so trade doesn't really weigh much as a factor when considering a UK exit. And the FDI advantages to us would be enormous.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 6:07pm

Belgians have decided they no longer wish to be a country...it's intense..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932011_Belgian_political_crisis

The Flemish want a split.

The parition of Belgian is popular with it splitting and the French speakers being absorbed into France and it was discussed with Sarkozy and has high approval with the French.

The German speaking towns are expected to be absorbed into Germany.

They have not had an elected Govt since 2007 i think . And parties have been campaigning for parition since the 60's.

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 6:13pm

So effectively it is not a country or at least is soon not to be one in the former form of Belgium anyway.

It is said it could be the first peaceful breakup of a country in history.

Which is nice...i think

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 6:49pm

poeticseraphim wrote:

They have not had an elected Govt since 2007 i think .

They've had one since December...

And parties have been campaigning for parition since the 60's.

As has also been the case in Canada and various other countries.

From the point of view of current and historical trade with Belgium, it's really very silly to pre-suppose a split which hasn't happened and may never do so as if it were some kind of fact, as you're doing. It isn't a fact, because it hasn't happened.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

So effectively it is not a country or at least is soon not to be one in the former form of Belgium anyway.

It is said it could be the first peaceful breakup of a country in history.

Which is nice...i think

Well, you could ask the Czechoslovakians - or, rather, the Czechs and the Slovakians as they now are. Their split has achieved the factual status that Belgium's potential split hasn't, by virtue of having actually happened.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 7:49pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

They've had one since December...

As has also been the case in Canada and various other countries.

From the point of view of current and historical trade with Belgium, it's really very silly to pre-suppose a split which hasn't happened and may never do so as if it were some kind of fact, as you're doing. It isn't a fact, because it hasn't happened.

Well, you could ask the Czechoslovakians - or, rather, the Czechs and the Slovakians as they now are. Their split has achieved the factual status that Belgium's potential split hasn't, by virtue of having actually happened.

cordially,
Scofflaw

You use the term very silly a lot:)

It has happened culturally and in sentiment. What you mean is that it has not happened formally. Which is true. It more than likely will at some point. Not certainly but likely. And it should be thought of.

Industrial housing and economic policy has already been handed over from the federal govt to the divided regions.

In many ways Belgium is a microcosm of the euro zone, a rich north is fed up with subsidising a profligate south.

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 10:59pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

You use the term very silly a lot:)

Circumstances seem to require it. You're making arguments based on non-facts, after all.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

It has happened culturally and in sentiment. What you mean is that it has not happened formally. Which is true. It more than likely will at some point. Not certainly but likely. And it should be thought of.

Industrial housing and economic policy has already been handed over from the federal govt to the divided regions.

In many ways Belgium is a microcosm of the euro zone, a rich north is fed up with subsidising a profligate south.

And neither has yet broken up. Ergo, "Belgium is not a country" is not a fact. You might perhaps argue that Belgium is not a nation, which would be arguably true, as opposed to using a term which translates as "Belgium is not a state", which is not even arguably true.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 1:43am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Circumstances seem to require it. You're making arguments based on non-facts, after all.

And neither has yet broken up. Ergo, "Belgium is not a country" is not a fact. You might perhaps argue that Belgium is not a nation, which would be arguably true, as opposed to using a term which translates as "Belgium is not a state", which is not even arguably true.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I actually was not arguing anything. I am merely thinking out loud to be honest. You are arguing particular points that you disagree with in my posts which is fine.:)

The Belgian Prime minister Elio Del Rupo announced his 'plan' was to as the Flemish if they were willing to seceede and to ask the people in Wallonia and Brussels if they wanted to remain united. Or all this could be a negotiating tactic to say they are not prepared to negotiate any further.

You assume a lot about me and you are reading things in my posts that are not there.I am not suggesting there that i think EU ( i think it could go either way) will break up however that it is really relevant to to the issues in the Eurozone.There are facts and there are insights. Mistakes were made in the governing of Belgian linguistic municipilities that the EU could do well to learn from and avoid repeating. They have similar problems.
I don't mean literally Belgium is not a recognised state. But it is coming very close to splitting.To the point where it was not even functioning as a country. I have relatives there and by their account it is functioning alomst like separate states in many ways and there is a lot of resentment. And there is much to be learnt from how that came about.

I do think the EU will look very different over the coming years. Which nations go along with that and which don't who knows for certain. But we can speculate and theorize. Creative thinking is as important as analytical thought.

And these issues and caretaker Govts accross Europe in Italy and until recently Greece and Belgium do not promote stability in the EU nor the image of it to markets. Which is a big issue ....confidence in European stability. Perception plays a big part as well as facts in the markets and it seems politics is being largely driven by reactions in the markets, or at least by efforts to stabilize them.

The point is not just will the EU or belgium or wherever break up..it is also do the marets think they will. What is the perception? That matters. And it can it turn affect the reality. The politcial stability in EU countries needs to be affirmed. (well in some). But as they are interlinked in their banking sectors political shakes affect the markets throughout exposed countries. Markets react to riots and lack of elected Govt and political stalemates even if officials do not admit the instability. The markets react to it people react to it. And all these factors contribute to instability within the Eurozone and affect economies which further affect politics. The Eurozone and the EU has not broken up and may be far from it but it has to convince the markets of that. And stable govts are needed. Instabilty in Belgium Greece caretaker Govts in Italy and riots in Greece Spain and Italy affcets stabilty in the markets , Govt and society elsewhere.And it does not promote the perception of a stable Europe. And perhaps the reality is it is unstable at the moment.

Scofflaw · 29-06-2012 1:55am

poeticseraphim wrote:

I do think the EU will look very different over the coming years. Which nations go along with that and which don't who knows for certain. But we can speculate and theorize. Creative thinking is as important as analytical thought.

Sure - and perhaps we could go back to applying both of those to the topic of the thread...?

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 2:35am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sure - and perhaps we could go back to applying both of those to the topic of the thread...?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Ok well persume for a moment Britain leaves the EU or it's role significantly diminishes. It has always been a voice of independance and support. What leverage does Ireland have. Our politicans have proven to be soft negotiators. Do EU politicians have enough invested in Ireland not to walk all over us or are they simply out for their own countries. It seems this way. There has been an arguement we are so small we would be blown away outside the EU..but what if we are so small we get blown away in it without Britain? And what of NI?? If we are not the gate to london why would the want us enough to treat us fairly? Or even want us at all?

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 2:41am

On the other hand we could become the Hongkong of the west...or maybe thats too ambitious

But one of the reasons Ireland could not be like hong kong (one of the many) was that Britain was not like China and asia no where near but the EU is pretty big.

Could we be a western hong kong (bit of leap of imagination) could we be east meets eu meets America/britain???

It could be our thing....or is just ridiculous??

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 9:33am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Ok well persume for a moment Britain leaves the EU or it's role significantly diminishes. It has always been a voice of independance and support. What leverage does Ireland have. Our politicans have proven to be soft negotiators. Do EU politicians have enough invested in Ireland not to walk all over us or are they simply out for their own countries. It seems this way. There has been an arguement we are so small we would be blown away outside the EU..but what if we are so small we get blown away in it without Britain? And what of NI?? If we are not the gate to london why would the want us enough to treat us fairly? Or even want us at all?

I find it ever so slightly perplexing that you’re so preoccupied with the UK, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, and its future within the EU, while simultaneously dismissing Belgium, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, as essentially not being a real country?

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 4:34pm

djpbarry wrote: »

I find it ever so slightly perplexing that you’re so preoccupied with the UK, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, and its future within the EU, while simultaneously dismissing Belgium, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, as essentially not being a real country?

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity. People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

We have a greater trading relationship with Britain and we share the same island with a British state.

If you think Belgium has as much impact in the EU orthe World or Ireland as Britain i think you would be mistaken. And that is what couns impact..

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 8:31pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic.

Well, yes. The topic of a thread that you started.

My point here is that you are seriously over-stating the significance of Ireland's dependence on the UK. Simultaneously, you're dismissing a country as being insignificant relative to Ireland when it has a population and economy more than twice as large.

sarumite · 29-06-2012 10:03pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity. People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

What is you definition of "distant possibility"

The scots will go to the polls within the next two years where they will be asked explicitly to decide on whether they want independence or not.

poeticseraphim · 30-06-2012 12:30am

sarumite wrote: »

What is you definition of "distant possibility" The scots will go to the polls within the next two years where they will be asked explicitly to decide on whether they want independence or not.

Good point actually....interestingly do you think that they will secede from the UK?

Scofflaw · 30-06-2012 3:04am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity.

That's...well, it's surprisingly inaccurate. The Scots are gearing up to actually vote on a split, the Belgians aren't, but you regard the Belgian split as a done deal and the Scottish one as a 'distant possibility'?

Please don't argue from your own made-up facts. There's a limit to the toleration of such an approach.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

We have a greater trading relationship with Britain and we share the same island with a British state.

If you think Belgium has as much impact in the EU orthe World or Ireland as Britain i think you would be mistaken. And that is what couns impact..

Actually, a trade partner with less international clout is arguably a preferable trade partner. So you're suggesting something which is a better deal from the point of view of the UK, particularly if we were both outside the EU, since in that situation we would seriously lack clout.

I'm not sure where this rush back to the UK's embrace is coming from - you're by no means its only exponent - but I do find it peculiar. Is it a case of keeping a hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse?

cordially,
Scofflaw

OS119 · 30-06-2012 8:24am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Is it a case of keeping a hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse?

speaking as a Brit, i find it interesting, but the answer is fairly obvious - for Ireland the EU was not only an opportunity, but an organisation/structure that had a friendlier face than the UK, as well as being an organisation that would, to some degree, put the UK in its place with regard to the UK's treatment of Ireland. in effect, that the previously subject state got a bunch of new friends, big friends, nicer friends, friends who wouldn't hesitate to stamp on the toes of the 'bully' state.

this all worked fine for 30-odd years, and then when it all went tits up, the nice friends friends turned out to be just as self-serving and prepared to fcuk over their new little friend as Britain had been when it serves their interests.

so, people think that maybe Britain wasn't so bad after all - it lends us money, its publicly repentant about its 'less glorious' behaviour in the past, may of us have lived/worked there and been made welcome, its somewhere where, by law, we aren't 'aliens', we speak the same language, we watch the same TV, it doesn't ask to see our budget before our government publishes it, and we are massively interdependant in trade, culture, and security terms. perhaps, while Britain may, on occasion, be a bit difficult, and throw its weight around, and be a git, its 'our' occasionally difficult, though powerful, git.

to me, it doesn't mean that people are saying 'Europe is crap, rejoin the UK', it means people are saying that some of the (unrealistic?) shine has come off the EU, and that despite the, err... 'difficult' history between the UK and Ireland, Britain is being rather decent and helpful.

djpbarry · 30-06-2012 10:01am

OS119 wrote: »

this all worked fine for 30-odd years, and then when it all went tits up, the nice friends friends turned out to be just as self-serving and prepared to fcuk over their new little friend as Britain had been when it serves their interests.

Let's please not compare the actions of the EU with those of the British Empire (or any other Imperial power, for that matter).

4.legs.good · 30-06-2012 10:53am

southsiderosie wrote: »

Unless I am reading this backwards, according to those figures, the EU is the largest export market for Ireland. Also, when you add up import and export activity, by far the largest volume of trade is with the EU.

UK is in the EU

UK+US larger destination than EUexUK

The Corinthian · 30-06-2012 11:20am

4.legs.good wrote: »

UK is in the EU

The figures that (s)he was referencing differentiated between UK and EU without the UK.

UK+US larger destination than EUexUK

For imports, but for exports the EU (excluding the UK) still tops the combined exports to the UK and US.

Scofflaw · 30-06-2012 1:29pm

OS119 wrote: »

speaking as a Brit, i find it interesting, but the answer is fairly obvious - for Ireland the EU was not only an opportunity, but an organisation/structure that had a friendlier face than the UK, as well as being an organisation that would, to some degree, put the UK in its place with regard to the UK's treatment of Ireland. in effect, that the previously subject state got a bunch of new friends, big friends, nicer friends, friends who wouldn't hesitate to stamp on the toes of the 'bully' state.

this all worked fine for 30-odd years, and then when it all went tits up, the nice friends friends turned out to be just as self-serving and prepared to fcuk over their new little friend as Britain had been when it serves their interests.

so, people think that maybe Britain wasn't so bad after all - it lends us money, its publicly repentant about its 'less glorious' behaviour in the past, may of us have lived/worked there and been made welcome, its somewhere where, by law, we aren't 'aliens', we speak the same language, we watch the same TV, it doesn't ask to see our budget before our government publishes it, and we are massively interdependant in trade, culture, and security terms. perhaps, while Britain may, on occasion, be a bit difficult, and throw its weight around, and be a git, its 'our' occasionally difficult, though powerful, git.

to me, it doesn't mean that people are saying 'Europe is crap, rejoin the UK', it means people are saying that some of the (unrealistic?) shine has come off the EU, and that despite the, err... 'difficult' history between the UK and Ireland, Britain is being rather decent and helpful.

Hmm..that's the same UK that's lending us money at the highest rate of all our bailout loans? And that rather publicly stated it was doing so out of self-interest?

It doesn't quite stack up.

cordially,
Scofflaw

sarumite · 30-06-2012 10:01pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Good point actually....interestingly do you think that they will secede from the UK?

Too early to say. The economy will play a big part in the debate. A lot can happen in two years.

CRM Ireland · 01-07-2012 10:25am

Im not that well informed on matters of the EU and EEA. That might be quite an understatement actually.

If Britain were to leave the EU, would it still be able to maintain free movement for its citizens within the Eurozone? Would other EU citizens still be able to freely live and work in the UK as the situation is now?

Could Britain leave the EU and simply remain a part of the EEA? I think this would mean the EU wouldnt have much influence over policies, yet they would still benefit from trade and free travel arrangements like Norway. I could be WAY off on that, could anyone advise?

FreudianSlippers · 01-07-2012 11:04am

CRM Ireland wrote: »

If Britain were to leave the EU, would it still be able to maintain free movement for its citizens within the Eurozone? Would other EU citizens still be able to freely live and work in the UK as the situation is now?

Without fresh agreements and severe changes to existing policies, the answer is no. This wouldn't really have any impact on Ireland due to the unique relationship between Ireland and the UK. Of course, it is highly dependent on your next question; it wouldn't make any sense for the UK to leave the EU without also leaving the EEA... it's all of the obligations of EU membership with little to no say. If, for some reason, they did remain in the EEA then they would have to participate in inter alia free movement of workers.

Could Britain leave the EU and simply remain a part of the EEA? I think this would mean the EU wouldnt have much influence over policies, yet they would still benefit from trade and free travel arrangements like Norway. I could be WAY off on that, could anyone advise?

Correct, EEA members are obliged to implement the (formerly called) First Pillar of EU into national legislation - this is everything bar Foreign and Security Policy as wells as Police and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters. The First Pillar is by far the most imposing of the three, although Ireland seems to be unhealthily focused on second pillar issues.

I digress... There is little to no practical benefit to the UK leaving the EU and staying in the EEA. Make no mistake, the UK is a powerhouse in the EU and is probably the most influential EU member state - the talk about Germany and France running the show is only true for the Eurozone (of which the UK is not a member). I dare say that the UK will never leave the EU and remain a member of the EEA; it would be insanity.

The Corinthian · 01-07-2012 11:12am

CRM Ireland wrote: »

If Britain were to leave the EU, would it still be able to maintain free movement for its citizens within the Eurozone? Would other EU citizens still be able to freely live and work in the UK as the situation is now?

It probably could, in the same way that countries like Switzerland or Norway do, through bilateral treaties with the EU - but it would have to negotiate them first. This would mean that other EU citizens still be generally able to freely live and work in the UK - and by generally I mean that it's not quite the same as living and working in the EU as an EU citizen - countries like Switzerland and Norway still maintain certain restrictions; you still have to apply for work and residency visas and renew them periodically, and you often have limited rights of residency if you have no permanent employment in the country.

Could Britain leave the EU and simply remain a part of the EEA? I think this would mean the EU wouldnt have much influence over policies, yet they would still benefit from trade and free travel arrangements like Norway. I could be WAY off on that, could anyone advise?

The EU would still have significant influence over UK politics. If interaction is through bilateral treaties, then it becomes a question of negotiation and in this regard the EU is in an overall much stronger position to the UK.

The EU already imposes a lot on countries like Switzerland and Norway and is in many cases able to unilaterally introduce trade legislation that has to be implemented in these counties. Naturally, they have the right to refuse, but then they can go find someone else to trade with - like it or lump it.

There's no such thing as sovereignty at the end of the day, unless you want to become completely insular like North Korea.

CRM Ireland · 01-07-2012 12:18pm

The whole thing seems incredibly complex. I wonder how many of your average Joe Public actually know the ins and outs of the situation. The idea of a referendum on such a complex issue is mind blowing.

As stated, it seems unlikely that the UK would leave the EU. However, as a matter of interest, what would happen to Greeks who were living in other countries within the EU if Greece are to leave the Euro? Im assuming that by leaving the currency, they would have to leave the EU as well. What if someone from Greece had just moved to another EU country and then a week later they exit the EU, they wouldnt be habitually resident in that other country yet, so would they have to return to Greece?

The Corinthian · 01-07-2012 12:46pm

CRM Ireland wrote: »

The whole thing seems incredibly complex. I wonder how many of your average Joe Public actually know the ins and outs of the situation. The idea of a referendum on such a complex issue is mind blowing.

This is why you get so many threads making claims that if we all left the EU we would suddenly become like Switzerland and Norway - those who make such claims are relying upon the ignorance of the reader.

However, as a matter of interest, what would happen to Greeks who were living in other countries within the EU if Greece are to leave the Euro? Im assuming that by leaving the currency, they would have to leave the EU as well.

The two are exclusive; that is, just because Greece leaves the Euro, there is no rational reason why they would need to leave the EU.

I use the term 'rational' as a caveat, because there is an irrational scenario where this may follow; Greece does not want to leave the Euro, let alone the EU at present, despite it having been made absolutely clear that a default would result in the former - they would be forced out of the Euro by the other Eurozone nations. If this occurred, this could result in a severe anti-EU backlash which in turn could result in a popular Greek decision to leave the EU. Lots of 'ifs' there though.

What if someone from Greece had just moved to another EU country and then a week later they exit the EU, they wouldnt be habitually resident in that other country yet, so would they have to return to Greece?

No idea. Perhaps they would have to apply for a visa, like any other non-EU nation. Perhaps those already resident would be allowed a one-time permanent residency visa. It's a case of crossing that bridge when we burn it.

plasmaguy · 02-07-2012 9:19pm

Not sure if Ireland has to leave or should leave.

The EU has just become far too big too quickly.

There is no directly elected president as there is in the United States.

The most powerful person in Europe is Angela Merkel (something the europhiles will laughably deny of course) who wasn't voted by a single European outside of Germany. Merkel has only to answer to her own constituents/electorate in Germay and no-one else and is electorally accountable to no-one outside of Germany.

For reasons like this, the EU is badly designed. One of the other reasons the EU is flawed is because the blind fanaticism of EU-philes who think its the greatest thing ever when clearly it is anything but. They often point to spurious and often laughable reasons such as that it prevents war between France and Germany and often people in Europe are made to feel as if they don't vote for a certain referendum it will mean war between France and Germany.

Most of all the EU is run by politicians, none of who have the slightest clue about economics.

As currently designed its a flawed project.

IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU MUST IRELAND LEAVE TOO?

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