IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU MUST IRELAND LEAVE TOO?

poeticseraphim · 23-06-2012 6:36pm #1

Britain has become increasingly isolated in the EU.

It looks as if there is either to be a break-up of the Euro and therefore the EU or political union.

It is clear Britain will not agree to political union.

It is in fact clear that they will not agree to more fiscal or banking union.

They are our biggest trading partner and we are their biggest trading partner in the EU.

If they leave the Eu can we remain apart of it??

Also if Britain is not to be more fully integrated into the fiscal union etc is it in our best interests to be?

Perhaps a complete departure is not definite.

But a two tier system? Would it work for Ireland to be in Europe if Britain in not fully.

I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.

Honestly it might workfor them too....we are a tiny nation they haven reason to want us in the EU.

And it looks to be increasingly bad for the country.

To be associated with the Eurozone at the momment is not good for our reputation i think.

I am unsure of our options.

But i think we need to be prepared in case the Eurozone breaks up.

And have a plan.

And we need to look into is it really in our interests any longer.

We are losing budgetary control.

Perhaps our low corporate tax rate.

It is likely we will not recieve ESM funding...or a secind bailout (if we need it -i am so sick of hearing that phrase)

So my worries are ..if we need a bailout ....what happens when none is forh coming....IF we get help what do they force us to give??? And thats a big IF

Also it is becoming obvious that there is not enough money in Europe to bailout Europe.

15 Banks today were were downgraded by Moody's .

Not all from Europe.

It used to be we need the Euro to attract foreig investment...For the first time it is now ..oh no the fact that we are in the Eurozone is scaring away foreign investment...

So thoughts ?? Discussion?

Sorry if it is not a great opening:o:P But i think it is interesting

jhegarty · 23-06-2012 6:39pm

EU and the Euro are different things.

Chucky the tree · 23-06-2012 6:42pm

The EU is our biggest trading partner.

southsiderosie · 23-06-2012 7:45pm

OP, it is not really clear here: are you talking about Ireland leaving the euro zone (monetary union), or leaving the European Union (economic and regulatory union, i.e. freedom of movement, no trade barriers, etc)? Your title suggests the latter, but your comments suggest your concerns lie with the former.

Fratton Fred · 23-06-2012 7:58pm

The UK isn't going to leave the eu for the simple reason that they both need each other too much.

poeticseraphim · 23-06-2012 8:32pm

The only exit strategy from the Euro is by exiting the eu....the treaty of lisbon makes provisions for this.

The only way to exit the Eurozone at the moment is to leave the EU via the Lisbon treaty.

And the US is set to overtake britain's place as our biggest trading partner by 2025.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/1011/1224305578517.html

Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point

But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/

If the Euro survives Europe more than likely will not look as it does now ....the eu block may fragment and all other countries are seeing a wind own in eu trade....

poeticseraphim · 23-06-2012 8:34pm

southsiderosie wrote: »

OP, it is not really clear here: are you talking about Ireland leaving the euro zone (monetary union), or leaving the European Union (economic and regulatory union, i.e. freedom of movement, no trade barriers, etc)? Your title suggests the latter, but your comments suggest your concerns lie with the former.

Hi southsiderosie ...:-)

As i understand it ( and i could be wrong) the only way for an Eurozone country to leave the Euro is by leaving the eu which is provided for in the Lisbon treaty.

And i do think if the Eu collapses so will the EU.

southsiderosie · 23-06-2012 9:01pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

The only exit strategy from the Euro is by exiting the eu....the treaty of lisbon makes provisions for this.

The only way to exit the Eurozone at the moment is to leave the EU via the Lisbon treaty.

And the US is set to overtake britain's place as our biggest trading partner by 2025.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/1011/1224305578517.html

Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point

But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/

If the Euro survives Europe more than likely will not look as it does now ....the eu block may fragment and all other countries are seeing a wind own in eu trade....

Unless I am reading this backwards, according to those figures, the EU is the largest export market for Ireland. Also, when you add up import and export activity, by far the largest volume of trade is with the EU.

If Ireland left the EU, this would be a crushing blow to exporters because they would no longer benefit from tarriff-free trade with the Continent. And consumers would lose out on relatively cheap imported goods.

Most small countries rely on having very open trade relations - Singapore and the Netherlands being two prime examples. For Ireland to shut itself off from the EU free trade zone would be disastrous. The country simply doesn't have the natural resources and/or industrial base to survive in autarky.

SeanW · 23-06-2012 9:41pm

Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.

johnnyskeleton · 24-06-2012 10:58am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Britain has become increasingly isolated in the EU.

It looks as if there is either to be a break-up of the Euro and therefore the EU or political union.

It is clear Britain will not agree to political union.

It is in fact clear that they will not agree to more fiscal or banking union.

They are our biggest trading partner and we are their biggest trading partner in the EU.

If they leave the Eu can we remain apart of it??

Also if Britain is not to be more fully integrated into the fiscal union etc is it in our best interests to be?

Perhaps a complete departure is not definite.

But a two tier system? Would it work for Ireland to be in Europe if Britain in not fully.

I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.

Honestly it might workfor them too....we are a tiny nation they haven reason to want us in the EU.

And it looks to be increasingly bad for the country.

To be associated with the Eurozone at the momment is not good for our reputation i think.

I am unsure of our options.

But i think we need to be prepared in case the Eurozone breaks up.

What is your evidence for the chances of the euro and eu breaking up? Why is that more likely than, say, the dollar and the us breaking up? Or what about the pound and the uk?

I think you'll fine that those who say the euro is about to collapse come from two ideological camps - the first are anti-euro anyway and have been predicting the collapse for the last decade. The second believe that only financial stimulous will work and insist the ecjs reluctance to engage in same is proof that it is doomed.

Sure the euro has problems butthe entire world has problems. But while the other countries take the politically easy / economically bad path to recovery, the eu is trying the politically hard / economically good path. As it has not been tried in many other economies, obviously there is uncertainty. But if it founders the ecj still has the option of taking the other route ie quantitative easing to put them back on track. The us and uk had already shot their bolt in this regard, so I would be more concerned about them IMO.

FreudianSlippers · 24-06-2012 1:36pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Hi southsiderosie ...:-)

As i understand it ( and i could be wrong) the only way for an Eurozone country to leave the Euro is by leaving the eu which is provided for in the Lisbon treaty.

And i do think if the Eu collapses so will the EU.

There is no provision at all for a Member State to exit the Eurozone without also leaving the EU - it is not the Lisbon Treaty which forced this issue; it is just one that doesn't seem to have been anticipated in advance. That does not mean that if the Eurozone collapsed and ended tomorrow morning that the EU would fail as a result. EU membership is not conditional on Eurozone membership.

The point that is often made is about a return to the Punt when this matter of EU/EZ membership gets complex. We could not leave the EZ without also leaving the EU under current rules - a move which would severely damage our economic position in a global market. That is, unless the rules were changed. However, if all countries decided to end the Eurozone single currency then there is no reason to believe that provision wouldn't be made to allow the EU to continue.

I believe the question of closer political union is only going to happen on a Eurozone level. As to your other points about the Eurozone being debt ridden and run badly; I would disagree, our debts in comparison to other countries is fairly insignificant. The US for example doesn't seem to have any issues with credit and reputation and they're $15.8trillion in debt.

laoch na mona · 24-06-2012 3:00pm

we should only have joined the trade bloc

southsiderosie · 24-06-2012 3:18pm

SeanW wrote: »

Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.

The Swiss also have a long history of sound macroeconomic policy and careful management of their currency. Ireland does not.

A big part of the reason why Ireland's economy took off in the 1990s was because the euro conversion process essentially shackled the 90s governments - they couldn't debase the currency or run wild deficits. This, along with an educated, relatively cheap English-speaking population made Ireland popular with foreign investors, especially Americans. To leave the euro zone is to leave monetary policy solely in the hands of the Irish government - do you really think this will end well? In addition, if Ireland reneges on its commitment to remain a full member of both the euro zone and the EU, what effect do you think it will have on the willingness of outsiders to invest in the country? Given the country's reliance on imports and outside investment, this is not an idle question.

The euro convergence process brought one of the few stable periods in Ireland's economic history. As soon as the constraints of convergence came off, the government went nuts - and we see where that led to. Can anyone in this forum really claim with a straight face that the management of the Irish economy would improve by breaking with the euro and attempting to renegotiate trade policy with the remaining EU states? If someone can make that argument, I'd love to hear it.

The Corinthian · 25-06-2012 4:23pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point

But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/

I don't think you read that link, it shows that our exports to the (non-UK) EU are greater than our combined exports to both the US and UK. UK imports are higher, I'll grant you, but I don't really think that's the one we should be looking to keep...

SeanW wrote: »

Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.

Sure, but there's a price to that. As an EU member you get to have a say in European trade. As a member of the EEA, you get a fax from Brussels informing you of what the EU member states have decided. Of course you can reject this, but then you can't trade with the EU. Your choice.

OS119 · 25-06-2012 5:47pm

The Corinthian wrote: »

... As a member of the EEA, you get a fax from Brussels informing you of what the EU member states have decided. Of course you can reject this, but then you can't trade with the EU. Your choice.

while this may be the situation right now, the EU and EZ are going to change in the next 5 years or so, probably quite dramaticly. if the UK seriously started to talk about leaving the EU the other EU states would have to start making decisions about what relationship they wanted to have with the UK, and how the UK saying 'actually, its not for us' would impact on their domestic politics.

with the greatest of respect to Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, the UK - the 2nd largest economy in the EU, and joint first in terms of military capability - is not a state that will be told 'take it or leave it' by the rest of the EU. the other countries, not least Ireland, will work very hard to produce an agreement that sees the UK remain as a free trade partner with the EU, and that sees the UK remain involved in the EU's foreign policy and defence initiatives.

in 2011 Germany exported £41bn worth of goods to the UK - German industry is not going to be whispering in Mrs Merkels ear that she should make a stand on principle and, if the UK decides that it doesn't like its relationship with Brussels, be prepared to put up trade barriers between the EU and the UK. there will be a deal...

moreover, its not just that the UK will change its relationship with the EU, its that the EU will change, and that everyone will leave the EU as it curretly stands. some countries, like Germany, France, the Netherlands, will get much closer, others will be cast aside, like Greece, and others, like the UK, will be a bit 'semi-detached'.

screamer · 25-06-2012 6:04pm

Have we not seen that Europe writes the rules to suit itself..... if the big players deem that there is merit or a saving for them in getting rid of those of us on the fringes and sinking in debt, then they will make up new rules to allow us to exit the euro, without leaving the EU if that be the best case. Have we not seen new rules for Spains debt, compared to the little countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, who had to take it on as soverign debt..... the rules can and will be changed to suit the biggest players. Personally, the whole thing overstepped it's mark, it started off as the organisation for economic co-operation on coal and steel and it should have stayed like that, trade agreements, and nothing more.

southsiderosie · 26-06-2012 5:37am

screamer wrote: »

Have we not seen that Europe writes the rules to suit itself..... if the big players deem that there is merit or a saving for them in getting rid of those of us on the fringes and sinking in debt, then they will make up new rules to allow us to exit the euro, without leaving the EU if that be the best case. Have we not seen new rules for Spains debt, compared to the little countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, who had to take it on as soverign debt..... the rules can and will be changed to suit the biggest players. Personally, the whole thing overstepped it's mark, it started off as the organisation for economic co-operation on coal and steel and it should have stayed like that, trade agreements, and nothing more.

So as a small country with a tiny economy, do you think Ireland would have more leverage over trade policy or dealing with foreign creditors by being outside of the EU? In what scenario do the biggest and/or most economically powerful countries and institutions not dictate the terms of these relationships?

Bonus_Pack · 26-06-2012 3:43pm

I would be all for leaving the Eurozone. If the UK were to leave the EU then ireland should follow and there could be a perfect time for us to forge stronger links with britain by 1. Rejoining the British Commonwealth and
2. Establishing a currency pegged to sterling, if not sterling itself.

Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.

FreudianSlippers · 26-06-2012 3:53pm

Bonus_Pack wrote: »

I would be all for leaving the Eurozone. If the UK were to leave the EU then ireland should follow and there could be a perfect time for us to forge stronger links with britain by 1. Rejoining the British Commonwealth and
2. Establishing a currency pegged to sterling, if not sterling itself.

Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.

What does Britain leaving the EU have to do with us leaving the Eurozone?

goalscoringhero · 26-06-2012 4:07pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.

Which are those policies?

OS119 · 26-06-2012 6:38pm

goalscoringhero wrote: »

Which are those policies?

spending what you've got - its one step away from Fascism you know.

one day you're balancing you budget, the next you're leading a tank division into Poland. apparrently...

poeticseraphim · 26-06-2012 11:09pm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1386797/Is-Brussels-turn-Schengen-Switzerland-European-country-suggest-reintroducing-border-controls.html

Interestingly ...they are discussing re-introducing border controls of EU countries and turning their bak on the schengen...the excuse is immigrants..

But really it affect EU citizens much more than it would immigrants and turs the EU back decades...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-and-french-proposal-for-border-controls-endangers-european-unity-a-828815.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-26/eu-has-already-broken-up%E2%80%A6-they-just-haven%E2%80%99t-formalized-yet

It really would not help european business and therefore the euro...

Could it damage the euro and the eu

I thinnk it could be just as damaging as the break up of the euro if not more so

And it has been mentioned that it would be a convienent way of preventing capital flight

EU citizen's rights are being impinged on???

poeticseraphim · 26-06-2012 11:11pm

goalscoringhero wrote: »

Which are those policies?

Merkel's Austerity policies

Her immigration border control proposals...in fairness i think that is france too.

Her fiscal prudence ideology in oposition to stimulus and debt negotiation.

goalscoringhero · 26-06-2012 11:52pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Merkel's Austerity policies

Can you be more precise? What policies are these? There hasn't been too much austerity in Germany as far as I know.

In case you mean the so-called imposed austerity on other countries, it was up to the countries who have been bailed out to formulate their policies, or reject a bailout.
Neither the Greek, nor the Irish, nor the Spanish or Portuguese government chose to do so.
Why didn't they?
They were happy enough to sell out their citizens, making transforming their countries into debt-junkies who just have to produce the correct numbers on a spreadsheet to get the next tranche of bailout funds.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to sort out your own leaders first?

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Her immigration border control proposals...in fairness i think that is france too.

The initial proposal for introducing border control came from Denmark in 2011. And, Ireland and the UK never signed up to Schengen.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Her fiscal prudence ideology in oposition to stimulus and debt negotiation.

I agree with you that a write down of debt is needed. But to paint Merkel alone as the blocker for such a policy is a bit harsh, eh?

poeticseraphim · 27-06-2012 12:05am

goalscoringhero wrote: »

Can you be more precise? What policies are these? There hasn't been too much austerity in Germany as far as I know.

In case you mean the so-called imposed austerity on other countries, it was up to the countries who have been bailed out to formulate their policies, or reject a bailout.
Neither the Greek, nor the Irish, nor the Spanish or Portuguese government chose to do so.
Why didn't they?
They were happy enough to sell out their citizens, making transforming their countries into debt-junkies who just have to produce the correct numbers on a spreadsheet to get the next tranche of bailout funds.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to sort out your own leaders first?

The initial proposal for introducing border control came from Denmark in 2011. And, Ireland and the UK never signed up to Schengen.

I agree with you that a write down of debt is needed. But to paint Merkel alone as the blocker for such a policy is a bit harsh, eh?

Hi

I believe the austerity policies in the bailout terms are driven by the German administration. I present the fact that the Germans weighed up our budget before it was made public as an indication of this.

Merkel has introduced cuts on the German health service. And a lot of deregulation in businesses practises (that in and of itself may not be a bad thing)

I never suggested Irelandand Britain are a part of the schengen..however it is something that symbolizes EU unity and it could be used to coontrol capital flight.

Also it does affect us....we use the schengen to transport our export goods freely through the EU after the country of entry.

And it could symbolize or indicate a lack of feeling behind the EU ideal.

It has been suggested before ..but i think it is interesting that it may come into effect now.

I mean i am unsure ..myself ...but i do thinkthe eu and eurozone is becoming ever more unstable and uncertain..

OS119 · 27-06-2012 8:19am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

...I mean i am unsure ..myself ...but i do thinkthe eu and eurozone is becoming ever more unstable and uncertain..

while that may be true - since when did business de-regulation and telling chaotic little countries that can't run a whelk stall that thay can't borrow money from you unless they promise not to piss it up the wall become 'far right wing policies'?

Scofflaw · 27-06-2012 6:35pm

It seems to me that if the UK left the EU, there would be a special arrangement between Ireland and the UK for trade, just as there is a special joint free travel area - we're a very important trading partner for them, just as they are for us, so there would be huge pressure within the UK for such an arrangement, particularly since we're primarily an export market

On the other hand, I can't see any equivalent pressure within the EU/eurozone, because there's no one country with similar levels of trade, and particularly with such a level of exports to Ireland.

In terms of the values of each, the eurozone as a currency area is more important to us than the UK, particularly for exports:

|Exports|Exports|Imports|Imports
|Jan-Feb 2011|Jan-Feb 2012|Jan-Feb 2011|Jan-Feb 2012
Great Britain|2023854|2452253|2566582|2543301
Northern Ireland|210848|221161|163074|171791
UK|2234702|2673414|2729656|2715092
Austria|48184|50829|37662|42870
Belgium|2301919|2565742|211908|131489
Cyprus|4040|4745|327|425
Estonia|3061|1834|688|608
Finland|39658|55529|15085|14387
France|976375|735942|334030|329206
Germany|944224|1044762|641183|584692
Greece|44359|51272|4859|4301
Italy|514761|503721|130685|115844
Luxembourg|11749|9726|5798|5540
Malta|3514|4604|1481|1940
Netherlands|475142|511510|405654|329303
Portugal|66591|55474|21714|18615
Romania|48935|49422|20779|21151
Slovakia|9743|10004|9752|16800
Slovenia|3390|3201|2376|1493
Spain|474233|453411|109343|119291
Eurozone|5969878|6111728|1953324|1737955
Bulgaria|5683|8205|1640|1328
Czech Republic|101792|64457|46288|61994
Denmark|68501|84427|101229|86177
Latvia|7605|9142|6553|4301
Lithuania|6429|3039|15311|13735
Hungary|27704|27462|17236|18205
Poland|78687|94296|47785|54654
Sweden|125781|105093|66869|92707
Rest of EU|422182|396121|302911|333101
Total|8626762|9181263|4985891|4786148
GB|25.90%|29.12%|54.75%|56.73%
Eurozone|69.20%|66.57%|39.18%|36.31%
Rest of EU|4.89%|4.31%|6.08%|6.96%

Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/externaltrade/2012/trade_feb2012.pdf

The eurozone is 66-69% of our EU exports, the UK only 25-29%. In terms of imports, the UK is our biggest source. However, looking at imports and exports combined, the eurozone is more important by quite some way. The UK comes out at about 36-38% of our trade, the eurozone at 56-58%.

A further point worth making, perhaps, is that the UK is a major destination for agricultural exports rather than anything else:

|Agricultural Produce|Forestry and Fishing Produce|Industrial Produce|Unclassified Exports|Total Exports
Great Britain and NI|56.16%|33.24%|24.50%|70.16%|28.16%
Eurozone|43.84%|66.76%|75.50%|29.84%|71.84%

Of course, we still think of ourselves as a primarily agricultural-export country - but that's not even remotely true. We are, on the contrary, primarily an industrial exporter. Of our approximately €90bn in exports in 2011, only 6% was agricultural:

Period and Area|Agricultural Produce|Forestry and Fishing Produce|Industrial Produce|Unclassified Exports|Total Exports
Great Britain and NI|2740|139|11127|462|14468
Eurozone|2138.5|279.18|34290.26|196.46|36904.4
Rest of EU|136.5|17.82|2188.74|12.54|2355.6
Rest of world|840|88|38194|38|39160
Total|5855|524|85800|709|92888
%|6.30%|0.56%|92.37%|0.76%|100.00%

To some extent, I suspect the lingering impression of the UK looming larger than the eurozone as an export destination is related to its dominance as an agricultural export destination. But 92% of our exports are actually industrial, and of that, the eurozone absorbs three times more than the UK.

To come back to the original point - if the UK left the EU, it would be much better for Ireland to remain in the eurozone and EU. They are not a larger trade partner than the eurozone, they would be forced to make special arrangements for us, and we would pick up yet further FDI and European HQs - indeed, we would immediately become a massive destination for the HQs of UK companies doing business with the EU and eurozone. On balance, I rather think the UK leaving while we stay would be hugely profitable for us, although we'd lose a valuable ally within the EU.

cordially,
Scofflaw

OS119 · 27-06-2012 8:25pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

...To come back to the original point - if the UK left the EU, it would be much better for Ireland to remain in the eurozone and EU...

while i don't dispute that as the situation stands, i think that the only circumstances where the UK would actually leave the EU is where the EU is becoming a very different beast to what it is now. the UK doesn't like the EU as it stands, but it doesn't dislike it enough to walk out with the risks that that currently entails.

so, the circumstances where the UK leaves a 'future EU' may be very different to those which currently pertain - we could be looking at an EZ where the 'ever closer union' is becoming a reality with an actual functioning government, or where the shape of the EZ is radically different - no Greece, no Portugal, no Spain, maybe even just Germany, the Netherlands and a few others. there may not be a 'real' EU outside the EZ - or, alternatively, the EZ may contract into a 'superstate' and the rest of the EU changes to become more like the old free trade area - in which case the UK would be very unlikely to leave.

its all very well to say 'if the UK leaves, Ireland should not follow it as the situation stands' - but the UK isn't going to leave the EU as the current situation stands, it would only leave (imv) if the EU radically changed, and if the EU/EZ radically changes, it may be that the pro's and cons of Irelands membership will change.

Scofflaw · 27-06-2012 8:29pm

OS119 wrote: »

while i don't dispute that as the situation stands, i think that the only circumstances where the UK would actually leave the EU is where the EU is becoming a very different beast to what it is now. the UK doesn't like the EU as it stands, but it doesn't dislike it enough to walk out with the risks that that currently entails.

so, the circumstances where the UK leaves a 'future EU' may be very different to those which currently pertain - we could be looking at an EZ where the 'ever closer union' is becoming a reality with an actual functioning government, or where the shape of the EZ is radically different - no Greece, no Portugal, no Spain, maybe even just Germany, the Netherlands and a few others. there may not be a 'real' EU outside the EZ - or, alternatively, the EZ may contract into a 'superstate' and the rest of the EU changes to become more like the old free trade area - in which case the UK would be very unlikely to leave.

its all very well to say 'if the UK leaves, Ireland should not follow it as the situation stands' - but the UK isn't going to leave the EU as the current situation stands, it would only leave (imv) if the EU radically changed, and if the EU/EZ radically changes, it may be that the pro's and cons of Irelands membership will change.

Undeniably so - one might also say that of the EU were the fascist superstate some people like to believe it is, then the calculation would also be different.

I don't think the current round of integration proposals change the calculations from Ireland's perspective, though.

cordially,
Scofflaw

sarumite · 28-06-2012 8:20am

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK isn't going to leave the eu for the simple reason that they both need each other too much.

Apparently some are not so convinced as yourself.

http://www.economist.com/node/21557315

Yet the chances of Britain leaving the EU in the next few years are higher than they have ever been. A Brixit looms for several reasons.

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 12:19pm

sarumite wrote: »

Apparently some are not so convinced as yourself.

http://www.economist.com/node/21557315

Yet the chances of Britain leaving the EU in the next few years are higher than they have ever been. A Brixit looms for several reasons.

Good article - it does look like the UK is sort of stumbling towards the exit, not with any clear plan but through brinkmanship both with the other EU countries and between the UK parties:

None of the party leaders want to leave the EU, but it could happen. All have much to lose from an EU referendum, yet such a vote is starting to feel almost inevitable. How this ends is unknowable, and only partly in Britain’s hands.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 3:19pm

Bonus_Pack wrote:

Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.

It's a meaningless argument. We don't need a common currency to enjoy excellent access to the UK market - the common language, common business culture, and historical links provide a very strong foundation for that without a common currency, as indeed is shown by the existing extensive relations.

In terms of future opportunity, the UK market is well understood and already well exploited by Irish companies. We have a 'trade intensity' with the UK four times that of the next country (Belgium).

The opportunities for export growth to the UK, therefore, are far lower than the opportunities for growth in other markets where our current trade intensities are much lower. Those are the markets where Irish involvement needs the boost provided by a common currency, because we don't have the benefit of the shared history/language/culture we have with the UK.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 5:34pm

We have a 'trade intensity' with the UK four times that of the next country (Belgium).

Infairness Belgiam is not a country any longer. They have split along the Geo/linguistic divide of French vrs German and Dutch.It looks as though the French speakers will be absorbed into France and the German and Dutch speakers into Germany.

To be honest our relationship with Britain would be ok i thinnk. It suit us both and we would come to an arrangement i am sure. What would become and issue is why would Europe want us? We were partially allowed in because it suited British interests as we were a big trading partner for them they wanted us in. But really why would Europe want us without Britian?

Also how would Britain leaving the EU affect EU argicultural policy as they have had a strong voice and on eu tax policy. Would the new voices in the eu be in tune with Irish interests.

To be honest it could be argued that our agriculture industry and other industries have been choked by dependence on the UK also. There are numerous thhings to consider advantages and disadvantages there are both sides.

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 5:52pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Infairness Belgiam is not a country any longer. They have split along the Geo/linguistic divide of French vrs German and Dutch.It looks as though the French speakers will be absorbed into France and the German and Dutch speakers into Germany.

In reality Belgium is a country, just as Switzerland and Canada are.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

To be honest our relationship with Britain would be ok i thinnk. It suit us both and we would come to an arrangement i am sure. What would become and issue is why would Europe want us? We were partially allowed in because it suited British interests as we were a big trading partner for them they wanted us in. But really why would Europe want us without Britian?

Why would they want Malta, or Cyprus, or any of the other 7 countries that are smaller than Ireland?

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Also how would Britain leaving the EU affect EU argicultural policy as they have had a strong voice and on eu tax policy. Would the new voices in the eu be in tune with Irish interests.

We'd lose an opponent on agricultural policy and an ally on tax policy.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

To be honest it could be argued that our agriculture industry and other industries have been choked by dependence on the UK also. There are numerous thhings to consider advantages and disadvantages there are both sides.

As I said, the dependence of the UK on Ireland as an export market (we're their fifth biggest export market overall and NI's biggest) would guarantee a special arrangement, so trade doesn't really weigh much as a factor when considering a UK exit. And the FDI advantages to us would be enormous.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 6:07pm

Belgians have decided they no longer wish to be a country...it's intense..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932011_Belgian_political_crisis

The Flemish want a split.

The parition of Belgian is popular with it splitting and the French speakers being absorbed into France and it was discussed with Sarkozy and has high approval with the French.

The German speaking towns are expected to be absorbed into Germany.

They have not had an elected Govt since 2007 i think . And parties have been campaigning for parition since the 60's.

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 6:13pm

So effectively it is not a country or at least is soon not to be one in the former form of Belgium anyway.

It is said it could be the first peaceful breakup of a country in history.

Which is nice...i think

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 6:49pm

poeticseraphim wrote:

They have not had an elected Govt since 2007 i think .

They've had one since December...

And parties have been campaigning for parition since the 60's.

As has also been the case in Canada and various other countries.

From the point of view of current and historical trade with Belgium, it's really very silly to pre-suppose a split which hasn't happened and may never do so as if it were some kind of fact, as you're doing. It isn't a fact, because it hasn't happened.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

So effectively it is not a country or at least is soon not to be one in the former form of Belgium anyway.

It is said it could be the first peaceful breakup of a country in history.

Which is nice...i think

Well, you could ask the Czechoslovakians - or, rather, the Czechs and the Slovakians as they now are. Their split has achieved the factual status that Belgium's potential split hasn't, by virtue of having actually happened.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 28-06-2012 7:49pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

They've had one since December...

As has also been the case in Canada and various other countries.

From the point of view of current and historical trade with Belgium, it's really very silly to pre-suppose a split which hasn't happened and may never do so as if it were some kind of fact, as you're doing. It isn't a fact, because it hasn't happened.

Well, you could ask the Czechoslovakians - or, rather, the Czechs and the Slovakians as they now are. Their split has achieved the factual status that Belgium's potential split hasn't, by virtue of having actually happened.

cordially,
Scofflaw

You use the term very silly a lot:)

It has happened culturally and in sentiment. What you mean is that it has not happened formally. Which is true. It more than likely will at some point. Not certainly but likely. And it should be thought of.

Industrial housing and economic policy has already been handed over from the federal govt to the divided regions.

In many ways Belgium is a microcosm of the euro zone, a rich north is fed up with subsidising a profligate south.

Scofflaw · 28-06-2012 10:59pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

You use the term very silly a lot:)

Circumstances seem to require it. You're making arguments based on non-facts, after all.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

It has happened culturally and in sentiment. What you mean is that it has not happened formally. Which is true. It more than likely will at some point. Not certainly but likely. And it should be thought of.

Industrial housing and economic policy has already been handed over from the federal govt to the divided regions.

In many ways Belgium is a microcosm of the euro zone, a rich north is fed up with subsidising a profligate south.

And neither has yet broken up. Ergo, "Belgium is not a country" is not a fact. You might perhaps argue that Belgium is not a nation, which would be arguably true, as opposed to using a term which translates as "Belgium is not a state", which is not even arguably true.

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 1:43am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Circumstances seem to require it. You're making arguments based on non-facts, after all.

And neither has yet broken up. Ergo, "Belgium is not a country" is not a fact. You might perhaps argue that Belgium is not a nation, which would be arguably true, as opposed to using a term which translates as "Belgium is not a state", which is not even arguably true.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I actually was not arguing anything. I am merely thinking out loud to be honest. You are arguing particular points that you disagree with in my posts which is fine.:)

The Belgian Prime minister Elio Del Rupo announced his 'plan' was to as the Flemish if they were willing to seceede and to ask the people in Wallonia and Brussels if they wanted to remain united. Or all this could be a negotiating tactic to say they are not prepared to negotiate any further.

You assume a lot about me and you are reading things in my posts that are not there.I am not suggesting there that i think EU ( i think it could go either way) will break up however that it is really relevant to to the issues in the Eurozone.There are facts and there are insights. Mistakes were made in the governing of Belgian linguistic municipilities that the EU could do well to learn from and avoid repeating. They have similar problems.
I don't mean literally Belgium is not a recognised state. But it is coming very close to splitting.To the point where it was not even functioning as a country. I have relatives there and by their account it is functioning alomst like separate states in many ways and there is a lot of resentment. And there is much to be learnt from how that came about.

I do think the EU will look very different over the coming years. Which nations go along with that and which don't who knows for certain. But we can speculate and theorize. Creative thinking is as important as analytical thought.

And these issues and caretaker Govts accross Europe in Italy and until recently Greece and Belgium do not promote stability in the EU nor the image of it to markets. Which is a big issue ....confidence in European stability. Perception plays a big part as well as facts in the markets and it seems politics is being largely driven by reactions in the markets, or at least by efforts to stabilize them.

The point is not just will the EU or belgium or wherever break up..it is also do the marets think they will. What is the perception? That matters. And it can it turn affect the reality. The politcial stability in EU countries needs to be affirmed. (well in some). But as they are interlinked in their banking sectors political shakes affect the markets throughout exposed countries. Markets react to riots and lack of elected Govt and political stalemates even if officials do not admit the instability. The markets react to it people react to it. And all these factors contribute to instability within the Eurozone and affect economies which further affect politics. The Eurozone and the EU has not broken up and may be far from it but it has to convince the markets of that. And stable govts are needed. Instabilty in Belgium Greece caretaker Govts in Italy and riots in Greece Spain and Italy affcets stabilty in the markets , Govt and society elsewhere.And it does not promote the perception of a stable Europe. And perhaps the reality is it is unstable at the moment.

Scofflaw · 29-06-2012 1:55am

poeticseraphim wrote:

I do think the EU will look very different over the coming years. Which nations go along with that and which don't who knows for certain. But we can speculate and theorize. Creative thinking is as important as analytical thought.

Sure - and perhaps we could go back to applying both of those to the topic of the thread...?

cordially,
Scofflaw

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 2:35am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sure - and perhaps we could go back to applying both of those to the topic of the thread...?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Ok well persume for a moment Britain leaves the EU or it's role significantly diminishes. It has always been a voice of independance and support. What leverage does Ireland have. Our politicans have proven to be soft negotiators. Do EU politicians have enough invested in Ireland not to walk all over us or are they simply out for their own countries. It seems this way. There has been an arguement we are so small we would be blown away outside the EU..but what if we are so small we get blown away in it without Britain? And what of NI?? If we are not the gate to london why would the want us enough to treat us fairly? Or even want us at all?

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 2:41am

On the other hand we could become the Hongkong of the west...or maybe thats too ambitious

But one of the reasons Ireland could not be like hong kong (one of the many) was that Britain was not like China and asia no where near but the EU is pretty big.

Could we be a western hong kong (bit of leap of imagination) could we be east meets eu meets America/britain???

It could be our thing....or is just ridiculous??

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 9:33am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

Ok well persume for a moment Britain leaves the EU or it's role significantly diminishes. It has always been a voice of independance and support. What leverage does Ireland have. Our politicans have proven to be soft negotiators. Do EU politicians have enough invested in Ireland not to walk all over us or are they simply out for their own countries. It seems this way. There has been an arguement we are so small we would be blown away outside the EU..but what if we are so small we get blown away in it without Britain? And what of NI?? If we are not the gate to london why would the want us enough to treat us fairly? Or even want us at all?

I find it ever so slightly perplexing that you’re so preoccupied with the UK, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, and its future within the EU, while simultaneously dismissing Belgium, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, as essentially not being a real country?

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 4:34pm

djpbarry wrote: »

I find it ever so slightly perplexing that you’re so preoccupied with the UK, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, and its future within the EU, while simultaneously dismissing Belgium, a kingdom comprised of multiple constituent countries, as essentially not being a real country?

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity. People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

We have a greater trading relationship with Britain and we share the same island with a British state.

If you think Belgium has as much impact in the EU orthe World or Ireland as Britain i think you would be mistaken. And that is what couns impact..

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 8:31pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic.

Well, yes. The topic of a thread that you started.

My point here is that you are seriously over-stating the significance of Ireland's dependence on the UK. Simultaneously, you're dismissing a country as being insignificant relative to Ireland when it has a population and economy more than twice as large.

sarumite · 29-06-2012 10:03pm

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity. People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

What is you definition of "distant possibility"

The scots will go to the polls within the next two years where they will be asked explicitly to decide on whether they want independence or not.

poeticseraphim · 30-06-2012 12:30am

sarumite wrote: »

What is you definition of "distant possibility" The scots will go to the polls within the next two years where they will be asked explicitly to decide on whether they want independence or not.

Good point actually....interestingly do you think that they will secede from the UK?

Scofflaw · 30-06-2012 3:04am

poeticseraphim wrote: »

I am only concerned with it as it is the topic. And one of our main trading partners.It is an amalgamation of countries ....one of which is part of our island.The reason i refer to Belgium in this way is because the Belgians have made political and economic moves towards a split. The Belgians seem not to want to be a country together. They are no longer a nation of one people.

The Scots and Welsh express this too it is seen as a distant possiblity.

That's...well, it's surprisingly inaccurate. The Scots are gearing up to actually vote on a split, the Belgians aren't, but you regard the Belgian split as a done deal and the Scottish one as a 'distant possibility'?

Please don't argue from your own made-up facts. There's a limit to the toleration of such an approach.

poeticseraphim wrote: »

People do tend to want self determination politically and symbolically with their own tribe.

We have a greater trading relationship with Britain and we share the same island with a British state.

If you think Belgium has as much impact in the EU orthe World or Ireland as Britain i think you would be mistaken. And that is what couns impact..

Actually, a trade partner with less international clout is arguably a preferable trade partner. So you're suggesting something which is a better deal from the point of view of the UK, particularly if we were both outside the EU, since in that situation we would seriously lack clout.

I'm not sure where this rush back to the UK's embrace is coming from - you're by no means its only exponent - but I do find it peculiar. Is it a case of keeping a hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse?

cordially,
Scofflaw

OS119 · 30-06-2012 8:24am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Is it a case of keeping a hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse?

speaking as a Brit, i find it interesting, but the answer is fairly obvious - for Ireland the EU was not only an opportunity, but an organisation/structure that had a friendlier face than the UK, as well as being an organisation that would, to some degree, put the UK in its place with regard to the UK's treatment of Ireland. in effect, that the previously subject state got a bunch of new friends, big friends, nicer friends, friends who wouldn't hesitate to stamp on the toes of the 'bully' state.

this all worked fine for 30-odd years, and then when it all went tits up, the nice friends friends turned out to be just as self-serving and prepared to fcuk over their new little friend as Britain had been when it serves their interests.

so, people think that maybe Britain wasn't so bad after all - it lends us money, its publicly repentant about its 'less glorious' behaviour in the past, may of us have lived/worked there and been made welcome, its somewhere where, by law, we aren't 'aliens', we speak the same language, we watch the same TV, it doesn't ask to see our budget before our government publishes it, and we are massively interdependant in trade, culture, and security terms. perhaps, while Britain may, on occasion, be a bit difficult, and throw its weight around, and be a git, its 'our' occasionally difficult, though powerful, git.

to me, it doesn't mean that people are saying 'Europe is crap, rejoin the UK', it means people are saying that some of the (unrealistic?) shine has come off the EU, and that despite the, err... 'difficult' history between the UK and Ireland, Britain is being rather decent and helpful.

djpbarry · 30-06-2012 10:01am

OS119 wrote: »

this all worked fine for 30-odd years, and then when it all went tits up, the nice friends friends turned out to be just as self-serving and prepared to fcuk over their new little friend as Britain had been when it serves their interests.

Let's please not compare the actions of the EU with those of the British Empire (or any other Imperial power, for that matter).

IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU MUST IRELAND LEAVE TOO?

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