Property prices are on the way back up!

christmas2012 · 25-06-2012 03:24PM

I still think valuations are very high,we are in a recession people are losing their jobs,banks are bust,and they are not giving out mortgages easy either..

It should be at least 10 - 20 years before house prices creep up,but that wont stop a greedy property seller.

As long as people excercise common sense(Even when we are out of this recession),and do not panic buy in droves i think house prices could stay low..

average_runner · 25-06-2012 03:27PM

christmas2012 wrote: »

I still think valuations are very high,we are in a recession people are losing their jobs,banks are bust,and they are not giving out mortgages easy either..

It should be at least 10 - 20 years before house prices creep up,but that wont stop a greedy property seller.

As long as people excercise common sense(Even when we are out of this recession),and do not panic buy in droves i think house prices could stay low..

In fairness banks are giving out mortages the proper way now, unlike before.

I know of 4 people with decent jobs that have bought in last 4 months.

Alot of houses gone sold now too i notice on the bus journey in.

goodie2shoes · 25-06-2012 03:38PM

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

christmas2012 · 25-06-2012 03:41PM

I think if people dont panic and get drawn into property speculation like before,the house prices will stay low,its panic and talk like this that has people running out like lemmings like before,if people hold off the prices will stay low,people now are getting drawn into talk of ''if you dont buy now now NOW..you wont get a better deal''...people need to start using their heads and stand off..

seamus · 25-06-2012 03:53PM

christmas2012 wrote: »

I think if people dont panic and get drawn into property speculation like before,the house prices will stay low,its panic and talk like this that has people running out like lemmings like before,if people hold off the prices will stay low,people now are getting drawn into talk of ''if you dont buy now now NOW..you wont get a better deal''...people need to start using their heads and stand off..

Isn't that exactly the same kind of nonsense as, "If people stop talking down the economy, we'll be grand?"

It's not possible to "talk up" the property market any more than it was to talk it down.

Theboinkmaster · 25-06-2012 04:00PM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

You're wrong.

It's not as if when we do reach the bottom prices will rocket again - they'll stagnate for years.

So by waiting you may see another 10-30% decline in prices OR if we're at bottom at most the price will remain the same. So on a €300k house you can pay the same in 1-3 years, or if I'm right pay €200-250k.

christmas2012 · 25-06-2012 04:16PM

seamus wrote: »

Isn't that exactly the same kind of nonsense as, "If people stop talking down the economy, we'll be grand?"

It's not possible to "talk up" the property market any more than it was to talk it down.

It IS possible to talk up the economy , bertie aherne was famous for it,he said in 2005 there was NO recession at all,which was complete nonsense but people got sucked in by it,and they kept buying and taking out two mortgages,and buying up property like there was no tommorrow,and car loans etc..

Property sellers and people who are speculators can easily talk up house prices,even though we are in a recession,these people may have vested interests,including economists,who bought second and third homes now trying to flog them for a dayceeent roighsh price..

If people refuse to believe the hype (and run out and panic buy in their droves) and the stand off continues house prices may stay low,just on this alone..

thewing · 25-06-2012 04:18PM

With mortgage lending down, volumes of houses for sale in Dublin significantly down (a 1000 less houses approx for sale in Limerick than in Dublin) and plenty fat pay-off cheques floating around from public sector retirees, I think we have the ingredients of a DCB on our hands.

Along with MIR due to run out at year end, people who have cash are rushing out to buy. A lot of 30-35 age group couples living and working in Dublin have seen houses fall within their reach (4.5 times joint income being given out by banks - couple of 100k could get 450 provided they have 20% deposit) and are heading out to buy.

As far as rest of country goes, volumes are also very low, but long term value has been reached in pockets of the country.

I reckon we will return to monthly drops around the turn of the year. Bailout 2 will have have disastrous effects on housing market as the government slash and burn incomes further than they will have done in the previous 5 years.

Tighten your seatbelts folks.....

WhatNowForUs? · 25-06-2012 04:29PM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

Good God help us all.

25-06-2012 04:33PM

I would say there's quite a fall to go tbh.

It's sickening that this was headline news today on the radio because some gimps will actually fall for it.

robd · 25-06-2012 04:37PM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

This is a very naive statement goodie2shoes. You should never ordinarily buy in a market that is trending down. It's not about buying at the bottom, this is irrelevant as no-one will know the bottom till after the event. If you wait till houses are definitely rising again (say 5%+ per year over a 2 year period) you are hugely reducing the risk of negative equity if anything goes wrong, such as prolonged job loss, need to emigrate, increase in family size necessitating a move to bigger house, etc. etc. This is basic common sense that applies to all types of markets.

And as another poster replied to you, houses will not jump up. They'll like on slightly track inflation + a bit more for overshoot. You won't miss out.

I presume your last statement is a little tongue in cheek.

McTigs · 25-06-2012 04:44PM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

They won't shoot back up, once they bottom out they'll stay bottomed out.... for ages.

goodie2shoes wrote: »

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

codswallop! whatever percent off the boom price doesn't imply "value"

goodie2shoes wrote: »

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

€134.20!?! Whoop di do! What's he goona do? Release the equity and buy himself a new toaster?

Idbatterim · 25-06-2012 06:55PM

there will be 3,500,000,000 taken out of the economy in the budget and bear in mind it is selling season now!

goodie2shoes · 25-06-2012 07:37PM

robd wrote: »

This is a very naive statement goodie2shoes. You should never ordinarily buy in a market that is trending down. It's not about buying at the bottom, this is irrelevant as no-one will know the bottom till after the event. If you wait till houses are definitely rising again (say 5%+ per year over a 2 year period) you are hugely reducing the risk of negative equity if anything goes wrong, such as prolonged job loss, need to emigrate, increase in family size necessitating a move to bigger house, etc. etc. This is basic common sense that applies to all types of markets.

And as another poster replied to you, houses will not jump up. They'll like on slightly track inflation + a bit more for overshoot. You won't miss out.

I presume your last statement is a little tongue in cheek.

basic common sense that applies to all markets? really? like we experienced during the boom you mean? or like England enjoyed during the late '80s? how do you know prices will not jump up? how do you know people will not miss out?

it never fails to amaze me how we as a nation of such property experts as you good self ever suffered such a property calamity in the first place. perhaps someone like yourself with such undoubted expertise can shed some light on this?:D

robd · 25-06-2012 07:50PM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

basic common sense that applies to all markets? really? like we experienced during the boom you mean? or like England enjoyed during the late '80s? how do you know prices will not jump up? how do you know people will not miss out?

it never fails to amaze me how we as a nation of such property experts as you good self ever suffered such a property calamity in the first place. perhaps someone with undoubted expertise can shed some light on this?:D

goodie2shoes. I profited from property. I exited prior to the crash. The crash was blindingly obviously to those with an understanding of markets who didn't think they were some kind of finance god, ala most property developers and speculators. It was being debated here and on thepropertypin.com with some of us giving detailed analysis as to the why it was going to crash and others shouting loudly and jumping up and down with their fingers in their ears. There's a huge difference between expert analysis and what the masses do. More to the point there's a huge difference to what vested interests want the masses to do. This is how people become wealthy any why wealth isn't evenly distributed.

Again there are detailed reasons as to why the property market will not just shoot back up. They have been given already on this and various other threads with links to various independent reports and statistical releases are given too. This analysis and opinion is given for free, all you have to do is spend the time reading the threads. Alternatively take courses in macro economics, micro economics, finance and other related courses at university level and you'll build up the knowledge. Here's a hint where to start with reading. Look at mortgage lending figures, published each month by Central Bank. This is the main indicator of asset price inflation in any economic model. Cash is irrelevant as it's not new money; you need to understand how banking works in an economic model to understand that statement. It's spiraling downwards which is thus where the property market is going.

jsd1004 · 25-06-2012 07:54PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

You're wrong.

It's not as if when we do reach the bottom prices will rocket again - they'll stagnate for years.

So by waiting you may see another 10-30% decline in prices OR if we're at bottom at most the price will remain the same. So on a €300k house you can pay the same in 1-3 years, or if I'm right pay €200-250k.

We are back in 2005 again..just the opposite. The market is a market like any other. The price of a commoditity is what someone else is willing to pay for it irrespective of yield or any other factor. Prices might go up, they might go down, they might stagnate. It depends on lots of factors micro and macro. Yes employment might go down it also might boom. Interest rates are now historically low and look like going lower but if employment and inflation (including house inflation) pick up (unlikely at present in EZ) they are going to stay low. Anyone who says they know or ridicules someone elses opionion are the one who are wrong.

the groutch · 25-06-2012 10:43PM

EAs are increasing the asking prices in advance of the mini-rush of people buying before mortgage interest relief is abolished.

christmas2012 · 25-06-2012 10:45PM

Bertie aherne talked up the economy in a boom - saying there wouldnt be a crash when it was crashing..

Economists even have vested interests these people stupidly bought second and third homes and are now trying to flog them off on you..

Wake up,dont panic buy in droves,there is still a property stand off - let it last - and house prices will stay low..

DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE - OTHERWISE PRICES WILL SHOOT BACK UP!!!FFS LIKE THE LAST TIME!!!

true · 25-06-2012 11:41PM

djk1000 wrote: »

Dead cat bounce.

Lots of civil servants taking early retirement are cash buying properties with their lump sums as an investment.

If Angela Merkal sneezes, prices will drop again.

Correct, most estate agents will privately tell you that. The lump sum cash payments retiring public servants get on retirement is 18 months finishing salary. In the case of a garda aged 50 retiring this is enough to buy two apartments in parts of the country. This gives them rental income to supplement their Garda pension.

goodie2shoes · 25-06-2012 11:57PM

the groutch wrote: »

EAs are increasing the asking prices in advance of the mini-rush of people buying before mortgage interest relief is abolished.

i recall Nigel Lawson doing something similar and the UK property market took off like a rocket. the same will happen here albeit with less severe acceleration.

take it from me once the banks begin lending again (and if the noises coming from Brussels are to be believed, that will be quite soon), the market here will take off.

there is huge pent up demand, many of those who have put off buying are desperate to get their own place, starting a family whilst living with mammy is never a good idea, they know rent is dead money, they realize there is excellent value out there.

when things change, they will change with frightening speed. you heard it here first folks!

Agent J · 26-06-2012 12:07AM

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i recall Nigel Lawson doing something similar and the UK property market took off like a rocket. the same will happen here albeit with less severe acceleration.

take it from me once the banks begin lending again (and if the noises coming from Brussels are to be believed, that will be quite soon), the market here will take off.

there is huge pent up demand, many of those who have put off buying are desperate to get their own place, starting a family whilst living with mammy is never a good idea, they know rent is dead money, they realize there is excellent value out there.

when things change, they will change with frightening speed. you heard it here first folks!

Hi Tom Parlon

How is the CIF treating you these days?

Or Perhaps you are Donnie Cassidy?

Ray Palmer · 26-06-2012 09:52AM

robd wrote: »

I profited from property. I exited prior to the crash. The crash was blindingly obviously to those with an understanding of markets who didn't think they were some kind of finance god, ala most property developers and speculators.

You gambled and won. Nothing amazing about that. Our property bubble didn't die naturally. The world economy fell apart. I doubt you predicted that. That caused the property crash here. It would have happened at some point but maybe a year later.
Don't kid your self that you are any different from somebody studying the form of the hourses.

Theboinkmaster · 26-06-2012 10:07AM

jsd1004 wrote: »

We are back in 2005 again..just the opposite. The market is a market like any other. The price of a commoditity is what someone else is willing to pay for it irrespective of yield or any other factor. Prices might go up, they might go down, they might stagnate. It depends on lots of factors micro and macro. Yes employment might go down it also might boom. Interest rates are now historically low and look like going lower but if employment and inflation (including house inflation) pick up (unlikely at present in EZ) they are going to stay low. Anyone who says they know or ridicules someone elses opionion are the one who are wrong.

House prices are only going one way and if you think otherwise you are wrong and anyone coming on here spouting EA/vested interest bullsh!t or with an uninformed herd mentality deserves ridicule.

Ray Palmer · 26-06-2012 10:30AM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

House prices are only going one way and if you think otherwise you are wrong and anyone coming on here spouting EA/vested interest bullsh!t or with an uninformed herd mentality deserves ridicule.

anybody saying they are only going one way and it is down is part of the herd. Nobody can be so sure to say the other side is "wrong"

gurramok · 26-06-2012 10:31AM

Ray Palmer wrote: »

You gambled and won. Nothing amazing about that. Our property bubble didn't die naturally. The world economy fell apart. I doubt you predicted that. That caused the property crash here. It would have happened at some point but maybe a year later.
Don't kid your self that you are any different from somebody studying the form of the hourses.

Our bubble started to die a year before the big Lehmans crash in 2007. The world crisis made it worse.

true wrote:

In the case of a garda aged 50 retiring this is enough to buy two apartments in parts of the country. This gives them rental income to supplement their Garda pension.

Considering the cheapest apartments are in the back end of nowhere, where are those renters to support the Garda pension?

robd · 26-06-2012 11:13AM

Ray Palmer wrote: »

You gambled and won. Nothing amazing about that. Our property bubble didn't die naturally. The world economy fell apart. I doubt you predicted that. That caused the property crash here. It would have happened at some point but maybe a year later.
Don't kid your self that you are any different from somebody studying the form of the hourses.

As an other posted replied, it did die naturally. It was dead over 12 months before world economy collapsed. I predicted the crash, albeit I was early out, which is they way you want it. You got to leave something for the next guy. I did not predict the extent of the crash, or the Euro problems.

They shear scale of the price rises and the cost versus wages was unreal at the top of the bubble. It was a seriously dangerous position. To think anything else is to not understand cheap credit and binging. The worst thing is the modern finance system encourages this to the benefit of few elite. The average man has ended up with no job, debt up to their eyes, depression and even suicide. The human side to the disgusting system we created.

I'm not a gambler. I'm cautious. Big difference.

StillWaters · 26-06-2012 11:37AM

true wrote: »

djk1000 wrote: »

Dead cat bounce.

Lots of civil servants taking early retirement are cash buying properties with their lump sums as an investment.

If Angela Merkal sneezes, prices will drop again.

Correct, most estate agents will privately tell you that. The lump sum cash payments retiring public servants get on retirement is 18 months finishing salary. In the case of a garda aged 50 retiring this is enough to buy two apartments in parts of the country. This gives them rental income to supplement their Garda pension.

But this report excluded cash sales.

Theboinkmaster · 26-06-2012 11:49AM

Ray Palmer wrote: »

anybody saying they are only going one way and it is down is part of the herd. Nobody can be so sure to say the other side is "wrong"

No no no - anyone who is informed and has done their research, reviewed the economic data etc knows prices (overall) are only going to continue going down. Yes i am sure.

Just do the research online and it's the only conclusion any intelligent person could reach.

TwoShedsJackson · 26-06-2012 12:19PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

No no no - anyone who is informed and has done their research, reviewed the economic data etc knows prices (overall) are only going to continue going down. Yes i am sure.

Just do the research online and it's the only conclusion any intelligent person could reach.

You're almost certainly right, but how is this any different from the 'property prices can only go up for ever' attitude during the 'boom'?

strandroad · 26-06-2012 12:35PM

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

You're almost certainly right, but how is this any different from the 'property prices can only go up for ever' attitude during the 'boom'?

The difference is there is no research supporting the 'property prices can only go up for ever' belief! I don't count relying on the Indo and Bertie Aherne as research, of course...

Property prices are on the way back up!

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