Property prices are on the way back up!

goodie2shoes

HOUSE prices increased by 0.2pc in May with Dublin up for a third month in a row although year-on-year there was a drop.

According to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office, the 0.2pc increase in May compares with a drop of 1.1pc in April and 1.2pc in May of last year.

National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.

And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.

The price of properties excluding Dublin rose by 0.1pc in May compared with a decline of 2.1pc in May last year.

Dublin house prices are 55pc lower than at their highest level in 2007.

Dublin apartment prices are 61pc lower than in February of the same year.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-up-02pc-in-may-but-dublin-climbs-for-third-month-in-row-3149448.html

chin_grin

67% of statistics are made up on the spot.

I Heart Internet

I'm worried.

I just feel like I need to get on the property ladder now or I'll never be able to afford to buy a place!!

goodie2shoes

i have statistics which can prove you wrong.

djk1000

Dead cat bounce.

Lots of civil servants taking early retirement are cash buying properties with their lump sums as an investment.

If Angela Merkal sneezes, prices will drop again.

biko

From After Hours

It could be temporary. And what about the rest of the nation?

goodie2shoes

biko wrote: »

From After Hours

It could be temporary.

3 months in a row!
are you mad?

goodie2shoes

biko wrote: »

From After Hours

And what about the rest of the nation?

figures for Leitrim were not considered statistically relevant.

seamus

3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.

TheDriver

better run down and take out 3 more mortgages on the strength of the rise........

daltonmd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

3 months in a row!
are you mad?

When this:


National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.
And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.


Changes to this:


National prices ROSE by X in the year ended May.
And in Dublin, prices were X HIGHER than a year ago.


Then you know house prices are in recovery.


3 months isn't temporary? So this to you is a definate recovery that is ongoing?





Ok so.

jimmycrackcorm

I Heart Internet wrote: »

I'm worried.

I just feel like I need to get on the property ladder now or I'll never be able to afford to buy a place!!

Don't worry - there'll be a soft landing.

gurramok

seamus wrote: »

3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.

They can't be all in Dublin?:rolleyes: 2630 mortgages issued in Q1 2012 nationwide.

Mortgage lending continues its downward slide in Q1 2102, the raise(if its true) must be from cash sales? Total drawdowns still decreasing. And definitely from a tiny number of transactions which are down 90%+ from 2007.

http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_Statistics/IBFPwC_Mortgage_Market_Profile_Q1_2012.sflb.ashx

IBF wrote:

In Q1 2012, 2,630 mortgage loans were issued. This represents a decrease in lending of 19.3%
compared with Q1 2011 and a decrease of 31.8% compared with the previous quarter

Roxee

Well I have a cousin who's a solicitor and said they've seen a steady rise in conveyancing business in the last 6 months. They're now doing probably 8 times as much as they were at the height of recession.

That's not a made up statistic, that's the reality for that solicitor's office. So if more people are getting back in the market, it should follow that prices will creep up, no?

Theboinkmaster

What happens when interest rates rise from their current historical lows.
What happens when unemployment rises to above 15% next year.
What happens when property tax is introduced/increased.
What happens when taxes are raised again in this December's budget.
What happens when Narma releases properties to the market.

Overall prices are only going one way and that's down. Anyone else who begs to differ is either a desparate vested interest or just retarded :rolleyes:

whippet

all this generalization is nonsense.

The right properties in the right locations will always have demand, now that there are some willing buyers about these prime properties will see slight increases.

However, the vast majority of properties up for sale in ireland would not be classified as prime properties.

There are far too many Celtic Tiger McMansions and Generic Bubble time semi-d's for sale which if they can be sold will only be achieving minuscule prices.

Ignore asking prices on daft and myhome.ie .. they are meaningless, anyone who has either bought or sold in the recent past will say that Asking prices do not reflect anything like the actual selling prices.

Ray Palmer

seamus wrote: »

3rd month in a row for Dublin. First time since properties started the downward trend.

In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

This would indicate that despite all of the scoffing about claims that Dublin is "running out" of properties, demand for properties in the capital appears to be on the up, which would also tie into anecdotal claims of there being large groups of people at weekend viewings, and more people being approved for mortgages.

Definitely early doors though. The tiny figures involved indicate that it's still a very fragile market.

The whole running out of property would be displayed like this. The point was that the need will increase and supply wouldn't cope. Price rise would happen first as supply doesn't meet demand.
Very minor change. I think it is better for everybody if the market stabilised.
I am still curious what will happen to the larger houses around the city. Lots of 5 + bed houses close to the city. Who will want or be able to afford to keep them? Fuel is not going to get cheaper. The could end up split up like older houses but with so many apartments there won't be any need.

daltonmd

Roxee wrote: »

Well I have a cousin who's a solicitor and said they've seen a steady rise in conveyancing business in the last 6 months. They're now doing probably 8 times as much as they were at the height of recession.

That's not a made up statistic, that's the reality for that solicitor's office. So if more people are getting back in the market, it should follow that prices will creep up, no?

8 times more than the height of the boom?????

shopaholic01

Ask any estate agent and they will tell you that the actual drop is at least 60% from the peak - 70% if you're serious about selling.


But hell, the first bubble was a fairytale, we might as well have a sequel.

robd

daltonmd wrote: »

8 times more than the height of the boom?????

He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

There's a tendency amongst people to quote stats that fit their story.

Lots of solicitors have gone out of business over the last 4 years due to relying heavily on conveyancing which totally dried up. There were way to many solicitors practices to meet normal non bubble needs. Most that went bust weren't sufficiently diversified. That's the real story.

daltonmd

robd wrote: »

He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

Oh, sorry, just noticed that lol - apologies poster!!

Thanks robd.

Snakeblood

shopaholic01 wrote: »

Ask any estate agent and they will tell you that the actual drop is at least 60% from the peak - 70% if you're serious about selling.

Any estate agent will tell you anything to get you to buy or sell your house to be fair.

christmas2012

I think this is very irresponsible of people to be talking up a property boom,especailly in a recession,where people are still losing their jobs,how do they propose people pay for these prices...

As far as i can see where i live prices are still down,thats because there is a sort of a property stand off , where people are simply not buying ,there fore prices stay low ,rock bottom.

What will drive house prices up,talk like this,and people who are stupid and run out and panic buy in their droves..

Be responsible for your actions and dont panic buy unless you want them to dictate the prices in the housing market again!

shopaholic01

Snakeblood wrote: »

Any estate agent will tell you anything to get you to buy or sell your house to be fair.

True, but it's in their best interest to get as high a price as possible, yet sellers are still told to expect 60-70% off boom prices. Buyers are too cautious, and lack of finance means it is a buyer's market for those who can secure it.

strandroad

seamus wrote: »

In general, any upwardness appears to be the house market in Dublin dragging everyone else along kicking and screaming.

The properly significant figures are the increase in Dublin house prices, while Dublin apartment prices saw a drop again.

I think that the market has fragmented and the stats go up because of mid-range family houses (3bed+) in Dublin. I am looking for a smaller house and have a number of properties bookmarked to check on regularly, have had for months; they don't seem to be going anywhere and the prices keep ticking down, probably a lot like with apartments - no rush at all. At the same time the supply of larger houses in the same areas is very limited, they are not too many and they seem to disappear much faster if reasonably priced. A house in our street took only 2-3 weeks to sell, and houses nearby don't hang around either unless very overpriced.

robd

daltonmd wrote: »

When this:


National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.
And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.


Changes to this:


National prices ROSE by X in the year ended May.
And in Dublin, prices were X HIGHER than a year ago.


Then you know house prices are in recovery.

Agree 100%.

Hard to weed though this thread and work out who's just being sarcastic with their favorable comments to this news and who's just doesn't get it.

The market is too stagnant and Dublin is too small for month and month statistics to be meaningful. Year on year are all that matters. The average YOY reduction has been circa 15% for 4 years now. It peaked at 20% 4 months ago. So far all it has done is return towards the normal over the last 4 years.

Anything in the 10-20% range YOY is really a non event. It's still going down at a reasonably high rate.

That's the bit the property VI's don't like to spin.

ABajaninCork

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics...:D

daltonmd

robd wrote: »

Agree 100%.

Hard to weed though this thread and work out who's just being sarcastic with their favorable comments to this news and who's just doesn't get it.

The market is too stagnant and Dublin is too small for month and month statistics to be meaningful. Year on year are all that matters. The average YOY reduction has been circa 15% for 4 years now. It peaked at 20% 4 months ago. So far all it has done is return towards the normal over the last 4 years.

Anything in the 10-20% range YOY is really a non event. It's still going down at a reasonably high rate.

That's the bit the property VI's don't like to spin.

What do "increases", "decreases" and "dead cat bounces" all have in common?

You can only see them for what they really are - after the fact.

Months/years of increases - Boom
Months/years of decreases - Bust


This looks to me like a classical DCB.

Millem

I wouldn't pay any attention to statistics or EA. Asking prices are just that, I would
love to see sold prices being published. I know someone who bought a house recently a 3 bed with garage semi detached in a lovely area in SCD. The asking price was €450,000 the sold price was €350,000. My neighbour sold their house 18 months ago a 4bed detached with garage in SCD asking price was €650,000 sold price was €565,000. There is a big difference between asking and selling prices.

Gurgle

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Overall prices are only going one way and that's down. Anyone else who begs to differ is either a desparate vested interest or just retarded :rolleyes:

Overall prices will trend with the local, national, continental and global economy, which is rather unstable in the western world at the moment.

Anyone who claims to know otherwise is either deluded or lying or both.

Zipppy

robd wrote: »

He said 8 times more than the height of the recession. As in they were probably doing 1 house every 2 months now there are doing 4 per month.

There's a tendency amongst people to quote stats that fit their story.

Lots of solicitors have gone out of business over the last 4 years due to relying heavily on conveyancing which totally dried up. There were way to many solicitors practices to meet normal non bubble needs. Most that went bust weren't sufficiently diversified. That's the real story.

Height of the recession???

ehhh..we haven't got there yet..

Wait till PAYE tax increases kick in next year, welafe cuts, property taxes, water rates, cuts to public sector pay, more job losses, more businesses closing down, more house repossessions, bailout no 2, banks needing billions more capital..

The recession is only started folks :mad:

christmas2012

I still think valuations are very high,we are in a recession people are losing their jobs,banks are bust,and they are not giving out mortgages easy either..

It should be at least 10 - 20 years before house prices creep up,but that wont stop a greedy property seller.

As long as people excercise common sense(Even when we are out of this recession),and do not panic buy in droves i think house prices could stay low..

average_runner

christmas2012 wrote: »

I still think valuations are very high,we are in a recession people are losing their jobs,banks are bust,and they are not giving out mortgages easy either..

It should be at least 10 - 20 years before house prices creep up,but that wont stop a greedy property seller.

As long as people excercise common sense(Even when we are out of this recession),and do not panic buy in droves i think house prices could stay low..

In fairness banks are giving out mortages the proper way now, unlike before.

I know of 4 people with decent jobs that have bought in last 4 months.

Alot of houses gone sold now too i notice on the bus journey in.

goodie2shoes

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

christmas2012

I think if people dont panic and get drawn into property speculation like before,the house prices will stay low,its panic and talk like this that has people running out like lemmings like before,if people hold off the prices will stay low,people now are getting drawn into talk of ''if you dont buy now now NOW..you wont get a better deal''...people need to start using their heads and stand off..

seamus

christmas2012 wrote: »

I think if people dont panic and get drawn into property speculation like before,the house prices will stay low,its panic and talk like this that has people running out like lemmings like before,if people hold off the prices will stay low,people now are getting drawn into talk of ''if you dont buy now now NOW..you wont get a better deal''...people need to start using their heads and stand off..

Isn't that exactly the same kind of nonsense as, "If people stop talking down the economy, we'll be grand?"

It's not possible to "talk up" the property market any more than it was to talk it down.

Theboinkmaster

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

You're wrong.

It's not as if when we do reach the bottom prices will rocket again - they'll stagnate for years.

So by waiting you may see another 10-30% decline in prices OR if we're at bottom at most the price will remain the same. So on a €300k house you can pay the same in 1-3 years, or if I'm right pay €200-250k.

christmas2012

seamus wrote: »

Isn't that exactly the same kind of nonsense as, "If people stop talking down the economy, we'll be grand?"

It's not possible to "talk up" the property market any more than it was to talk it down.

It IS possible to talk up the economy , bertie aherne was famous for it,he said in 2005 there was NO recession at all,which was complete nonsense but people got sucked in by it,and they kept buying and taking out two mortgages,and buying up property like there was no tommorrow,and car loans etc..

Property sellers and people who are speculators can easily talk up house prices,even though we are in a recession,these people may have vested interests,including economists,who bought second and third homes now trying to flog them for a dayceeent roighsh price..

If people refuse to believe the hype (and run out and panic buy in their droves) and the stand off continues house prices may stay low,just on this alone..

thewing

With mortgage lending down, volumes of houses for sale in Dublin significantly down (a 1000 less houses approx for sale in Limerick than in Dublin) and plenty fat pay-off cheques floating around from public sector retirees, I think we have the ingredients of a DCB on our hands.

Along with MIR due to run out at year end, people who have cash are rushing out to buy. A lot of 30-35 age group couples living and working in Dublin have seen houses fall within their reach (4.5 times joint income being given out by banks - couple of 100k could get 450 provided they have 20% deposit) and are heading out to buy.

As far as rest of country goes, volumes are also very low, but long term value has been reached in pockets of the country.

I reckon we will return to monthly drops around the turn of the year. Bailout 2 will have have disastrous effects on housing market as the government slash and burn incomes further than they will have done in the previous 5 years.

Tighten your seatbelts folks.....

WhatNowForUs?

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

Good God help us all.

I would say there's quite a fall to go tbh.

It's sickening that this was headline news today on the radio because some gimps will actually fall for it.

robd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

This is a very naive statement goodie2shoes. You should never ordinarily buy in a market that is trending down. It's not about buying at the bottom, this is irrelevant as no-one will know the bottom till after the event. If you wait till houses are definitely rising again (say 5%+ per year over a 2 year period) you are hugely reducing the risk of negative equity if anything goes wrong, such as prolonged job loss, need to emigrate, increase in family size necessitating a move to bigger house, etc. etc. This is basic common sense that applies to all types of markets.

And as another poster replied to you, houses will not jump up. They'll like on slightly track inflation + a bit more for overshoot. You won't miss out.

I presume your last statement is a little tongue in cheek.

McTigs

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the problem with waiting for the actual bottom of the market is that by the time you have real 'proof' the bottom has been reached, then it's already too late because prices will have already gone up.

They won't shoot back up, once they bottom out they'll stay bottomed out.... for ages.

goodie2shoes wrote: »

if i were in the market to buy (which i'm not) i would buy now because i honestly don't believe you're likely to get better value, and there's a real risk you end up paying a lot more once real upward movement starts to take place.

codswallop! whatever percent off the boom price doesn't imply "value"

goodie2shoes wrote: »

my nephew has just bought a 3 bed in D6 last month, and i think in years to come he'll be very happy with his decision and the price he paid.
(he's already enjoyed €134.20 appreciation!)

€134.20!?! Whoop di do! What's he goona do? Release the equity and buy himself a new toaster?

Idbatterim

there will be 3,500,000,000 taken out of the economy in the budget and bear in mind it is selling season now!

goodie2shoes

robd wrote: »

This is a very naive statement goodie2shoes. You should never ordinarily buy in a market that is trending down. It's not about buying at the bottom, this is irrelevant as no-one will know the bottom till after the event. If you wait till houses are definitely rising again (say 5%+ per year over a 2 year period) you are hugely reducing the risk of negative equity if anything goes wrong, such as prolonged job loss, need to emigrate, increase in family size necessitating a move to bigger house, etc. etc. This is basic common sense that applies to all types of markets.

And as another poster replied to you, houses will not jump up. They'll like on slightly track inflation + a bit more for overshoot. You won't miss out.

I presume your last statement is a little tongue in cheek.

basic common sense that applies to all markets? really? like we experienced during the boom you mean? or like England enjoyed during the late '80s? how do you know prices will not jump up? how do you know people will not miss out?

it never fails to amaze me how we as a nation of such property experts as you good self ever suffered such a property calamity in the first place. perhaps someone like yourself with such undoubted expertise can shed some light on this?:D

robd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

basic common sense that applies to all markets? really? like we experienced during the boom you mean? or like England enjoyed during the late '80s? how do you know prices will not jump up? how do you know people will not miss out?

it never fails to amaze me how we as a nation of such property experts as you good self ever suffered such a property calamity in the first place. perhaps someone with undoubted expertise can shed some light on this?:D

goodie2shoes. I profited from property. I exited prior to the crash. The crash was blindingly obviously to those with an understanding of markets who didn't think they were some kind of finance god, ala most property developers and speculators. It was being debated here and on thepropertypin.com with some of us giving detailed analysis as to the why it was going to crash and others shouting loudly and jumping up and down with their fingers in their ears. There's a huge difference between expert analysis and what the masses do. More to the point there's a huge difference to what vested interests want the masses to do. This is how people become wealthy any why wealth isn't evenly distributed.

Again there are detailed reasons as to why the property market will not just shoot back up. They have been given already on this and various other threads with links to various independent reports and statistical releases are given too. This analysis and opinion is given for free, all you have to do is spend the time reading the threads. Alternatively take courses in macro economics, micro economics, finance and other related courses at university level and you'll build up the knowledge. Here's a hint where to start with reading. Look at mortgage lending figures, published each month by Central Bank. This is the main indicator of asset price inflation in any economic model. Cash is irrelevant as it's not new money; you need to understand how banking works in an economic model to understand that statement. It's spiraling downwards which is thus where the property market is going.

jsd1004

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

You're wrong.

It's not as if when we do reach the bottom prices will rocket again - they'll stagnate for years.

So by waiting you may see another 10-30% decline in prices OR if we're at bottom at most the price will remain the same. So on a €300k house you can pay the same in 1-3 years, or if I'm right pay €200-250k.

We are back in 2005 again..just the opposite. The market is a market like any other. The price of a commoditity is what someone else is willing to pay for it irrespective of yield or any other factor. Prices might go up, they might go down, they might stagnate. It depends on lots of factors micro and macro. Yes employment might go down it also might boom. Interest rates are now historically low and look like going lower but if employment and inflation (including house inflation) pick up (unlikely at present in EZ) they are going to stay low. Anyone who says they know or ridicules someone elses opionion are the one who are wrong.

the groutch

EAs are increasing the asking prices in advance of the mini-rush of people buying before mortgage interest relief is abolished.

christmas2012

Bertie aherne talked up the economy in a boom - saying there wouldnt be a crash when it was crashing..

Economists even have vested interests these people stupidly bought second and third homes and are now trying to flog them off on you..

Wake up,dont panic buy in droves,there is still a property stand off - let it last - and house prices will stay low..

DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE - OTHERWISE PRICES WILL SHOOT BACK UP!!!FFS LIKE THE LAST TIME!!!

true

djk1000 wrote: »

Dead cat bounce.

Lots of civil servants taking early retirement are cash buying properties with their lump sums as an investment.

If Angela Merkal sneezes, prices will drop again.

Correct, most estate agents will privately tell you that. The lump sum cash payments retiring public servants get on retirement is 18 months finishing salary. In the case of a garda aged 50 retiring this is enough to buy two apartments in parts of the country. This gives them rental income to supplement their Garda pension.

goodie2shoes

the groutch wrote: »

EAs are increasing the asking prices in advance of the mini-rush of people buying before mortgage interest relief is abolished.

i recall Nigel Lawson doing something similar and the UK property market took off like a rocket. the same will happen here albeit with less severe acceleration.

take it from me once the banks begin lending again (and if the noises coming from Brussels are to be believed, that will be quite soon), the market here will take off.

there is huge pent up demand, many of those who have put off buying are desperate to get their own place, starting a family whilst living with mammy is never a good idea, they know rent is dead money, they realize there is excellent value out there.

when things change, they will change with frightening speed. you heard it here first folks!