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Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

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  • Site Banned Posts: 2,037 ✭✭✭paddyandy


    The Politicians advocating the yes vote will not take the risk on ireland's future .This is much to serious for gamesmanship but people who feel they have nothing to lose will .


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,214 ✭✭✭cbyrd


    http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/582311/05-tesm2.en12.pdf


    Just as a matter of interest on the ESM ... has anyone scrolled down to article 34, 35 and more interesting . . . 36.4 ... just curious to see what you think of it.. and the fact that they can bloody throw a massive party invite who they want and import ANYTHING they want with no questions asked . . :eek: and the very last bit too . . go on have a look see
    Thoughts please . . .


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Wibbs wrote: »
    I have no idea what you're debating here. I really don't. Of course it's a dig, wheeled out whenever there's even the sniff of someone asks "eh wut?" about the EU.

    As I said you wouldn't, you don't get how the EU or the Commission and that's fair enough, we'll leave it there, unless you can provide a ranking table that shows how important Ireland is.

    The only reason I said you were a Euroskeptic is you were throwing it around earlier as a slur along with Europhile. If you hadn't I wouldn't have brought it up so no point crying now! ;) I'd say you are an Irish Euroskeptic, nothing wrong with that except you were portraying yourself as the voice in the middle. The EEC is 20 years ago now, harking back to the good old days is a bit like reminiscing about DeV.
    No it was not. You are incorrect, lest anyone thinks differently and believes the comparison google is your friend and you'll see for yourselves. Finland had just come out of the worst depression in the countries modern history which was peaked in the early 90's. One way forward was they devalued their currency, which we can(or they) no longer do. If similar happened to them today they'd be in a lot more trouble. They weren't even within an asses roar of the growth in the Irish economy from the early to mid 90's and they most certainly weren't close to our growth at the introduction at the introduction of the euro. They were in stable growth, not the strong growth witnessed in Ireland at the time. You quite simply cannot compare the two nations.

    There'll always be some problem with a comparison so what exactly is your point? Portugal didn't have high growth and got bailed out.

    Nope. I find it equally fascinating the twists and turns that the more fervent Europhiles will undertake to avoid even a hint that the Euro was to blame at all. But anyhoo... Not me. I've repeatedly stated that successive government fcukups and the tulip mania of ourselves for housing was a massive cause of the boom and subsequent crash. However if interest rates had remained at the level they were in the late 90's, then cheap credit that fueled the huge private debt would have been significantly harder to get. That came with the Euro. It's economics 101, you do not lower interest rates in a heated economy. There is no real debate around that, unless you want to rewrite economics. If you want to broaden it to Spain where their governments keep a far more beady eye, in ways people now say we should have. They were incredibly frugal and were paying off their debts and never went over the limits(nulike every other EU nation inc Germany). They also suffered from the crash in interest rates. They're really fcuked now and one of the biggest ways they could become competitive is to devalue, but...

    Yeah, interest rates played a part, how big would be the difference in opinion, Iceland kept high interest rates and it worked out great for them!
    It seems for some good reasons. In point of fact I voted Yes to Lisbon 1. My thinking being fcukit there's no real going back, in for a penny, in for a euro and the No side were coming out with drivel for the most part. I voted No in Lisbon 2, because it seemed to me my first vote didn't really count, even though it was the "correct" one and that pissed me off. We've never had such an unseemly rush to the polls on any referendum before.

    Nice?
    Indeed. Our governments. For better or worse. Given the stats on competitiveness I referenced above, what the hell are we doing heading for austerity because that may be bettter for the Euro and other countries? We've been here before in another way when the interest rate for the Euro was pegged to other economies who benefited while the same interest rates stood on the pedal and drove us and others into the wall. And one of the things that fueled it from 02 was...

    One of the things, hence Greece and Portugal not having property bubbles, they wasted the opportunity of low interest rates a different way. Finland, Germany etc. used it productively, we didn't, not for the want of people telling them. Maybe if we had our property bubble in 1990 like the Finns?
    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    The government is getting an extremely easy ride in the fiscal treaty debate.

    Michael Martin, the so called leader of the opposition is supporting the government in its call for a yes vote and the resulting €6 billion in additional budget cuts and tax hikes, without asking the government to indicate to the Irish people where these cuts will be made.

    The government parties lied to get elected. Remember "Labour's way or
    Frankfurt's way" , "Not another cent to the bondholders" "Within 100 days of being elected cancer services will be restored to Sligo General Hospital" , signing pledges on third level fees, promising a reduction in commercial rates, etc etc.

    I don not believe them any more. I do not believe in the policies they are pursuing, I do not believe they are acting in the nation's best interests. This treaty as Noonan rightly said would not be passed in any European country only Ireland if put to a popular vote.

    Why is that?

    Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

    Where are you getting the €6 Billion from?

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    K-9 wrote: »
    Because your base is that it has to be repaid, Government debt is generally never fully repaid, even we didn't fully pay down our high debt from the 80's, and we had the option to.

    "and we had the option to" is the key!

    The point I am making is that we will never have that option in relation to the debt incurred under the "bailout" - because it is not conceivable that we could ever repay the debt.

    The scale of the repayments we'll face for generations will make the Versailles Treaty reparations look like chickenfeed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,704 ✭✭✭squod


    Just to add to Wild Bills post. The interest rates are not set and the amount of cash we have to front is not set either. So the cost of this ESM is lark pretty much up to speculation.

    Our case isn't the same as everyone else's. This blanket solution doesn't fit well with our problem.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭dvpower


    squod wrote: »
    Just to add to Wild Bills post. The interest rates are not set and the amount of cash we have to front is not set either. So the cost of this ESM is lark pretty much up to speculation.
    How could they be set at this stage? - the interest rate will depend on market rates if and when the fund needs to borrow money, and each member state's ultimate contribution will depend on how much of the fund is lent and repaid, and by who.

    If you find out how the fund is designed to operate, you'd need to speculate less.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    dvpower wrote: »
    How could they be set at this stage? - the interest rate will depend on market rates if and when the fund needs to borrow money, and each member state's ultimate contribution will depend on how much of the fund is lent and repaid, and by who.

    If you find out how the fund is designed to operate, you'd need to speculate less.

    Not true. the rate could be entirely arbitrary and could be set sufficiently high for us to get the money from the markets cheaper. The rate could be down to how willing they are to give us the money and probably will have little or nothing to do with the markets.

    If you find out how the fund is designed to operate you could give a more honest response.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    squod wrote: »
    Just to add to Wild Bills post. The interest rates are not set and the amount of cash we have to front is not set either. So the cost of this ESM is lark pretty much up to speculation.

    Our case isn't the same as everyone else's. This blanket solution doesn't fit well with our problem.

    Originally the EFSF interest rate was higher than the IMF loan or UK one IIRC. That changed and we now get that at low rates. I don't see much reason to suspect it would be much higher than IMF rates.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,092 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    K-9 wrote: »
    As I said you wouldn't, you don't get how the EU or the Commission [works] and that's fair enough, we'll leave it there, unless you can provide a ranking table that shows how important Ireland is.
    Actually I do. Do you? Nice condescending dig again. When your argument fails...
    The only reason I said you were a Euroskeptic is you were throwing it around earlier as a slur along with Europhile. If you hadn't I wouldn't have brought it up so no point crying now! ;) I'd say you are an Irish Euroskeptic, nothing wrong with that except you were portraying yourself as the voice in the middle. The EEC is 20 years ago now, harking back to the good old days is a bit like reminiscing about DeV.
    Yet he's still about and many people would prefer the "good old days" and for good reason in some ways. Not an argument yet again. You're good at this.
    There'll always be some problem with a comparison so what exactly is your point? Portugal didn't have high growth and got bailed out.
    No, what's your point? What has Portugal being bailed out got to do with the debate? In the late 90's Portugal had steady growth and low unemployment with high household debt and a host of other issues at the time of the Euro rollout. My point remains that you can't point to a single EU country in high growth that the Euro didn't fcuk up. Talk of Portugal and bailout is at best a red herring, but more like flailing about looking for an argument you can't win. Fail again.

    Yeah, interest rates played a part, how big would be the difference in opinion, Iceland kept high interest rates and it worked out great for them!
    Again with the flailing. Your comparison to Iceland is equally as daft and ignorant as those eejits who point to them as a way out for Ireland. Like them you miss how completely and I do mean completely different their situation was. In short their banking section went mad and essentially started printing monopoly money when it suited. They had a tiny economy and their currency was the most overvalued in the western world. So argument fail yet again.

    Nice?
    Grand as an argument if you're quoting South Park, in which case it should read as "niiiiice", but it hardly rallies your cause. The two fastest re-votes in the history of this state because it didn't suit were both to do with the EU? Hmmm, the F word looms yet again.
    One of the things, hence Greece and Portugal not having property bubbles, they wasted the opportunity of low interest rates a different way.
    And how were they able to? One nations "opportunity" is anothers madness. Join the dots.
    Finland, Germany etc. used it productively, we didn't, not for the want of people telling them.
    You're showing a serious ignorance of basic economics here. I dunno how many times I have to spell this out, before breaking out the crayons, but I'll give it one more college try... Finland and Germany weren't in strong growth, so low interest rates were a good thing for them. If wikipedia can make it clearer? For those on mobile:

    "The introduction of the euro has decreased the interest rates of most members countries, in particular those with a weak currency. As a consequence the market value of firms from countries which previously had a weak currency has very significantly increased.[63] The countries whose interest rates fell most as a result of the euro are Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy.[64] The effect of such low interest rates made it easier for banks within the countries in which interest rates fell and the countries themselves to borrow significant amounts (above the 3% of GDP budget deficit imposed on the eurozone initially) and increase their public deficit and levels of privately held consumer debt.[65] Following the Late-2000s financial crisis, governments in these countries found it necessary to bail out or nationalise their privately held banks in order to prevent systemic failure of the banking system.[66] This further increased the already high levels of public debt to a level the markets began to consider unsustainable, via increasing government bond interest rates, producing the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis."

    You may note if you squint hard enough through the blinkers that those countries spell out PIIGS. But no... nothing to do with the euro. No that's impossible. Impossible I tells ya.

    Spain smacks your argument to the ground. They were more financially diligent on many governmental levels than countries like Germany(or Finland). Not once did the break the EU rules, indeed were paying off debt while keeping their competitiveness and what happened there? Oh yes that's right massive private debt on the coattails of the euro.

    TL;DR? Your arguments hold about as much water as a ricepaper colander.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Actually I do. Do you? Nice condescending dig again. When your argument fails...

    Oh can I see this ranking table of countries then? You seem to believe we can have more power than Italy for example.
    Yet he's still about and many people would prefer the "good old days" and for good reason in some ways. Not an argument yet again. You're good at this.

    The EEC is the good old days for granda Wibbs! ;)
    No, what's your point? What has Portugal being bailed out got to do with the debate? In the late 90's Portugal had steady growth and low unemployment with high household debt and a host of other issues at the time of the Euro rollout. My point remains that you can't point to a single EU country in high growth that the Euro didn't fcuk up. Talk of Portugal and bailout is at best a red herring, but more like flailing about looking for an argument you can't win. Fail again.

    Ah right, high growth is your point, not well governed countries like Finland. I'd say poor governance is your common denominator.

    Again with the flailing. Your comparison to Iceland is equally as daft and ignorant as those eejits who point to them as a way out for Ireland. Like them you miss how completely and I do mean completely different their situation was. In short their banking section went mad and essentially started printing monopoly money when it suited. They had a tiny economy and their currency was the most overvalued in the western world. So argument fail yet again.

    High interest rates were part of the reason they went mad. I mean how exactly do you think they got all this money from abroad?
    Grand as an argument if you're quoting South Park, in which case it should read as "niiiiice", but it hardly rallies your cause. The two fastest re-votes in the history of this state because it didn't suit were both to do with the EU? Hmmm, the F word looms yet again.

    So why were you so surprised we voted again? So you had a precedent of a Government asking again but got angry that they asked again. Bit naive Wibbs. I could understand your anger if it was Nice but Lisbon. Extremely naive Wibbs, I'd say childishly innocent.
    And how were they able to? One nations "opportunity" is anothers madness. Join the dots. You're showing a serious ignorance of basic economics here. I dunno how many times I have to spell this out, before breaking out the crayons, but I'll give it one more college try... Finland and Germany weren't in strong growth, so low interest rates were a good thing for them. If wikipedia can make it clearer? For those on mobile:

    You've already admitted we had tools to cool the growth, tax incentives for a start, not doubling Moratgage Interest relief for a start.

    To put in perspective I'll quote an old post from me:
    K-9 wrote:
    Personally, I believe Bertie telling naysayers to commit suicide, Tax Relief on €1,700 a month Interest for First Time Buyers, Yep, €20,000 a year mortgage interest was tax deductible and encouraged (would be a €Million mortgage), ignoring warnings from the ECB, you know the EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, Regulators being warned about lending to affordability ratios and asking banks about how much they where lending as far back as 2003, Banks said "Nah, of course we aren't lending too much", Regulator said "OK then", everybody ignoring warnings from as far back as 2002 on the property bubble, "Rent is dead money" mantra, the keeping up with the Jones lifestyle, investors flooding the market with tax incentives, property always goes up, the Irish obsession with property, Govt. and Unions giving income tax cuts for people to afford houses, the I deserve a house mentality, investors in for a quick buck and selling for a quick buck, Estate Agents, nobody bothering to invest in anything not property related, FF, Coalitions, FG/Labour, I could go on.

    But YEP, it was mostly down to the Euro.

    THE BIGGEST COST of the Euro was the opportunity cost of not using them wisely. We could be a huge R&D base, actually have a smart economy and not be making jokes about it.

    You may note if you squint hard enough through the blinkers that those countries spell out PIIGS. But no... nothing to do with the euro. No that's impossible. Impossible I tells ya.

    I already admitted interest rates played a part in the same post, why the drama llama antics Wibbs?

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,704 ✭✭✭squod


    dvpower wrote: »

    If you find out how the fund is designed to operate, you'd need to speculate less.

    Can't see how much the bailout contingencies might cost. Pie in the sky anyway, we have no money to contribute to the fund and we can't afford another bailout anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Thanks for all the information about economic policy. Since joining the euro we have no choice but to follow the economic policy of the EU as I understand things. This vote also seems to me to provide no choice. If we vote yes we are signing up to not borrowing more and if we vote no nobody is likely to lend to us (at reasonable interest rates) according to the politicians. Is this the same as a choice of government by FF or FG? Can any of the economics experts in this discussion explain to me what the actual choice we are being offered in this vote is?
    Should there not be some mechanism for the more successful areas of a single currency to help those that have managed their local economies badly. Is this what the stability fund is and if so why do countries need to commit to not needing to borrow in order to access it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    "and we had the option to" is the key!

    The point I am making is that we will never have that option in relation to the debt incurred under the "bailout" - because it is not conceivable that we could ever repay the debt.

    The scale of the repayments we'll face for generations will make the Versailles Treaty reparations look like chickenfeed.

    If we have even historically pathetic growth, we don't need to make any debt repayments, let alone Versailles style payments.

    The maths involved here isn't complicated. What the Treaty cares about is debt/GDP, so the ratio shrinks without you repaying any debt as long as GDP grows. It's also nominal GDP, which means that inflation all by itself makes your GDP bigger even if you have no real growth.

    Here's an outlook from 2019, which is when we'd have to start reducing our debt/GDP ratio - or, in your version, when the Versailles reparations kick in:

    Year|GDP growth|Inflation|Nominal GDP|Debt €bn|Ratio|Target|“Austerity”|Reduction €bn|Deficit
    2019|0.50%|1.75%|159.92|187.68|117.36%|117.00%|0.36%|0.57|0.36%
    2020|0.50%|1.75%|163.52|187.11|114.43%|114.15%|0.28%|0.45|0.28%
    2021|0.50%|1.75%|167.20|186.65|111.64%|111.44%|0.20%|0.33|0.20%
    2022|0.50%|1.75%|170.96|186.32|108.99%|108.87%|0.12%|0.20|0.12%
    2023|0.50%|1.75%|174.80|186.12|106.47%|106.43%|0.04%|0.08|0.04%
    2024|0.50%|1.75%|178.74|186.04|104.09%|104.11%|-0.02%|-0.04|-0.02%
    2025|0.50%|1.75%|182.76|186.08|101.82%|101.90%|-0.08%|-0.15|-0.08%
    2026|0.50%|1.75%|186.87|186.23|99.66%|99.81%|-0.15%|-0.28|-0.15%

    From the left, that's:
    1. Year: starts in 2019 because there's a three year grace period from the end of our current programme in 2015. Could be 2018 if you prefer.
    2. GDP growth: real GDP growth
    3. Inflation: a bit under 2% as per ECB targets
    4. Nominal GDP: the nominal GDP resulting from real growth and inflation
    5. Debt €bn: debt capital outstanding, based on 120% of 2011 GDP
    6. Ratio: ratio of debt to nominal GDP
    7. Target: target debt/GDP ratio as per the Treaty (reducing at 1/20th of the excess debt per year)
    8. "Austerity": the gap between the actual debt/GDP ratio and the target ratio - tells you how much debt needs to be repaid after GDP growth has been factored in
    9. Reduction €bn: how much you have to reduce the debt capital by, in €bn
    10. Deficit: the amount of deficit as a % of GDP the government can run - positive numbers mean the government needs to run a surplus to pay back debt, negative numbers are the limit on the amount of deficit spending the government can do.

    So even with only 0.5% real growth annually from 2018/2019, there are no "Versailles style" repayments. The most you have to knock off is a bit over half a billion in the first year, and by 2023/2024 you can run a small deficit again.

    And 0.5% is ridiculously small growth for Ireland. We did better than that in the bad years of the Eighties. We did better than that last year.

    So, same again, this time with 1.5% real growth:

    Year|GDP growth|Inflation|Nominal GDP|Debt €bn|Ratio|Target|“Austerity”|Reduction €bn|Deficit
    2019|1.50%|1.75%|161.48|187.68|116.22%|117.00%|-0.78%|-1.26|-0.78%
    2020|1.50%|1.75%|166.73|188.94|113.32%|114.15%|-0.83%|-1.39|-0.83%
    2021|1.50%|1.75%|172.15|190.32|110.56%|111.44%|-0.88%|-1.52|-0.88%
    2022|1.50%|1.75%|177.74|191.84|107.93%|108.87%|-0.94%|-1.67|-0.94%
    2023|1.50%|1.75%|183.52|193.51|105.44%|106.43%|-0.99%|-1.81|-0.99%
    2024|1.50%|1.75%|189.49|195.32|103.08%|104.11%|-1.03%|-1.95|-1.03%
    2025|1.50%|1.75%|195.64|197.27|100.83%|101.90%|-1.07%|-2.09|-1.07%
    2026|1.50%|1.75%|202.00|199.36|98.69%|99.81%|-1.12%|-2.26|-1.12%

    No debt repayments at all.

    And with 3% real growth:

    Year|GDP growth|Inflation|Nominal GDP|Debt €bn|Ratio|Target|“Austerity”|Reduction €bn|Deficit
    2019|3.00%|1.75%|163.83|187.68|114.56%|117.00%|-2.44%|-4.00|-2.44%
    2020|3.00%|1.75%|171.61|191.68|111.69%|114.15%|-2.46%|-4.21|-2.46%
    2021|3.00%|1.75%|179.76|195.89|108.97%|111.44%|-2.47%|-4.43|-2.47%
    2022|3.00%|1.75%|188.30|200.33|106.39%|108.87%|-2.48%|-4.68|-2.48%
    2023|3.00%|1.75%|197.25|205.00|103.93%|106.43%|-2.50%|-4.92|-2.50%
    2024|3.00%|1.75%|206.61|209.93|101.60%|104.11%|-2.51%|-5.18|-2.51%
    2025|3.00%|1.75%|216.43|215.11|99.39%|101.90%|-2.51%|-5.43|-2.51%
    2026|3.00%|1.75%|226.71|220.54|97.28%|99.81%|-2.53%|-5.74|-2.53%

    As I said, the maths is quite simple, and it doesn't produce any serious debt repayments, let alone the kind of hysteria being engaged in. If you have your own projections, feel free to show them.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,092 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    K-9 wrote: »
    Oh can I see this ranking table of countries then? You seem to believe we can have more power than Italy for example.
    That is not what I said.
    The EEC is the good old days for granda Wibbs! ;)
    :) not quite what I said either.
    Ah right, high growth is your point, not well governed countries like Finland. I'd say poor governance is your common denominator.
    Spain kills your argument stone dead as it was more fiscally compliant with the EU rules than any other EU country. Never once broke the 3% rule, kept public spending in the black and was actually paying back debt. And yet again you're avoiding the point. If you want to talk about well run Finland I'd suggest you ask some Finns. You might be surprised.
    High interest rates were part of the reason they went mad. I mean how exactly do you think they got all this money from abroad?
    Like I said you're happily ignoring how completely different their situation was.
    So why were you so surprised we voted again? So you had a precedent of a Government asking again but got angry that they asked again. Bit naive Wibbs. I could understand your anger if it was Nice but Lisbon. Extremely naive Wibbs, I'd say childishly innocent.
    If a dog bites you once you think, meh maybe a one off, if it bites you twice you think vicious dog and you don't let it bite you again. It simply copperfastened my level of WTF.
    You've already admitted we had tools to cool the growth, tax incentives for a start, not doubling Moratgage Interest relief for a start.
    Of course. I've never denied this, so that argument falls flat too.
    To put in perspective I'll quote an old post from me:
    and when did this all take place? Pre or post interest rates on the floor?
    THE BIGGEST COST of the Euro was the opportunity cost of not using them wisely. We could be a huge R&D base, actually have a smart economy and not be making jokes about it.
    Indeed, yet we have one of the single most competitive and attractive to overseas investment nations on the planet. Today.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭dvpower


    Not true. the rate could be entirely arbitrary and could be set sufficiently high for us to get the money from the markets cheaper. The rate could be down to how willing they are to give us the money and probably will have little or nothing to do with the markets.

    The rate will be made up of the cost of financing i.e. the market rate (the ESM will have little control over), operating costs (the ESM will have some control over) and a margin (the ESM will have a good deal of control over, but will presumably have some bearing on the specific application for finance).

    So how could you possibly expect them to set the interest rates now, when it depends on things that aren't known now?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,007 ✭✭✭Phill Ewinn


    Jaysus, we'll have to send Scofflaw over to see Merkel. Shure he has the answer to everything.

    All joking aside, you do tend to put a lot of faith in our governments ability and the ability of some unelected penpushers in Europe.

    We're handing over an awfull lot of power and responsibiliy to people who we don't know.


  • Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭CdeC


    "The fiscal compact, on which Ireland will vote in May, aims to place financial limits on how much countries can borrow in proportion to their revenue."

    The Irish Times - Thursday, April 19, 2012


    This makes a lot of sense, I mean all loans should be assessed on your ability to pay it back. Also forced budget cuts may be painful now but are necessary if we are to emerge out of this in good economic health.
    I am not for permanent austerity (I hate that word) but we need to put systems in place so that when growth happens again it is more controlled and sustainable.
    I mean the celtic tiger was fun but has it been worth the comedown.
    I'm voting yes!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Jaysus, we'll have to send Scofflaw over to see Merkel. Shure he has the answer to everything.

    Oh, I'm sure Merkel is well aware that that's how the calculations really pan out. It happens to suit political oppositions, particularly on the left, to make a lot of noise about how the Treaty will result in a million years of austerity, so that noise is being made. Those who don't do the maths probably even believe it to be the case.
    All joking aside, you do tend to put a lot of faith in our governments ability and the ability of some unelected penpushers in Europe.

    We're handing over an awfull lot of power and responsibiliy to people who we don't know.

    I don't see any of this as some kind of permanent panacea any more than it's a route to perpetual austerity, though. I see it as a bunch of framework rules which have the very great advantage of being relatively transparent and not being arbitrary. My main positive from the Treaty is the creation of independent fiscal watchdogs around Europe - that's Article 3(2) - with the duty of monitoring the structural position of the government's finances. That's not something that's going to save us from ever having recessions again, because there are all kinds of reasons for recessions, but it's certainly a good idea.

    And it's a good idea we could, of course, do for ourselves, without it needing to be part of a Treaty - but the moment I look at our government's record with respect to our national "independent watchdogs" I immediately prefer such a body being part of our international obligations.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    dvpower wrote: »
    The rate will be made up of the cost of financing i.e. the market rate (the ESM will have little control over), operating costs (the ESM will have some control over) and a margin (the ESM will have a good deal of control over, but will presumably have some bearing on the specific application for finance).

    So how could you possibly expect them to set the interest rates now, when it depends on things that aren't known now?

    I don't expect them to set a rate now but perhaps they could specify a formula - say ECB rate minus 1%


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    I don't expect them to set a rate now but perhaps they could specify a formula - say ECB rate minus 1%

    Er, that wouldn't work. The ESM will borrow the money it lends from the markets. If the markets charge, say, 2.8%, then the ESM can't lend to a country at less than that, because that is then a bailout in the sense prohibited by Article 125 - the ESM would then be assuming some of the debt payment on behalf of the country.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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  • Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭EURATS


    The poll above is still lookin good for the NO side. Goes to show that no matter how much waffling goes on about the nitty gritty, people still aren't being swung by endless propaganda.
    There's no faith in our leaders and that won't change.

    There's no rush. If this treaty really is right for Ireland, Kenny will hold another referendum in the event of a NO vote. There's no doubt about it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    EURATS wrote: »
    The poll above is still lookin good for the NO side. Goes to show that no matter how much waffling goes on about the nitty gritty, people still aren't being swung by endless propaganda.
    There's no faith in our leaders and that won't change.

    There's no rush. If this treaty really is right for Ireland, Kenny will hold another referendum in the event of a NO vote. There's no doubt about it.

    So...vote No now because you can vote Yes later? And referendums are fun?

    amused,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭EURATS


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    EURATS wrote: »
    The poll above is still lookin good for the NO side. Goes to show that no matter how much waffling goes on about the nitty gritty, people still aren't being swung by endless propaganda.
    There's no faith in our leaders and that won't change.

    There's no rush. If this treaty really is right for Ireland, Kenny will hold another referendum in the event of a NO vote. There's no doubt about it.

    So...vote No now because you can vote Yes later? And referendums are fun?

    amused,
    Scofflaw


    Kind of..never mentioned the fun side of things though. Fun is what kenny and family are having travelling the world at the taxpayers expense!!!
    But vote NO until we KNOW.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,704 ✭✭✭squod


    Scofflaw wrote: »

    And it's a good idea we could, of course, do for ourselves, without it needing to be part of a Treaty - but the moment I look at our government's record with respect to our national "independent watchdogs" I immediately prefer such a body being part of our international obligations.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    Just on that point. All these 'bail-outs'' are illegal under European law. Seems to me that Europe or the gubberment will break any rule when it suits them and asking us to ''enshrine'' austerity for the sake of a couple of dodgy banks isn't worth it.


    Merkels ''let them eat cake'' speech last week has me on the definite no side. She can fuhk off so she can!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    squod wrote: »
    Just on that point. All these 'bail-outs'' are illegal under European law. Seems to me that Europe or the gubberment will break any rule when it suits them and asking us to ''enshrine'' austerity for the sake of a couple of dodgy banks isn't worth it.

    They're not illegal, though - cases have been taken on that basis, and have failed. It's only illegal for countries to assume any of each others debt - and bailout lending doesn't involve that.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    EURATS wrote: »
    Kind of..never mentioned the fun side of things though. Fun is what kenny and family are having travelling the world at the taxpayers expense!!!
    But vote NO until we KNOW.

    But we do know - they had a summit, and the text is not being changed. If there's a growth pact - and it looks likely, which is good - it will be a separate pact.

    The German opposition, which would be the main possibility of a change at this point, isn't looking for the text to change:
    Center-left opposition leader Sigmar Gabriel reiterated ahead of the talks that his party would only vote for the so-called fiscal pact if it is amended to include an economic growth pact.

    "It's not about changing the fiscal pact, but about complementing it with initiatives for growth and employment," Gabriel told German public broadcaster ARD.

    http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-05/D9UV3RAO0.htm

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,092 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    And it's a good idea we could, of course, do for ourselves, without it needing to be part of a Treaty - but the moment I look at our government's record with respect to our national "independent watchdogs" I immediately prefer such a body being part of our international obligations.
    Sure we can certainly don sackcloth and ashes over our local fcukup, but the EU "watchdogs" should be similarly attired for their record on missing obvious economic issues in the PIIGS* nations that would only be fueled by the adoption of the single currency pegged to the other nations with different situations. I don't see why going forward** we should place any more trust in a similar pan european initiative to get us all out of this mess.

    The signs so far are mixed at best. What's being targeted at the moment? Dodgy underfunded banks, low tax rates, not enough avenues to seek funds on the markets. From this we're getting the austerity notion. Austerity is not going to work. Bailouts are not going to work. Read those last two sentences back in ten years time. Hopefully we'll alll be around.:) IMHO they've diagnosed the wrong disease process and are busy spending money on the wrong drugs that mask some of the symptoms, while the disease progresses. Austerity won't work. Tightening government spending willy nilly while raising taxes has never worked, it actually makes things worse(Great depression in the US but one example). Economic growth is what is needed for the worlds investors to get confidence back. Many options are there on that score, but there remains the elephant in the room..

    The real problem as I see it and one from the start are the imbalances in economies trying to run the same currency. The stronger economies are dead set against printing more money. A move that would make a big difference to the weaker ones, making them simply more competitive(and Ireland even more so as competitiveness is not our main issue. However I contend raising taxes will make it one). Having us all pinned to one currency is bad for everyone in economic situations like we currently face and were bad in economic situations like we had at the birth of the euro itself. One size simply can't fit all and the national governments know it. Devaluing would help the PIIGs, but would screw up the more stable economies. We'd have a kinda reversal of the situation going into the Euro.

    In the end one reason I'll be voting NO is because quite simply I have little faith that those who didn't spot the obvious problems at the start are capable of coming up with viable solutions to those problems today. Their faffing around the Greek situation then and now just seals the deal.



    *I hate that description, but it's handy as a shorthand, even though each one of the PIIGs has quite different stresses on it.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,704 ✭✭✭squod


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    They're not illegal, though - cases have been taken on that basis, and have failed. It's only illegal for countries to assume any of each others debt - and bailout lending doesn't involve that.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    We were told no bail-outs, then we had bail-outs, now we're ratifying a treaty that allows bail-outs. Go figure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Indeed, yet we have one of the single most competitive and attractive to overseas investment nations on the planet. Today.

    But your ignoring the point, it isn't about multi-nationals, the opposite in fact, it's about government policy of stoking the property bubble and fanning the flames with tax policies, dezoning etc. in tandem with low interest rates. My point is the opportunity cost of not developing a larger indigenous export sector, something that would last long term through an inevitable world recession, not like selling houses to each other.

    If you get out of the blame game mentality and look at the opportunity cost it shows you that low interest rates are only a tool, it depends on how Governments plan policy what effect they'll have. Saying low interest rates for countries like ourselves was automatically bad ignores that and makes the Euro a rather convenient scapegoat!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    squod wrote: »
    We were told no bail-outs, then we had bail-outs, now we're ratifying a treaty that allows bail-outs. Go figure.

    Different people claimed different bits of that, though, and at different times depending on what their political angle was. The actual position throughout has been that the rules don't allow the assumption of each others debt, we had bailouts that were loans at market rates plus a margin to avoid breaking that rule, and now we have a Treaty that creates a fund that lends at its market rates plus a margin and doesn't break that rule.

    Reality and political claims are separate.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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