Is the EU doomed?

No. I think we might be in trouble though. There's still the chance of a 'inner' and 'outer' solution - Germany, France and a few others on the inside. Ireland and the other basket cases on the outside.

Lantus wrote: »

Well your right. This hinges on my (and many others) belief in that the other side of the coin of this financial disaster is the fact that we have passed peak oil sometime ago and are now on the other side of the bell curve.

More probably we're in the plateau phase.

Lantus wrote: »

Given the current cost of petrol compared to the economic downturn it makes no sense its so high espeically as if we believe the more confident detractors in that there is 'loads of oil out there' if so then why does it cost so much??? Simple, because you will pay more as a product becomes more scarce.

There are some complicating factors, but I take it you've seen the IMF working paper: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf

Lantus wrote: »

Infinite growth in any economy is feasible so long as you have infinite energy resources to back it up. As we have now passed the point at which over 50% of the current fossil fuel resources have been used up the failed paradigm of our economies is now laid bare for all to see.

The situation in Greece may well speed up the rate at which our oil dependant economies start to fail. After all, most economic activity is achieved throught car and vehicle travel by consumers. Right now most people have ceased this as the cost of travelling is simply so expensive other than for work or essential goods.

Its not that we are dependant on greece for oil or gas, its just that the financial fear it will generate will impact on prices overall and peopes confidence.

The fact that all oil reserves are state secrets doesn't help matters much except to keep the population in the dark as to the true nature of where we are in terms of the decline of society as we know it.

The only real threat short term is food and water. Food in particular needs a great deal of time to create even with land and soil and seeds. Waiting until the shops no longer get filled is a year too late.

Hm.

Lantus wrote: »

7 billion people on this planet and I'd say at least 5 billion are in existence purely because of oil dependant economies since the early part of the century. Take the oil away though.......

That's probably not an accurate estimate, since a lot of the population growth has been achieved in countries with relatively low per capita fossil fuel use. However, the amount of oil poured into agriculture is fairly scary.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Metal is made from oil?

Lantus wrote: »

I certianly think that well within my lifetime (ideally another 50 years if all goes well.) we will be in a situation where if you cannot walk a short distance to where food can be grown you will probably go hungry.

Not allowing any significant probability of tech saving us from this?

Anyway, I think you brought oil into this. While rising oil prices hasn't helped matters, I don't believe that it's caused the current financial crisis or will turn out to be the insurmountable problem if the euro fails (assuming it doesn't truly skyrocket of course).

BettyM wrote: »

The emotive terms of the title to this thread apart...

...utopian dream is, in reality, becoming a nightmare...

...telling us all, (with a straight face hiding their contempt and laughter)...

...alll look back at these events and hide opur heads in shame...allowed ourselves to be bullied...

...hell bent on rushing to destroy the interests of the irish electorate...all because they want a good report from the strict priest-like the EU has become...

...willingly being ruled by Brussles...bullying the Irish electorate...

Wil there ever come a time the Irish will rule themselves as a confident, prosperous, proud and free nation, rather then the unedifying spectacle of always looking to be ruled by someone else?

I'm terribly sorry, but the irony of your opening line is too good to be missed.

your ironing is delicious,
Scofflaw

BettyM wrote: »

I am glad you enjoyed it, although surprised that you not only could enjoy ityourself, but had to tell everyon how much you enjoyed it.

I can't help but notice you call people out if you perceive even whiff of this but do it yourself freely.

BettyM wrote: »

The emotive terms of the title to this thread apart, it seems more and more clear that the EU is becoming more and more disfunctional. The problem is it doesn't seem to realise that.

Funny, I see little to no dysfunction in the EU. It still does what it was established to do; the only real complaint I see is that it does this too well (free movement for workers being a prime example). Can you perhaps provide examples of dysfunction in the EU?

the ludicrous and incredible plan to keep on borrowing more and more money as the solution to the problem that Ireland is subsumed by debt.

This is always an interesting one for me. The side calling for a 'no' vote in the referendum are calling it the "Austerity Treaty". What baffles me, frankly, is that if we are cut off from the ESM and can no longer access its monies, doesn't that mean we would have to implement the most burdening austerity imaginable? This point always seems to be rebutted by an "awr yeah shure well they're just bluffing... they won't actually cut us off!"
But what happens if they do? How do we keep funding ourselves? How do we keep spending massive amounts of our budget on social welfare - the very target of the 'no' vote campaign; fighting for the social welfare recipient and calling it an "Austerity Treaty" when in reality a no vote and no further funding will effectively end social welfare.

Neither the EU nor irish politicians are any part of a solution to the problem and are, in fact, both the main contributin factors to the problem to which they now act out the role of telling us all, (with a straight face hiding their contempt and laughter), that they, the people who have caused the problems, are now going to be the designers of the solution to the problems they, themselves, have caused.

I recall a general election not so far in the past. I would agree that Ireland's problem is systemic - but at the same time the biggest problem for Ireland is her people: the majority of whom want to have their cake and eat it too.

Perhaps it's true we get the politicians we deserve, politicians who regard the preservation of the Euro as sacrosanct, to prop up an ideological delusion almost as a religious doctrine, and appear to care little about the suffering of the individuals around the EU just so long as their precious Euro is preserved.

I take little weight from the ramblings of people who can't get the difference between the EU and Eurozone clear in their own minds.

Of course, eventually the Euro will be no more, the symbol of their vain political projecty dead and, sadluy, with it much of what we now know as the EU will also be consigned to the dustbin of history as an experiment which went wrong. We wil alll look back at these events and hide opur heads in shame that we elected politicians who allowed this to happen, and allowed ourselves to be bullied by the same politicians into voting to give so much power away to others.

Ah, the grass over there does seem to be lush and green. How exactly do we get to his new utopia (to use your phrasing) where we abandon the Euro and things get miraculously better?

BettyM wrote: »

Or might it be that you are confused between irony and ironing? :-)

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Nobody seems to stop and think about the realities of a more integrated European economy... challenging the US and China as an economic entity whilst retaining national identity. Anyone who would suggest that France and Germany want anything to do with each other's national identity is talking out their arse.

I agree, and it would be a really great idea to find out what the French and German people want by the simple device of asking them. For example, over the newest treaty. But they won’t because democracy is now frowned upon as inconvenient and troublesome. (So confused and mesmerised have some become, that some actually argue that it’s more democratic to deny the European people a vote, which is more reminiscent of the old USSR than Europe).

The main item on the table at the recent G8 summit was the Euro. The inevitable conclusion was that no one can sort it out. The EU can't let Greece leave the project, and it can't afford to keep Greece in, as not all the money in the EU can prevent Greece being forced out of the Euro.

The only thing which can be said of the Euro is that the problems within it are insoluble for reasons well known and explained before the currency was launched.

At the point where Greece inevitably leaves the project, the entire situation will unravel further promoting a financial and political storm far greater and catastrophic than anything we have seen so far.

It’s like a modern day tower of Babel , brought about by the same hubris and vanity, and we all know how that ended, just as we all fear how the Euro is likely to end. So horrible it is to contemplate, that many are still pretending all will be ok. (It is said that as the Jews were being herded into the gas chambers, many of them denied what they knew was the inevitable, and perhaps in both that case, as as now, the prospect is so terrible that we can understand those who choose denial. However , the inevitable is the inevitable however we choose to cope with it.

The picture of Obama ‘s dinner is interesting as it reminds us how we are now ruled. Everyone at the table was elected, with the exception being Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman van Rompuy, those two unelected senior officials of the EU.

While it is much more entertaining to cover Irish politics as if Ireland still being governed by a ding dong between politicians in the Dail, and while that’s great fun for the press and the media, the truth is that the majority of legislation now comes from the EU, and the Dail no longer has the right to alter or change any of it.

With the vote next Thursday, the Irish will sign over more of their powers to Brussels. The real Irish government no longer sits in the Dail, but sits elsewhere.

The coming weeks and years will be great fun to watch, and the hubris of those who thought a political project (the euro) could work in the long run by sheer political will and by ignoring the economics and realities, the very people whose hubris and vanity have inflicted so much damage right across the EU, will never be held to account.

Brianja wrote: »

I agree, and it would be a really great idea to find out what the French and German people want by the simple device of asking them. For example, over the newest treaty. But they won’t because democracy is now frowned upon as inconvenient and troublesome. (So confused and mesmerised have some become, that some actually argue that it’s more democratic to deny the European people a vote, which is more reminiscent of the old USSR than Europe).

Their system is no less "democratic" than ours. This is some odd theme that pops up a lot here when discussing referenda; it is not our place to question their democratic process. The people of the other countries of Europe democratically elect their government to do a job - the very same job that we elect our government to do.

We are not voting on the 31st to ratify the Treaty. We are voting on the Thirtieth Amendment of the Constitution (Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union) Bill 2012 - we are voting to amend our constitution to allow our government to ratify the Treaty (or not as the case may be). They are not bound to ratify it if we vote Yes.

This seems to be an interesting problem in the basic understanding of Irish democracy and referenda in Ireland in general. We have never held an "Ordinary Referendum" (a referendum in which the people are asked a specific question, referred to the people by the President, on a specific Bill). Ordinary referenda are what you think all referenda are: the people decide on a specific issue yes or no. Again, the President is the only one who has the power to refer Bills to the people by Ordinary Referendum.

Constitutional Referendum, such as this, are frequent. The question that is being asked is that the people allow the government to amend the constitution - usually to allow them to do something which would have otherwise been unconstitutional.

The only difference in other countries is that they are either not bound by the same problems or conflicts in their constitution or that the government is not bound by such strict constitutional difficulties. For example, in Germany (a constitution which you must remember is only 63ish years old) the process for making amendments is contained in Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Artikel 79:

(1) Das Grundgesetz kann nur durch ein Gesetz geändert werden, das den Wortlaut des Grundgesetzes ausdrücklich ändert oder ergänzt. Bei völkerrechtlichen Verträgen, die eine Friedensregelung, die Vorbereitung
einer Friedensregelung oder den Abbau einer besatzungsrechtlichen Ordnung zum Gegenstand haben oder der Verteidigung der Bundesrepublik zu dienen bestimmt sind, genügt zur Klarstellung, daß die Bestimmungen des Grundgesetzes dem Abschluß und dem Inkraftsetzen der Verträge nicht entgegenstehen, eine Ergänzung des Wortlautes des Grundgesetzes, die sich auf diese Klarstellung beschränkt.

(2) Ein solches Gesetz bedarf der Zustimmung von zwei Dritteln der Mitglieder des Bundestages und zwei Dritteln der Stimmen des Bundesrates.

(3) Eine Änderung dieses Grundgesetzes, durch welche die Gliederung des Bundes in Länder, die grundsätzliche Mitwirkung der Länder bei der Gesetzgebung oder die in den Artikeln 1 und 20 niedergelegten Grundsätze
berührt werden, ist unzulässig.

It is clear, there must be an absolute two-thirds majority of the Bundestag and simple two-thirds majority of the Bundesrat to amend the constitution.

Hopefully we can put this issue to bed now. Ireland is no more democratic than any other country in Europe and we are not voting on whether to ratify the Treaty or not.

The main item on the table at the recent G8 summit was the Euro. The inevitable conclusion was that no one can sort it out. The EU can't let Greece leave the project, and it can't afford to keep Greece in, as not all the money in the EU can prevent Greece being forced out of the Euro.

I wasn't at the G8 summit, so I can't really speak to what conclusions they came to. Since I'm assuming you weren't there either, can you provide evidence for your claims?

The only thing which can be said of the Euro is that the problems within it are insoluble for reasons well known and explained before the currency was launched.

In your opinion. My opinion is that the problems are not unique to the Eurozone; some minor changes such as the Fiscal Compact could solve rather large issues.

At the point where Greece inevitably leaves the project, the entire situation will unravel further promoting a financial and political storm far greater and catastrophic than anything we have seen so far.

Sick of the "project" stuff now from the anti-Europe brigade tbh.:rolleyes:

In any event, your opinion is that Greece leaving the EU/EZ will cause more trouble, my opinion (now... it hasn't necessarily always been the case when I thought Greece would co-operate) is that Greece leaving the EU/EZ is priced into the markets and will cause no further mid to long term problems for the remaining members than their continued membership would.
In fact, I see it as a benefit/risk issue... there is likely more benefit for everyone with Greece leaving than staying.

It’s like a modern day tower of Babel , brought about by the same hubris and vanity, and we all know how that ended, just as we all fear how the Euro is likely to end. So horrible it is to contemplate, that many are still pretending all will be ok. (It is said that as the Jews were being herded into the gas chambers, many of them denied what they knew was the inevitable, and perhaps in both that case, as as now, the prospect is so terrible that we can understand those who choose denial. However , the inevitable is the inevitable however we choose to cope with it.

I'm not even going to touch this.

The picture of Obama ‘s dinner is interesting as it reminds us how we are now ruled. Everyone at the table was elected, with the exception being Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman van Rompuy, those two unelected senior officials of the EU.

Huh?

While it is much more entertaining to cover Irish politics as if Ireland still being governed by a ding dong between politicians in the Dail, and while that’s great fun for the press and the media, the truth is that the majority of legislation now comes from the EU, and the Dail no longer has the right to alter or change any of it.

Wow. This represents a complete lack of understanding of the EU and Irish government and legislative process. I've outlined how it works in various threads over the years here. I'm not in the mood to hash it all out again, but you should really read up on the subject - even wikipedia has a good entry.
Needless to say there are issues with direct and indirect effect and looking up the difference between directives, regulations and recommendations would be a very good starting point.

Ireland still drafts and implements all of its own legislation.

With the vote next Thursday, the Irish will sign over more of their powers to Brussels. The real Irish government no longer sits in the Dail, but sits elsewhere.

But do they really? We are implementing the budgetary constraints into our own legislation and we would be bound by our own constitution then to correct it by prescribed limits in a manner decided by our government of the day. I fail to see exactly what power Brussels has here?

The coming weeks and years will be great fun to watch, and the hubris of those who thought a political project (the euro) could work in the long run by sheer political will and by ignoring the economics and realities, the very people whose hubris and vanity have inflicted so much damage right across the EU, will never be held to account.

Enjoy I guess?

Wibbs wrote: »

Sorry F, maybe you quoted my post in error, cos I dunno how you got that from it.

Me neither... must have been a tangent :P