Red C Polls, Yes vote strengthens, bad news for FG

thecommietommy · 12-05-2012 05:12PM #1

VOTING INTENTIONS ON EU TREATY REFERENDUM

Yes: 53% (+6)

No: 31% (-4)

Don't Know: 16% (-2)

The poll was conducted among more than 1,000 voters nationwide last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/Politics/%27Yes%27+vote+strengthens%3A+Red+C+poll/id/89127228-1884-fae7-5a64-804736522692

STATE OF THE PARTIES

Fine Gael: 29% (-3)

Sinn Féin: 21% (+2)

Fianna Fail: 19% (+2)

Labour: 13% (-1)

Independents: 18% (no change)

Bad news for FG, FF on the rise again :eek:

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Red+C+poll%3A+Coalition+parties+lose+support/id/19410615-5218-4fae-8b67-ebd027365652

Sierra Oscar · 12-05-2012 05:21PM

The referendum is certainly on course to be passed by the looks of things - people are simply not buying into the argument being put forward by the opponents of the treaty.

I think it is safe to say that those who predicted FF would be in single digit figures by now were greatly mistaken. The upward momentum is only going to continue from here onwards, and the hundreds of members partaking in the national collection across the nation this weekend will easily tell you that the negativity towards the party is subsiding somewhat.

Dirk Gently · 12-05-2012 05:29PM

The next GE will be interesting, any of them could realistically be in government. Awful shame that FF still exist but they were always going to bounce back unfortunately.

Mr.Micro · 12-05-2012 05:33PM

Dirk Gently wrote: »

The next GE will be interesting, any of them could realistically be in government. Awful shame that FF still exist but they were always going to bounce back unfortunately.

Will the country ever bounce back, that is more important.

thecommietommy · 12-05-2012 05:35PM

Dirk Gently wrote: »

The next GE will be interesting, any of them could realistically be in government. Awful shame that FF still exist but they were always going to bounce back unfortunately.

Understandable FF are bouncing back since FG/Labour are but FF with a different name. Still interesting to see 1% of FG going to SF ( 1% Labour unsurprisingly going to SF ). Sorry to see the ULA/Inds not improving.

thebman · 12-05-2012 05:35PM

FF up because of supporting the treaty from opposition I imagine.

Sierra Oscar · 12-05-2012 05:35PM

Dirk Gently wrote: »

The next GE will be interesting, any of them could realistically be in government. Awful shame that FF still exist but they were always going to bounce back unfortunately.

It will be very interesting to see if a government can be created by SF and a coalition of left TD's (including maybe Labour).

Although the prospect of that is likely to horrify SF strategists, as the plan is to maintain in opposition in order to allow for their new support to consolidate. If the party were to go into government in the immediate future then their new found soft support would desert them.

If the current trend continues then FG will not be in a position to form a government down the line - FF are not planning to enter into government after the next GE even if they were in a position to be a coalition partner.

In saying that, this is all hearsay considering an election is probably four years off yet!

Mr.Micro · 12-05-2012 05:37PM

thebman wrote: »

FF up because of supporting the treaty from opposition I imagine.

Doing the right thing, so FF.

femur61 · 12-05-2012 05:41PM

I get by the actually amount of No posters about they actually don't really want to win because nobody really what will happen if we vote no. Guy from IDA said US companies are keeping any eye on hte outcome. He said they have faith in our passing it but they will move out if we don't.

Mr.Micro · 12-05-2012 05:44PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If the current trend continues then FG will not be in a position to form a government down the line - FF are not planning to enter into government after the next GE even if they were in a position to be a coalition partner.

In saying that, this is all hearsay considering an election is probably four years off yet!

Seriously SO, do you think that the electorate would elect FF when it comes to a GE, bearing in mind what has happened in last 11 years? Its all fine to give support in a poll, as the individual knows its just a poll, but a vote? At this time I think not. If FG/Lab were really under the cosh, especially after household charge, water meters, then they should be down 10% or more. Not the case, so 3% is margin of error and FG/Lab will be quite satisfied IMO.

thecommietommy · 12-05-2012 05:44PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It will be very interesting to see if a government can be created by SF and a coalition of left TD's (including maybe Labour).

Although the prospect of that is likely to horrify SF strategists, as the plan is to maintain in opposition in order to allow for their new support to consolidate. If the party were to go into government in the immediate future then their new found soft support would desert them.

If the current trend continues then FG will not be in a position to form a government down the line - FF are not planning to enter into government after the next GE even if they were in a position to be a coalition partner.

In saying that, this is all hearsay considering an election is probably four years off yet!

Couldn't disagree with you more. FF turn down the chance for govt :eek: Turn down taking power to pull strokes for all their wealthy backers and cronies. Not a hope. FG/FF govt in 3 1/2 years time - though it is a long way off.

thecommietommy · 12-05-2012 05:46PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Seriously SO, do you think that the electorate would elect FF when it comes to a GE, bearing in mind what has happened in last 11 years? Its all fine to give support in a poll, as the individual knows its just a poll, but a vote? At this time I think not. If FG/Lab were really under the cosh, especially after household charge, water meters, then they should be down 10% or more. Not the case, so 3% is margin of error and FG/Lab will be quite satisfied IMO.

Do you seriously think that their is actually any slight difference between FF and FG ? And just remember, it's the same people who vote either in regardless.

Mr.Micro · 12-05-2012 06:19PM

thecommietommy wrote: »

Do you seriously think that their is actually any slight difference between FF and FG ? And just remember, it's the same people who vote either in regardless.

There is a difference, by the very fact that they exist separately. Some their ideals will be the same, but different parties.

12-05-2012 06:36PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The referendum is certainly on course to be passed by the looks of things - people are simply not buying into the argument being put forward by the opponents of the treaty.

I think it is safe to say that those who predicted FF would be in single digit figures by now were greatly mistaken. The upward momentum is only going to continue from here onwards, and the hundreds of members partaking in the national collection across the nation this weekend will easily tell you that the negativity towards the party is subsiding somewhat.

Its embarassing for all Irish people that 20% of the population would be willing to vote for FF. The party that with there corruption only a few years ago bankrupted this country for a generation. Very sad for our future, nobody in this country appears to have a conscience or a memory.:o:o. Whats happening now is a direct result of what FF did, as usual somebody has to clean up after the children.

Pete_Cavan · 12-05-2012 06:37PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

In saying that, this is all hearsay considering an election is probably four years off yet!

Yeah, cant see a GE happening for a few years. Labour certainly wont want to face the electorate any time soon as they would take a huge hit. FG would obviously see a big drop too but would still control anything from one quarter to one third of the seats in the Dáil. There is certainly a lot more scope for FG to pick up floating votes as Labour face stiff competition for their traditional supporters. If by 2014/15 we are back in the bond markets and have knocked a couple of percent off unemployment, they may both be happy for another GE. The best option for both government parties right now is to hold on tight, give the illusion of a stable government and hope things work out. With such a big majority in the Dáil they should have no fear in lasting another couple of years.

BOHtox · 12-05-2012 06:58PM

thebman wrote: »

FF up because of supporting the treaty from opposition I imagine.

The one Collins or Kenny signed? :cool:

Sierra Oscar · 12-05-2012 07:44PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Seriously SO, do you think that the electorate would elect FF when it comes to a GE

Traditionally, opinion polls actually underestimate FF support by 1 - 2% whereas they tend to overestimate FG support. RedC's last opinion poll of GE11 had FF on 15% whereas the party actually polled around 17% on election day. It is just one of those oddities with opinion polling, other than that they are generally considered a very reliable indicator of voting intention.

nuac · 12-05-2012 09:14PM

Not sure if the Govt will go four more years.

Remember Jack Lynch's warning on the night of his 1977 victory - that a large majority can be dangerous and hard to manage.

If thngs get rougher some TDs may throw shapes to protect their seats.

If over the next few years Govt may get a good set of figures or a good result in EU negotiations, FG may bolt to the country for a mandate, seeking an overall majority.

They may do this sooner than later, while their support holds up

Mr.Micro · 12-05-2012 09:17PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Traditionally, opinion polls actually underestimate FF support by 1 - 2% whereas they tend to overestimate FG support. RedC's last opinion poll of GE11 had FF on 15% whereas the party actually polled around 17% on election day. It is just one of those oddities with opinion polling, other than that they are generally considered a very reliable indicator of voting intention.

Fair enough, but I still think that voters will be very scared to vote FF. The reality of the last administrations debacle is beginning to bite in most peoples lives now. We look at the spectre of Greece and perhaps we may even follow yet. A lot can happen in 4 years and voters are a fickle lot.

Eliot Rosewater · 12-05-2012 10:40PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Traditionally, opinion polls actually underestimate FF support by 1 - 2% whereas they tend to overestimate FG support. RedC's last opinion poll of GE11 had FF on 15% whereas the party actually polled around 17% on election day. It is just one of those oddities with opinion polling, other than that they are generally considered a very reliable indicator of voting intention.

I once read a theory that some voters who are opinion polled are embarrassed about their opinion and so lie to the poller.

Nodin · 12-05-2012 10:42PM

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I once read a theory that some voters who are opinion polled are embarrassed about their opinion and so lie to the poller.

the 'shy tory' thing?

Eliot Rosewater · 12-05-2012 10:47PM

Hah! Yeah, I think it might have been in the context of a UK Election I read it.

K-9 · 13-05-2012 12:29AM

thecommietommy wrote: »

Understandable FF are bouncing back since FG/Labour are but FF with a different name. Still interesting to see 1% of FG going to SF ( 1% Labour unsurprisingly going to SF ). Sorry to see the ULA/Inds not improving.

It's a 4% swing. I'd be very surprised half the FG swing went evenly to FF and SF, there is a margin of error in these things. I'd say the continual drop in Labour support is going to SF and the long term FG drop is going back to FF, makes sense as that is where FG got the biggest chunk of its increase.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Traditionally, opinion polls actually underestimate FF support by 1 - 2% whereas they tend to overestimate FG support. RedC's last opinion poll of GE11 had FF on 15% whereas the party actually polled around 17% on election day. It is just one of those oddities with opinion polling, other than that they are generally considered a very reliable indicator of voting intention.

Indeed, IIRC FF fared better even in the last election than polls indicated and FF in recent history have the shame factor like the Tories in England. If you went back to Haughey vs. Garret days it was the other way round, FF lost support and FG gained, hence Charlie calling it wrong so often!

The 2 and a half party system is very much dead but we've 2 opposition parties who I don't think want to be in power come the next Dail, and Labour could well be giving second thoughts of getting a consecutive kicking in the polls for doing the right thing! Labour have always suffered in elections after Government so I don't think they'll fancy becoming the Lib Dems of Irish politics.

Sierra Oscar · 13-05-2012 01:40AM

K-9 wrote: »

It's a 4% swing. I'd be very surprised half the FG swing went evenly to FF and SF, there is a margin of error in these things. I'd say the continual drop in Labour support is going to SF and the long term FG drop is going back to FF, makes sense as that is where FG got the biggest chunk of its increase.

I still believe that Labour will cease to exist down the line, with SF becoming the 'real Labour party' of Ireland.

Call me crazy, but I have that feeling!

mistermouse · 13-05-2012 02:51AM

See this govt lasting a while and maybe they're holding off positive news etc for later years. Maybe even they'll do a you turn on their u-turns coming up to an election

At present their is no other credible alternative given SF economic policies and FF's distrust issues.

I'd say they are all hoping the current govt will take the pain and leave things in a better state before an election, FG would need to be banking on it

Pete_Cavan · 13-05-2012 09:13AM

nuac wrote: »

Not sure if the Govt will go four more years.

Remember Jack Lynch's warning on the night of his 1977 victory - that a large majority can be dangerous and hard to manage.

If thngs get rougher some TDs may throw shapes to protect their seats.

If over the next few years Govt may get a good set of figures or a good result in EU negotiations, FG may bolt to the country for a mandate, seeking an overall majority.

They may do this sooner than later, while their support holds up

FG will be happy where they are until the Public Service Agreement (known as the Croke Park Agreement) is up for renewal. Lab will be between a rock and a hard place during the negotiations. FG may walk at this stage and spin it that Lab are trying to protect their vested interests (the unions) at the expense of the taxpayer and will blame any failings of the current government on Lab, while taking all the credit for any successes. FG wont have much competition for the middle and higher income private sector work vote in that case and with Lab, SF and ULA all scraping for the same voters, FG may well get in on their own or with the help of a few independents.

Cookie_Monster · 13-05-2012 10:03AM

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I once read a theory that some voters who are opinion polled are embarrassed about their opinion and so lie to the poller.

that, combined with the tiny base number of only 1,000 makes all these polls irrelevant IMO

Sierra Oscar · 13-05-2012 10:14AM

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

that, combined with the tiny base number of only 1,000 makes all these polls irrelevant IMO

RedC are considered to provide the most accurate polling within the industry and lead the research industry in Ireland.

Random digital dialling is utilized to ensure that their polling is representative of the electorate as a whole - and the 1,000 sample size is the internationally recognised required sample size for ensuring accuracy.

hatrickpatrick · 13-05-2012 10:47AM

Michael Noonan once said of Fianna Fail
"Ceann Comhairle d'you know what I always think of, when I think of Fianna Fail and popularity? Hootie and the Blowfish. Hootie and the Blowfish have sold over 40 million albums, Ceann Comhairle, but you know, nobody knows exactly who bought them - or why they bought them. And anybody who DID buy, the old Hootie and the Blowfish balderdash, is always ashamed to admit it!"

junk_seller · 13-05-2012 01:06PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

FG will be happy where they are until the Public Service Agreement (known as the Croke Park Agreement) is up for renewal. Lab will be between a rock and a hard place during the negotiations. FG may walk at this stage and spin it that Lab are trying to protect their vested interests (the unions) at the expense of the taxpayer and will blame any failings of the current government on Lab, while taking all the credit for any successes. FG wont have much competition for the middle and higher income private sector work vote in that case and with Lab, SF and ULA all scraping for the same voters, FG may well get in on their own or with the help of a few independents.

im not entirely convinced that FG are that desperete to dump croke park , all political parties in this country court the public sector vote , if thier is any way of maintaining the agreement , i think the goverment will

Kinski · 13-05-2012 01:36PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I still believe that Labour will cease to exist down the line, with SF becoming the 'real Labour party' of Ireland.

It's the oldest party in the state bar SF; going into government with FG looks as short-sighted a decision in terms of building long-term support as the post-Springtide coalition with FF was, but I wouldn't start writing the obituary just yet.

Red C Polls, Yes vote strengthens, bad news for FG

Comments