Hollande won't ratify Fiscal Treaty

Scofflaw · 25-04-2012 02:50PM #1

OK, this has been on again off again, with Hollande originally saying he wouldn't ratify it, then reports that he would settle for an ancillary pact on jobs and growth. However, he has now announced at a press conference that he definitely will not ratify if elected:

Francois Hollande, the leading canndidate to become France’s next president, said that France won’t ratify the euro fiscal pact in its current form if he is elected. He spoke at a press conference in Paris.

and

Sensing the wind on the issue is at his back, Fracois Hollande is pushing for a renegotiation of the Fiscal Compact or a new treaty all together.

Says he’ll be firm, friendly in talks with Merkel
Need for avoid conflict between France and Germany
Markets remain calm after his first round victory
Says Fiscal Compact won’t be ratified by France

EUR/USD is falling back as the fiscal compact looks like it may go to its grave before ever reaching a vote…

That's probably going to have to be Hollande's definitive position at this stage. I guess we find out on May 7-8th what it means from our point of view.

cordially,
Scofflaw

beeftotheheels · 25-04-2012 02:54PM

That's cheered me up enough to post this (which is amusing).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZfzAOooEOU&feature=related

All he has to do now is win. If France doesn't ratify it they'll hardly make it to the 12 needed to make it effective given the election in the Netherlands.

Scofflaw · 25-04-2012 03:27PM

beeftotheheels wrote: »

That's cheered me up enough to post this (which is amusing).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZfzAOooEOU&feature=related

All he has to do now is win. If France doesn't ratify it they'll hardly make it to the 12 needed to make it effective given the election in the Netherlands.

It looks from where we are now that he'll be the next President, and I can't see the Treaty going ahead without France. Whatever about the technical requirements, it wouldn't really make sense.

Also, I do like the irony that the video is a supposed satire on a non-existent pretending-to-be-objective Yes video.

cordially,
Scofflaw

beeftotheheels · 25-04-2012 03:48PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Also, I do like the irony that the video is a supposed satire on a non-existent pretending-to-be-objective Yes video.

Good, isn't it, especially with the No campaign rallying supporters to the "austerity treaty" myth, and with previous No campaigns rallying votes over abortion, conscription and our precious corporation tax rate none of which were threatened.

But to avoid this vote, or at least to get to the position where we're pretty comfortable that the treaty is a nullity before we vote on it, would be really great.

liammur · 25-04-2012 04:38PM

It really is showing the whole EU project up as a farce. France were having a right go at Cameron a while back for not going ahead with it, and now,,,,we hear this chap won't ratify it. Just how long can this go on for?

Scofflaw · 25-04-2012 04:54PM

liammur wrote: »

It really is showing the whole EU project up as a farce. France were having a right go at Cameron a while back for not going ahead with it, and now,,,,we hear this chap won't ratify it. Just how long can this go on for?

It's certainly amazing the way the positions of countries change when they change their governments, isn't it.

regards,
Scofflaw

later12 · 25-04-2012 05:30PM

liammur wrote: »

It really is showing the whole EU project up as a farce. France were having a right go at Cameron a while back for not going ahead with it, and now,,,,we hear this chap won't ratify it. Just how long can this go on for?

I don't think that's particularly outrageous.

However, I don't believe Hollande is serious in the degree to which he claims to wish to alter the fiscal compact. Lets not forget the fact that he is trying to win an election, and that this is one area of economic policy (a Sarkozy strong point) for which Sarkozy has no response which will prove popular.

Hollande is merely spotting Sarkozy's only economic weak point and hitting it. We are looking at his statements through the lens of a Presidential election, and we should be aware of that before celebrating the supposed demise of the TSCG.

GSF · 25-04-2012 07:07PM

later12 wrote: »

I don't think that's particularly outrageous.

However, I don't believe Hollande is serious in the degree to which he claims to wish to alter the fiscal compact. Lets not forget the fact that he is trying to win an election, and that this is one area of economic policy (a Sarkozy strong point) for which Sarkozy has no response which will prove popular.

Hollande is merely spotting Sarkozy's only economic weak point and hitting it. We are looking at his statements through the lens of a Presidential election, and we should be aware of that before celebrating the supposed demise of the TSCG.

Hollande's way or Frankfurt's way?

Striaght from the Labour book of how to win votes! Dont believe a word of it.

recedite · 25-04-2012 07:13PM

later12 wrote: »

However, I don't believe Hollande is serious in the degree to which he claims to wish to alter the fiscal compact. Lets not forget the fact that he is trying to win an election.

Or like when Enda got elected here whilst shouting "Burn the bondholders"

Scofflaw · 25-04-2012 07:27PM

later12 wrote: »

I don't think that's particularly outrageous.

However, I don't believe Hollande is serious in the degree to which he claims to wish to alter the fiscal compact. Lets not forget the fact that he is trying to win an election, and that this is one area of economic policy (a Sarkozy strong point) for which Sarkozy has no response which will prove popular.

Hollande is merely spotting Sarkozy's only economic weak point and hitting it. We are looking at his statements through the lens of a Presidential election, and we should be aware of that before celebrating the supposed demise of the TSCG.

I'd go with that on a general level, but I think a definitive, high-profile and obviously contentious statement so near the election is rather likely to be carried into action, particularly when it's the left-wing candidate we're talking about.

cordially,
Scofflaw

liammur · 25-04-2012 10:18PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's certainly amazing the way the positions of countries change when they change their governments, isn't it.

regards,
Scofflaw

And, now it seems it doesn't even need a change of government:

Nicolas Sarkozy has promised to hold a referendum on Europe's fiscal pact, dealing a hammerblow to Angela Merkel's "non-negotiable" plans to impose austerity on the eurozone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9227150/French-President-Nicolas-Sarkozys-fiscal-pact-referendum-deals-a-hammerblow-to-Angela-Merkels-austerity-plan.html

Scofflaw · 25-04-2012 11:43PM

liammur wrote: »

And, now it seems it doesn't even need a change of government:

Nicolas Sarkozy has promised to hold a referendum on Europe's fiscal pact, dealing a hammerblow to Angela Merkel's "non-negotiable" plans to impose austerity on the eurozone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9227150/French-President-Nicolas-Sarkozys-fiscal-pact-referendum-deals-a-hammerblow-to-Angela-Merkels-austerity-plan.html

Funnily enough, the people I think are likely to be happiest about this are those who were, like me, going to be giving it a grudging 'Yes'.

Also, I can't help but note the absence of the usual complaints from No advocates that we're being held hostage to French domestic politics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Ozymandius2011 · 26-04-2012 12:39AM

Francois Hollande seems to be supporting a no vote, and insists he will not ratify!

Irish Times wrote:

“There will be a renegotiation,” Mr Hollande said. “Will the treaty be changed? I hope so. Or another treaty arranged? That is up for negotiation. But the treaty, as is, will not be ratified.”

Mr Hollande noted that three countries had already ratified the pact, but added: “We don’t know the result of the [Irish] referendum. And you know, at times Ireland has been capable of saying No.”

Scofflaw · 26-04-2012 12:41AM

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Francois Hollande seems to be supporting a no vote, and insists he will not ratify!

Sure - an Irish Yes would put quite a bit of pressure on him, because it's a very public mandate for ratification as it stands. A No supports his position.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Cavehill Red · 26-04-2012 12:50AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Funnily enough, the people I think are likely to be happiest about this are those who were, like me, going to be giving it a grudging 'Yes'.

Also, I can't help but note the absence of the usual complaints from No advocates that we're being held hostage to French domestic politics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I advocate a no vote. And yes, we are being held hostage by French domestic politics, which makes a meagre change from being held hostage by German domestic politics. In this case, a small improvement.

stringed theory · 26-04-2012 12:58PM

Sarkozy will need the support of the senate to ratify the treaty if he loses control of the assembly in june. If he doesn't get this support he will hold a referendum, something that M Fillon has mentioned before, but not the president - and really, this is only a subtle change in direction, recognizing what everyone knows anyway = that he might not be able to ratify the treaty, even if re elected ( and it's a story I couldn't actually find anywhere today in le figaro, or liberation, for example) and it's not quite the HAMMER BLOW that the London Telegraph likes to gloat about

from french yahoo

"Avant la fin de l'année 2012, je ferai voter la règle d'or (...) qui obligera une nouvelle majorité à tendre vers le déficit zéro", a déclaré le chef de l'Etat, candidat à un second mandat, lors d'un meeting à Cernay, en Alsace.

"Tous les pays d'Europe se sont engagés à le faire", a-t-il ajouté. "Si le Sénat devait s'opposer à l'adoption de cette règle, avant la fin de l'année 2012, j'organiserai un référendum pour demander au peuple français ce qu'il en pense."

Nothing really new about Hollande's position either. He's always wanted to renegotiate. The anglo-american media always spin these stories to suit their agenda.

hatrickpatrick · 27-04-2012 05:32PM

If Hollande gets elected, it could well mean the end of the Franco-German bully circle at long last. Dare we to hope?

You can almost taste Merkel's alarm at these developments

Scofflaw · 27-04-2012 10:33PM

In a further entertaining development, Angela Merkel has said that the Treaty can't be renegotiated because, amongst other things, there's an Irish referendum on it:

Merkel: The fiscal pact is negotiated, he was signed by 25 heads of government and has been ratified by Portugal and Greece. Parliaments throughout Europe are about to adopt it. In Ireland, it takes place in late May a referendum. He is not renegotiable. The subject of growth, the reminder for some time now, is also in addition to the already strong finances, the second pillar of our policy.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.derwesten.de%2Fpolitik%2Fangela-merkel-sieht-piraten-als-ansporn-fuer-etablierte-parteien-id6597382.html

amused,
Scofflaw

beeftotheheels · 27-04-2012 10:39PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

In a further entertaining development, Angela Merkel has said that the Treaty can't be renegotiated because, amongst other things, there's an Irish referendum on it:

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.derwesten.de%2Fpolitik%2Fangela-merkel-sieht-piraten-als-ansporn-fuer-etablierte-parteien-id6597382.html

amused,
Scofflaw

Now there's a woman with her finger on the pulse of Irish public opinion!

golden lane · 06-05-2012 10:44PM

it is one line.....as yours is.......but a very serious one.......

carveone · 06-05-2012 10:58PM

Both oneliners have vanished anyway!

Wild Bill wrote: »

The treaty is now dead.

I'm more in agreement with what the Taniste said in France today (I'm paraphrasing) where he said that the fiscal compact would still go ahead and Holland's demand for growth-boosting elements to be included wouldn't be an issue, it would be welcomed.

I guess we'll have to see what he (Hollande) says in the next day or two but I think discussion with the Germans will be taking place pretty promptly if they haven't already. I'd be awfully surprised if the compact was dumped but you wouldn't find me taking bets on it

Edit: Ooops. Sorry K9, as soon as I stepped into a mod's shoes I knew I shouldn't have

K-9 · 06-05-2012 11:01PM

golden lane wrote: »

it is one line.....as yours is.......but a very serious one.......

carveone wrote: »

Both oneliners have vanished anyway!

Cut out the one liners please and keep it on topic.

Wild Bill · 07-05-2012 12:40AM

K-9 wrote: »

Cut out the one liners please and keep it on topic.

The treaty we are to vote "yes" for on May 31st is dead.

The treaty is supported by illegitimate Government parties that lied their way to power.

These parties are, in my opinion, guilty of treason.

OK?

K-9 · 07-05-2012 12:51AM

Wild Bill wrote: »

The treaty we are to vote "yes" for on May 31st is dead.

The treaty is supported by illegitimate Government parties that lied their way to power.

These parties are, in my opinion, guilty of treason.

OK?

As per the charter you cannot go around claiming groups are guilty of treason, especially without evidence, in my opinion isn't an excuse.

FreudianSlippers · 07-05-2012 10:44AM

His additions to the treaty seem very minor and insignificant to me... I'd imagine they will be sorted out and added overnight without requirement for Ireland to alter the referendum.

Ozymandius2011 · 07-05-2012 02:46PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

His additions to the treaty seem very minor and insignificant to me... I'd imagine they will be sorted out and added overnight without requirement for Ireland to alter the referendum.

That is unclear, and Merkel is reported on the radio today as opposing the addition of pro-growth measures that would increase borrowing, which Hollande has said he wants. Merkel also has a lot to prove with elections on the way next year and the Social Democrats scepticism about the Treaty. Bear in mind the latter party controls the Bundesrat and can block ratification. If she is seen as caving into to demands for more runaway public spending at the expense of the German taxpayer then it's electoral curtains for her.

ouncer · 07-05-2012 06:24PM

the treaty over its history can be seen as something that is being made up as it goes along. now this is understandable as new ground is been broken. however with hollande now in place, the german tax payer sick of the cost, greece going right wing because of austerity, new netherlands government because of deep discontent it does seem that this is a boiling pot. i would rather that ireland wasn't next in the firing line with the referendum because a 'NO' vote could simply be the final straw. and then what happens to europe.

I always believed in the concept of the euro currency to allow ease of business across international boundaries. My, maybe simplistic viewpoint, is that the Euro project has since taken on a life that sits uncomfortably with many. Currency is one thing, fiscal controls is another. I guess it is not Europes fault that its participants went financially haywire, and Europe is now left to pick up the mess or call it a day

Hollande won't ratify Fiscal Treaty

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