My Portfolio

turbobaby · 06-04-2012 11:50AM

Back to updates on my portfolio.

The EUR 5k profit level has been lost, as the drop continued.

However, yesterday's drop was mainly as a result of the previously mentioned price premium for the Canadian listing of HRT Petroleo.

PCI recovered some losses with a 4.4% gain, as we get closer to the next RNS. It will likely be news of the Italian onshore farm out (already overdue) or confirmation from Sonatrach that the Ain Tsila field is commercial.

Chariot spudded their first well offshore Namibia and this is likely to take 70 days before we know the results. 25% chance of success.

Word from Brazil is that the drill results will be ready late next week. Oil combined with good porosity will make a huge difference to the share price, and make the small drop over the last month a mere blip!

OfflerCrocGod · 06-04-2012 02:17PM

turbobaby wrote: »

I will keep this brief as I am not comfortable with you clogging up this thread with your nonsense.

There's nonsense all right but it's not me who's writing it.

turbobaby wrote: »

Yes, demand for oil in Japan and in emerging markets is certainly up, and yes of course the easily assessible stuff is running out, but you also need to realise that demand in the US and Europe is down significantly, due to high unemployment and lower real incomes.

This is from the March report.

IEA wrote:

• High oil prices and a subdued global economic backdrop are expected to contain demand for oil in
2012. Global oil consumption is seen reaching 89.9 mb/d in 2012, a gain of 0.8 mb/d (or 0.9%) on
2011. Estimates for absolute demand and growth for 2011 and 2012 are largely unchanged compared
to last month’s report.

• The preliminary data series for January indicates global oil demand of 88.4 mb/d, 0.7 mb/d more
than assumed last month. Significantly stronger data from China (up 475 kb/d on our month earlier
estimate), Germany (+115 kb/d) and Japan (+110 kb/d) lead the revision, although higher prices limit
feed through to the rest of 2012.

• OECD demand growth continues to lag that in the non‐OECD. Oil consumption in the OECD fell by
0.5 mb/d in 2011 to 45.6 mb/d, whereas non‐OECD demand rose by 1.3 mb/d, to 43.5 mb/d. Partly a
consequence of the OECD’s weaker macroeconomic underpinnings, the divergent trend is magnified
by the presence of subsidies in the non‐OECD. The IMF assumes OECD GDP growth of 1.1% in 2012
(1.6% in 2011) versus 5.7% in the non‐OECD (6.2% in 2011). OECD demand is expected to fall by a
further 0.4 mb/d to 45.2 mb/d in 2012. Non‐OECD consumption should rise further in 2012, up by
1.2 mb/d to 44.7 mb/d.

So basically all the falls in OECD markets are being more then made up for by increases in non-OECD markets with continuing demand growth.

turbobaby wrote: »

Doubts about supplies from Iran will also put upward pressure on the price, but they are still selling their oil, this talk of supply constraints is not true. It's an easy excuse for Obama... Blame the Arabs, blame the Chinese. Don't blame me and my massive budget deficits.

That's not how you run a business turbo. You start cutting imports well before the date - which is what's happening.

Reuters wrote:

Growing pressure by the West has led some Iranian oil buyers to cut imports, but the problem over obtaining maritime insurance could altogether halt shipments to Asian customers. Chinese imports from Iran are already down more than 21 percent in the first two months of 2012 to around 395,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year.

On top of that insurance is now being withdrawn from tanker operators.

Without insurance there's no chance anyone is shipping anything from Iran.

MarketWatch wrote:

Last month, Iranian crude exports fell by 300,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data from oil-shipping consultancy Petro-Logistics SA.

James D. Hamilton wrote:

As for the first possibility, there appears to be only a limited amount of excess oil-producing capacity at the moment, and certainly far short of the 4.3 million barrels per day that Iran produced in the first three quarters of 2011.

Of course it's not just Iran that's a problem.

IEA wrote:

largely due to
weather and mechanical‐related field outages in the North Sea and Canada, continued unrest and
additional sanctions in Syria, pipeline sabotage and labour strikes in Colombia and Yemen, and the transit
dispute between Sudan and South Sudan. The latter dispute is likely to dent non‐OPEC output in 2012 by
around 280 kb/d compared to 1H11 levels. These unplanned shut‐ins total more than 750 kb/d in 1Q12.

turbobaby wrote: »

Saudi oil minister: “there is no rational reason for high oil prices.” Instead he argued “fundamentally the market remains balanced. It is the perceived shortage of oil keeping prices high – not the reality on the ground. There is no lack of supply. There is no demand which cannot be met.”

There you have it. Demand might be up a little maybe, supply is fine. The third variable which you blindly ignore is the supply of the cash used to pay for the stuff.

Yes the Saudis are increasing their supply. It's a pity that it's mostly going to the US which has got a shortage of oil compared to Europe.

Reuters wrote:

Contrary to expectations that the modest recent rise in the kingdom's output was bound for fast-growing Asian markets, preliminary data shows that shipments to the United States have quietly risen 25 percent to the highest level since mid-2008

Also they produce heavy, sour crude which is not wanted by European refineries especially as we are coming into the summer season (air quality laws, smog thicker in summer so they can't use it).
This is from last year but we have the same dynamics and the same refineries...

FoxBusiness wrote:

If only more people liked sour products (think crude, not candy), maybe Saudi Arabia wouldn't have taken an axe to its oil output.
Much to cash-strapped consumers' dismay, the Saudis last weekend revealed that they slashed crude oil production due to what they see as a glut in supplies -- despite painfully-high gasoline prices.
The main reason behind the move, and confusing price action, appears to be a lack of global appetite for the sour blend of crude oil produced by Saudi Arabia and the intense desire for the light, sweet blend produced by wartorn Libya.
“There is a glut of supply of the type of crude that Saudis produce, but nobody wants: heavy crude,” said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at PFGBEST and a FOX Business contributor.

Iran produces lots of sweet and light crude though.

Damn.

turbobaby wrote: »

It is basic economics. Think back to your Premier League sticker selection. The rare stickers were far more valuable than the ones which were hard to find. When you got more and more of Steve Ogrizovic, you were willing to give multiples of them all away to your friends for just one shiney club crest.

The supply of dollars here is a major factor in the price of oil priced in dollars. Not the only factor, but a major one.

As for your comments re natural gas. The supply of some commodities rises higher than the supply of the dollars / demand chasing them. Natural gas in the US for instance. Mobile phones, TVs and most consumer electronics too. This is where production of the goods is greater than the production of dollars.

If you have lots of money buying spot Brent oil is possibly the dumbest thing you could do, storing it is not free, insuring it is not free. Why lose money when you can make money by rolling forward contracts as Brent is in backwardation? The aim is to make money not lose it. The curve is crying out that Brent is a very tight physical market.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 5.02 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts, down from 6.88 percent.

Why lose money buying and storing spot when you can make money from backwardation? What's happening is as you say 'basic economics' it's just supply and demand nothing more. Supply is tight and demand is inelastic so the price shoots up.

turbobaby · 06-04-2012 03:26PM

Ok, fair points, you believe that supply is really constrained and demand is high from Asia.

I love the way you just dodge my comments regarding the massive supply of currency chasing oil though.

Anyway, I would like you to put this discussion to rest on this thread, and we can both leave it free from macro economic discussion.

I have set up another thread where you can argue with me over the future of the US economy if you wish.

I would be genuinely interested to see your own portfolio. It doesn't have to be your real portfolio, just make up a "fantasy" portfolio. You seem like a smart guy, just a little misguided by Keynesianism! You clearly have divergent views to me, so it would benefit me and and the rest of the readers if you could put a portfolio up over this long bank holiday to see an alternative view.

In fact, the more the merrier!

Free and easy here... www.zignals.com or at www.google.com/finance , or simply take €50k and using yesterday's closing prices pick your stocks and write them up. No need to take it too seriously either.

Thargor, Ollie, Neil, etc should also play along! We could all learn from each other.

ixus · 06-04-2012 08:47PM

I'll make my QE/Oil comments on your new thread.

Regarding your portfolio turbo, I'd have serious reservations over your management of it. You made some serious gains early on and that is to be commended. But, to go from +15K to sub 5K is poor managment.

This is where a plan would have come in best. Simply saying, I'm in for the long haul, or this or that is undervalued isn't a plan. You make some comments about certain holdings being undervalued but, did you ever think they were overvalued when they were performing so strongly?

There's a saying; "always take windall profits".

I'd suggest a strategy whereby you took a percentage of profits for every X amount you made and reduce your position by a percentage by every X amount you lost.

What I see potentially happening here is your account going into the negative and you refusing to take the loss because of the position you were once in, or adding on to your losers. It is a very common occurrence in trading.

Anyway, something to think about.

freeze4real · 06-04-2012 09:14PM

I love your fundamental analysis. Will be following the order thread closely. Hopefully it doesn't die out like the currency trading one.

turbobaby · 06-04-2012 09:15PM

Ixus, I appreciate your comments and you are completely right that if one was trading it would be advisable to take some profits. I for one am not a trader.

I am not good enough to know when is the right time to sell. In fact the majority of trader are not but will not admit it. Why at €15k and not at €5k on the way up...

I have no desire to sell HRT before they drill in Namibia.

Hindsight is great, and if you look at the news releases since HRT hit its peak they were all positive.

News results for PCI are overdue.

SDR reaults were not good enough so I have a sell order in place.

I'm not in the business of predicting short term movements, but I do like to follow the markets daily out of interest!

ixus · 06-04-2012 09:56PM

It's not a time element I suggest, rather a business plan.

For example, for every 5K I make or lose, I take 20% or 1K off the table.

So, you could have gone someting like this:

Account +5K = Take 1K out.
4K left.
Account +9K = take 1.8K out.
7.2K left
Account goes 12.2K = Take 2.4K out.
9.8K left.
Account +4.8K = Take 0.8K out.
4K left

This way you have taken out around 6K and have 4K left in your account.
You could ride this to zero then while maintaining your 5K rule.

The hard part would be knowing which individual products to profit take from because you could have one product making your gains on two consecutive moves. So, it's not exact. It's just one way of looking at your money management. Picking the right products was the hard part. The money management can be the easy one if you set rules and stick to them.

turbobaby · 06-04-2012 10:22PM

I see where you are coming from now and it does make a lot of sense, (as it stands) but the obvious flaws on quick reflection are as follows:

1) That you are taking profits out from the best performing shares (as you pointed out).

2) If you want to avoid the first problem, you're going to have to sell positions from each of your holdings. Now this is ok for me with such a concentrated portfolio, or if someone simply has an index fund or two, but it will rack up broker fees.

3) There may be a urge to put the profits into one of the underperforming shares, thinking there is great value to be had when in fact you're just getting deeper into a loser.

There is also a mental element to it in that the trades can go either way. While it is always nice to bank profits, I personally would be upset that I took profits off the table a day before good results were announced. It's the introduction of trading and the resulting mental swings that could do more damage.

I have targets in mind for each share and I am pretty happy with the allocoation right now. For example, with HRT it's Namibia drilling. PCI it's declaration of commercial viability in Algeria and Italian drilling.

The profits or losses I receive will be down to these results and not as a result of market swings.

I will think about it a bit more though, as it does seem like a sensible approach if I can tweek it for my own profile.

Sharehunter · 09-04-2012 11:19AM

Turbobaby I have enjoyed your posts and fair play to you for putting your cards on the table for everyone to see.
I'll keep it short as I have just written this post already and lost it as I was logged out. Aggh !
I started daily trading in December 2008 and was constantly told on boards.ie that I was mad, didn't know what I was doing, plan fundamentally flawed etc. etc..
Anyhow after a good couple of years I had a spell spreadtrading with Marketspreads, attending their seminars and also the monthly meetings orgainised by PJ Henry of Stockactive(education is a must for spreading), did ok but it is not for me.
Like you I am in - very in - PCI since the 4.5p days and this has put a bit of a stop to my daily/weekly trading as I have 95% in PCI. At my target of 18-22p I will sell 50% and leave the rest for Kurdistan and Italy to develop.
Only daily/weekly trades now are with Aviva and am waiting to get rid of Vodafone as they are too stable for my uses.
Anyway I enjoy your posts and wish you luck.
You do what you do and you should enjoy it.
Are you at risk.....hell yes but then so is anyone that trades.
Keep it up.
Sharehunter.
PS> Please excuse typo's - post rushed.

turbobaby · 09-04-2012 08:47PM

Thanks for following and I'm glad you're enjoying it.

95% in PCI is very high alright. Despite how undervalued I think you are, you could speak to almost all shareholders in the junior explorer space and they'll all tell you their companies are massively undervalued.

Hopefully you should get a chance to reduce your position after the field is confirmed as commercial. The condensate might get the market interested again, but who is to know how it will react! AIM is a strange place.

Chart analysis should help you alright, but in my view it's the fundamentals that drive these juniors. The charts could be giving out all the right signals but they don't know the results of drills yet to be spudded.

Sharehunter · 10-04-2012 10:16AM

PCI is not a share I can apply technicals to as the volumes are not there most of the time. It's purely fundamentals here for me.
I know "having all your eggs" and all that but this is my long term'er and I am quite confident about it.
I can't help being a little wary, and scared, for some of the posters involved in these AIM shares when I see nothing but blind optimism (spelling) and their complete aversion to negative comments. Makes me wonder are they following like sheep without any research whatsoever.

Anyway onwards and upwards...and probaly downwards a bit !

Hunter.

turbobaby · 10-04-2012 01:31PM

With the further drops in gold and silver miners in the last week, I decided to bite the bullet and sell my shares in Stroud. Average price a little under 5.2c having bought at 7.5c. That equates to a Eur 1.5k loss.

Just before close yesterday I picked up a small amount of shares in MBG (Malbex Resources) at 20c. I have previously owned these shares, buying and selling at 37c, so I'm absolutely delighted to be back in at 20c. It's just a shame I could only pick up 7,500 shares.

I have some free cash to spend, and with many precious metal miners at 52 week lows, I should not struggle to find a bargain as I have recently been compiling a shortlist of juniors I like.

Once I have made my purchase I will update the thread.

turbobaby · 11-04-2012 08:59AM

What a day yesterday. I won't say carnage as I'm sure there will be worse days ahead, but it was a rough day yesterday for stocks. European debt worries and comments from Ben Bernanke that the US economy has yet to recover. Old news!

HRT released further news from a neighbouring well in which they previously discovered gas and condensate.

HRT Participacoes wrote:

The test was successfully concluded on April 8 and exhibited exceptional flow characteristics through a vertical well, reaching a production of 13.1 million cubic feet (370 thousand cubic meters) of gas per day with choke of 40/64

This result met our expectations. The well drilled on a previously untested structure opens up a new gas production trend in the Solimões Basin. We believe that this structure has a potential flow rate of 70.7 million cubic feet (2 million cubic meters) of natural gas per day when it reaches its development phase." mentioned Milton Franke, Chief Executive Officer of HRT O&G

The market did not agree with Milton. It finished down 7.76%.

As I have pointed out here before, the Canadian listing often trades at a premium to the Brazilian price. Yesterday, it continued throughout the day but lowered as the day progressed. At the open there was over a 3% divergence so I sold 4700 shares at $3.18, buying back 2400 shares at $3.07 shortly before the close. I hope to buy the rest back today.

Shareholders of Petroceltic will remember the dusters in the south of Ain Tsila. Tom Hickey told us that PCI were forced to drill there by the Algerian authorities, and he knew there would be little chance of success finding gas there. Despite this, the market savagely sold PCI after the Southern drill results.

I see a very similar pattern emerging here as the West zone of the Solimoes is gas prone, and their gas is currently worthless. They have yet to announce their gas monetization plans. Natural gas is significantly more expensive in Brazil than the US and other South American countries. Almost all natural gas is imported from Bolivia.

As I mentioned before, there is potential for oil in the next well and results will be out very soon.

The rest of my order for Malbex shares was fully filled yesterday at 20c. It is a junior gold, silver and copper miner with four mines in Argentina and Peru. It has fallen sharply in the last three months (55%) :eek: and results are due so it would appear that the results might be less than stellar. This is a pure speculation play with 5% of my portfolio. The market cap is $26m and they have cash of ~ $11m.

My portfolio is now showing a profit of less than €3k, about 17% off its high.

turbobaby · 18-04-2012 07:24AM

Time for another update as the €2k profit level has been lost, and in reality it is closer to break even, as HRT is still trading at a premium to the Brazilian shares, and EOG is still languishing around the 80c-95c area.

After the first four weeks I had accumulated €15k in profits and then six weeks later back to square one, but that is not the full story.

While nothing has happenend with PCI, I have held through a quiet period, and in my experience the junior explorers drift lower with no news releases. Soon (next week) they will release their conclusions regarding the Algerian drilling campaign, and after the exceptional results at the end of the campaign I expect the development report to be very good.

After this, but still during Q2, the next driver will be an Italian farm out and maybe further news from Algeria (2nd farm out and announcement of gas contract).

The big drop has been driven by HRT shares, which I find very surprising. Over the last six weeks, news coming from HRT has only been positive. Further gas finds (in gas wells!), preparation of the Namibian farm out, ratification of TNK's farm in to the Solimoes. Blackrock have increased their stake, the exploration period of the Namibian blocks has been extended and the spudding of drill 8. Granted, the markets in general have suffered but HRT has been oversold in my opinion.

As the most recent big drop coincides with the pending results of 170/06 , some might argue that inside information has been linked and those in the know have sold out. I don't believe this is the case. The market was hopeful of oil from drill number 4, and in the week leading up to results the share price rose by 10%. No oil was found and the market sold off savagely. If insiders did not sell off then, why would this time be any different. I believe investors are panicking, getting cold feet and selling off before the results are announced. Why invest in an oil exploration company if you don't have the stomach to wait for the drill results.

With respect to Eco Oil and Gas, disgruntled shareholders are claiming that the price is being suppressed in advance of a Namibian stock exchange listing, so that Namibian investors can get in on the cheap. I find this hard to believe, but I will wait and see.

Silver has been rangebound for quite a while now but the precious metal miners are still getting hammered. Total capitulation in that market. At the earliest opportunity I hope to take some out of PCI and into the miners as they are superb value at these prices. Malbex (bought at 20c) is now trading at 16c!

There are so many good miners to choose from so I'm hoping they stay down in the dumps as I wait for PCI to rise towards 10p +.

Screenshot:

collymcd · 18-04-2012 05:33PM

Tough run!

I've been following HRP closely for a while now. Strange that they are falling so much despite continuous positive news. Was beginning to wonder whether there has been some inside information about that I'm unaware of..

turbobaby · 18-04-2012 08:44PM

I bought into HRT for the oil in the East Solimoes but more importantly all their acreage offshore Namibia.

I really don't think it's insider selling. Markets have been pretty badly hit over the last 6 weeks.

Angola and Argentina have been in the news for bad reasons this week. Is that effecting the sp? I don't think it should be but maybe it is... Selling pressure pre drill results can create a cascade of selling as people fear the worst.

Take a look at this Rockhopper chart for instance!

turbobaby · 23-04-2012 07:09AM

Zignals have updated their database and include Eco Oil and Gas, so now my screenshots will fully reflect the balance of my speculations. Incidentally Eco have now listed in Namibia so maybe we will see the price manipulation stop and have it rise closer to its true value.

With the latest update comes a first: a negative return!

However, if rumours out of Brazil over the weekend are to be believed this negative return will only be a one day occurrence. I should know more at around one or two o'clock and will post news if it comes.

PCI should also be releasing news this week so it has the potential to be a cracking few days!

turbobaby · 28-04-2012 10:03PM

Apologies for the lack of posts this week (if anyone is still listening!). I started a new job this week and it's been keeping me pretty busy!

I last spoke about rumours from Brazil last weekend saying oil had been found in well 170/06. Well they were right! We got word after close of business on Friday. (During Thursday and Friday HRT rose 12%).

I mentioned that one of the factors behind HRT dropping like a stone from its highs was because Management lost all credibility from the institutional investors (IIs). They promised too much, too early and were guilty of giving too much information away in news releases. There has been a major shift in management's communication to the market since TNK-BP joined them in the Amazon. Yesterday's announcement of oil was kept simple. They will give full details after the formation tests have been completed.

Soon we will have the formation tests of well 194, where gas and condensate were found.

On May 28 the Brazil listing will have a 1:50 split. As the minimum trade size is 100 shares in Brazil, the current minimum in monetary terms is around $35k. Quite a lot for any investor junior investor to put into an exploration company. After the split the minimum will drop to $700, meaning your average private Brazilian investors will be able to invest.

Petroceltic announced their results. Nothing new except that the finalisation of the development report will be sometime in the next three months. More delays brought about by the government run Sonatrach in Algeria. So very frustrating!

I am considering dumping two thirds of my holdings and putting it into two precious metals miners with proven resources. It would kill me to sell PCI at 8p though!

As expected, EOG has risen nicely since the Namibian listing. However, I sold out all my holdings at 95c to put the funds back into HRT. From watching the price action of HRT over the last couple of months, it had hit stiff resistance at BRL$480, so when it dropped to $480 during the week, I felt there would be good support there, and true enough, there was! It the end, both HRT and EOG have risen the same amount since the trade. I will be looking to move back into EOG at some point soon though.

Malbex announced pretty horrendous drilling results, but still remains undervalued in my opinion as I feel these results were leaked and caused the drop over the last couple of weeks. Still happy to hold.

Talk in the precious metals arena of a bottom for gold and silver being in. Let's see if they move up over the next couple of weeks. I hope not, as I want the miners to stay down until I move some of my PCI shares into the miners.

My portfolio balance is slightly negative, but the HRT shares are out of synch with Brazil again, so I am in effect slightly positive.

From now on I will post screenshots in €2k intervals. Still confident of a 100% return by year's end!

Here's the three screenshots I didn't get a chance to post. 26/27/28 April. Back on an upwards trend! I think the worst is over....

turbobaby · 29-04-2012 01:45PM

It has been just over a month since I wrote the list of company specific drivers for the HRT share price. Maybe it's time for an update.

• Approval from the regulators (ANP) to transfer 45% of the Solimoes asset to TNK BP; Approved with no changes. Good.

• News about the arrival of four rigs in the Solimoes which were ordered from China; HRT are scaling down exploration in the Solimoes so it remains to be seen if they will take delivery of these rigs.

• Results of the drilling of well 170/6. Due mid April. 20km from a Petrobras oil discovery, so some oil is expected. Results announced late April. Oil was indeed found. Formation tests underway for the next month or so to find out if well will be commercial.

• Formation test results from well 192/1; Done. Results described by management as "exceptional" but the market did not agree.

• Commencement of drilling in Namibia by Chariot; Spudded April 5th. Expected to be completed by mid June. Chariot did not farm out this block and some are suggesting it is because management are very confident of success, despite stating only a 25% chance of success.

• Formation test results for well 170/6; Just started and results are expected in early June.

• A 1/50 share split on the Brazilian listing, enabling smaller investors to buy in; Confirmed to commence on May 28th 2012. The Canadian shares will also split, but we don't know the ratio yet.

• Results of drilling of the extension of well 194 (the first test found condensate, if there is oil in the extension it would be excellent news); Expected in the next week or two!

• Farm-out of Namibian assets to a major oil company. Data rooms have opened. Farm out likely to happen late June/July.

• Possible fracking in Solimoes to improve flow rates; No update.

• Results from Chariot's drilling in Namibia; Due mid June.

• Possible announcement of gas monetization; No update.

• Start to drill in Namibia; No update.

• Update to the certification of estimated barrels of oil in Namibia based on new seismic imaging already received; No update.

• Drilling in Solimoes to move easterly into areas more prone to oil; No update.

• Inclusion in the Ibovespa index. Expected to occur in September.

Very happy with the progress over the last month. HRT confirmed good flow rates of gas from one well and announced a discovery of oil in another. TNK BP are officially on board, and the share split has been confirmed. Meanwhile Chariot have started drilling in Namibia and HRT have opened their 3D seismic data room.

In this period the share price has dropped 14%.

rs500ff · 29-04-2012 08:05PM

Thanks TB and wishing you well. Keep the updates coming as I'm very interested to see how others make assessments.
I myself have increased my PCI holding to 250k. This is an absolute long term punt as far as I'm concerned but I think the next 12 months will transform their status. I just hope mgmt are savvy enough to keep costs to a minimum.

turbobaby · 01-05-2012 10:23AM

Sold 50,000 PCI shares yesterday at 7.8p to buy 37,000 shares of CMC Metals at 16c. What a bargain! I had hoped to buy Arian but that has run away over the last few days on no news.

My next miner buy will be a fully fledged producer. Malbex and CMC are juniors in pre-production and highly volatile (mainly to the downside at the moment!)

turbobaby · 05-05-2012 08:42AM

I will hopefully get a chance today to provide an update, but in short I sold another 50k PCI shares during the week (7.72p) and bought into another metals explorer (!) Herencia Resources (1.9p).

Sitting right now on -€4k returns

My bottom call was wrong, but I feel I'm very close to a breakout!

turbobaby · 07-05-2012 09:23AM

It seems the market sold off last week in anticipation of negative results from the French and Greek elections, and they were right to.

France are now led by a socialist who will not implement the much needed austerity, but will likely keep the government gravy train going using borrowed money. Likewise in Greece the anti bailout parties may control government and that will likely end the austerity there too. All this has to be long term positive for precious metals, as governments fail to keep costs under control and continue to run deficits perpetuating the need for low interest rates and money printing.

I sold approximately two thirds of my Petroceltic holdings last week despite still believing they are massively undervalued. I did this because I see even better value in the junior silver and gold miners. They have got absolutely battered over the last 12 months. This battering may continue but I am happy to hold at these prices. The share prices of miners are pricing in a huge drop for silver and gold. Not only do I think the PMs will hold their prices, I believe they will rise over the rest of the year, and when the miners are re-rated, the rises could be explosive! Time will only tell who is right.

turbobaby · 10-05-2012 06:22AM

Another quick update as the sell off has continued. Any shares with an element of risk - uncertainty are getting hammered. I still see it as a time to buy. Anyway, another change to my portfolio yesterday. Chariot Oil and Gas got beaten up badly this week. I watched to go to 200p only about two weeks ago. So when I watched it drop below 140p I sold the last portion of my PCI shares and jumped into CHAR at 137.15p. I actually timed it very well as it finished the day just under 150p.

They are exploring offshore Namibia, so my risk concentration has increased in that respect. They are drilling right now, so a duster there will badly hit over 50% of my portfolio.

HRT continues its slide. Unwarranted in my view, but that happens when speculating in explorers. We will get 1st quarter results today and a conference call tomorrow. Maybe some formation test results too! It is a screaming buy at these prices. The Solimoes is a proven oil and gas producing area and it is only a matter of time before HRT hit commercially producing wells there, exactly what the market desperately needs HRT to do.

Malbex Resources has capitulated!

Here's the latest two screenshots that I didn't have time to put up here.

-€6k has been broken! That's about a €21k drop from high to low.

COB 7/5/12

COB 9/5/12

aidanki · 11-05-2012 07:32AM

big fan of what you are doing, have a few quid at the moment so might do something the same in the not too distant future

Mr_Roger_Bongos · 11-05-2012 08:02AM

Hi Turbo,

Great to see the continuing updates, despite the results!

From your posts, you seem very convicted about the companies you're invested in but as we both know "the market can remain illogical for alot longer than you can remain solvent".

Given what your going through, would you consider using a trailing stop for part of your position in future? I.e. 2-3k profit in one company, sell half the shares if it comes back to 1.5k in profit?

It's obviously very tricky to pick bounces to get back in etc, just a suggestion as to how you might lock some profits in and cushion yourself from the swings.

turbobaby · 11-05-2012 10:21AM

Aidan,

I have found that by investing my money rather than letting it sit in the bank I have followed the political and economic news far more closely, and have learned more in the last couple of years about the markets than I ever did at school or university.

I left college with a business degree not even knowing how the basics of the stock market worked. Time spent learning bullsh1t subjects like change management and organisational behaviour is time wasted in my opinion. My point is that I would encourage anyone to do a bit of research and then start to invest their cash, a little at a time into whatever they deem appropriate. With money on the table you will be compelled to follow the markets and get an understanding of how everything works.

The first thing you should look at is the differing opinions of Keynesian economists and the Austrian School economists.

Roger,

Grecco suggested earlier that I should have a cash management system in place to "bank" profits on the way up and limit losses on the way down. It's something I have been looking into and thinking about, but I don't believe I have the discipline to follow such a system. I am happy to take the highs and lows as the come, without the worries of having losses brought about by my trades. In short, I think I would f@ck it up!

I said at the start of the thread that I planned to hold my physical silver, HRT and (to a lesser extent) PCI for a long time. Since then I have already sold out of PCI and the other share SDR. With respect to PCI I still think there is excellent value there, but other companies have got hit even harder (as I will explain below) since the start of the thread and felt they were more deserving of a punt than PCI who are serial promise breakers!

CMC Metals have an exploratory permit for their Silver Hart property in Canada. They are test drilling there and selling the recovered silver to China. They are on the brink of finding out if they will get the final permit from the State of California to re-open an old mill which will be used to process ore from nearby mines, which includes one of their own recently purchased mines (50% ownership).

My purchase of CMC Shares is an old fashioned punt that they will receive the final permit. If it is granted, their annual cashflow will be approximately the same as their current market cap :eek: from the Californian mine alone. The market doesn't like uncertainty or miners in general. I like both so this suits me down to the ground, especially at these prices.

The permit decision was due by the end of March, but as the permit is coming from a government run body I am not surprised there has been delays!

The other addition to the portfolio is Herencia Resources. It is a gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc miner in Chile, which a very mining friendly jurisdiction. They have hit bonanza grade silver, lead and zinc from one property and next week we will get drill results from the copper and gold mine. Production is scheduled to start next year. Silver Wheaton are rumoured to be considering a takeover! HER have been one on a long list of junior miners that can do nothing right in the eyes of the institutional investors.

My purchase of Chariot shares means that HRT and Chariot now represent 66% of my portfolio. Very top heavy there! I am under no illusions of how dangerous this is, as a failure to find oil in Namibia will destroy my portfolio.

In an ideal world, before the end of 2012: QE3 will be announced, CMC will have received their final permit, HER will have confirmed good grades of gold, HRT will have a producing oil well in Brazil and will also have found oil with Chariot in Namibia.

If all that occurs, there is no doubt that my portfolio's value will be over €100k.

That said, it is just as likely that CMC will be denied their permit, HER will find poor gold grades, HRT will continue to drill wells with poor porosity and the offshore Namibia wells will turn out to be full of water.

Mr_Roger_Bongos · 11-05-2012 10:52AM

turbobaby wrote: »

Grecco suggested earlier that I should have a cash management system in place to "bank" profits on the way up and limit losses on the way down. It's something I have been looking into and thinking about, but I don't believe I have the discipline to follow such a system. I am happy to take the highs and lows as the come, without the worries of having losses brought about by my trades. In short, I think I would f@ck it up!

That said, it is just as likely that CMC will be denied their permit, HER will find poor gold grades, HRT will continue to drill wells with poor porosity and the offshore Namibia wells will turn out to be full of water.

I suppose the purpose of having a system is that you can't **** it up. The broker will close out a % of your position if the price returns to x. It's automatic and doesn't involve your decision making.

Just on the 'Just as likely' bit, if it's almost a 50/50 bet these things will happen (not that i'd recommend it in the 1st place) trade management is vital, you've got to take profit and reduce risk if the result is a coin toss.

That's just my opinion, i've no doubt you done the work into the key events in these companies futures, it's merely a suggestion to help you keep the cash you had made.

Your ballsy though, i'll give you that! 100k or bust!

turbobaby · 11-05-2012 11:43AM

In practice that strategy would be very difficult for me to implement as all the shares I invest in are lightly traded with large spreads. My profit taking and loss limiting would come at a pretty high cost in terms of the spread and the trade costs.

The shares are also highly volatile. My stops could be triggered on a day when the share actually ends up positive. There's also the option to manage the profits with manual trades. In this case, emotion comes into play, and I am keen to avoid that. I would also have to decide when to get back involved in the share. I prefer the long term hold strategy as I am fully aware of my lack of expertese at this early stage of my investing!

At the end of the day I'm speculating on certain events happening for each company, and no amount of cash management will reduce that risk.

mickc10 · 11-05-2012 12:06PM

First time poster just lookign for some advice.

A long way off topic I know but just wanted to ask some advice off posters and thought people posting in this thread may be able to help.

Was given some vintage Irish notes as a gift for my 21st some years and wondered were they worth anything? I have about 15 - 20 different notes dated from the 50s & 60s made up of varying amounts of 10 Pound / 5 Pound / 1 Pound / 10 Shilling & 3 English £5 Notes (which are not dated).

Heading to the Euros which is costing a bomb so wondered if someone might firstly have some guess on how much they might be worth and secondly, have some advice on the best way to go about selling them. Cheers in advance.

My Portfolio

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