My Portfolio

Precious metals and the miners got battered again yesterday. Rumour: due to drops in the Chinese stock exchange, investors have had to sell PMs to meet margin calls. Not sure I believe that though.

Anyway, Stroud got trounced yesterday. Down 30% ! However, volume at the lower end was minimal so I expect that it was walked down to panic some investors into selling. Management are bad, but this should be worth far more than $9m.

I sold 10% of HRT yesterday in order to pick up some more Stroud at 4.5cent but only 4000 of my 180,000 bid was matched.

While I was watching Stroud, Eco Oil and Gas gave up almost all of their 30% gains yesterday as they were forced to announce that no material changes had occured to warrant the big rise. The material change came last week with the announcement of 7 billions of barrels of oil!

I will monitor the open today and if it doesn't run away, I will take a position there.

Will post a screenshot this afternoon reflecting yesterday's losses as the profit level fell below Eur 10k.

Thanks RS. I am enjoying writing it as it gives me a chance to monitor my comments, predictions, fears etc and learn from them as I am very new to this game.

OK, let me get the screenshot out of the way first. Disappointed to drop below the +€10k marker but like I said earlier, it can't always be rosy.



You will note that I sold 1,530 shares of HRP last night. Despite saying it was a very long term hold, I felt I had to buy some shares in Eco Oil and Gas after the price came back down a little after being up over 30% yesterday (as mentioned above).

It opened up today but not too bad, and I got my hands on 4,700 shares at $1.17. Initially, only partially matched but I didn't panic and chase the share up, and subsequently the price came back down to $1.17.

As Zignals don't have EOG.V on their system I have had to request it today, so I'm not sure how I will include it in my portfolio when it is added.

Happy to see SDR open +0.5c today too. Very light volumes on the order book so I expect it to jump around at these levels for a while.

Cheers Colly.

I'm not really sure what long term represents yet.

HRP.V is an exploration company right now. I want to hold it until there is production in Namibia. Obviously production is based on results, which obviously could go either way, but I really believe in this company.

We hear talk of Kurdistan being the last frontier. Namibia can rival Kurdistan. With Marcio Mello and his management team at HRT, I am confident he can find billions of barrels in Namibia, just like he did for Petrobras in Brazil.

The whole concept behind Namibia is that it once was landlocked with Brazil when Africa and S America were connected.

Brazilian investors I have spoken with have targets between $50 and $100 per share, and I think they are serious!

Ollie, thanks for that. I'm aware of Serica alright but they have many irons in the fire and now with this farm out, they are not a pure Namibian play.

It's great to see the majors getting involved with them, and brings more attention to Namibia.

HRT will farm out in H2 and we have been told by the CEO that there is a queue of majors forming.

Last night HRT announced they had found more gas from their 5th drill. The site was in the gas prone west zone and they did not yet mention that oil was found. However, the formation tests over the next 50 days will give more details about the well.

I think the market was expecting just gas so maybe we wont see a sell off today, as we did not hit a duster.

In about 2 weeks we will get the results from well six. There is a greater chance of oil here so I would suggest taking a position in HRT if we sell off on last nights results.

Anyone else monitoring this thread should also look into ECO.V. I bought in yesterday and I am delighted to have a position in this junior explorer. I can write more about this over the weekend.

A little recovery for SDR yesterday. Back up to 5.5c. Sell order in place at 6.5c.

Hi Billy, thanks for your post. It's true that starting off your investment career with high risk stocks is pretty bad mix, so I am grateful that I have not lost anything so far and learned more than I ever did in college about investing, and how the financial world works.

Well done on doubling your initial investment since changing investment strategy.

With regard to your view that shares are currently overbought. Perhaps you are right, but the huge amounts of cash swirling around (because of the very loose policy of all the major central banks) needs to find a home. As the Fed plans to try to keep rates at zero until 2014, I can not see a major drop coming. That said, I would not go near financial stocks, or companies with a lot of exposure to US consumers.

You mentioned Buffet and Schiff. I must admit Peter Schiff is a hero of mine, and I share a lot of his views.

Now, back to my share picks. A lot has happened in recent days that I should mention. Things are hotting up in Namibia. BP farmed into Serica's blocks, and also increased their participation in one of Chariot's blocks in the Nimrod prospect. They purchased the stake from Petrobras.

The market has digested the Serica news and as I type SQZ is up 15%.

My newest shareholding, EOG.V dropped back on Friday afternoon, bouncing off the $1.40 area again. I have no doubt that this share price represents significant value. They only have $7m cash but with Chariot and HRT drilling close to them this year, EOG will get a free ride as their block is derisked through the successful drills of their neighbours. Once the share price rises to a fairer value, maybe they will raise more cash through a private placement or just offer themselves up for a takeover. They also have the option of farming out and handing dilling responsibilities to a major.

HRT's shareprice reacted positively to the news on Friday that they had only found gas. The previous well was gas and condensate and the share price dropped significantly.

The problem with gas is that they do not yet have a plan to monetize whatever gas they find, as the blocks are deep in the amazon. However, Petrobras recently found gas also and as more and more gas is found, various options for monetization become more viable. I am no expert on this, but during the conference call various options were discussed. Therefore, it seems each additional gas discovery will have a more positive correlation with the share price.

We found out today that the Namibians have extended the exploritory period of all of HRT's licences. This takes pressure off the company to rush a drilling campaign, and also strenghtens their hand when negotiating the farm outs. It seems HRT have an excellent relationship with the Namibians, the importance of which cannot be understated!

SDR continued its mini recovery and my sell trade is sitting first in line, so any more decent buys and I will be out.

PCI continues to languish and frustrate, but I am confident its time will come shortly. Goldman Sachs getting involved would give it a nice boost.

Another drop to report. The €9k and €8k profit levels were lost yesterday as a sea of red took over my screen!

No specific news items were released relating to any shares but HRT, EOG, SDR and Silver all dropped.

Weak numbers out of the EU and China led to a "risk-off" day and, as always, the higher risk exploration stocks get hit. Nothing to panic about!

HRT dropped over 8% on the Brazilian market yesterday and may drop more today. The level of short sellers has rapidly increased over the last few days. This is obviously a bearish signal, as investors bet that the share price will drop. An optimist might say that the institutional investors have brought the price down to trigger stops and get their hands on other investors' shares at a discount. Maybe, but probably just a regular sell off after a great run since mid January.

Starting from mid April there is a huge number of events which will effect the price of HRT's shares, so I am expecting the volatility to be very high from that point on.

In relation to PCI, there was some big volume over the last couple of days. Perhaps Goldman Sachs are taking a position. Should be interesting to see how it performs today.

Yes, as a poster mentioned above, a pullback was probably overdue after a good run up over the last couple of months. It's impossible to time these things, so just buy and hold until if you have confidence in your picks.

Nothing wrong with a little break before moving back up anyway!

I am a firm believer that the problems in Europe and especially the US are not solved, but with the easy money policy of all the major central banks, we will continue to see the price of oil rise as well as stocks.

For my own records and for anyone who has an interest in HRT, I woud like to post a list of all the key drivers of the share price over the coming months. Taken from a Brazilian forum.

• Approval from the regulators (ANP) to transfer 45% of the Solimoes asset to TNK BP;

• News about the arrival of four rigs in the Solimoes which were ordered from China;

• Results of the drilling of well 170/6. Due mid April. 20km from a Petrobras oil discovery, so some oil is expected.

• Formation test results from well 192/1;

• Commencement of drilling in Namibia by Chariot;

• Formation test results for well 170/6;

• A 1/50 share split on the Brazilian listing, enabling smaller investors to buy in;

• Results of drilling of the extension of well 194 (the first test found condensate, if there is oil in the extension it would be excellent news);

• Farm-out of Namibian assets to a major oil company.

• Possible fracking in Solimoes to improve flow rates;

• Results from Chariot's drilling in Namibia;

• Possible announcement of gas monetization;

• Start to drill in Namibia;

• Update to the certification of estimated barrels of oil in Namibia based on new seismic imaging already received;

• Drilling in Solimoes to move easterly into areas more prone to oil;

• Inclusion in the Ibovespa index.

A lot to get excited about, and all in planned for 2012.

The bleed continues!

It could have been a lot worse too. Big buys came in for HRT at the closing auction in Brazil, and PCI recovered in the last hour after a major drop to 7p.

The euro strengthening against the Real and the Canadian Dollar is compounding the losses, but I'm still up over 10% so no real complaints.

Regarding HRT, the price movements over the next couple of weeks will basically be meaningless, as the major determining factors will be the results of drill 170/06 in the Amazon (mid April) and Chariot's drill in Namibia (early June).

Wow, what a great piece by David McWilliams. I don't follow him too much, but I certainly will be from now on. He really sums it all up so plainly.

Certainly worth a read for any up and coming or seasoned investor.

David McWilliams wrote:

Have you noticed how expensive petrol is these days? It now costs over €100 to fill up an average family car. In Ussher’s Quay the other day, there was a tailback of cars because a petrol station decided to offer a cut-price deal on petrol.

Why is the price of fuel going up?

Lots of media coverage is focusing on the Straits of Hormuz and the sabre-rattling between Iran, America and Israel at a time when Syria burns in the background. We are told that old-fashioned supply problems can explain the price of oil. Then, last Thursday, the main oilman in Saudi Arabia told us to chill out there was loads of the stuff left and there wouldn’t be any supply problems. Of course, this is all playing out against a background where the proponents of ‘peak oil’ argue that the stuff is running out anyway.

But might there be another reason that petrol prices are so high? Is there anything else driving up the price of petrol at the pumps that could be closer to home?

The answer is yes. At the moment, the central banks of the world are responding to this mega-debt crisis and huge de-leveraging everywhere with lower and lower interest rates. Earlier this month, a report from the US Federal Reserve (www.federalreserve.gov) on the flow of funds in the US made for quite shocking reading if you are someone who worries about what central banks all around the world are doing.

The rest is here http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/04/02/america-the-worlds-largest-emerging-market

I also like his quote from Ernest Hemingway.

David McWilliams wrote:

Ernest Hemingway was once asked how did he go bankrupt. The great man thought for a second and then replied: “I went bankrupt in two ways, gradually and then suddenly."