RedC Poll - 25th March (Party Support & Referendum)

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 05:31PM #1

The following RedC poll will feature in tomorrows Sunday Business Post.

FG - 34 (+4%)
SF - 18 (NC)
FF - 16 (-1%)
LAB - 15 (-1%)
IND/OTH - 17% (-2%)

Fine Gael will be very happy with the poll, not much movement otherwise - all within margin of error stuff it seems, bar perhaps the Independents. I am not exactly sure of when the polling was done this week, but I think it was pre-Mahon. There should be another poll in one of the papers tomorrow with the fieldwork done after Mahon reported - it will be interesting to compare.

Just one observation, a bump in the government was extremely likely considering the good publicity received during the St. Patrick's Day events. However it seems Fine Gael are, as usual, capitalising on all the good publicity coming out of government while Labour are failing to have an impact.

There is also a Compact Fiscal Referendum poll in the paper.

Yes - 60%
No - 40%

When you include the 'Don't Knows' you get the following:

Yes - 49 (+5%)
No - 33 (+4%)
Dont Know - 18% (-8%)

GSF · 24-03-2012 05:47PM

The predictions that FG would be as unpopular as FF within 3/6/9/12 months of the general election last year dont seem to be coming true (yet anyway!)

Happy Monday · 24-03-2012 05:52PM

Why are the good people of Ireland refusing to pay the household charge and still appear to be supporting the fiscal compact?

This is something I am a loss to explain.

happyman81 · 24-03-2012 05:53PM

Happy Monday wrote: »

Why are the good people of Ireland refusing to pay the household charge and still appear to be supporting the fiscal compact?

This is something I am a loss to explain.

How are they refusing, exactly? I always pay my bills at the last second.

raymon · 24-03-2012 05:58PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The following RedC poll will feature in tomorrows Sunday Business Post.

FG - 34 (+4%)
SF - 18 (NC)
FF - 16 (-1%)
LAB - 15 (-1%)
IND/OTH - 17% (-2%)

Fine Gael will be very happy with the poll, not much movement otherwise - all within margin of error stuff it seems, bar perhaps the Independents. I am not exactly sure of when the polling was done this week, but I think it was pre-Mahon. There should be another poll in one of the papers tomorrow with the fieldwork done after Mahon reported - it will be interesting to compare.

Just one observation, a bump in the government was extremely likely considering the good publicity received during the St. Patrick's Day events. However it seems Fine Gael are, as usual, capitalising on all the good publicity coming out of government while Labour are failing to have an impact.

There is also a Compact Fiscal Referendum poll in the paper.

Yes - 60%
No - 40%

When you include the 'Don't Knows' you get the following:

Yes - 49 (+5%)
No - 33 (+4%)
Dont Know - 18% (-8%)

FF slide continues , well done FF , another 1% of your core support gone

GSF · 24-03-2012 06:00PM

raymon wrote: »

FF slide continues , well done FF , another 1% of your core support gone

I think its mainly the grim reaper now that is going to further erode FFs core support

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 06:13PM

raymon wrote: »

FF slide continues , well done FF , another 1% of your core support gone

It would not surprise me if FF hit 10 - 12 % in the B&A poll.

happyman81 wrote: »

How are they refusing, exactly? I always pay my bills at the last second.

The anti-household charge movement is doing pretty well it would seem, judging by their rally today. There is trouble on the horizon for Phil Hogan - and it will not look too good when 2,000 - 3,000 people picket the FG Annual Conference next weekend!

happyman81 · 24-03-2012 06:17PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It would not surprise me if FF hit 10 - 12 % in the B&A poll.

The anti-household charge movement is doing pretty well it would seem, judging by their rally today. There is trouble on the horizon for Phil Hogan - and it will not look too good when 2,000 - 3,000 people picket the FG Annual Conference next weekend!

I will reserve judgement until the deadline has passed. Only then will we know the true extent of things.

jupiterjack · 24-03-2012 06:26PM

how are FF so high in poll.

Big Johnson · 24-03-2012 06:27PM

jupiterjack wrote: »

how are FF so high in poll.

It was befOre the Mahon Tribunal. Post Mahon Trbunal poll out at 9

SmilingLurker · 24-03-2012 06:30PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF - 16 (-1%)

What does FF have to do to lose the votes of the 16%? It has destroyed the Irish economy. It bailed out its friends in Anglo Irish Bank. It took the money from developers and left us ghost estates and areas without schools. After years of looking up every tree in north Dublin, knowing this was coming down the line, having ministers saying Bertie was being "wronged" they have eventually *just* decided it needs to get rid of the guilty? The people who campaigned against the tribunal are "shadow" ministers.

The latest wheeze is to say the other parties were up to it too. In fairness, some people in other parties were. I am not a supporter of any party, but at least the other parties expelled members from their parties when they were suspected/caught/could not justify what they had done.

Happy Monday · 24-03-2012 06:36PM

happyman81 wrote: »

How are they refusing, exactly? I always pay my bills at the last second.

All the signs are that a significant majority will not have paid by April.
POINT BLANK REFUSAL.

matthew8 · 24-03-2012 06:50PM

Happy Monday wrote: »

Why are the good people of Ireland refusing to pay the household charge and still appear to be supporting the fiscal compact?

This is something I am a loss to explain.

My parents are staunch FGers, have voted for every EU treaty and are going to pay the charge at the last second. I think it'll blow over.

Pride Fighter · 24-03-2012 07:00PM

Got a link for this OP?

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 07:10PM

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Got a link for this OP?

SBP have put the information up on twitter now, and it was on the 6.1 News.

https://twitter.com/#!/sundaybusiness

Pride Fighter · 24-03-2012 07:43PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

SBP have put the information up on twitter now, and it was on the 6.1 News.

https://twitter.com/#!/sundaybusiness

Cheers for that.

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 08:00PM

Been hearing that FF is 10% in the post Mahon poll, although obviously nothing confirmed yet.

Mr.Micro · 24-03-2012 08:52PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Been hearing that FF is 10% in the post Mahon poll, although obviously nothing confirmed yet.

It will be interesting to see what the numbers are in the coming weeks, if Martin fails to eject Bertie from FF. I do believe that Bertie has the right to appear before group next Friday, if he wishes. He was at the Ard Fheis, so may well turn up. Even if the expulsions take place, the stink and taint of the old guard will still be there in the party.

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 08:54PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what the numbers are in the coming weeks, if Martin fails to eject Bertie from FF. I do believe that Bertie has the right to appear before group next Friday, if he wishes. He was at the Ard Fheis, so may well turn up. Even if the expulsions take place, the stink and taint of the old guard will still be there in the party.

Well one consolation from the poll will be that it effectively means that Bertie will undoubtedly be expelled from the party, the members of the Ard Comhairle realize it just has to be done - and rightly so.

Mr.Micro · 24-03-2012 09:02PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well one consolation from the poll will be that it effectively means that Bertie will undoubtedly be expelled from the party, the members of the Ard Comhairle realize it just has to be done - and rightly so.

It will be a step in the right direction, but cynics will still look at the current leadership of FF. As FF is at such a low place at the minute I cannot understand why it does not select a new leader from the newer TDs and start afresh, at least it would send out a positive message to the supporters of FF. Martin is just thinking of himself, a complete lame duck IMO and he will never get past his association with Ahern, and his own attack on the tribunal.

Dob74 · 24-03-2012 09:59PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well one consolation from the poll will be that it effectively means that Bertie will undoubtedly be expelled from the party, the members of the Ard Comhairle realize it just has to be done - and rightly so.

If Bertie is expelled then Martin may as well resign as well. How can justify sitting at the cabinet table with him for 11 years even after all the damning evidence became public.
Hopefully Martin will stay on, so FF will never recover or can never be disassociated from Bertie's 97 to 08 governments.
Martin is cut from the same cloth as Bertie.

Dob74 · 24-03-2012 10:01PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Been hearing that FF is 10% in the post Mahon poll, although obviously nothing confirmed yet.

Interesting where does the FF vote go?
Could the end up the way of the PD's?
A merger with FG?

Sierra Oscar · 24-03-2012 10:02PM

Dob74 wrote: »

If Bertie is expelled then Martin may as well resign as well. How can justify sitting at the cabinet table with him for 11 years even after all the damning evidence became public.
Hopefully Martin will stay on, so FF will never recover or can never be disassociated from Bertie's 97 to 08 governments.
Martin is cut from the same cloth as Bertie.

The difference being that there is no suggestion that Martin is corrupt in the Mahon Report, which is quite the difference when you compare that to the rejection of Ahern's evidence.

johngalway · 24-03-2012 10:02PM

Dob74 wrote: »

A merger with FG?

That's like volunteering to store toxic waste in your fridge at home.

Mr.Micro · 24-03-2012 10:03PM

Dob74 wrote: »

If Bertie is expelled then Martin may as well resign as well. How can justify sitting at the cabinet table with him for 11 years even after all the damning evidence became public.
Hopefully Martin will stay on, so FF will never recover or can never be disassociated from Bertie's 97 to 08 governments.
Martin is cut from the same cloth as Bertie.

With Ahern having resigned its saves Martin from hypocritically having to expel Bertie. Another FF stunt?

Dob74 · 24-03-2012 10:13PM

johngalway wrote: »

That's like volunteering to store toxic waste in your fridge at home.

True that, FG wouldnt have them.

Dob74 · 24-03-2012 10:17PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

With Ahern having resigned its saves Martin from hypocritically having to expel Bertie. Another FF stunt?

Laughable it's so obvious,
Seriously Martin is such a joke its not funny.
Amazed SF arent higher in the polls time will tell

Sierra Oscar · 25-03-2012 12:52AM

Well it looks like there is no Behaviour & Attitudes Poll afterall - which is very surprising, I thought one paper at least would try and do an immediate post Mahon poll.

bijapos · 25-03-2012 01:43PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well it looks like there is no Behaviour & Attitudes Poll afterall - which is very surprising, I thought one paper at least would try and do an immediate post Mahon poll.

I'ts too early, Mahon cam out on Thursday, so the poll would have to be rushed on Friday, collated on Saturday to give a result. It's too kneejerk.

A poll done from today on would be more accurate, the findings and denials, rebuts etc and their reporting in the media will have had time to sink in, although FF's medium to long term response to Mahon will be more interesting.

I expect a poll during the week, or next weekend at the latest.

dublinman1990 · 25-03-2012 03:46PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Been hearing that FF is 10% in the post Mahon poll, although obviously nothing confirmed yet.

IF FF do lose 10% in the B&A poll; it certainly will be a big surprise for happily very many of us. Although if it come out tonight on the 9 O'Clock News on RTE; it would be even a bigger surprise IMO.

Cookie_Monster · 25-03-2012 10:25PM

GSF wrote: »

The predictions that FG would be as unpopular as FF within 3/6/9/12 months of the general election last year dont seem to be coming true (yet anyway!)

but given the choices I think a lot of people will still say FG rather than saying none, that's the only reason I can see why any of the parties still have any kind of support left.

RedC Poll - 25th March (Party Support & Referendum)

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