NFL Playoffs Thread

UnitedIrishman · 11-01-2012 06:19PM

Also, surprised that none of you even consider this Saints offense to be one of the best, it's not an unsubstantiated claim. You guys are shooting down as if I was making this claim about the Broncos offense. This Saints offense had one of the best offensive seasons of all time.

Undoubtedly one of the best offences, and I do think they'll go all the way, but it might be worth waiting to see if they do that first before labelling them anything. Afterall they're up against a tough defence this weekend and if they get through that they'll face the Packers (who you could argue are just as good as the current Saints) or the Giants in the championship game.

If they do continue to put up massive yardage and scores in the postseason, then they will be considered up there for sure.

Predictions for this weekend -
Saints @ 49ers - Fancy the Saints to win but against a spirited 49ers side, I think it'll be close. Sproles should be such a handy player in this game for the Saints given his dual abilities to take the ball in the backfield or take short passes from Brees against a tough run defence. The line is -3 and I think that's about right. Saints to win 28-26.

Broncos @ Pats - I have a feeling Broncos are going to mirror my own county Mayo in the GAA - one massive victory despite looking like a poor team and then beaten the following week by the old wily masters. I don't think the Broncos will get the beating that the +14 line suggests but there'll be a TD in it at least with the Pats getting a scare before pulling away in the 4th quarter. Pats 27-20 Broncos.

Texans at Ravens - Ravens at home is a real tough venue for the Texans to go. They've got their first playoff victory last week and if they want their second then Yates and Foster are going to have to notch it up another gear again this weekend. Some of the tackling/coverage for the Texans scores last week were shocking and the Ravens won't be as forgiving. It'll be relatively low scoring given how both sides rank on defence so I'll go for Ravens 21-10 Texans.

Giants at Packers - Delighted to see Jennings is back for this tie because there's a niggling bit of doubt in my mind that the Packers will suffer an upset. I don't know why it is but I don't like to see teams coming off a rest week against sides with momentum (even though it's pretty much 50-50 in the last 5 seasons). Giants have improved massively on defence towards the end of the season meanwhile our secondary has been torched by some decent QB's this season - Eli throwing 347 yards last time they met. Praying that being at Lambeau it'll get the Packers firing again. Packers 35-27.

eom 89 · 12-01-2012 07:33PM

These are my picks for the weekend.

Saints -3.5 - Cant see Saints scoring less than 30 points and 49ers scoring over 25. There is a reason David Akers broke FG records this year! Very interesting to see how Saints O line holds up against Patrick Williis and co.

Patriots - 13.5 - If Brady plays any way near well they shud win handy. having said that,any time I go against Denver they cover spread and anytime I go with them they dont!

Ravens -7.5 - Texans beat a poor Bengals team,Ray rice to do more damage than Foster especially with 2 v average qbs on show.

Giants +7.5 - Dont know why,just think everthing is going to well for Green Bay this season similars to Pats a few years ago. Think GB will win but Giants will give them a scare.

Richie90 · 12-01-2012 07:44PM

Gaints +7.5?? Very generous in my opinion considering the Giants improvement on D since they last played the Packers. Do the bookies know something we don't?

Also my picks to win:
49ers - really tight but homefield might just give them the edge.
Patriots - just can't see Denver outscoring NE, particularly in NE.
Ravens - ravens D will be too good for a third string QB in a road playoff game. I know Foster is very good on the ground but Ravens have a very good run D and that means Yates will probably have to throw more which could be a problem for Houston.
Packers - at Lambeau and with that week's rest and getting Jennings back I would expect Packers to win this one. However as I said at the start it will be closer than the 7.5 points given by the bookies

Pherekydes · 12-01-2012 08:01PM

Richie90 wrote: »

Gaints +7.5?? Very generous in my opinion considering the Giants improvement on D since they last played the Packers. Do the bookies know something we don't?

The line is set by the market. The bookies set the line based on the amount of money they receive on each team.

matthew8 · 12-01-2012 10:17PM

I'd take Green Bay on that line. Don't know what everybody sees in the Giants. I don't think the pass rush will be that good, but even if it is Rodgers is mobile enough to avoid making it a huge factor.

Syferus · 13-01-2012 12:06AM

I think it's one of the most interesting divisional line-ups in years, I can see situations where all eight teams can sneak wins.

The Ravens are more than a bit Jekyll and Hyde; I'd hold off on anointing them Superbowl-bound until they take a knee in the AFC championship game.

I've long since stopped trying to predict Broncos games, it could be a blow-out or Tebow could dice 90 yards off the Pats defense for a game winning touchdown.

There's alot of similarities between the 08 Giants and the '11 variant as well as the '07 Patriots and the '11 Packers, especially in how they've match up. The Giants came within inches of ending Green Bay's streak last time and they'll be more than confident of finishing the job after showing good form the last three weeks.

The 49ers have the rush defense to turn the Saints offense into the (slightly) more manageable 2010 variant that also went to the west coast and succumbed to a gritty defense.

Hazys · 13-01-2012 02:45PM

The Patriots are fcuked!! The re-incarnation of Jesus is only getting started.

There's no need to embellish in this story. Facts speak for themselves.

On Jan. 8, 2009, in the BCS Championship Game, then Florida quarterback Tim Tebow wore eye black with the inscription John 3:16, a reference to the Bible passage that says, "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life."

On Jan. 8, 2012, three years to the date that he caused millions of football fans to Google the meaning of John 3:16, Tebow played his first playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And … Tebow threw for 316 yards.

Tebow averaged 31.6 yards per completion, the highest single-game postseason completion average in NFL history.

Ben Roethlisberger's second-quarter interception, which led to a Matt Prater field goal and a 17-6 Broncos lead, came on a third-and-16.

The Steelers finished the game with a time of possession of 31:06.

And at the time Tebow threw the game-winning 80-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas -- the NFL's longest postseason pass in overtime history -- CBS' final quarter-hour overnight ratings were, yes, a 31.6.

adrian522 · 13-01-2012 05:34PM

Swiped this from a 49ers site ( so it's a bit biased, but I think it's interesting none the less)

Points per game

The whole point of an offense is to score points. This is where the 49ers show the biggest deficiency in comparison to the Saints. The Saints averaged just over 34 points per game, the 49ers just over 23, an 11 point differential. Looking at the rankings though and it's rather surprising. The Saints ranked are ranked 2nd the 49ers a surprising 11th. Far from being a terrible offense they're better than half the teams in the league at scoring points.

How do they compare to other playoff teams? The Houston Texans also scored an average of 24.8 points per game, but nobody talks about them like they can't hang with the big boys. The New York Giants scored an average of 24.6 points per game, essentially the same as the 49ers. The Detroit Lions averaged 29.6 points per game and squeaked into the playoffs.

Point differential

The Saints had an average of 13.2 points more than their opponents over the course of the season, which is best in the NFL. The 49ers had a 9.4 points per game differential, which is 4th in the NFL. The key thing about this is that on away games the Saints differential is only 2.8 points per game, and at home the 49ers differential is 16.8 points per game. In other words the Saints win on the road on average by less than a field goal.

Yards per points

How many yards does it take to get those points? In other words, how effective is your offense? Saints average one point every 13.4 yards of offense, while the 49ers average a point every 13.1 yards of offense. Lower is better, because it means you don't have to go as far. The Green Bay Packers are an astonishing 11.6 ypp, while the Rams are an awful 23.5 ypp.

Time of Possession

The time of possession between the two teams is almost the same as well. The Saints controlled the clock 32:03 out of every game, the 49ers controlled the clock 32:00 out of every game. The last three games the Saints have controlled the clock for 32:57 every game and the 49ers for 32:13 for every game. Literally only seconds separate the two team's offenses.

Points per play

This is an important one as well for judging an offense's productivity. The Saints are at an astonishing .494 points per play (ranked 2nd in the NFL), but the 49ers aren't far behind, ranked 8th at .383 points.

Red Zone Offense

The 49ers red zone offense has been much maligned, but I'm here to tell you that it's all lies. The 49ers make 3.0 red zone attempts per game, good enough for 10th in the league. The Saints average 5.4 red zone attempts per game (good enough for best in the NFL). However, the 49ers at home average 4.2 red zone attempts, while the Saints away only average 4.0.

How about converting those attempts? The 49ers average 1.6 conversions per game at home. The Saints average 1.8 conversions per game while away.

Random Scoring Stats

The 49ers are ranked 10th in the league in 2nd half points. They're ranked 13th in the NFL in 4th quarter points.

DVOA

Tossing this in as a random statistic as well. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers as 15th in overall DVOA, which is better than half the league (and not nearly as atrocious as some would have us believe). Here's something that might surprise you--pass offense is ranked 12th in DVOA.

QB Comparisons

Some more good news. Alex Smith is ranked 10th in the league in yards per attempt at 7.07. That's almost as good as Matthew Stafford (7.62), Matt Ryan (7.32), and Ben Roethlisberger (7.95). Nobody ever talks about those QBs as being game managers.

Alex Smith is ranked 9th in the NFL in QB rating. He's thrown fewer interceptions this year than any other QB in the league. He's ranked 17th in the league in TDs, which isn't great but certainly isn't awful. Here's another fun fact: Alex Smith gains 11.5 yards per completion. The high flying Drew Brees gains 11.7 yards per completion. Alex Smith has led 5 game winning drives this season (team was behind when the offense started and the drive ended in the go-ahead score). Drew Brees had 4.

To summarize--the offense isn't nearly as bad as some people would believe. Is it as high flying as the Saints offense? Of course not. Is it awful? No it's not, unless you count being middle of the pack or slightly better as awful. Can the 49ers keep up with the Saints in a shoot out? Yeah, I think they can. Alex Smith's average yards per completion is nearly the same as Drew Brees. Turn Alex loose and let him do his thing and I think the team will be fine.

That's assuming that there's going to be a shootout, which there won't be. The key fact to remember is that the Saints only averaged 27 points a game on the road, and the 49ers have averaged 28 points a game at home.

In other words, the game will come down to the the 4th quarter and I have every confidence in Alex Smith and the rest of the offense that they can win this thing.

BlueCam · 13-01-2012 05:34PM

Guys is there anywhere in Dublin showing the late game tomorrow night? Woolshed is only showing a repeat on Sunday afternoon...

adrian522 · 13-01-2012 05:38PM

I don't know, last year the wololshed used to show the late game but with no booze being served, maybe give them a call?

vetinari · 13-01-2012 05:44PM

These are my picks.

Saints v 49ers - I think this will be an unpset. The Saints are a completely different team on the road. Remember they lost to the Rams!

Broncos v Patriots - I think Denver cover the spread, but the Patriots should still win.

Texans v Ravens - Ravens win this comfortably.

Giants v Packers - Not sure about all the love the Giants are getting off the back of one win over a Falcons team
that have been one and done in the playoffs for 3 years running. Packers to win easily.

matthew8 · 13-01-2012 06:16PM

Get ready for some shocks this weekend. Ravens, Patriots, Saints, Packers. 49ers haven't played in the playoffs for years, and the Saints are clearly a much better side on form.

spiralism · 13-01-2012 07:01PM

Hazys wrote: »

The Patriots are fcuked!! The re-incarnation of Jesus is only getting started.

Posted those in the Broncos superthread. Here's a few more.

Tebow threw 10 completions in the game. 10 books after the book of John (in the Bible) is the book of Tim.
Tebow had 21 pass attempts in the game. There are 21 chapters in the book of John.
Demaryius Thomas was born on the 25th of December, 1987.
The Broncos/Pats rematch in Foxboro will take place 6 years to the day from the divisional round matchup in 06, the one with the Champ Bailey/Ben Watson play.

adrian522 · 13-01-2012 07:13PM

BlueCam wrote: »

Guys is there anywhere in Dublin showing the late game tomorrow night? Woolshed is only showing a repeat on Sunday afternoon...

Well I emailed the woolshed and they are not staying open for it.

I doubt too many places will to be honest. It could 4am by the time it finishes.

adrian522 · 13-01-2012 07:18PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Get ready for some shocks this weekend. Ravens, Patriots, Saints, Packers. 49ers haven't played in the playoffs for years, and the Saints are clearly a much better side on form.

Those are the four favourites

Or are you saying they are going to lose?

matthew8 · 13-01-2012 07:25PM

adrian522 wrote: »

Those are the four favourites

Or are you saying they are going to lose?

Sarcasm.

adrian522 · 13-01-2012 07:28PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Sarcasm.

I see

handsomecake · 13-01-2012 09:00PM

Hazys wrote: »

The Patriots are fcuked!! The re-incarnation of Jesus is only getting started.

all true, and tebow does seem to be jesus reincarnated but one thing to note....................................................tom brady is god.

and tebow will be beaten like a red headed step child

spiralism · 13-01-2012 09:37PM

handsomecake wrote: »

all true, and tebow does seem to be jesus reincarnated but one thing to note....................................................tom brady is god.

and tebow will be beaten like a red headed step child

That's funny. Sounds a lot like what Steelers fans were saying last week. And the Bears a month ago...as well as the Chargers before them...as well as the Jets...and the Raiders. And the Pats before the divisional match against the Jets last year. Anyways, this years Broncos are good at one thing - punishing arrogance and the Pats recent playoff history should ward off any complacency.

Justin10 · 13-01-2012 09:43PM

I think this could be the weekend of the shocks. With Denver, 49ers and The Giants all winning

kmart6 · 13-01-2012 09:44PM

spiralism wrote: »

Anyways, this years Broncos are good at one thing - punishing arrogance and the Pats recent playoff history should ward off any complacency.

Arrogance is the one thing you will never see coming from the Pats, so not exactly going to be an issue this week! They come out every week and praise each team they are playing...hell BB was full of it for the Colts when we were 11-0...finding positives in the seasons Garcon,Wayne,Freeney and Mathis were having!

tallaghtoutlaws · 13-01-2012 09:57PM

spiralism wrote: »

That's funny. Sounds a lot like what Steelers fans were saying last week. And the Bears a month ago...as well as the Chargers before them...as well as the Jets...and the Raiders. And the Pats before the divisional match against the Jets last year. Anyways, this years Broncos are good at one thing - punishing arrogance and the Pats recent playoff history should ward off any complacency.

Sounds like you are confusing the feelings of some fans arrogance and the feelings of the actual team.

Been a Pats fan for over 20 years and this game has an air of caution to it and BB and TB and all of the Pats players know it.

As for the Jets game last year hardly a comparison you can make considering Rex Ryan came off more arrogant than the Pats. But rival games are always going to get an air of arrogance regardless of how important the game is.

tallaghtoutlaws · 13-01-2012 10:14PM

spiralism wrote: »

Pats recent playoff history should ward off any complacency.

And I 100% disagree with this. Complacency didn't lose games for us in recent years. Being out played tactically lost us the games in recent years.

Giants took advantage of our inability to run the ball and took it out of the game and forced us to throw heavy on a Defense that was ripping our O-line assunder.

The Ravens game we were ripped to shreds by Ray Rice and the Ravens D pressured Brady and did what they do best. Lets face it the Ravens are one team where complacency never sets in.

The Jets game as I said above Rex Ryan was doing more of the mouthing enough for both teams in fact but BB changed his game plan and it killed us. And Rival games are the last games you get complacent in considering we were 1-1 with the Jets last year so we knew they had the ability to beat us.

Its funny when people bring up the Pats losses and the word complacency is used as if the Pats were awesomely unbeatable over the last few years or something. Even in 2007 we won games by outscoring our opponents in shoot outs. Since 2007 our defense has been poor also and the glaring problem we have still hasnt been fixed.

handsomecake · 13-01-2012 10:57PM

spiralism wrote: »

That's funny. Sounds a lot like what Steelers fans were saying last week. And the Bears a month ago...as well as the Chargers before them...as well as the Jets...and the Raiders. And the Pats before the divisional match against the Jets last year. Anyways, this years Broncos are good at one thing - punishing arrogance and the Pats recent playoff history should ward off any complacency.

we're not arrogant.we're just comfortable in the knowledge we are better than everyone else.

vote brady and embrace corporate america.

counterlock · 14-01-2012 12:23AM

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Being out played tactically lost us the games in recent years.

Not to mention weak at almost all positions apart from DT, TE, WR and QB. This years team seems to be better rounded.

I think its going to be much tighter than the reg season game, but the loss of Decker is huge for the Broncos. Pats will win but not cover the spread. Another big game for Mayo to step up, Harrison did a reasonable job on Tebow last week.

Patriots and arrogance should not even be used in the same sentence. And the irony is that this mostly comes from Steelers and Jets fans :rolleyes:

matthew8 · 14-01-2012 12:32AM

counterlock wrote: »

Not to mention weak at almost all positions apart from DT, TE, WR and QB. This years team seems to be better rounded.

I think its going to be much tighter than the reg season game, but the loss of Decker is huge for the Broncos. Pats will win but not cover the spread. Another big game for Mayo to step up, Harrison did a reasonable job on Tebow last week.

Patriots and arrogance should not even be used in the same sentence. And the irony is that this mostly comes from Steelers and Jets fans :rolleyes:

Are you saying the Pats have had poor special teams/OL? If so you're mistaken.

counterlock · 14-01-2012 01:12AM

Special teams has always been inconsistent, looks great one week and bad the next. OL was excellent for the middle part of last year, it always seems to go wrong when it matters most

tim_holsters · 14-01-2012 01:18AM

Just got into NFL recently. Friday Night Lights helped. It's weird not having a team though, but nevetheless I'm looking forward to tomorrow night.

clare ny · 14-01-2012 01:20AM

Well firstly my last weeks picks 2-2 were not great but denver win did cover my losses ..
how many people here would like to see a texans broncos AFC championship game , unlikely but would make for a great movie script..
The game for me the weekend is the packer giant game ,it could be a cracker ..
i will be shouting for tebow as found him great to watch since gator days and must say they are now my 2nd team ...But dont expect pats to make the same mistakes as the steelers and timmy will run for more yards than he will throw ,hope i am wrong ..(theres always a first time ).....
Love the 49ers season but brees got too many weapons now ..
so Ravens
Packers
pats
saints

not very daring i know but still but a little on broncos 11-2 to win nice price ...

barbarians · 14-01-2012 02:20AM

My humble opinion on the games:
(Am 3-1 in my predictions from the last round so her goes...)

Saints @ 49ers

The Saints should take this one, even with the formidable 49ers defence. The Saints will definitely score some touchdowns and I don't think the 49ers have the prowess to keep up with the Saints defence.
Saints 27-20 49ers.

Broncos @ Patriots

Tebow just keeps on rolling but there's no way the Broncos will be able to live with Brady,Gronkowski, Welker, Hernandez etc. The Broncos are tough but the Patriots will score touchdowns regardless and the Broncos do better in low-scoring games. Tebow is some man to be fair though. Patriots 34-24 Broncos.

Texans @ Ravens

This will be a defensive slug-fest, like two heavyweight boxers slugging it out until one can't hack it anymore. The Ravens are just a bit more polished than the Texans in my opinion. Texans are also cursed with injuries but should run the Ravens close.
Ravens 16-10 Texans.

Giants @ Packers

This one is very tough to call. The almost perfect Packers against the in-form Giants who are picking up momentum and are ready for the Packers. The Giants pushed the Packers all the way a few weeks ago and there is a perfect storm brewing for the Giants to exploit. I think the Giants' superior defense will be the difference and manage to do enough to stop Rodgers etc. and cause and upset.
Giants 31-27 Packers.

NFL Playoffs Thread

Comments