Food vastly undervalued

I enjoy piss · 02-10-2011 05:28AM #1

For every 1km of urban area it takes approx 50km of agriculture to support it. Heavily urbanised country's of course import most of their food. Foods worth has been translated as money and this is swapped for whatever services they provide.
(hence how charity to africa does not work, its another point.)

This agriculture land allotment can only supply this output based on oil produced fertilizer, without this, the figures would jump to easily 5 times (250km?), it is documented fertilised land can produce roughly 5 times the output of non fertilized)
Oil is nearly out. (no machinery or distribution, it will skyrocket the value we put on food, I won't say, 'what food is worth' as this would give the false illusion that even with high prices, different economic policys would mean everyone could afford food, it won't)

Our island of 6 million has enough fertile land to support it. when the oil runs out and the great famines begin, we will be in a great position, we will need to seal her up, and being and island we can, (occupation of the north would be no contest)

How many do you reckon will die in the great famines? huge urban centres like western europe, east/west coast america, India/china will no doubt suffer at least 50%.

I would hope to get a contingency plan in place for Ireland, what we could do now is

Suspend any further population growth by whatever means
Stock up on Steel, amass concrete supplys for coastline border

Now is a good a time as any to start preparing.

im invisible · 02-10-2011 05:31AM

About 3 fiddy?

Chuck Stone · 02-10-2011 05:36AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

Oil is nearly out.

No it's not.

when the oil runs out and the great famines begin,

No they won't

I predict a smooth transition from the use of oil to the use of alternatives like hydrogen and renewables.

The more expensive oil becomes the more people will begin to explore and invest in alternatives.

If oil was switched off overnight your OP would be correct but it won't so it's not.

I enjoy piss · 02-10-2011 05:44AM

Chuck Stone wrote: »

No it's not.

No they won't

I predict a smooth transition from the use of oil to the use of alternatives like hydrogen and renewables.

The more expensive oil becomes the more people will begin to explore and invest in alternatives.

If oil was switched off overnight your OP would be correct but it won't so it's not.

It will happen so suddenly and unannounced people will literally scratch their heads in a mass confusion.

The oil wont run out like its a tank that will be empty one day like your car, however once it reaches the point of being too expensive to produce fuel it will have these knock on effects

Hydrogen, Thoruim - great, these will be the energy's of the future, but not before these great famines

Chuck Stone · 02-10-2011 05:52AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

It will happen so suddenly and unannounced people will literally scratch their heads in a mass confusion.

No it won't. It will gradually become more expensive which will make alternatives more attractive.

The oil wont run out like its a tank that will be empty one day like your car, however once it reaches the point of being too expensive to produce fuel it will have these knock on effects

We probably already have reached the point of diminishing return. Oil is unlikely to get cheaper so we're already there.

Hydrogen, Thoruim - great, these will be the energy's of the future, but not before these great famines

I predict there won't be famines. As said - the more expensive oil becomes the more money will flow into researching and exploiting alternatives.

Alarmist OP is alarmist.

I enjoy piss · 02-10-2011 05:56AM

Well we both can only predict what outcomes actually happen.

However I base mine on 2 truths.

The world is unsustainably overpopulated and has only reached this level solely on fossil fuel.

This will be corrected.

http://ecology2011tamara2011sp.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/pic1.gif

Chuck Stone · 02-10-2011 06:00AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

The world is unsustainably overpopulated and has only reached this level solely on fossil fuel.

That is a matter of opinion rather than a truth.

This will be corrected.

Corrected implies that there is something wrong. You have yet to provide any evidence that something is wrong.

I think I win.

http://www.gifbin.com/982581

Chuck Stone · 02-10-2011 06:16AM

I bet people probably thought the same about the diminishing return on coal. Coal powered the industrial revolution and yet it has been side-lined as a fuel source.

I reckon that the world will be a healthier and more friendly place when oil becomes too expensive. (middle east wars and oppression for oil etc)

Renewbles and alternatives will be explored increasingly and people will become more energy independent.

I enjoy piss · 02-10-2011 06:27AM

Chuck Stone wrote: »

I reckon that the world will be a healthier and more friendly place when oil becomes too expensive. (middle east wars and oppression for oil etc)

Oh absolutely, the great famines will a revolutionary peroid in history, it will be something to be celebrated. I would never campaign for its prevention.

However my love for this country and its people and our advantageous position here will make me campaign for this. I am drafting up a letter to Enda Kenny and it will include full detailed plans, including food distribution systems.

In my plans however it always comes back to the same issue, mainly Britain,
issues being.

Heavily urbanised
Gateway to Ireland via the North.
Large military.

How to fend off the offensive? I'm open to suggestions, right now all I have is routine execution for any of the old boys up north.

Air and sea I think are the main points to focus on.

Chuck Stone · 02-10-2011 06:33AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

Oh absolutely, the great famines will a revolutionary peroid in history, it will be something to be celebrated. I would never campaign for its prevention.

Listen here. You are predicting great famines.

Why should anyone take anything you say seriously? You know bookies make a living off people like you dontcha?

You cannot predict the future; okay?

Snakeblood · 02-10-2011 09:01AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

Oh absolutely, the great famines will a revolutionary peroid in history, it will be something to be celebrated. I would never campaign for its prevention.

However my love for this country and its people and our advantageous position here will make me campaign for this. I am drafting up a letter to Enda Kenny and it will include full detailed plans, including food distribution systems.

In my plans however it always comes back to the same issue, mainly Britain,
issues being.

Heavily urbanised
Gateway to Ireland via the North.
Large military.

How to fend off the offensive? I'm open to suggestions, right now all I have is routine execution for any of the old boys up north.

Air and sea I think are the main points to focus on.

THEY'LL COME FROM UNDERGROUND YOU FOOL. THE CRUACHAN WILL LEAD THEM HERE.

Turtyturd · 02-10-2011 09:43AM

Why can't I pick 1 or 6 bilion?

4leto · 02-10-2011 10:20AM

Chuck Stone wrote: »

No it won't. It will gradually become more expensive which will make alternatives more attractive.

We probably already have reached the point of diminishing return. Oil is unlikely to get cheaper so we're already there.

I predict there won't be famines. As said - the more expensive oil becomes the more money will flow into researching and exploiting alternatives.

Alarmist OP is alarmist.

You would need your head examined if you think these energy sources could replace oil when the true price shock hits.

It wont be a slow phase out of oil it will be a rapid denial. You make the huge assumption that when there is a shock, the market will be the only factor in deciding who gets the oil. It wont be, it will be a scramble and Ireland at the end of line will not be one of them.

There is barely enough oil now and demand is growing, there are a lot of fields but the world is depending on just one field The saudi Jeddah fields, they are the only ones that can increase production, its a highly secretive part of the world, its a highly secret part of Saudi Arabia but it is rumoured it has reached peak years now and there is no-one to quickly take up the slack.

You could be optimistic and see an orderly transition to alternatives, but there are none. We eat OIL, it is our agriculture, it is not only fertilizer, it is our tractors, harvesters, refrigeration, our electricity, our transport to the consumer. The only reason the Earth has 6 billion people is because of oil. Its our individual team of horses.

But all that is just oil, grain exports from the grain producers and exporters are under pressure and rapidly rising in price. So seeing starvation in the western world is not that far fetched, its getting realer as CHina and Asia demand a bigger supply. Because in truth there isn't enough to go around.

02-10-2011 10:27AM

I enjoy piss wrote: »

For every 1km of urban area it takes approx 50km of agriculture to support it. Heavily urbanised country's of course import most of their food. Foods worth has been translated as money and this is swapped for whatever services they provide.
(hence how charity to africa does not work, its another point.)

This agriculture land allotment can only supply this output based on oil produced fertilizer, without this, the figures would jump to easily 5 times (250km?), it is documented fertilised land can produce roughly 5 times the output of non fertilized)
Oil is nearly out. (no machinery or distribution, it will skyrocket the value we put on food, I won't say, 'what food is worth' as this would give the false illusion that even with high prices, different economic policys would mean everyone could afford food, it won't)

Our island of 6 million has enough fertile land to support it. when the oil runs out and the great famines begin, we will be in a great position, we will need to seal her up, and being and island we can, (occupation of the north would be no contest)

How many do you reckon will die in the great famines? huge urban centres like western europe, east/west coast america, India/china will no doubt suffer at least 50%.

I would hope to get a contingency plan in place for Ireland, what we could do now is
Suspend any further population growth by whatever means

Stock up on Steel, amass concrete supplys for coastline border

Now is a good a time as any to start preparing.

There's about 35-40 years worth of oil left at current consumption rates, it will of course last much longer simply because the decline curve will not be square with 100% consumption at current rates dropping to zero at some date near 2050.

Increased consumption by the BRIC nations will force western countries to be more frugal with their use of oil. This means fewer people living long distances from work, fewer rural housing etc.

The declining supply of oil will eventually eliminate the "1500 mile salad" and other expensive supplies of food, thus leaving more food for the locals in Africa or whereever it comes from. Diets would need to change to increase the food available to people, this would mean more vegetarian and less meat would be consumed. Meat producton is very energy intensive.

I would say that water depletion will be a far greater cause of famine rather than fuel depletion. In many parts of the world, farmers are irrigating land with water drawn from aquifers that took thousands of years to fill and only a few decades to drain.

As to how many will die, I won't speculate; except to say that the Middle East and North Africa will be affected first, followed by China and the Indian Sub Continent.

Banning the export of scrap metal would be a good idea though as the cost of the finished imported goods may be too high in the future, just need to build a new steelworks to use it or get it processed in the UK and returned as steel bars, sheets etc.

Fortress Ireland, isn't going to happen, starving hords from outside Europe will stop in the first place they find food, it's not like the economic migrants who travel to the places with the best benefits. Southern Europe will need the barriers.

Amirani · 02-10-2011 10:34AM

Eventually a stage will be reached where it will be more cost effective to develop different energy sources. A stage will also be reached where GM food becomes a more sensible food source for most of the world. We're not in any danger of running out of food or oil anytime soon though so it should be a while until either scenario happens.

4leto · 02-10-2011 10:37AM

Ireland is a food exporter, but it is also a food importer, it imports the feeds to feed the meat produce we export. So if an oil shock hits how many transition years would we have before we can adjust, a year 2 years 5 years and if oild is denied to us, how would we make that transition. Go back to the Ox or horse, and what would they eat.

You can offer nice alternatives like windpower:pac: or sails but they wont cut it. Oil and its uses is the modern age, there are NO alternatives right now. Just lets suppose Alqueda acquire a nuke and nuke the Jeddah fields. Then thats it, we are there, in absolute oil shock.

4leto · 02-10-2011 10:39AM

niallsparky wrote: »

Eventually a stage will be reached where it will be more cost effective to develop different energy sources. A stage will also be reached where GM food becomes a more sensible food source for most of the world. We're not in any danger of running out of food or oil anytime soon though so it should be a while until either scenario happens.

GM is still reliant on modern method of agriculture which is not only oil fertilisers. Its everything else in modern mechanised high energy demanding agriculture.

Mickeroo · 02-10-2011 10:42AM

Chuck Stone wrote: »

I reckon that the world will be a healthier and more friendly place when oil becomes too expensive. (middle east wars and oppression for oil etc)

THey'll have to burn through all the coal first, which is the most polluting of all the fossil fuels.

Supposedly it would take 20 years to get the proper infrastructure in place to convert to alternative energy sources, this hasn't started happening on the scale it needs to and oil will probably peak in less than 20 years, if it hasn't already. We're also overly reliant on oil in other things apart from energy, Ireland is one of the most oil reliant countries in the world.

I think the OP is a bit too hyperbolic in their predictions but to think the energy companies will switch to renewables once the oil becomes too pricey is idealistic to say the least when there's still a healthy supply of coal and to a lesser extent gas.

02-10-2011 10:52AM

Mickeroo wrote: »

THey'll have to burn through all the coal first, which is the most polluting of all the fossil fuels.

Supposedly it would take 20 years to get the proper infrastructure in place to convert to alternative energy sources, this hasn't started happening on the scale it needs to and oil will probably peak in less than 20 years, if it hasn't already. We're also overly reliant on oil in other things apart from energy, Ireland is one of the most oil reliant countries in the world.

I think the OP is a bit too hyperbolic in their predictions but to think the energy companies will switch to renewables once the oil becomes too pricey is idealistic to say the least when there's still a healthy supply of coal and to a lesser extent gas.

The interconnector to mainland Europe via the UK will ensure that is so for a good many years.

The main issue with renewables is energy storage, solutions are available but are costly to construct.

These "storage solutions" should really be built now while the resources are still relativly cheap rather than wait until there that have to be built regardless of cost.

4leto · 02-10-2011 11:01AM

Coal is great but you can't put it into the tractor.

drunkmonkey · 02-10-2011 11:11AM

4leto wrote: »

Coal is great but you can't put it into the tractor.

But you can put grass in a horse!!!

hardCopy · 02-10-2011 11:18AM

4leto wrote: »

Coal is great but you can't put it into the tractor.

You can put it in a steam tractor

Amirani · 02-10-2011 11:18AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The main issue with renewables is energy storage, solutions are available but are costly to construct.

Partly because it's early in the development stage but more so because no significant economies of scale have been reached. When countries actually decide to en-masse start using renewable then the price will fall greatly.

4leto · 02-10-2011 11:23AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

But you can put grass in a horse!!!

Yeah and then you have to grow more grain to feed the horse.

Horses at the turn of the of the 19th century did cause food inflation. Besides how many horses would you need to replace the versatility and strength of 1 tractor. That's a lot of feed, also utterly impracticable for modern intensive high energy agricultural production.

I suppose they could GM the horse. The reason we can have a high population and big cities is modern agriculture feeds us and along with medicine keeps us healthy. But food is the more important then the 2.

In modern agriculture off course water is important, but oil more so. With cheap energy we have an unlimited supply of water, we just have to take the salt out. But we have a very limited supply of a cheap versatile energy source which at this time is under a very real threat.

So we should be making the adjustment now, and it will be an adjustment to a more impoverished life, but not starvation.

Cuba did it, now I don't know if the world could follow such a model, I doubt it. Humanity never has enough it can only have to much, and the security that goes with having to much.

4leto · 02-10-2011 11:26AM

hardCopy wrote: »

You can put it in a steam tractor

When is the last time you seen a steam tractor and for that matter, do you really think a network supplying farms with coal or turf to be practical. Plus with that much coal pollution going into the air................

Mickeroo · 02-10-2011 11:39AM

4leto wrote: »

Cuba did it, now I don't know if the world could follow such a model, I doubt it. Humanity never has enough it can only have to much, and the security that goes with having to much.

What cuba did is what we should all aspire to.

4leto wrote: »

When is the last time you seen a steam tractor and for that matter, do you really think a network supplying farms with coal or turf to be practical. Plus with that much coal pollution going into the air................

I didn't mean coal for powering vehicles, but it could cover electricity and a silly little thing like pollution isn't going to stop anyone, look at China. It would be a disaster of course, coal is probably the worst energy source there is, it's killed more peope than nuclear ever could.

amacachi · 02-10-2011 11:44AM

4leto wrote: »

You would need your head examined if you think these energy sources could replace oil when the true price shock hits.

It wont be a slow phase out of oil it will be a rapid denial. You make the huge assumption that when there is a shock, the market will be the only factor in deciding who gets the oil. It wont be, it will be a scramble and Ireland at the end of line will not be one of them.

There is barely enough oil now and demand is growing, there are a lot of fields but the world is depending on just one field The saudi Jeddah fields, they are the only ones that can increase production, its a highly secretive part of the world, its a highly secret part of Saudi Arabia but it is rumoured it has reached peak years now and there is no-one to quickly take up the slack.

You could be optimistic and see an orderly transition to alternatives, but there are none. We eat OIL, it is our agriculture, it is not only fertilizer, it is our tractors, harvesters, refrigeration, our electricity, our transport to the consumer. The only reason the Earth has 6 billion people is because of oil. Its our individual team of horses.

But all that is just oil, grain exports from the grain producers and exporters are under pressure and rapidly rising in price. So seeing starvation in the western world is not that far fetched, its getting realer as CHina and Asia demand a bigger supply. Because in truth there isn't enough to go around.

Please. Oil has already gotten expensive enough for shale oil and gas exploration to be economically feasible. There's more of those deposits than has ever been used. There's a long way to go before hippies get their dream of everyone having to live in filth and darkness.

02-10-2011 12:03PM

niallsparky wrote: »

Partly because it's early in the development stage but more so because no significant economies of scale have been reached. When countries actually decide to en-masse start using renewable then the price will fall greatly.

No they won't! Even with economies of scale, the hardware is still expensive to manufacture and assemble.

When countries DO decide to build these things en-masse, the fuel used in their construction will be expensive, not much higher than now as the price is already at a point where it brakes (slows down) the economy!

4leto · 02-10-2011 12:07PM

Mickeroo wrote: »

What cuba did is what we should all aspire to.

I didn't mean coal for powering vehicles, but it could cover electricity and a silly little thing like pollution isn't going to stop anyone, look at China. It would be a disaster of course, coal is probably the worst energy source there is, it's killed more peope than nuclear ever could.

And still does, 100s of thousands or millions a year if you consider respiratory diseases. But vehicle power is the primary thing that is needed in modern agriculture. We could dream and think battery cars are a solution, they aren't, lithium is also becoming very expensive and there is not a lot of it. There are other materials but you also need the extra power to supply all these extra hungry batteries, most the worlds electricity grids are fed by oil burning power stations.

There are other solutions, Hydrogen cell, again there is the scarcity of the battery materials and the rare earths and the electricity needed to get the hydrogen. Again that takes us back to oil. So the future, well who knows, but right now, our only future is oil and that is becoming more and more uncertain.

As for Cuba, I think so to, local sources and local labour and consumption. But for the world that is very utopian. But Britain during the war tried to supply itself with food, every piece of land was given to agricultural production, gardens allotments and even parks.

The scary bit is, it still was not enough, they still needed the grains from North America and exports from us. If Hitler's North Atlantic UBoat campaign succeeded, Britain would have starved, as Germany did toward the End of WW1 as Britains blockade succeeded.

4leto · 02-10-2011 12:12PM

amacachi wrote: »

Please. Oil has already gotten expensive enough for shale oil and gas exploration to be economically feasible. There's more of those deposits than has ever been used. There's a long way to go before hippies get their dream of everyone having to live in filth and darkness.

A long way on the assumption everything goes smoothly and supplies continue, what a lovely hippy world that would be.

I predict by the end of this year there will be another oil panic, not because I am a sooth sayer, its just happens every year now, as they realise. a long time now, how teetering the oil supply is.

Sir Oxman · 02-10-2011 12:19PM

The OP wins purely because of their username.

Food vastly undervalued

How many will die 26 votes

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