Bankers: "can I haz more money plz"

Monty Burnz · 27-09-2011 06:51PM

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Such naivety, but I suppose it's a blessing really. If you think governments have any control over this, then think again.

Patronising rubbish, but I guess it just demonstrates that you have no actual counter-argument. Your views would fit in much better in the Conspiracy Theory forum. You can also take the opportunity to expound your views about Queen Elizabeth and George Bush being lizards there.

Monty Burnz · 27-09-2011 06:56PM

ScumLord wrote: »

I'm sure it would be possible for the top banks/"the man" to orchestrate a collapse for their own benefit. Even if they didn't it is surely possible. There seems to be a big consolidation of assets by banks.

How do you mean, a consolidation of assets? And I'm not sure how you think the collapse of the banking system is in the interests of either the management or the owners of the banks.

ScumLord wrote: »

I don't see how? It would be impossible to forget everything we know and start living that way again.

No physical part of the world has changed, this is simply a database based problem. We haven't ran out of oil, food, water, the climate hasn't changed and people haven't forgotten how to work. This problem was manufactured and the only reason it continues is because it suits a minority for it to continue.

The problem is that society as a whole and fiat currency operate on faith alone. How are you going to do any sort of business without currency? We'd be back to a barter economy. Not too bad if you're a carpenter and want to work for potatoes, but not great if you're not producing physical goods (which is 90% of us).

ScumLord · 27-09-2011 07:21PM

Monty Burnz wrote: »

How do you mean, a consolidation of assets? And I'm not sure how you think the collapse of the banking system is in the interests of either the management or the owners of the banks.

As far as I can see a lot of assets are falling into fewer and fewer hands even if it's not a big conspiracy it's what is effectively happening. Given that this isn't the first recession, we've gone through a good few of varying sizes there has to be groups that are set up to profit from recessions.

The problem is that society as a whole and fiat currency operate on faith alone. How are you going to do any sort of business without currency? We'd be back to a barter economy. Not too bad if you're a carpenter and want to work for potatoes, but not great if you're not producing physical goods (which is 90% of us).

Are 90% of us producing physical goods? I thought manufacturing was dead in Ireland?

There's no need to think of some things as a business and we probably shouldn't as businesses are fragile. Take the banking system for example, if it's so fundamental to our way of life it shouldn't be so fragile. One of the many things that makes it so fragile is that a minority want to use it to generate cash at the expense of others misfortune.

The capitalist system while it's served us well up to now is a very crude system, I don't see why people are so opposed to anything that might undermine it.

Feisar · 27-09-2011 07:30PM

4leto wrote: »

Do you really believe that.

If our economy collapses you will see empty supermarkets and Irish people starving on the streets. There would be no fuel, no power and general chaos. That is how serious an economic collapse would be, think Zimbabwe.

Starve? Seriously? A drill of spuds a pig or two, chickens, veg patch and a bit of poaching deer/trout/eel etc. We'll hardly starve.

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 09:35PM

Phill Ewinn wrote: »

What would you base thee new punt on? We're broke. There's no money in the country. We don't have any gold reserve. Not enough natural resourses to base a currency on either.

We'd still have massive debts and litterally nothing to trade for them. No body would want a worthless punt.

I could be wrong. Seems to me we'd be begging England for sterling. Falling back on the punt would have worked if we hadn't blown everthing we had.

True but I think in the future a currency based upon real units of value makes a lot more sense than the current system.

Absurdum · 27-09-2011 09:48PM

anyone fancy a pint?

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 09:52PM

fontanalis wrote: »

Yeah but people seem to think: punt = no aftermath of property bubble and no debt, euro = aftermath of property bubble and debt so lets go back to the punt and it will all dissappear.

The thing is, the €uro will collapse. I don't see any hope for it. Therefore our only contingency plan is the Punt. And I'm not going to put aside a potential Irish default either because that's probably done the line too. So inevitably, we will be left with both the Punt and less debt due to a default.

Deleted User wrote: »

Who do their multinationals sell to then? We need access to Europe. Corporation tax means nothing compared to a free market. Once we have to pay import/export duties, the game's over. You can't argue that.

And you are of the opinion that I'd like to see Ireland removed from the Common Market? The UK is in the Common Market and still has its own currency. Multinationals would still be drawn to Ireland as, if we left the €uro currency and ECB jurisdiction, we would still have access to the Common Market, or "Access to Europe" as you put it. Due to this, other European countries would not impose import/export duties on Irish goods.

fontanalis wrote: »

So the new punt will magically increase in value?

Not increase in value per se but probably more stable in terms of inflation if a currency of real value was employed.

deirdremf · 27-09-2011 09:58PM

nivekd wrote: »

Is there really a catastrophe around the corner if the Europeans don't agree to print $5 trillion in order to "stabalise the market" or is this yet another example of bankers thinking about christmas around the corner and their big year end bonuses at the expense of tax paying imbeciles?

The media would have us believe that the end of the world is upon us unless the ECB agree to print out trillions of euro to help "restore confidence" in the markets

As far as I am concerned, the more money they pump into the banks, the LESS confidence I have in the markets.
And in the politicians.

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 09:59PM

4leto wrote: »

But there is always unsurety in economics, its more astrology then a science.

Uncertainty exists in all sciences.

4leto · 27-09-2011 10:01PM

Make absolutely no doubt about it, you want to be living in cloud cuckoo land to think a new Punt wont be very inflationary.

There would no options to peg its value, the inter-national money markets would set its value. By demanding it,

Now I ask anyone here, if you were an international banker, would you invest your funds in a new punt.

Also you have to bear in mind, if there is going to be a Euro collapse or a return to the punt, the flight of capital from this country would be enormous. I mean every red cent.

k.p.h · 27-09-2011 10:06PM

4leto wrote: »

A Euro collapse would be unimaginatively bad, so bad, I am thinking it wont be allowed fail,

Who wont allow it to fail..? The governments ..? Or the bankers/traders ..? Who has the most to loose if it fails ..? Who has the most to gain (or can make money off a collapse) ..?
And who has the most influence on what actually happens.. If you join the dots some holes appear in your theory/prediction..

I hope it fails, but the timing is not convenient for me. My dad is just retiring after a hard working life and TBH I really wanted him to have some comfort and security as he deserves it. Personally I want it all to go arse up as I believe the current system is inherently corrupt and cancerous and going to fail anyway.

4leto wrote: »

.
I know this sounds weird but the only time economics can predict the future is after the event happens. Then we all know how it happened.

Thats completely untrue..! People have been predicting this for the past 20+ years :rolleyes: Probably best not to be coming out with sweeping statements unless you know the facts. If your trying to say that in general the people who made money from the system didn't predict this because it suited them you would be correct..

k.p.h · 27-09-2011 10:09PM

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

Uncertainty exists in all sciences.

It's even debatable if economics is a science in my opinion..

deirdremf · 27-09-2011 10:10PM

4leto wrote: »

Then there is worse if the euro fails we would not be the only ones looking toward the IMF.

There would be Spain, Portugal, Italy and even France looking for a dig out. The IMF does not have that money. Then there is the knock on to the loss of these markets to places like Germany, USA and even China..

You seem to think the IMF are some sort of panacea. In fact they ruined the economies of much of the 3rd world in the 70s, 80s and 90s. They are now persona non grata in the 3rd world. So they have come to the 1st world - the bits with financial difficulties - as the only place left they can do business.
Then again, maybe you for the IMF, or your job somehow depends on it. Otherwise I can't understand your "thoughts".

A Euro collapse would be unimaginatively bad, so bad, I am thinking it wont be allowed fail, but they don't seem to be doing anything about the problems it is having at the moment.

A Euro collapse would make 1929 look like a walk in the park. It would be a depression like the world has never seen.

4leto wrote: »

Make absolutely no doubt about it, you want to be living in cloud cuckoo land to think a new Punt wont be very inflationary.

There would no options to peg its value, the inter-national money markets would set its value. By demanding it,

Now I ask anyone here, if you were an international banker, would you invest your funds in a new punt.

Also you have to bear in mind, if there is going to be a Euro collapse or a return to the punt, the flight of capital from this country would be enormous. I mean every red cent.

If there is a Euro collapse, the money won't be leaving Ireland (most of it already has!), but it will be leaving the whole Euro zone; except it has nowhere to go, as the dollar is stiffed already, and there is nowhere else obvious for money to go to. Except commodities, which are already the object of speculative buying, and have been for the last couple of years.

k.p.h · 27-09-2011 10:13PM

ScumLord wrote: »

As far as I can see a lot of assets are falling into fewer and fewer hands even if it's not a big conspiracy it's what is effectively happening. Given that this isn't the first recession, we've gone through a good few of varying sizes there has to be groups that are set up to profit from recessions.

Are 90% of us producing physical goods? I thought manufacturing was dead in Ireland?

There's no need to think of some things as a business and we probably shouldn't as businesses are fragile. Take the banking system for example, if it's so fundamental to our way of life it shouldn't be so fragile. One of the many things that makes it so fragile is that a minority want to use it to generate cash at the expense of others misfortune.

The capitalist system while it's served us well up to now is a very crude system, I don't see why people are so opposed to anything that might undermine it.

This is spot on fair play.

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 10:13PM

4leto wrote: »

Make absolutely no doubt about it, you want to be living in cloud cuckoo land to think a new Punt wont be very inflationary.

There would no options to peg its value, the inter-national money markets would set its value. By demanding it,

Now I ask anyone here, if you were an international banker, would you invest your funds in a new punt.

Also you have to bear in mind, if there is going to be a Euro collapse or a return to the punt, the flight of capital from this country would be enormous. I mean every red cent.

This all really depends. In the end, there will be many difficult years after both the inevitable PIIGS default & €uro collapse. The thing is, how did Ireland grow so much during the 1990's using the Punt which wasn't pegged against the GB£ since the 70's.

4leto · 27-09-2011 10:15PM

k.p.h wrote: »

Who wont allow it to fail..? The governments ..? Or the bankers/traders ..? Who has the most to loose if it fails ..? Who has the most to gain (or can make money off a collapse) ..?
And who has the most influence on what actually happens.. If you join the dots some holes appear in your theory/prediction..

I hope it fails, but the timing is not convenient for me. My dad is just retiring after a hard working life and TBH I really wanted him to have some comfort and security as he deserves it. Personally I want it all to go arse up as I believe the current system is inherently corrupt and cancerous and going to fail anyway.

Thats completely untrue..! People have been predicting this for the past 20+ years :rolleyes: Probably best not to be coming out with sweeping statements unless you know the facts. If your trying to say that in general the people who made money from the system didn't predict this because it suited them you would be correct..

That's rubbish nobody from the best economic schools in the world predicted the 2008 crash, a few did, but they were the mavericks. 55 trillion worth of wealth wiped out and the near collapse of economic system

All those banker who came from Oxbridge and the ivy league bewildered by the shear scale of it.

Also who gains and who loses, the markets are ran on fear and if the Euro collapses all lose. It will be very recessionary.

So less of the sweeping statements:rolleyes:

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 10:18PM

k.p.h wrote: »

It's even debatable if economics is a science in my opinion..

Well yeah, it's more of ideology but I suppose you could make some deep philosophical argument as to whether some sciences are influences by ideology too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15xpd2QhyVQ

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 10:24PM

4leto wrote: »

That's rubbish nobody from the best economic schools in the world predicted the 2008 crash, a few did, but they were the mavericks. 55 trillion worth of wealth wiped out and the near collapse of economic system

All those banker who came from Oxbridge and the ivy league bewildered by the shear scale of it.

Also who gains and who loses, the markets are ran on fear and if the Euro collapses all lose. It will be very recessionary.

So less of the sweeping statements:rolleyes:

It depends on what economics schools of thought you're looking at. The Austrians has some pretty good predictions. They don't seem to be too fond of the Austrians in the Oxbridges and Ivy Leagues though - Keynes is all the rave apparently.

The thing is, the system was so unnecessarily complex anyway meaning that the likelihood of errors was so great that a collapse was just bound to happen.

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 10:27PM

ScumLord wrote: »

The capitalist system while it's served us well up to now is a very crude system, I don't see why people are so opposed to anything that might undermine it.

I'd argue that the monetarist policies that many so-called "capitalist" countries have employed aren't reflective of true capitalism.

k.p.h · 27-09-2011 10:36PM

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

It depends on what economics schools of thought you're looking at. The Austrians has some pretty good predictions. They don't seem to be too found of the Austrians in the Oxbridges and Ivy Leagues though - Keynes is all the rave apparently.

The thing is, the system was so unnecessarily complex anyway meaning that the likelihood of errors was so great that a collapse was just bound to happen.

Austrian Economics .... Nail on the head ... Much more than just a few mavericks 4leto ..

k.p.h · 27-09-2011 10:42PM

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

I'd argue that the monetarist policies that many so-called "capitalist" countries have employed aren't reflective of true capitalism.

I'l classify a group of different factors under one heading and go on to say "corruption" is rife. Thats the main problem.

Zebra3 · 27-09-2011 10:44PM

4leto wrote: »

That's rubbish nobody from the best economic schools in the world predicted the 2008 crash, a few did, but they were the mavericks. 55 trillion worth of wealth wiped out and the near collapse of economic system

All those banker who came from Oxbridge and the ivy league bewildered by the shear scale of it.

Also who gains and who loses, the markets are ran on fear and if the Euro collapses all lose. It will be very recessionary.

So less of the sweeping statements:rolleyes:

There were many with a vested interest who ignored all the signs.

And you can hardly call someone who correctly called the collapse a "maverick". :rolleyes:

Phill Ewinn · 27-09-2011 10:54PM

I'm thinking the ECB could have caught on sooner to what was going on over here. ECB was buying failed property ventures off us for for big money and saying very little about it. Really wasn't until FF came under pressure that they started spilling the beans.

Can't say that the ECB were suckers for FFs cunning and guile. Surely someone knew the wool was being pulled over their eyes.

So far no one from Anglo, the FF party or the ECB has come in front of a judge when clearly one or all of them should.

Zebra3 · 27-09-2011 11:07PM

What do the ECB give a sh*t for?

European banks were making a fortune from the (overpriced) Irish property market and now the Irish taxpayer is making good their losses.

Why intervene when you're on a win-win?

Killer Pigeon · 27-09-2011 11:26PM

k.p.h wrote: »

I'l classify a group of different factors under one heading and go on to say "corruption" is rife. Thats the main problem.

Pin-point what sort of corruption though.

Monty Burnz · 27-09-2011 11:30PM

ScumLord wrote: »

As far as I can see a lot of assets are falling into fewer and fewer hands even if it's not a big conspiracy it's what is effectively happening. Given that this isn't the first recession, we've gone through a good few of varying sizes there has to be groups that are set up to profit from recessions.

How do you mean that assets are falling into fewer hands? It looks to me like people are richer now than at any time in human history. That means that lots of people have assets.

ScumLord wrote: »

Are 90% of us producing physical goods? I thought manufacturing was dead in Ireland?

You misread my post - I was saying that 90% of us don't work in manufacturing. So we agree on this!

ScumLord wrote: »

There's no need to think of some things as a business and we probably shouldn't as businesses are fragile. Take the banking system for example, if it's so fundamental to our way of life it shouldn't be so fragile. One of the many things that makes it so fragile is that a minority want to use it to generate cash at the expense of others misfortune.

I've been studying the 'fragility' of the banking system for the last two years. I can recommend some papers about systemic risk if you are interested. I don't know what you mean by 'generating cash at the expense of others' misfortune', but I can tell you that the two biggest problems in my view are the way that bank executives are paid (big bonuses for short term gains = big risks taken) and the models that the banks used for pricing risk. Black Swan by Nicholas Naseem Taleb is great read in this area.

ScumLord wrote: »

The capitalist system while it's served us well up to now is a very crude system, I don't see why people are so opposed to anything that might undermine it.

Because we've seen the known alternatives, and they were horrific?

28-09-2011 05:14AM

I remember a year ago when everyone on boards.ie sounded like economists.. Now everyone sounds like crazed maniacs.

ScumLord · 28-09-2011 02:56PM

Monty Burnz wrote: »

How do you mean that assets are falling into fewer hands? It looks to me like people are richer now than at any time in human history. That means that lots of people have assets.

Houses, businesses all the things people can't aford any more have all been passed onto banks and investors like larger businesses. Where you had 20 companies doing something 10 have gone under and only the rich survive.
When I hear about our government selling off state assets it feels like we're having everything taken off us because of the errors of the banks. They made the mistakes, we paid for it and we're the ones that will be left with nothing while they may go onto prosper should everything get stable again. But as always with our method of economy it will always be prone to failing again.

Because we've seen the known alternatives, and they were horrific?

Well if you focus on the dictatorships and communist countries it looks horrific but why do we have to run our societies on existing failed systems? There is no book that covers the subject but we have done so much research into human society that we can write a new system.

4leto · 28-09-2011 02:59PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

There were many with a vested interest who ignored all the signs.

And you can hardly call someone who correctly called the collapse a "maverick". :rolleyes:

You could if they were going against the accepted norm at that time.

Some made billions from the collapse but most lost millions and the world lost trillions.

Monty Burnz · 28-09-2011 07:31PM

ScumLord wrote: »

Houses, businesses all the things people can't aford any more have all been passed onto banks and investors like larger businesses. Where you had 20 companies doing something 10 have gone under and only the rich survive.
When I hear about our government selling off state assets it feels like we're having everything taken off us because of the errors of the banks. They made the mistakes, we paid for it and we're the ones that will be left with nothing while they may go onto prosper should everything get stable again. But as always with our method of economy it will always be prone to failing again.

But that's the essence of capitalism. Weak and badly managed businesses go to the wall, well-run businesses survive. Recession is like a forest fire: it clears out the dead wood and creates space for new enterprises - many great companies were founded in the midst of a recession when it becomes easier to get good staff and people who were in comfortable cushy jobs lose them and are forced to come up with something innovative.

If the state is selling assets (and I've no huge problem with them selling non-strategic ones) it's not due to the bust banks, it's due to the Fianna Failure morons guaranteeing to pay off the liabilities of the bust banks. Anything that's repossessed in this country is going from a person who can't or won't repay their debts and returning to the ownership of the taxpayer who owns the banks (except for the sub-prime guys, of course).

ScumLord wrote: »

Well if you focus on the dictatorships and communist countries it looks horrific but why do we have to run our societies on existing failed systems? There is no book that covers the subject but we have done so much research into human society that we can write a new system.

Creating a new system from scratch is the riskiest course of all. Who decides on the system? How do you get every country to adopt it? How do you design a system that is fair but accounts for human frailty? How do we all agree a new system when every country, every culture - even every individual - will want something different?

Bankers: "can I haz more money plz"

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