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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    My hunch about the duration of the wind being the most notable thing about this system, rather than the strength of the wind, seems to be correct. In a major storm we get gusts of well above 90 mph. Actually in a normal Irish winter it's not unusual for Belmullet to gets gusts in the high eighties.

    That's true Nacho - it's been so long I think we've all forgotten what the Atlantic is capable of throwing at us.

    Today was certainly nothing to get excited about, on this part of the coast anyway
    Here in Galway city the strongest winds occurred between 9.00-9.30am with a gust of 56mph and mean speeds of 33mph
    Since then I've been recording gusts of between 33-43mph with an average of 22mph

    As Discodog pointed out earlier, what is most surprising the height of the waves in the Bay - very unimpressive - scroll down to the Bowwaves webcam
    http://www.bowwaves.com/sea_area_forecast.php


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Max of 58km/h recorded earlier. Not surprised it was nothing spectacular
    Data from www.waterfordcityweather.com


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Fionagus wrote: »
    As Discodog pointed out earlier, what is most surprising the height of the waves in the Bay - very unimpressive - scroll down to the Bowwaves webcam
    http://www.bowwaves.com/sea_area_forecast.php

    It is a bit strange especially as it was windy on Saturday & Sunday so with the full moon, tides, SW winds, one would of expected much higher seas.

    But also it appears to have cleared to very few showers so no squalls.
    All in all quite different to a typical Autumn storm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    Discodog wrote: »
    It is a bit strange especially as it was windy on Saturday & Sunday so with the full moon, tides, SW winds, one would of expected much higher seas.

    But also it appears to have cleared to very few showers so no squalls.
    All in all quite different to a typical Autumn storm.

    I was just about to post the same thing. The few showers we had here today we had some high gusts but apart from that it hasn't been as windy as I would have expected.


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Max wind I recorded here so far today in Dundalk, Co.Louth was 73 km/h @ 8:52am. For the last hour the winds are 20 - 40 km/h, 992 hPA, 15.8c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Still very stormy here, strong gusts still, no sign of it dieing down. It will be interesting when high tide comes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭Solair


    It seems Cork City's more or less escaped it entirely. There was a little bit of gusting but nothing very dramatic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I think what made this seem like less of an event than it was is because it has been a predominately dry and partly cloudy day with good spells of sun.

    If you had this wind coupled with heavy rain there would be a different feeling.

    It came as forecasts although gusts along the north coast have been around 8-10 knots short of what some expected. The rest of country got gusts as i would of expected of upto 65mph. I would have perhaps expected to see a 70mph gust in Dublin but that was the tops.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional West Moderators Posts: 16,724 Mod ✭✭✭✭yop


    I think what made this seem like less of an event than it was is because it has been a predominately dry and partly cloudy day with good spells of sun..

    Less of an event in Dublin/the East maybe but we got plenty of rain with the wind down here with zero sunshine all day.

    Will RTE be on the weather again tonite apologising for the East not getting the wind :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Plenty of blowing rain here throughout the day, seems to be falling once it hits the high terrain in central Donegal. Nothing compared to Scotland though where there must be some pretty bad flooding north of Glasgow by now

    As others have said though its more the duration than the strength thats notable, still no sign of it letting up here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I'd say I am getting the strongest winds at the moment here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭John mac


    still blowing a gale here (foxford) we have had loads of rain and mist all day


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭Mayo Exile


    Image around 1.40 PM BST today.

    174134.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭martic


    A video I made of Ex Katia as it passes through Donegal from 8.30AM until 4.30PM. Wind was at it worst between 10 and 12



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Harps wrote: »
    its more the duration than the strength thats notable, still no sign of it letting up here

    Capture-3.jpg

    Exactly, we've had reasonably consistent mean wind speeds since 5am with the strongest gusts between 8.00-9.30am ish

    It's starting to ease a little now but still gusting up to 33mph

    www.galwaycityweather.com


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 614 ✭✭✭Saaron


    Has been windy here in Ballsbridge all day yet nothing more than a strong wind that we get every year. It was even sunny and pretty warm too. Was hoping for a more exciting storm, ah well!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,138 ✭✭✭John mac


    Saaron wrote: »
    Has been windy here in Ballsbridge all day yet nothing more than a strong wind that we get every year. It was even sunny and pretty warm too. Was hoping for a more exciting storm, ah well!

    you need to move to the west coast :D

    Wind easing off here now , (foxford, for those who have new fangled interweb on mobile phones )


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭Ayla


    It's been blustery all day here (south Donegal) although it's hard to tell if it's been anything worse then what we'd get on a typical autumnal day. Some leaves blowing around but no branches. If I hadn't gotten into the excitement of this thread I'd have hardly passed any notice of the day's weather.

    Still quite blustery now & a bit of rain passing through.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭irishdub14


    Well that was a nice day, bit breezy but nice. Was expecting Hurricane Irene scenes....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,522 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    116 km/h gust recorded at Glasgow Airport

    irishdub14 wrote: »
    Well that was a nice day, bit breezy but nice. Was expecting Hurricane Irene scenes....

    I guess you should have looked at the forecasts then.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    I knew when I saw the crows back early this morning that it wasn't going to be anything special, but I said nothing hoping the crows had got it all wrong... but no the sneaky bastards were right on the button. :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,945 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    More Rover reports (second dogwalk)

    The Sky is odd - really angry looking low cloud but no precip. It still feels very warm, almost balmy even though the wind is WSW. The wind had died down a lot but their are still 30 mph gusts lurking in there.

    The sea is not very high but the tide is very odd. It is trying to go out but it's being pushed back by the wind & swell. So a wave rolls up the beach & appears to almost hang there before slowly rolling back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I'm surprised at the duration of strong winds here. Trees are still shaking away and there is some very strong gusts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    so is the hurrican gone now..because I hardly noticed any difference to the weather in dublin today. Blustery and strong winds at times and a few light showers but mostly sunny and warm today..dissapointing hurricane :rolleyes: oh and ive been hearing that theres is another hurricane 'maria' coming and thats is supposed to be really strong or something is there another hurrican actually coming and how strong will it be? I'd love a big powerful storm:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    snow ghost wrote: »
    . but no the sneaky bastards were right on the button. :mad:

    I know, woken at 3am with a huge gust that was confirmed by my WS, went out the back about 10am and was surrounded by Starlings looking for food!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Tropical storm Katia slams into Ireland, Britain

    Associated Press, on my twitter feed.
    DUBLIN (AP) -- Tropical Storm Katia shut down roads and power and led to one death Monday in Ireland and Britain, where residents braced for the strongest wind gusts in 15 years.
    Forecasters in both countries said Monday's gusts topped 80 mph (125 kph) as the storm - previously a hurricane as it roared across the Atlantic - made driving, shipfaring and even walking dangerous in broad swathes of Ireland, Scotland and northern England.
    In northeast England's County Durham, a driver died after a tree fell on a car on the highway, Durham police said. Officers later warned all drivers to be careful driving through the high winds.

    Full story at http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_TROPICAL_STORM?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-09-12-16-12-44

    Someone should have told AP we don't get tropical storms in Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,215 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Much calmer here now in Dublin 3, nowhere near as bad as earlier, good few downed trees about.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 46,429 ✭✭✭✭muffler


    What do we talk about next? :confused: :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    muffler wrote: »
    What do we talk about next? :confused: :pac:
    I know I feel so deflated, I wasn't expecting Katiageddon - experience has taught me otherwise, but even so you can't help but wish for a bit more excitement from an impending weather system !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Anyone living near Shannon Airport?? Met Reports at 2200 show 24mm of rain for the hour.(edit,i looked at it around 2230 and it said 24.0mm's,has now been amended)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Gusts of 50 Knots in Malin on latest reports.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,241 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Min wrote: »
    Tropical storm Katia slams into Ireland, Britain

    Associated Press, on my twitter feed.



    Full story at http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_TROPICAL_STORM?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-09-12-16-12-44

    Someone should have told AP we don't get tropical storms in Ireland.

    No, but to all intents and pruposes it was one.

    It has mean windspeed above 39mph, and it a cyclone. Only for the fact that it is not in the tropics, it would be officially called a tropical storm. As is, it's a post-tropical or extra-tropical depresson that is no longer named, but that was, at one stage, named Katia. It's the same system, therefore I see no reason why it can;t be still referred to as same.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,522 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    sdeire wrote: »
    No, but to all intents and pruposes it was one.

    It has mean windspeed above 39mph, and it a cyclone. Only for the fact that it is not in the tropics, it would be officially called a tropical storm. As is, it's a post-tropical or extra-tropical depresson that is no longer named, but that was, at one stage, named Katia. It's the same system, therefore I see no reason why it can;t be still referred to as same.

    The fact that it is not warm-core seals it's fate for me personally. Ex-(former name of system) seems the best short hand description imo.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Post-storm thoughts ...

    Good thing that the storm did not reach sub-960 mb central pressures as some models had depicted around 48-72h, on the track it followed, that would have increased wind gusts by 10 knots or more. I say good thing from the public perspective, not the forum perspective.

    After all the slight twists and turns in the models, the track and the timing were close to the 5d consensus and every consensus thereafter. So on the whole the models had a good handle on the storm.

    There was not very much development of the frontal zone late overnight, this was probably due to the extremely stable parameters of the warm sector and the limited mixing before the zone moved east away from Ireland. Many comments on here pointed to how the westerly flow felt mild, even though temperatures had fallen off 3-5 degrees from highs reached around 0300h, but with autumn storms (as some commented) you get a more unstable polar air stream blasting around the centre and this is generally much colder than the ocean. In this case, the "cold" air was from a westerly origin and it was about the same temperature as the ocean, so it remained rather stable too.

    Some of the media hype on this storm was borderline unfathomable, especially the UK newspaper story about a storm as bad as 1987. Even on the tip of Malin Head or near the summit of Snowdon in Wales, this storm was nowhere near as windy as the squall line of the October 1987 storm which produced recorded gusts between 90 and 110 knots, as well as probable tornadic streaks. I thought the general idea in this and the chat thread, saying that the storm was about midway between the May and last November (Carmen) storms, was about right (from the numbers, obviously I'm not there, my maximum gust today was about 20 knots !!).

    Thanks to all who gave valuable insights into forecast potential as we approached this storm, I would not want to start naming people because the list is extensive and I'd forget one or two.

    Now it's on to the next big weather story ... which does not appear too imminent. It seems that if May and September can cough up fairly impressive windstorms, we should be in for some special events in the prime storm season still ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭eilejh


    Lots of brilliance on this Board


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,283 ✭✭✭Deedsie


    From the daily forecast thread... SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

    Is there any scope for that weather to change? I have a 90 k cycle Saturday heading up to Galway from North Tipp. With the weather like that it will be very tough. Any chance of a change? What time will the winds reach 30-50 on Saturday? The cycle is at 9am


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    sdeire wrote: »
    No, but to all intents and pruposes it was one.

    It has mean windspeed above 39mph, and it a cyclone. Only for the fact that it is not in the tropics, it would be officially called a tropical storm. As is, it's a post-tropical or extra-tropical depresson that is no longer named, but that was, at one stage, named Katia. It's the same system, therefore I see no reason why it can;t be still referred to as same.

    If that storm were in the tropics it wouldn't be called a tropical storm as it's totally different structurally. Actually, you wouldn't get it in the tropics, the same way we don't get tropical storms - as per definition - in these latitudes. Katia WAS a tropical storm and hurricane, but had transitioned into an extra-tropical storm - with associated fronts and windfield - by the time it reached us.

    Don't go to the newspapers for educational purposes.....
    Tropical Storm:A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
    Tropical Cyclone:A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre



    Now it's on to the next big weather story ... which does not appear too imminent. It seems that if May and September can cough up fairly impressive windstorms, we should be in for some special events in the prime storm season still ahead.

    I get the feeling some of us are not going to like your winter forecast. Still if we can't get a sustained freeze, a major storm or two would be a good compromise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    hurricane_names.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭Poochie05


    I found this thread extremely informative, thanks to the knowledgeable contributors and I too was a little disappointed with the 'event' despite knowing the forecasts weren't predicting anything too dramatic and also being tucked away in the SE. I came across some interesting historical data in this paper on the impact of hurricanes on the weather of Western Europe which might interest some of you:
    http://www.intechopen.com/source/pdfs/15321/InTech-The_impact_of_hurricanes_on_the_weather_of_western_europe.pdf

    The paper refers to the highest recorded value of 182km/hr from Debbie in 1961 at Malin Head and Debbie also generated the highest values for sustained winds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Poochie05 wrote: »
    I found this thread extremely informative, thanks to the knowledgeable contributors. I also came across some interesting historical data in this paper whcih might interest some of you:
    http://www.intechopen.com/source/pdfs/15321/InTech-The_impact_of_hurricanes_on_the_weather_of_western_europe.pdf

    The paper refers to the highest recorded value of 182km/hr from Debbie in 1961 at Malin Head and Debbie also generated the highest values for sustained winds.

    Its says debbie was still a hurricane when it reached here I thought we dont get Hurricanes here like the bbc weather mentioned a few days ago:confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭Poochie05


    It refers to them all as hurricanes (with the exception of 2tropical storms) but it also says that:
    "It must be noted that at this stage they are no longer true hurricanes as they do not have the high wind speeds and low barometric pressures associated with true hurricanes."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Poochie05 wrote: »
    It refers to them all as hurricanes (with the exception of 2tropical storms) but it also says that:
    "It must be noted that at this stage they are no longer true hurricanes as they do not have the high wind speeds and low barometric pressures associated with true hurricanes."

    That's a very weak comment coming from someone in his position. It would appear from this that he classifies a storm to be a hurricane based purely on windspeed and pressure, when in fact there are other more important factors to be considered, such as a warm core, non-frontal, a tight wind field around a central eye, the presence of upper outflow, etc. Pretty much every year we see at least north Atlantic depression with central pressures as low as 940 hPa and hurricane force winds, so based on these two factors would he classify them as hurricanes?

    The fact that he doesn't mention the other factors is a big flaw in his article. Having said that, it is a very informative and useful piece.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭Poochie05


    Su Campu wrote: »
    That's a very weak comment coming from someone in his position. It would appear from this that he classifies a storm to be a hurricane based purely on windspeed and pressure, when in fact there are other more important factors to be considered, such as a warm core, non-frontal, a tight wind field around a central eye, the presence of upper outflow, etc. Pretty much every year we see at least north Atlantic depression with central pressures as low as 940 hPa and hurricane force winds, so based on these two factors would he classify them as hurricanes? ...

    I wouldn't know enough about the technical stuff to have picked up on that, so I bow to your superior knowledge. I just thought it was a useful source of historical wind speed data for comparison with those in the last few days. :o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Mentioned way back in this thread that Debbie was classified as a hurricane quite far into the approach to Ireland back in 1961, but they had a different understanding of extratropical transition at that time. The NHC historical map shows Debbie as a hurricane to the north edge of the map in Donegal Bay, where it was situated at 12z 16 Sep 1961 after brushing land moving NNE across Westport.

    As we have no satellite imagery from that far back, we can't be sure, but with the origins closer to the Azores, I would imagine Debbie had completed extratropical transition by about 49-50 N to the southwest of Valentia. It's all academic anyway because the hurricane force winds were still present, but looking at maps of recorded wind speeds, these strongest winds were further from the track than you would expect with an intact hurricane.

    Anyway, it will probably be a long, long time until there's another Debbie, just getting a strong storm of any kind on that particular track is unusual. The Oct 1987 storm followed a somewhat similar path about 5 deg further east but then it was never a tropical cyclone.

    I would suggest that someone with access to historical weather records start up a 50th anniversary thread since that's rapidly approaching (Friday).


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    By the way, found this thread posted a couple of years ago.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055661187

    Map from newspaper report shows the track a little west of the NHC track with no landfall although very close to Belmullet. Strongest wind axis from about Shannon to Malin Head.

    Central pressure on the map was nothing extreme, about 964 mbs but presumably it was lower at 06z when west of Valentia.

    Wetterzentrale seem to have withdrawn their historical weather maps for free viewing, perhaps we should take up a collection and buy the DVD.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu



    Wetterzentrale seem to have withdrawn their historical weather maps for free viewing, perhaps we should take up a collection and buy the DVD.

    Seems to be working for me here MT, though there's nothing too spectacular shown for Debbie http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsrea2eur.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, SC, I'll have to go back into wetterzentrale and see what I did wrong earlier, the menu had changed from the last time I visited for historical maps. They've added maps for every 12 hours now which is great. You have to wonder how accurate they are comparing the 12z map with the newspaper map, as you say, central pressure on the wetterzentrale map is hardly below 980 mbs. But the upper air map tells the story, that jet stream depiction is a raging southwesterly.

    We don't seem to get these full-latitude troughs as often in recent years as "back in the day." I've noticed this in North America also, storms like the 1938 hurricane or Hazel (1954), the superstorm of Jan 26, 1978, come to mind as examples of storms that were captured in full-latitude troughs and drawn NNE or even due north. That's the killer direction for windstorms, it seems, because of the rapid energy transfer that can develop.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,522 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Thanks, SC, I'll have to go back into wetterzentrale and see what I did wrong earlier, the menu had changed from the last time I visited for historical maps. They've added maps for every 12 hours now which is great. You have to wonder how accurate they are comparing the 12z map with the newspaper map, as you say, central pressure on the wetterzentrale map is hardly below 980 mbs. But the upper air map tells the story, that jet stream depiction is a raging southwesterly.

    We don't seem to get these full-latitude troughs as often in recent years as "back in the day." I've noticed this in North America also, storms like the 1938 hurricane or Hazel (1954), the superstorm of Jan 26, 1978, come to mind as examples of storms that were captured in full-latitude troughs and drawn NNE or even due north. That's the killer direction for windstorms, it seems, because of the rapid energy transfer that can develop.

    Maybe this just means we are way over due such an episode on either side of the Atlantic :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    By the way, found this thread posted a couple of years ago.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055661187

    Map from newspaper report shows the track a little west of the NHC track with no landfall although very close to Belmullet. Strongest wind axis from about Shannon to Malin Head.

    Central pressure on the map was nothing extreme, about 964 mbs but presumably it was lower at 06z when west of Valentia.

    Wetterzentrale seem to have withdrawn their historical weather maps for free viewing, perhaps we should take up a collection and buy the DVD.

    What I dont understand is how the pressure is not that low really but yet the winds were so strong is it different because these storms originated in tropics:confused: also why is there not that many isobars on that chart if it was so windy?


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