Morgan Kelly on property: "we are very far from the bottom"

Killer Pigeon · 08-08-2011 12:34AM

~26 minutes until the end of the world.

skelliser · 08-08-2011 12:34AM

note the crazy salaries being paid in NAMA.

Anyone with any intelligence know from the start that NAMA was and is a scam.
But of course the naysayers were told to shut up and pull on the green jersey.

the vast majority as seen here in after hours couldn't give a toss either. They rather turn a blind eye or try and out do each other with witty replies.

Jesus Wept · 08-08-2011 12:36AM

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

~26 minutes until the end of the world.

What market opens, Japan?
What is it about this drop in the exchanges that is capturing the imaginations of boards.ie members? Haven't there been bigger one day/one week drops over the past few years?

Killer Pigeon · 08-08-2011 12:38AM

The-Rigger wrote: »

What is it about this drop in the exchanges that is capturing the imaginations of boards.ie members?

Insanity, I call it.

Senna · 08-08-2011 12:41AM

Unfortunately the rent/ratio for working out prices does not work here. We have a huge supply of unoccupied houses 350k. If even some of these house were allowed onto the market and let the market dictate the price, house prices and rents would fall massively.
We have NAMA openly admitting that they cant allow large scales property sales as it would reduce house prices by half over night, what they are basically saying is "we cannot allow an open market were people can buy a property at its real price, instead we'll dip feed houses onto the market, dragging out the downward drop in house prices for 5/10/15 years".

Sear brilliance.

drunkmonkey · 08-08-2011 12:49AM

desertcircus wrote: »

There's a couple of problems with this. First is fallow periods: it's fairly normal to assume ten months' occupancy per year. Second is actual rental prices: there's no two-bed in Temple Bar asking 1200 a month on Daft. In fact, the average seems to be 1050. So ten months' rent of 1050 totals 10,500 a year. Multiply that by fifteen years, and the total you come to is €157,500, almost seventy thousand euro below the asking price being asked for the one two-bed apartment in Temple Bar for sale on Daft.

That's on the assumption that rents will remain the same, and that the mooted huge decrease in rent allowance will have no negative impact on a market where 50% of tenants are on that selfsame rent allowance. In other words, even before the price floor for rental property is reduced by maybe 20-30%, the asking price is almost 150% of the realistic price.

Yea I kinda new it wasn't a great example. But this is after hours and it's late.

The house I rent probably gives a better view.

3 bedroom semi, bought as investment property by a pensioner for €220,000 just over 3 years ago.
Currently renting it for €550pm, giving it a value of €82,500

No houses for sale currently in that estate as nobody will sell and nobody is buying, what is happening though is the council are snapping up anything that comes up for rent, for council houses and affordable housing, there given homeowners 10 year leases at a little over the going rental rate.
This is causing 2 problems, one it's keeping rents artificially high and secondly it's preventing property coming onto the market as most propel will take the 10 years guaranteed rent and make up the shortfall themselves.

The government are up to their necks in this house game, through councils, Nama and departments I probably don't even know about.
I can also see debt forgiveness happening as well. There going to drag this out for as long as possible in the hope that it all kicks off again. When in realty this is the last thing we need as it's only
holding off the end game not preventing it.

concur4u? · 08-08-2011 12:49AM

ok im in need of a basic accountancy/economics explaination pls

so the imf are putting up a 1/4 of the bailout
the ecb are putting up 3/4 of the bailout
we will be in need of this loan for the next 3 to 4 years just to keep the goverment in pocket for the everyday running costs of the nation

the ecb is basically the germans and the french looking to keep the euro currency intact and make some in interest while their at it?

whats in this for the imf apart from the interest theyll make off the loan?

who are the imf? were do they get their money to lend broken countries?

also who exactly do the yanks owe trillions to ?is it the federal resevere ?

also whats the deal with the chinise who or do they owe?

can someone connect the dots to show me the big picture here pls

dev100 · 08-08-2011 12:58AM

concur4u? wrote: »

ok im in need of a basic accountancy/economics explaination pls

so the imf are putting up a 1/4 of the bailout
the ecb are putting up 3/4 of the bailout
we will be in need of this loan for the next 3 to 4 years just to keep the goverment in pocket for the everyday running costs of the nation

the ecb is basically the germans and the french looking to keep the euro currency intact and make some in interest while their at it?

whats in this for the imf apart from the interest theyll make off the loan?

who are the imf? were do they get their money to lend broken countries?

also who exactly do the yanks owe trillions to ?is it the federal resevere ?

also whats the deal with the chinise who or do they owe?

can someone connect the dots to show me the big picture here pls

The americans owe the chinese the money

2ygb4cmqetsjhx · 08-08-2011 01:09AM

The Americans owe the Chinese trillions? That explains why they are so fat. How many chop sueys can I buy for 14 trillion american?

Zebra3 · 08-08-2011 01:17AM

concur4u? wrote: »

ok im in need of a basic accountancy/economics explaination pls

so the imf are putting up a 1/4 of the bailout
the ecb are putting up 3/4 of the bailout

There was no bailout.

There was loan sharking.

skelliser · 08-08-2011 01:20AM

The IMF are basically the lender of last resort.
They are proped up/funded by the big economies of the world.
Its hq is in new york and its usually run by a european.

If a country cant buy debt from the markets, the IMF will step in and offer to fund the country for a number of years at x amount interest.
In return they are in charge of the books and thus countries must introduce austerity to keep getting money.

In our situation and contrary to the medias opinion the IMF have actually been our friends! giving us a much lower interest rate, at one stage suggesting a rollover of debt; vetoed by Obama's Genthner in the FED and generally hinting/suggesting to our european "friends" that there should be debt forgiveness.
All of which was ignored.

policarp · 08-08-2011 01:25AM

Dangerous Man wrote: »

I sometimes wonder why Ireland isn't on fire.

Because we're piss artists and we'd have no trouble putting it out. . .

naughto · 08-08-2011 01:29AM

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

~26 minutes until the end of the world.

i see your still here

concur4u? · 08-08-2011 01:35AM

skelliser wrote: »
The IMF are basically the lender of last resort.
They are proped up/funded by the big economies of the world.
Its hq is in new york and its usually run by a european.
If a country cant buy debt from the markets,
the IMF will step in and offer to fund the country for a number of years at x amount interest.
In return they are in charge of the books and thus countries must introduce austerity to keep getting money.

In our situation and contrary to the medias opinion the IMF have actually been our friends! giving us a much lower interest rate, at one stage suggesting a rollover of debt; vetoed by Obama's Genthner in the FED and generally hinting/suggesting to our european "friends" that there should be debt forgiveness.
All of which was ignored.

who are the markets? excuse my ignorance but iv had my head in the sand the last few years

Killer Pigeon · 08-08-2011 01:35AM

naughto wrote: »

i see your still here

Dude, do you not see the fire and brimstone outside?

sock puppet · 08-08-2011 01:38AM

Myla Nutty Cheekbone wrote: »

The Americans owe the Chinese trillions? That explains why they are so fat. How many chop sueys can I buy for 14 trillion american?

Not quite. They owe about a tenth of that.

concur4u? wrote: »

who are the markets? excuse my ignorance but iv had my head in the sand the last few years

Banks, pensions funds, other governments, local councils etc. Anyone who invests their money.

7sr2z3fely84g5 · 08-08-2011 01:39AM

skelliser wrote: »

note the crazy salaries being paid in NAMA.

Anyone with any intelligence know from the start that NAMA was and is a scam.
But of course the naysayers were told to shut up and pull on the green jersey.

Agree the allowance of been able to transfer properties to their spouses and been able to move abroad and be practically untouched and been paid for their corporation was absolutely disgusting.

They should had left the banks henchmen take care of them instead.

And i may add you will be all paying for new uniforms for the banks you own-
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/aib-offers-new-uniforms-to-staff-
bill-could-reach-16m-515460.html

it is reported the AIB plans to spend up to €1.6m kitting out its staff in new uniforms.

According to the Irish Examiner, the bank, which is owned by the state, sent a memo to employees saying anyone who wants a new uniform can have one.

It is estimated that there could be as many as 8,000 staff throughout AIB's retail division — which includes branches and business centres in Ireland, the North and Britain, as well as the company's head office.

Based on these numbers, it is estimated that replacing all the uniforms could cost as much as €1.6m.

naughto · 08-08-2011 01:39AM

na sure id have to open the curtains to look out and iam afread if the dark:eek::eek:

skelliser · 08-08-2011 01:44AM

concur4u? wrote: »

who are the markets? excuse my ignorance but iv had my head in the sand the last few years

International Bond markets.
Its were traders, companies and countries buy and sell debt.

If you remember the merchant of venice - my word is my bond!!
A bond is just a fancy word for a promise and of course interest our in the case of bonds they call it yield.
Bonds come in different forms and over different time scales, usually 3, 5 and 10 year bonds.

The market is in a constant state of flux, with analysts and traders looking to buy and sell debt and make a profit.
In our case the markets saw that ireland was basically bankrupt cause we built a nice ponzai scheme of houses and thus wasnt a good investment, thus our yields grew to over 10%. Which means the interest payments alone would mean we are in a debt spiral ie. no way of actually paying the principle back. The debt would just grow and grow.

At the moment the markets and scared ****less and everyone is running for cover. Spainish and Italian yields have hence grown higher.
There is no way the IMF our the ESF can bail them out cause they are simply too big.

which brings us to today.

Also The markets are usually ahead of our idiot politicians by about 6 months. From the politicians point of view who wants to be the leader who brought in the austerity, the IMF and thus pay a hefty price at the ballot box- see Fianna Fails result.

Zebra3 · 08-08-2011 01:49AM

skelliser wrote: »

In our situation and contrary to the medias opinion the IMF have actually been our friends!

Wtf???? :rolleyes:

The IMF along with other outside interests instructed the unhung traitors of FF/Greens (backed by FG) to move private debt onto the taxpayer.

:mad:

In return the Irish taxpayer gets raped.

concur4u? · 08-08-2011 01:51AM

skelliser wrote: »

concur4u? wrote: »

International Bond markets.
Its were traders, companies and countries buy and sell debt.

If you remember the merchant of venice - my word is my bond!!
A bond is just a fancy word for a promise and of course interest our in the case of bonds they call it yield.
Bonds come in different forms and over different time scales, usually 3, 5 and 10 year bonds.

The market is in a constant state of flux, with analysts and traders looking to buy and sell debt and make a profit.
In our case the markets saw that ireland was basically bankrupt cause we built a nice ponzai scheme of houses and thus wasnt a good investment, thus our yields grew to over 10%. Which means the interest payments alone would mean we are in a debt spiral ie. no way of actually paying the principle back. The debt would just grow and grow.

At the moment the markets and scared ****less and everyone is running for cover. Spainish and Italian yields have hence grown higher.
There is no way the IMF our the ESF can bail them out cause they are simply too big.

ok so far, whos the esf? and is their anywere ie china/arabs we could go to if as i understand the imf may as well run the bugdets here for the next few years

Voodoomelon · 08-08-2011 01:58AM

I went in for a mortgage over the last few months, a mortgage totaling x3 times my salary. Bank said no. We are absolutely f**ked.

skelliser · 08-08-2011 02:17AM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Wtf???? :rolleyes:

The IMF along with other outside interests instructed the unhung traitors of FF/Greens (backed by FG) to move private debt onto the taxpayer.

:mad:

In return the Irish taxpayer gets raped.

incorrect.

Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan dreamt that genius idea up all on there own on the night of the 29th of september 2008.
They included Anglo Irish bank in the gaurantee saying that it was of "Systemic importance" even tho this bank never hand tellers, atms or lent to "ordinary" citizens.
It did however lend to alot of Fianna Fails friends, the lads in the Galway Tent

Nothing to do with the IMF.

The ESF is the european stability fund, basically an IMF for euro zone countries.

In times of recession the usual port of call is to buy Gold or other precious metals as they usually hold there value.
Since this crisis gold has reached record levels. Hence why all those cash for gold shops appearing everywhere.

skelliser · 08-08-2011 02:26AM

China is abit different. A communist country which is outwardly capitalist. bit of a contradiction.
Like their citizens they control there own currency. So they can do what they like.

Plus must of the worlds goods are made in china, cheap labour, no unions etc.

There has been suggestions that we jump into bed with the chinese and get loads of investment from them. But because our politicians love europe and countless treaties over the years we are pigeon holed in what we can and cant do.

concur4u? · 08-08-2011 02:38AM

skelliser wrote: »

China is abit different. A communist country which is outwardly capitalist. bit of a contradiction.
Like their citizens they control there own currency. So they can do what they like.

Plus must of the worlds goods are made in china, cheap labour, no unions etc.

There has been suggestions that we jump into bed with the chinese and get loads of investment from them. But because our politicians love europe and countless treaties over the years we are pigeon holed in what we can and cant do.

ok im geting my head around this now were between a rock and a hard place ill be keeping an informed eye on things over the next few days but say we did try and seek private investment from china how would that effect our eu standing with the rest of the bailout/loan ie cut out the imf in favour of chinise investment without having them run our budgt/taxes etc

skelliser · 08-08-2011 02:47AM

our "friends" in europe wouldnt be very happy!

In return for funds/investment what would we give the chineses?!!

France for example has always hated our corp tax rate. They have pressurized us to increase in during and after the bailout. Even tho our low tax rate would help investment and thus help the economy grow and help us pay down the debt and thus help europe as a whole.

So much for "friends"

This crisis shows us one thing, a currency built by politicians based on solidarity and unity and not on sound economics was always doomed.
How can you have 17 individual countries budgets for a single currency?!

concur4u? · 08-08-2011 03:05AM

how does sterling/great britian fit in here? like were awaiting the outcome of the dollar the euro and the yuan, im right in saying britian owes the imf aswell ?

Sungodbr · 08-08-2011 03:18AM

skelliser wrote: »

a currency built by politicians based on solidarity and unity and not on sound economics was always doomed.
How can you have 17 individual countries budgets for a single currency?!

The US Dollar was created by the many different states that varied economically that made up the USA at the time, the thing is it was not a flawless process, there was a lot of trial and error when they created the Dollar, it failed a number of times and it took them nearly 100 years to get it to work, the Euro will also take a long time to work properly but it will probably be the reserve currency for the planet in the future

The Euro is not just based on the ideals of unity and solidarity but on the premise that it is the best way to make Europe competitive against the emerging powers of India, China, Brazil etc, it has a sound economic purpose

Big Nasty · 08-08-2011 09:59AM

Voodoomelon wrote: »

I went in for a mortgage over the last few months, a mortgage totaling x3 times my salary. Bank said no. We are absolutely f**ked.

If you had gone for it a few years back you would have gotten twice what you asked for and had a shiney new 7er outside the door!

(And be up to your balls in it now)

Voodoomelon · 08-08-2011 11:50AM

Absolutely. The biggest problem was there was lots of renovations built into the mortgage I applied for, the bank and another broker told me that no bank is lending for this kind of project, even though its for a very small amount. Unless the house is worth a fixed amount and is ready to move in, they don't want to know about it.

Morgan Kelly on property: "we are very far from the bottom"

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