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Stalin V Hitler - playing the numbers game

  • 20-07-2011 04:57PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭


    Does anyone have details on the recent Israeli, Russian & German study which downgrades the numbers killed by stalin from 20,000,000 to 6,000,000 ?

    For decades these figures were solid, peer reviewed and well established ; that Stalin killed far more than hitler.

    Now with this new study (which considering the monumental reversal invoved has been extremely quietly announced), the roles are apparently reversed in an incredibly comprehensive fashion.

    Given what is known at this point about the study it is hard to know how reliable this new study is.

    For such an epic study to be so quietly announced and with zero peer review (at this time & to the best of my knowledge) it is not very encouraging in my view.

    The methodology used, the scope of it, which scholars from Israel, Russia and Germany were involved and for how long etc.

    I would not be inclined to trust Israeli scholars on this subject, as there is a clear political motive in downgrading the numbers killed by stalin in order to elevate the numbers killed by Hitler, hence to enhance jewish victimhood which has been the political rockbed of the state of israel, likewise I would not be inclined to trust Russian scholars on this as the re-habilitation of Stalin has been long underway (both for clear political reasons).

    The current climate of political correctness in German WW2 study means that those scholars results also have to be scrutinised in my view.

    Is anyone else surprised by this ? Anyone else feel given what is known at this point the results are entirely credible/partially credible/non-credible ?

    http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011/jan/27/hitler-vs-stalin-who-was-worse/

    I am not looking for the usual brainless 'All Germans=BAD all Soviets =Good' types of responses from the usual suspects here, the thread is for a wider, less hysterical, less emotional and more considered purpose.
    The total number of noncombatants killed by the Germans—about 11 million—is roughly what we had thought. The total number of civilians killed by the Soviets, however, is considerably less than we had believed. We know now that the Germans killed more people than the Soviets did. That said, the issue of quality is more complex than was once thought. Mass murder in the Soviet Union sometimes involved motivations, especially national and ethnic ones, that can be disconcertingly close to Nazi motivations.

    It turns out that, with the exception of the war years, a very large majority of people who entered the Gulag left alive. Judging from the Soviet records we now have, the number of people who died in the Gulag between 1933 and 1945, while both Stalin and Hitler were in power, was on the order of a million, perhaps a bit more. The total figure for the entire Stalinist period is likely between two million and three million. The Great Terror and other shooting actions killed no more than a million people, probably a bit less. The largest human catastrophe of Stalinism was the famine of 1930–1933, in which more than five million people starved.

    Of those who starved, the 3.3 million or so inhabitants of Soviet Ukraine who died in 1932 and 1933 were victims of a deliberate killing policy related to nationality. In early 1930, Stalin had announced his intention to “liquidate” prosperous peasants (“kulaks”) as a class so that the state could control agriculture and use capital extracted from the countryside to build industry. Tens of thousands of people were shot by Soviet state police and hundreds of thousands deported. Those who remained lost their land and often went hungry as the state requisitioned food for export. The first victims of starvation were the nomads of Soviet Kazakhstan, where about 1.3 million people died. The famine spread to Soviet Russia and peaked in Soviet Ukraine. Stalin requisitioned grain in Soviet Ukraine knowing that such a policy would kill millions. Blaming Ukrainians for the failure of his own policy, he ordered a series of measures—such as sealing the borders of that Soviet republic—that ensured mass death.


    A poster from 1930. The text reads, "We will smite the kulak who agitates for reducing cultivated acreage." From Persuasive Images: Posters of War and Revolution from the Hoover Institution Archives by Peter Paret, Beth Irwin Lewis, and Paul Paret

    In 1937, as his vision of modernization faltered, Stalin ordered the Great Terror. Because we now have the killing orders and the death quotas, inaccessible so long as the Soviet Union existed, we now know that the number of victims was not in the millions. We also know that, as in the early 1930s, the main victims were the peasants, many of them survivors of hunger and of concentration camps. The highest Soviet authorities ordered 386,798 people shot in the “Kulak Operation” of 1937–1938. The other major “enemies” during these years were people belonging to national minorities who could be associated with states bordering the Soviet Union: some 247,157 Soviet citizens were killed by the NKVD in ethnic shooting actions.

    In the largest of these, the “Polish Operation” that began in August 1937, 111,091 people accused of espionage for Poland were shot. In all, 682,691 people were killed during the Great Terror, to which might be added a few hundred thousand more Soviet citizens shot in smaller actions. The total figure of civilians deliberately killed under Stalinism, around six million, is of course horribly high. But it is far lower than the estimates of twenty million or more made before we had access to Soviet sources.

    Notes on the above, it seems that the numbers of deaths Stalin is responsible for are based on those who provably died, ie those for whom paper orders have remained intact in the Soviet controlled archives these last 70 yrs. There is no information in the above about the likelihood that those archives remained intact, or if there are missing records, or discrepancies etc.

    Also discouraging that in the quest to lower the stalin body count they disregard some of the millions who died in the famine as being not provably deliberate, hence not blood counted on stalin's hands. I am genuinely curious if these exact same criteria were applied to a study of German killed - ie to only include those for whom records with names exsist what would the figure be then ?


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭marcsignal


    Morlar wrote: »
    Does anyone have details on the recent Israeli, Russian & German study which downgrades the numbers killed by stalin from 20,000,000 to 6,000,000 ?

    :cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    Morlar wrote: »
    Does anyone have details on the recent Israeli, Russian & German study which downgrades the numbers killed by stalin from 20,000,000 to 6,000,000 ?

    .......

    Given what is known at this point about the study it is hard to know how reliable this new study is.

    For such an epic study to be so quietly announced and with zero peer review (at this time & to the best of my knowledge) it is not very encouraging in my view.
    .....

    I would not be inclined to trust Israeli scholars on this subject, as there is a clear political motive in downgrading the numbers killed by stalin in order to elevate the numbers killed by Hitler, hence to enhance jewish victimhood
    .....

    Also discouraging that in the quest to lower the stalin body count they disregard some of the millions who died in the famine as being not provably deliberate, hence not blood counted on stalin's hands.

    Keeping an open mind to something which you are only learning about would be a good starting point IMO:confused:
    I hope I am wrong but the launguage used in yout post suggests that you have already made your mind.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    Keeping an open mind to something which you are only learning about would be a good starting point IMO:confused:
    I hope I am wrong but the launguage used in yout post suggests that you have already made your mind.

    In my experience I find scepticism more valuable in dealing with the study of WW2 history than blind acceptance of things not clearly proven, especially when the acceptance is based on a clear ideological prejudice.

    Anyone else have any thoughts on this ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    I have to admit this new study is news to me.

    I would have thought, like the OP said, that a downgrading of the number of victims apportioned to Stalin thereby increasing the Hitler figure in relative terms, would have been reported by news media.

    And if this new study could be validated, what does that say about the prior historical scholarship which for decades allotted huge figures to Stalin with smaller quantities allocated to Hitler?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    This new one does not seem to include in stalins toll the millions of 'missing' ethnic germans, or the millions of missing wehrmacht in russia. I strongly doubt the exact same criteria were applied to both sets of data. I think it would be interesting to get the full background, context and methodololgy to how exactly these new vastly downsized stalin figures were arrived at.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    Morlar wrote: »
    In my experience I find scepticism more valuable in dealing with the study of WW2 history than blind acceptance of things not clearly proven, especially when the acceptance is based on a clear ideological prejudice.
    Scepticism is fine, but asking a 'question' then following it up with your own 4 answers in the negative when you clearly dont know much about it shows your obvious prejudice. It would be wise to await more information on the study before making up your mind.

    For your information:
    prej·u·dice
       [prej-uh-dis] Show IPA noun, verb, -diced, -dic·ing.
    –noun
    1.
    an unfavorable opinion or feeling formed beforehand or without knowledge, thought, or reason.
    2.
    any preconceived opinion or feeling, either favorable or unfavorable.
    3.
    unreasonable feelings, opinions, or attitudes, especially of a hostile nature, regarding a racial, religious, or national group. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/prejudice

    "an unfavorable opinion or feeling formed beforehand or without knowledge, thought, or reason."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    Scepticism is fine

    You have had 2 posts on this page neither of which contribute anything meaningful to the discussion in any way shape or form whatsoever. I would prefer you did not threadspoil with this nonsense.

    Does anyone else have an opinion on this ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    Morlar wrote: »
    You have had 2 posts on this page neither of which contribute anything meaningful to the discussion in any way shape or form whatsoever. I would prefer you did not threadspoil with this nonsense.

    Im afraid I must point out that there is no spoiling involved. It would be interesting to get some further unbiased feedback on this, hence my highlighting of the OP prejudice. To respond to this in your ad hominem fashion belittles only one person (much as you try to do otherwise). Rather than continue in this line could you explain further this point if possible
    Also discouraging that in the quest to lower the stalin body count they disregard some of the millions who died in the famine as being not provably deliberate, hence not blood counted on stalin's hands.
    Is there information on this method of compiling deliberate vs. non-deliberate?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    Im afraid I must point out that there is no spoiling involved.

    It is not up to the person doing the threadspoiling to decide if there is any threadspoiling taking place.

    Does anyone else have an opinion on this ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,278 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    The Russians never were any good at sums, and I can't help but compare this study with that pertaining to the total number of Holocaust victims. They calculated that there were 6 million Jewish victims, whereas the other allies estimate 2 or 3 million. The figure of 6 million is still carved in stone, despite the general consensus nowadays that the Russians were wrong and that the other allies were closer to the truth.

    It could be said that the Russians were playing the numbers game to ram home the evils of nazism, in the same way that the anti-Stalin camp has possibly been overdoing the numbers for their own agenda.

    The end result could well be a proportionate reduction in victims on both sides, possibly not changing the pre-revisionist position as to which one was worse than the other.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭marcsignal


    ejmaztec wrote: »
    The Russians never were any good at sums, and I can't help but compare this study with that pertaining to the total number of Holocaust victims. They calculated that there were 6 million Jewish victims, whereas the other allies estimate 2 or 3 million. The figure of 6 million is still carved in stone, despite the general consensus nowadays that the Russians were wrong and that the other allies were closer to the truth.

    Funny thing is, that this Russian, Israeli *cough* and German study is nothing less than Revisionism, is it not ??
    I wonder are these 'Historians' going to be pelted with eggs everywhere they go now, like David Irving?? *

    *I have never read any of David Irvings material.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,929 ✭✭✭PrzemoF


    Some Polish books says he killed 27.00.000 to 72.000.000. The Ucraine famine alone was 5-10.000.000.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    PrzemoF wrote: »
    Some Polish books says he killed 27.00.000 to 72.000.000. The Ucraine famine alone was 5-10.000.000.

    I always thought circa 8,000,000 for the Holdomor. It was that figure for decades if I am not mistaken.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,278 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    marcsignal wrote: »
    Funny thing is, that this Russian, Israeli *cough* and German study is nothing less than Revisionism, is it not ??
    I wonder are these 'Historians' going to be pelted with eggs everywhere they go now, like David Irving?? *

    *I have never read any of David Irvings material.

    They'll all be arguing for evermore, when some other revisionist bright sparks come up with some other altered statistics.

    If Irving comes up with them, they'll immediately get shot down in flames, so it's probably best that he doesn't bother, and leaves it to some credible historian to do the ground-work.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭marcsignal


    ejmaztec wrote: »
    They'll all be arguing for evermore, when some other revisionist bright sparks come up with some other altered statistics.

    If Irving comes up with them, they'll immediately get shot down in flames, so it's probably best that he doesn't bother, and leaves it to some credible historian to do the ground-work.

    Well if the piece is ever peer reviewed by Gulie Ne'eman Arad, Peter Novick or Norman Finkelstein, I'd be interested in their findings.
    However I can't help feeling it's more likely to be reviewed by someone like This Guy unfortunately. He's bound to think it's an acedemic masterpiece, shoring up his own deranged philosophy on Israel.
    PrzemoF wrote: »
    Some Polish books says he killed 27.00.000 to 72.000.000. The Ucraine famine alone was 5-10.000.000.

    I've found some Eastern European books interesting in this regard, and have cited them on here before. Unfortunately the information has been very cooly recieved in some quarters, particularly by posters who lurk, infer, condescend, etc, and then don't back up their own claims.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    The story about the revised figures doesn't seem to have gained any traction in terms of the story being reported in the general media.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    hinault wrote: »
    The story about the revised figures doesn't seem to have gained any traction in terms of the story being reported in the general media.

    I had noticed that too and that is an oddity.

    If the Hitler figures were overnight reduced by 75% there would be more focus I believe. I believe the response would certainly not be even handed in any way shape or form in comparison to the response this one received.

    Some historians like to make a name for themselves with headline grabbers, and that is certainly the most noteworthy aspect of that article about this book.

    I am not really entirely sure what to make of the low key inclusion of figures such as those in this article/book.

    Or what to make of the seemingly total absence of any kind of media scrutiny attracted to this study, and the seismic shift that it's figures purport to represent.

    It could mean that serious historians have not given it enough credibility to even warrant a response, but this is not necessarily the case. I really don't know what to make of that at all.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,869 ✭✭✭Mahatma coat


    ejmaztec wrote: »
    The Russians never were any good at sums, and I can't help but compare this study with that pertaining to the total number of Holocaust victims. They calculated that there were 6 million Jewish victims, whereas the other allies estimate 2 or 3 million. The figure of 6 million is still carved in stone, despite the general consensus nowadays that the Russians were wrong and that the other allies were closer to the truth.

    It could be said that the Russians were playing the numbers game to ram home the evils of nazism, in the same way that the anti-Stalin camp has possibly been overdoing the numbers for their own agenda.

    The end result could well be a proportionate reduction in victims on both sides, possibly not changing the pre-revisionist position as to which one was worse than the other.

    ah but its only Illegal to revise ONE set of figures mentioned.


    this is very interesting, what counts as Non Deliberate Killing in something like the holdomor?

    what if the same criteria were applied to the holocaust, ie remove all the numbers that died from diseases in the Camps, Remove all those who were Killed for 'justifiable' reasons, I'd wager that the figures would come down to somewhere between 1 and 2 million.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    What are people commenting on?

    the article by snyder? Or the 'study' hes talking about? The possiblity of revised figures being less than previously known?

    Are these figures in a book or article or what contitutes this 'study'? Surely the basis and methodology for any analysis of figures should be checked before they are so easily dismissed or accepted. This is all missing at this stage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    marcsignal wrote: »
    Well if the piece is ever peer reviewed by Gulie Ne'eman Arad, Peter Novick or Norman Finkelstein, I'd be interested in their findings.
    However I can't help feeling it's more likely to be reviewed by someone like This Guy unfortunately.

    Considering the finkelstein v goldhagen debates that would make for an interesting discussion.

    http://www.normanfinkelstein.com/article.php?pg=2&ar=2
    Finkelstein's Response to Goldhagen. Comments on Daniel Goldhagen's "The New Discourse of Avoidance"

    by Norman G. Finkelstein, April 9, 1998

    In March 1998, Metropolitan Books, an imprint of Henry Holt, collected two published essays by, respectively, Ruth Bettina Birn and myself, into a book entitled A Nation on Trial: The Goldhagen Thesis and Historical Truth [hereafter: ANOT]. (1) Scrutinizing Goldhagen's scholarship, Birn and I both concluded that Daniel Jonah Goldhagen's Hitler's Willing Executioners [hereafter: HWE] (2) fell below the minimum standards of an academic study. In her essay, Birn, who is the recognized authority on the archives Goldhagen consulted for his book, documents that Goldhagen systematically distorted these primary source materials. In my essay, I document that Goldhagen's book is replete with gross misrepresentations of the secondary literature and internal contradictions.

    In fall 1997, Goldhagen published a reply to Birn's original article in German Politics and Society. (3) Although fully twice the length of Birn's piece, it passes over in silence Birn's central criticisms bearing on the archives. (4) In March 1998, Goldhagen posted on his web site a reply to my essay entitled "The New Discourse of Avoidance." (5) My critique of Goldhagen's scholarship runs to 87 pages. Yet, the points he directly contests in his reply comprise altogether less than two pages of my text. Goldhagen told Newsweek that he had prepared a "point-by-point" rebuttal of my essay. (6) Even in the examples he cites, Goldhagen does not dispute but rather obfuscates my arguments. I will return to these evidentiary questions presently. The preponderance of Goldhagen's reply, however, consists of what one might call a new discourse of avoidance. Indeed, Goldhagen assembles a stupefying catalogue of allegations. Illuminating as they are of Goldhagen's (lack of) scholarly scruples, (7) I want first to consider them. My remarks will only address, however, topics pertinent to A Nation on Trial. Readers interested in my views on the Israel-Palestine conflict can consult my published works. (8)

    (A) Goldhagen purports that I "deride the notion that Jews were 'innocent' in the Germans' genocidal assault on them." This remarkable claim merits pause. With endorsements from the world's leading authorities on the Nazi holocaust (including Raul Hilberg and Christopher Browning), the son of survivors of the Nazi holocaust maintains -- according to Goldhagen -- that the Jews deserved to die. Stepping outside Goldhagen's fantasy world, we read in A Nation on Trial: "It should be clear that, in the context of the Nazi genocide, there can be no question of Jewish guilt or innocence" (ANOT: 95). (9)

    (B) Goldhagen purports that I "would have people believe that the Germans who tortured, brutalized, and killed Jews were not anti-Semites." The relevant passage in A Nation on Trial reads: "It bears emphasis that Germany's anti-Semitic legacy did constitute a vital precondition for the genocide" (ANOT: 53).

    (C) Goldhagen purports that I dismiss all "non-German scholars" on the Nazi holocaust as Jewish "propagandists" in the service of a "Zionist conspiracy." Yet in my essay, I distinguish between two bodies of work on the Nazi holocaust: "holocaust scholarship, which tends to be historical and multicausal, and Holocaust literature, which tends to be ahistorical and monocausal." (ANOT: 88) I reckon the former as "solid scholarly research," the latter as "largely devoid of scholarly interest." I also locate Holocaust literature in the Zionist paradigm which casts the Nazi genocide as the climax of a millennial Gentile hatred of Jews. Finally, I point to an apologetic dimension in this Zionist discourse. The respected Israeli writer, Boas Evron, similarly observes that it "condones in advance any inhuman treatment of non-Jews, for the prevailing mythology is that 'all peoples collaborated with the Nazis in the destruction of Jewry,' hence everything is permissible to Jews in their relationship to other peoples." (10) For the record, the Nazi holocaust scholars I specifically praise in my essay -- Hannah Arendt, Raul Hilberg, Arno Mayer and Eva Reichmann -- are all Jewish. I rely much more heavily on the Anglo-American than the German contingent of historians. Among those I cite most frequently is Israeli scholar David Bankier. I rue this ethnic roll-call but Goldhagen's sinister accusation leaves me no choice. True, I place Goldhagen's study in the category of Holocaust literature. It seems that Goldhagen confounds my evaluation of his own book -- "worthless as scholarship" -- with my evaluation of all academic research on the Nazi holocaust.

    (D) Goldhagen purports that my contribution to A Nation on Trial is a "sanitized," "excised," "cover up" version of my New Left Review article, which Henry Holt is now trying to "foist...on what it hopes remains an unsuspecting public." Goldhagen is apparently unaware of the normal scholarly practice of revising a journal article for publication in a book. The original New Left Review version of my essay did not benefit from extensive peer review. (11) In accordance with subsequent scholarly criticisms that I found valid, my initial formulations were variously modified, refined, sharpened, muted, and modulated. I remain grateful for this collegial input. The finished product is much improved. The overarching framework of my essay, however, is unchanged. I also bolstered the scholarly apparatus with additional documentation. Indeed, the allegedly "sanitized" Holt version contains controversial new material.

    (E) Goldhagen purports that "Finkelstein's allegations, including that I think Germans are 'crazy' and 'deranged perverts' are wild inventions." In Hitler's Willing Executioners, Goldhagen depicts the typical German as "pathologically ill...struck with the illness of sadism...diseased, tyrannical, sadistic," "psychopathic" (HWE: 397, 450, quoting a "keen diarist of the Warsaw Ghetto"), in thrall to "absolutely fantastical...beliefs that ordinarily only madmen have of others...prone to wild, 'magical thinking'" (HWE: 412), and so on. The book's most evocative analogy compares the typical German to "crazy" Captain Ahab (HWE: 398-9). In Goldhagen's mind, these formulations "restore the humanity" of ordinary Germans.

    (F) Goldhagen also dissents from my methodology. In fact, my approach is simply to scrutinize Goldhagen's text for internal consistency and verify his citations from the mostly English-language secondary literature he uses. (12) None of the many prominent scholars who endorsed the Holt book (e.g., Ian Kershaw) questioned its methodology. Goldhagen is the first and to date only one to do so. Leaving aside that Goldhagen is perhaps not the best placed to render judgment in matters of methodology, these disputes are best resolved in concrete analysis. Regrettably, Goldhagen devotes only a small fraction of his response to directly engaging my findings. I want now to consider this rebuttal.

    1. To document his claim that homicidal anti-Semitism was pervasive in Germany and Austria even before Hitler's rise to power, Goldhagen cited historian Peter Pulzer's finding that there were 12 ritual murder trials between 1867 and 1914. However, Goldhagen reversed the import of Pulzer's finding. The remainder of Pulzer's original sentence read: "eleven of which collapsed although trials were by jury." In his reply, Goldhagen does not dispute that he suppressed the crucial caveat in the Pulzer finding that undermines his thesis. Rather, he complains that I "zoom in" on this one example. Yet, my essay documents not an isolated case but rather a pattern of systematic misrepresentations throughout his book.

    2. In the body of his text, Goldhagen reports a scholarly claim that the anti-Semitic petition campaign in mid-19th-century Bavaria was spontaneous and broad-based. In the endnote, however, Goldhagen presents creditable evidence that the campaign was carefully orchestrated and that many German signatories did not harbor anti-Semitic animus. Goldhagen states in his reply that he did "openly discuss" the full gamut of evidence. Yet, I never contested this. My point was that Goldhagen's own critical evidence disputing his textual claim was buried in the book's back pages.

    3. The central thesis of Goldhagen's book is that ordinary Germans were no less anti-Semitic than Nazi party members. Thus Goldhagen reports, for example, that, right after Hitler's seizure of power, "Germans posted signs" with anti-Semitic prohibitions. Turning to the cited source, we learn that this campaign was organized not by ordinary Germans but by "local hotheads in the Nazi movement." In his reply, Goldhagen doesn't dispute that he explicitly misrepresented his source. Rather, he claims that his general context implied Nazis. Yet his general context also implied ordinary Germans (cf. his allusions to "Germans inside and outside the government," and a "society-wide attack" on the Jews). His specific reference, however, isn't at all ambiguous: it is flat-out false. This example illustrates one of Goldhagen's techniques for "proving" the Nazification of ordinary Germans: where the source material states "Nazis," he reports "Germans."

    4. According to Goldhagen, Hitler fully and incessantly apprised the German people of his genocidal plans. I document that none of the evidence through 1939 supports this claim. I then quote Max Domarus, the authoritative compiler of Hitler's speeches and public pronouncements, that Hitler did not explicitly proclaim a policy of genocide even during the war years. Rather, Domarus reports, Hitler "confined his remarks on a massacre of Jews to threats within the scope of his foreign policy." Contrariwise, Goldhagen maintains that Hitler "announced many times, emphatically," the genocidal killing of the Jews. Goldhagen thus dissents from what he himself calls in his reply Domarus's "different interpretation." Yet, the source material Goldhagen cites in support of his own interpretation, the Domarus collection, supports Domarus. Goldhagen's complementary claim is that ordinary Germans assented to the genocide. In his reply, Goldhagen himself explicitly conjoins the two claims, arguing that, if ordinary Germans opposed the Final Solution, why did Hitler "keep announcing and emphasizing it"? Yet Goldhagen's source, Domarus, documents that Hitler's public pronouncements were in fact contingent and indirect. Indeed, every schoolboy knows that the Final Solution was officially shrouded in secrecy. To sustain his argument, Goldhagen misrepresents Domarus's finding -- exactly as I suggested in my essay.

    These four items exhaust Goldhagen's rebuttal. As noted above, the points he contests comprise altogether two percent of my textual critique. Significantly, Goldhagen quietly passes over the numerous internal contradictions that I document in his book. His silence is, if unfortunate, nonetheless understandable. Readers could then easily verify who is telling the truth. Goldhagen states that "nothing can be believed in Finkelstein's piece without first comparing his text against my original text." I strongly agree. Indeed, I would urge readers to do so.

    Notes

    1. Ruth Bettina Birn's essay, "Revising the Holocaust," originally appeared in a slightly shorter version in The Historical Journal, 40.1 (1997). A shorter version of my essay, "Daniel Jonah Goldhagen's 'Crazy' Thesis," originally appeared in New Left Review, July/August 1997.

    2. New York: 1996.

    3. Daniel Jonah Goldhagen, "The Fictions of Ruth Bettina Birn," in German Politics and Society, Volume 15, Number 3, Fall 1997.

    4. See Birn's forthcoming rejoinder in German Politics and Society.

    5. See www.Goldhagen.com.

    6. Laura Shapiro, "A Battle Over the Holocaust," 23 March 1998, 66.

    7. I will leave to one side Goldhagen's scholarly style which confuses invective -- he variously denounces me as "a notorious anti-Zionist ideologue," "the neophyte Finkelstein," "the anti-Zionist crusader and conspiracy theorist," etc. etc. -- with rational argument. I would be remiss, however, to ignore Goldhagen's recent insinuation that my co-author, Ruth Bettina Birn, is an anti-Semite (cf. "A Comment by Daniel Jonah Goldhagen on A Nation on Trial: The Goldhagen Thesis and Historical Truth," posted on Goldhagen's web site). Birn is not only an internationally recognized scholar but also commands unique moral authority. She is a German who has devoted her life's work to prosecuting Nazi war criminals in Canada. In electing to serve as chief historian for Canada's war crimes unit, Birn has displayed rare personal integrity. Unfortunately, Goldhagen's web site does not allow for dialogue. Epithets are hurled, but the elementary right of response is denied.

    8. See Norman G. Finkelstein, Image and Reality of the Israel-Palestine Conflict (Verso: 1995), and The Rise and Fall of Palestine (University of Minnesota: 1996). To discredit my scholarship, Goldhagen reports that "Finkelstein's published work has been in the 'field' of anti-Zionism," and reproduces an unsigned notice in a trade journal. Permit me, then, to quote a signed review by William Quandt, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former member of the National Security Council, that was published in Foreign Affairs: The prospects for war between Israel and the Arab nations may be fading, but the war of the historians rages on. For some years, revisionists have been dismantling Israeli and Arab myths created in the formative years of the conflict. Now, as in this book, the revisionists themselves are under attack for not going far enough. Finkelstein already has one victory to his credit. Along with a few other conscientious scholars, he demonstrated that Joan Peters' book From Time Immemorial, which claimed that Palestinians arrived in Palestine only recently, was based on shoddy scholarship. That landmark essay is included in this collection and is the best of his offerings. More controversially, Finkelstein tackles Benny Morris, author of an important account of the origins of the Palestinian refugee exodus. Here he praises much of Morris' empirical research but rejects the conclusion that the exodus was born of war rather than a master plan. All this is bound to be a bit confusing to readers new to the historiography of the Arab-Israeli conflict, but for those well versed in the debates and the literature, this thoroughly documented book is guaranteed to stimulate and provoke. It will be required reading in the continuing war of the historians. (May/June 1996)

    9. In the original New Left Review article -- the unsanitized version, according to Goldhagen -- I similarly state that "in the context of the Nazi holocaust the reality was, if not absolute Gentile guilt, at any rate absolute Jewish innocence" (85; emphasis in original).

    10. Boas Evron, Jewish State or Israeli Nation? (Indiana University Press: 1995), 227.

    11. Allow me to take this opportunity to thank New Left Review for publishing my original article. No mainstream publication would consider it.

    12. In this respect, my lack of professional expertise in the field did not prove a liability. For the kind of analysis I underto ok, common sense quite sufficed.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    What would they talk about Morlar since you cannot provide a link to the 'study that you are speculating on? I can't find any other information on this study so discussing it is a bit like a poormans chinese whispers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    Keeping an open mind to something which you are only learning about would be a good starting point IMO:confused:
    I hope I am wrong but the launguage used in yout post suggests that you have already made your mind.

    He's right to be skeptical. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    What would they talk about Morlar since you cannot provide a link to the 'study that you are speculating on? I can't find any other information on this study so discussing it is a bit like a poormans chinese whispers.

    'Does anyone have details'
    are the first four words of this thread. Your approval for a discussion on this, or any other subject is not sought by anyone.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,578 ✭✭✭jonniebgood1


    Fremen wrote: »
    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

    I agree. The problem however is we have'nt seen where the claims are made and how they come to make these claims. Thus adjudicating on them is quite difficult. I have searched the web for information and cannot find anything. Thus I find it strange that a discussion is started about something thats not known and am curious as to what the motive for this is:confused:. Might as well talk about the leprauchans until we see the source paper. Or any other rumours doing the mill. Unfortunately this thread was prejudiced from the OP as I have pointed out. Its not to be rubbished because its author may have been israeli (Jewish being the implication) or German as has been suggested by OP and others. In the simplest terms if there is no further information availiable about this study then it is discounted as it is not possible to consider it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    Fremen wrote: »
    He's right to be skeptical. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

    And these are very, very extraordinary claims. Also noteworthy is the manner of their arrival and lack of scrutiny. As mentioned in post 17 & 18 - seems inexplicable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    In the simplest terms if there is no further information availiable about this study then it is discounted as it is not possible to consider it.

    Could not agree more.

    No one has said it is possible to accept these figures without more contextual information. I certainly would not accept them as presented.

    That does not mean there can be no further discussion on this subject. This thread was started to find out more, to gather views and discuss a *potential seismic shift in the numbers of recorded deaths associated with WW2.

    *potential - if the context and detailed methodology used in gathering of these figures become known and stands up to review.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,126 ✭✭✭Reekwind


    [Edit: The article in question is probably 'Getty, Rittersporn and Zemskov, (1993), Victims of the Soviet Penal System in the Pre-War Years'. It's well known enough that it's probably available online and is well worth the read. However this paper was:

    a) Published almost twenty years ago. Which is probably why none of youse have heard of it (even if it is a seminal and highly cited paper in the field). It is not a new paper that has been "extremely quietly announced"

    b) Extensively built upon in subsequent papers, some of whom I reference in the link below. Those particularly vested in the old figures have challenged aspects of its findings but on the whole the archival figures that it draws upon have been pretty much accepted by subsequent historians. Many later papers have elaborated on it

    As an aside, however, dismissing an article without even knowing it's name or substance is pretty bad form]
    Morlar wrote: »
    Does anyone have details on the recent Israeli, Russian & German study which downgrades the numbers killed by stalin from 20,000,000 to 6,000,000 ?

    For decades these figures were solid, peer reviewed and well established ; that Stalin killed far more than hitler
    They were also based on speculation, guesstimates and isolated scraps of material. Historians did the best they could but there simply wasn't a lot to go on. In contrast, figures for the Nazi crimes were established primarily from Nazi documentation and archive evidence recovered after the fall of the Third Reich. For decades such material on Soviet crimes was simply not available to historians. The odd scrap leaked out from

    What changed was the fall of the USSR and the (partial) opening of the state archives. This is obviously not new and the first paper to provide real archive evidence in English was published in 1993. I note a number of the relevant papers published since here. This has comprehensively changed our understanding of the Soviet penal system and has made most of the high pre-1990 estimates unsustainable in my opinion

    Of course these figures only provide a rough base to work from and if new numbers emerge then we are naturally obliged to factor them in. For now though the academic consensus seems to be settling on a range of 1m purposefully executed, 2-3m killed during deportations or incarceration, and 3-7m dead via famine. The latter was obviously a product of Soviet economic policies but these days not even Conquest maintains that it was man-made or deliberate
    Now with this new study (which considering the monumental reversal invoved has been extremely quietly announced), the roles are apparently reversed in an incredibly comprehensive fashion.

    Given what is known at this point about the study it is hard to know how reliable this new study is.

    For such an epic study to be so quietly announced and with zero peer review (at this time & to the best of my knowledge) it is not very encouraging in my view.
    To stress again: this is not the result of one study but a whole series of papers (in Russian, English and German) since the fall of the USSR

    It's actually gotten to the point where even a relatively conservative historian like Snyder (whose Bloodlands follows very much in the 'totalitarian' tradition) is abandoning the higher figures
    ...likewise I would not be inclined to trust Russian scholars on this as the re-habilitation of Stalin has been long underway (both for clear political reasons).
    It's actually quite the opposite. Russian academia, and those who buy books, have been virulently anti-Stalin for years now. 'Beating up' on Stalin (which strikes me as unprofessional, if not entirely undeserved) is one of the quicker ways to get a grant or book advance in Russia. For example, Suvorov's Icebreaker thesis has been largely discredited by Western military historians but remains popular with their Russian counterparts
    Notes on the above, it seems that the numbers of deaths Stalin is responsible for are based on those who provably died, ie those for whom paper orders have remained intact in the Soviet controlled archives these last 70 yrs. There is no information in the above about the likelihood that those archives remained intact, or if there are missing records, or discrepancies etc
    This is very true and, as I say, if new records come to light then they will be incorporated into the historical record. For now however there is no reason to doubt the archive figures that we do have (which were intended for internal consumption during the Soviet era) and they provide us with a much more solid base to work from than the estimates of the 1960s. Obviously they have to be set alongside literary and demographic sources but these are figures that are far more detailed than previous work

    For example, Wheatcroft (1996) has shown that Conquest's figures regarding the prisoner population at Nagoevo, which were based on transport ship capacity, were at times over 500% greater than the archive data reports. Conquest got some things right but we're now in a far better position to assess the reality
    Also discouraging that in the quest to lower the stalin body count they disregard some of the millions who died in the famine as being not provably deliberate, hence not blood counted on stalin's hands. I am genuinely curious if these exact same criteria were applied to a study of German killed - ie to only include those for whom records with names exsist what would the figure be then ?
    The difference is that there is ample evidence that Nazi famines were planned (ie, the notorious Backe-Plan) whereas two decades of research has failed to turn up anything resembling a 'smoking gun' with regards the famine of the early 1930s. It's easy to consider this to be the product, at least in part, of Stalin's economic policies but it is baseless to suggest that this was an intentional famine. The research simply doesn't support that

    As such the famine is far more akin to the Irish Famine of the 1840s than anything the Nazis perpetrated. You can add this to Stalin's total if you wish (and it still won't top Hitler's) but it is perfectly understandable that such a distinction should be made

    Edit:
    hinault wrote:
    The story about the revised figures doesn't seem to have gained any traction in terms of the story being reported in the general media
    I find that disappointing as well. For the last twenty years academics have been steadily lowering their ranges for deaths under Stalin (for example, a mere decade ago the famine of the 1930s was estimated to have claimed 7-8m; now the same authors propose, in light of new evidence, 3-5m deaths) yet the popular perception is moving the other way. Basically, this should not have been a shock to anyone but the divergence between historical reality and its representation in the popular media grows wider every year


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭marcsignal


    Just posted a documentary Here about Stalin, Barbarossa, Hitler etc, and goes into Stalins relationship with Churchill in some detail.
    The excerpts from private conversations between Stalin and Churchill certainly give some insight into the man.
    The Holodomor is cynically mentioned by Stalin at one point.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    Reekwind wrote: »
    [Edit: The article in question is probably 'Getty, Rittersporn and Zemskov, (1993), Victims of the Soviet Penal System in the Pre-War Years'. It's well known enough that it's probably available online and is well worth the read. However this paper was:

    a) Published almost twenty years ago. Which is probably why none of youse have heard of it (even if it is a seminal and highly cited paper in the field). It is not a new paper that has been "extremely quietly announced"

    b) Extensively built upon in subsequent papers, some of whom I reference in the link below. Those particularly vested in the old figures have challenged aspects of its findings but on the whole the archival figures that it draws upon have been pretty much accepted by subsequent historians. Many later papers have elaborated on it

    As an aside, however, dismissing an article without even knowing it's name or substance is pretty bad form]
    .....

    Edit:
    I find that disappointing as well. For the last twenty years academics have been steadily lowering their ranges for deaths under Stalin (for example, a mere decade ago the famine of the 1930s was estimated to have claimed 7-8m; now the same authors propose, in light of new evidence, 3-5m deaths) yet the popular perception is moving the other way. Basically, this should not have been a shock to anyone but the divergence between historical reality and its representation in the popular media grows wider every year

    I think it would be fair to broadly summarise your (original non edited) post as follows :

    (leaving aside the most recent edits)

    - These figures are not new. The original figures were not reliable
    - The 'new' (75% reduced) figures of soviet killed are above reproach
    - The non-reduced figures of German killed are also above reproach
    - The holdomor was accidental and not Stalin's fault
    - There is no political element (particularly rehabilitation of stalin) involved in the 75% reduction of soviet killed & 'leaving as is' of unchanged German figures.
    - Previous figures of Soviet killed which were based on transport capacity are now (in places) reduced by 500%, German killed based on transport capacity are not however reduced.


    I accept your point about there being no single, unified study by Israeli, Russian and German historians. Having re-read the phrasing used in the article is unclear *:

    "Today, after two decades of access to Eastern European archives, and thanks to the work of German, Russian, Israeli, and other scholars, we can resolve the question of numbers."

    It does seem that this 75% reduced bodycount based may not be based on a single work, but instead on a myriad of sources (not referenced in the Snyder article).

    I do not accept your assertion that the Holdomor was accidental. When it was clearly the forseeable result of deliberate Soviet policy. Furthermore purposefully exacerbated in the Ukraine. Those figures certainly stay in Stalin's column on my sheet. As regards smoking guns and Stalin - you are aware of the David Irving '£1000 to anyone' who can produce a written order by Adolf Hitler to annihilate the Jews ? To the best of my knowledge no one has ever claimed that money. Are you applying the same criteria to both sides tallies as regards the absence of smoking guns here ? Or Just Stalin for the holdomor.

    Several points made above should be addressed. Firstly on the subject of the German killed figures being beyond reproach, actually they are not. In many cases based on unreliable census figures and double counting and 'worst possible case scenario' in terms of transports per day filled to x capactiy. There is an interesting thread about the census aspect on axishistory.com :
    http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=33429&sid=5ffb391a2418ae0a15e6d5630d70baf4

    I would refer to the post halfway down the page 'by michael mills on 11 Oct 2003, 15:32' which gives a reasonable summary re census figures in my view.

    I had said :
    Notes on the above, it seems that the numbers of deaths Stalin is responsible for are based on those who provably died, ie those for whom paper orders have remained intact in the Soviet controlled archives these last 70 yrs. There is no information in the above about the likelihood that those archives remained intact, or if there are missing records, or discrepancies etc

    And you responded to some or all of that with :
    This is very true and, as I say, if new records come to light then they will be incorporated into the historical record. For now however there is no reason to doubt the archive figures that we do have (which were intended for internal consumption during the Soviet era) and they provide us with a much more solid base to work from than the estimates of the 1960s. Obviously they have to be set alongside literary and demographic sources but these are figures that are far more detailed than previous work

    There is nothing to suggest the assertion that figures intended for internal Communist party/ state purposes are by definition inherently more trustworthy on the basis of their intended non publication and audience. There is also a question of missing records, discrepancies and the integrity of these documents in the soviet system since placed there, and throughout the various changes in party leader from that day forward. Let me put it to you this way if the National Socialist regime had won the war would the figures remaining in their N.S. archives 70 years later, and recently selectively released, would those equivalent figures be more or less definitive and trustworthy than these ?

    You also mentioned soviet academics increasing their likelihood of receiving a grant if they were to increase the Stalin figures, I don't accept that point and the inference that rehabillitation of Stalin is a non issue. The rehabilitation of Stalin is certainly not limited in scope to Putin and a handful of hardline communists. Nor somehow it it utterly absent among Russian academia. Inversely German academic study of German figures are certainly not free of political influence. In fact a German questioning the numbers could find themselves in legal difficulty due to the extreme legislation and pervasive climate of political sensitivity which is in place on this subject in that country.

    I think a comparison based on figures which are made up of :
    -on the one hand a myriad of lesser known studies, subject to less scrutiny than those on the other
    -on the other hand a climate where to even question numbers can lead to the ruin of your reputation and legal issues

    is not a like for like comparison to begin with. Even so I would be genuinely curious to see the exact same level of scrutiny, and exact same criteria (and wherever applicable methodology) applied to the compilation of both sets of raw and 'editorialised' data.

    * Per edit this may now in fact be based on a single study after all !


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,126 ✭✭✭Reekwind


    Morlar wrote: »
    - The 'new' (75% reduced) figures of soviet killed are above reproach
    - The non-reduced figures of German killed are also above reproach
    No, of course they can be questioned. They are however, by some distance, the best figures that we currently have to work with. If at some point in the future new or contradictory evidence emerges then naturally this would lead to a re-evaluation. For now though we work with what we have and this points to a range of deaths far lower than many, but not all, pre-1990 estimates
    - There is no political element (particularly rehabilitation of stalin) involved in the 75% reduction of soviet killed & 'leaving as is' of unchanged German figures
    You're looking at this in entirely the wrong way. In the first place, no, there is no political bias present. Unless you want to write off vast numbers of academics on the basis of their nationality. I've seen nothing to suggest that any of the authors that I've mentioned in this thread or that link have any known political affiliations. To be perfectly blunt, it sounds like yourself who is being overly influenced by ideological concerns

    Secondly, the "German figures" are entirely irrelevant to estimates of Stalinist victims. Why should they be? This is not some namby-pamby PC exercise where a lowering of one set automatically necessitates the lowering of the other. We're discussing the deaths of real people in horrific circumstances. In this case there has been no re-evaluation of German crimes because those numbers are already based on archival evidence. Historians of the USSR simply did not have the same quality of data until two decades ago

    Again, if new evidence comes to light as to Nazi crimes then of course the numbers may be revised. This is unlikely to happen however given the academic attention that the Third Reich has drawn over the past 60-70 years. We're nowhere near that level of knowledge with regards the USSR
    - Previous figures of Soviet killed which were based on transport capacity are now (in places) reduced by 500%, German killed based on transport capacity are not however reduced.
    What Nazi figures are you referring to? We know of the vast majority of Nazi victims because the Nazis themselves were kind enough to record their details. Where this is lacking - such as the activities of the Einsatzgruppen or deaths of Soviet civilians - then the numbers are much more fuzzy

    Now I'm not as familiar with studies into the Holocaust but I suspect that if anyone based an estimate on the Auschwitz death toll based solely on the number of train loads that visited the site... well, they'd probably be laughed at. That's because we have access to much better data, derived from Nazi records, as to the individuals that passed through the camp
    I do not accept your assertion that the Holdomor was accidental. When it was clearly the forseeable result of deliberate Soviet policy. Furthermore purposefully exacerbated in the Ukraine
    Prove it. This is a position that is entirely unsupported by historical evidence. Not even the likes of Conquest seriously contends that Stalin deliberately brought the soviet economy, and state, to the brink of ruin. But then if it is so evident then feel free to prove it

    And I'd also like to qualify "accidental". The famine was definitely a product of a disastrous Soviet agricultural policy, admittedly exacerbated by weather conditions, but it was not intentional. And that I feel is key. Does it absolve the Stalinist state of blame? Of course not. But it does make it difficult to construct a comparison with Nazi atrocities
    As regards smoking guns and Stalin - you are aware of the David Irving '£1000 to anyone' who can produce a written order by Adolf Hitler to annihilate the Jews ? To the best of my knowledge no one has ever claimed that money. Are you applying the same criteria to both sides tallies as regards the absence of smoking guns here ? Or Just Stalin for the holdomor.
    Are you suggesting that there is no evidence that genocide of the Jews was planned by top Nazi officials, including Hitler? :confused:

    I don't know about Irving's 'bet' but there is massive stacks of evidence as to the purposeful nature of the Holocaust. We know who was involved in it, the key dates, have copies of both the orders issued and confessions of the guilty. There is a solid chain of evidence that leaves no room for doubt. Nothing like this has ever been put forward for the Soviet famines
    There is nothing to suggest the assertion that figures intended for internal Communist party/ state purposes are by definition inherently more trustworthy on the basis of their intended non publication and audience
    Huh? Of course there is. Soviet reports intended for propaganda or other publishing (such as census figures or grain yields) are obviously of suspect nature. These numbers are not derived from such a source. It's possible of course that the security services were simply lying to both the political leadership and their other, but that seems unlikely. Certainly it would be stupid to throw out such a resource, and return to guesswork, on the basis of such an unfounded suspicion

    The point I do take is that the statistics themselves are incomplete and be misleading in places. But that's why we employ reason and scepticism. No one believes, for example, that all those executed under 'counter-revolutionary crimes' were actually guilty of anti-Soviet agitation. Similarly, ranges are built into the estimates for this reason. The archives state that only 800k (IIRC) political executions took place during the Stalin years but most historians are smart enough to round this up to 1m or 1.5m to account for understating. What is not justified is to assume that the records only account for a small fraction of the total deaths; there's just no basis for that

    And yet again I stress that these are the best figures that we have available at this time. Should new evidence emerge then of course these ranges will change. For now however most historians in the field accept that it's better to work with the data, bearing in mind the possible pitfalls, than ignore it
    Let me put it to you this way if the National Socialist regime had won the war would the figures remaining in their N.S. archives 70 years later, and recently selectively released, would those equivalent figures be more or less definitive and trustworthy than these ?
    Ah, but this is not the case at all. Unless you are arguing that the Soviet Union never collapsed? Or that there is no difference between the USSR and the Russian Federation? By which logic today's Germany has an interest in minimising Nazi war crimes... :confused:

    Again, this just seems to me to be an unjustified national bias on your part. So we can never trust any records that emerge from Russia, even if the research has been conducted by Western historians, just because the sources are Russian? That's nonsensical
    You also mentioned soviet academics increasing their likelihood of receiving a grant if they were to increase the Stalin figures, I don't accept that point and the inference that rehabillitation of Stalin is a non issue. The rehabilitation of Stalin is certainly not limited in scope to Putin and a handful of hardline communists. Nor somehow it it utterly absent among Russian academia
    I had a handy quote on hand on this but I can't find it. Anyways, the idea that there is a noticeable pro-Stalin bias in Russian professional history is just wrong. Frankly I don't care about Putin, what matters here is what Russian academics are writing and, AFAIK, it does not flatter Stalin. No one would ever accuse the likes of Medvedev, Andreev or Darsky of being pro-Stalin

    Of course if you want to put forward some evidence...
    Per edit this may now in fact be based on a single study after all !
    Seminal study does not mean 'only study'. This was the first work to draw extensively on archival evidence, not the only one. You can find the figures from the same sources in (probably) dozens of works
    Even so I would be genuinely curious to see the exact same level of scrutiny, and exact same criteria (and wherever applicable methodology) applied to the compilation of both sets of raw and 'editorialised' data
    Listen, I don't want to come across as a know-it-all gob****e but the reality is that a rough academic consensus has settled on the range of figures first proposed by Getty, in English, in his 1993 paper. There is still some controversy, with Conquest questioning the statistics, but there is little question that the earlier 'high' estimates are unsustainable in light of this evidence. This may change in the future but for now that's the case

    Now this is not some overnight change, the ranges have been slowly dropping for almost two decades now, and if you're surprised... well, you shouldn't be. If this goes against your previous preconceptions, then you have two choices. You can either accept the 'new' figures (or at least work off them) in modifying your views on this period, or you can simply dismiss any evidence that you do not agree with and cling to discredited notions

    If you want to do the latter then fine, I honestly don't care. Just let me know because while I'm happy to have a conversation on the topic, I'm not going to bang my head against a brick wall or a series of national prejudices


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