2011 Tornado Season Thread

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!

Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.

Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)

Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.

After that would possibly be good for Southern Illinois on Sunday .

It's like May already out there

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh ye haha.... i forgot to put in the " ... " ....... haha

U on NW Maq?

eskimocat wrote: »

I was wondering if the forecasting of suitable tornado weather 3 or 4 days in advance is the same as reading the FI charts? Do they more regularly get down graded, rather than up graded?

...SYNOPSIS...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST SATURDAY WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...SEWD INTO SC.

...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO IA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NRN IA AND
SE MN AND MOVE INTO NRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TRACK
OF A SFC LOW AND ALONG A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR
THE WARM FRONT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 60 KT AND 0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350
M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN IA NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL WI BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS WI. SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN AND WRN IL WHERE THE
STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE THREAT
DURING THE EVENING.

Iancar29 wrote: »

Goin out 2nite so won't get a chance to watch anything online

So keep posting update for me please! , I can go on this easily enough on my iPhone .

I'm off 2moro ... Gonna be studying all day then virtual chasing all nite ha ! Woo!

Oh ye... 40 days!!