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2011 Tornado Season Thread
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03-04-2011 11:36am#1Well, its that time of year again so I thought I'd start up a thread for this years North American Tornado season, a place to post links to the Storm Prediction Center's forecasts, live chaser streams for those that like 'virtual chasing', media reports & pics/vids etc.
Anyway, we have a moderate risk for this evening :
SPC AC 030558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 03 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND NW
MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...WRN OZARKS AND WRN GREAT
LAKES...
...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO
WRN AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL
ROCKIES TODAY. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 65 TO 80 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S F FROM ERN KS NEWD TO WRN
IL. THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS A BROAD AREA AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED IN ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO ERN KS AND NW MO
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO WHERE A MODERATE RISK
AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DOMINATE SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT
MAY BE GREATEST NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL WHERE THE
STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IF DISCRETE
ROTATING STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THEN AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 60 TO
70 KT AND BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...WIND
DAMAGE COULD BE WIDESPREAD FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO NW IL
ESPECIALLY IF A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS/WRN OZARKS...
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS THE SRN END OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CNTRL AND NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. IN SPITE OF
THE INSTABILITY...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN NE OK AND NW
AR DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWWD ALONG A COLD
FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR SWWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND NORTH TX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND NORTH TX AT 09Z TO 12Z
SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT.
..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/03/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
For those interested in virtual chasing, if you've watched any of the episodes of Storm Chasers on Discovery then you'll know Reed Timmer of TVN. You'll be able to follow him and other chasers via his website : http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen
Also keep an eye on the streams from chasers from Severe Studios : http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
I'd recommend looking out for Tyler Costantini on that page since he is one of the few chasers that provides audio along with video during chases and also sometimes does a 'live show' type format while chasing by taking questions via facebook/twitter etc.8
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Wheres the weather channel link for ther live video ?
Pulled it, the live broadcasting stopped. :mad:
Btw, Tyler is streaming now, with audio.
http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=tyler.costantini&uid=1570 -
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Tornado watch issued :
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
OTTUMWA IOWA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN IL.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...HART0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Storm went up fast.
In just a half hour!?... now thats a gun shot storm right ther !
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In just a half hour!?... now thats a gun shot storm right ther !
Verne Carlson has a really nice view of it on the TVN live page.
Tyler approaching it too http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=tyler.costantini&uid=1570 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Verne Carlson has a really nice view of it on the TVN live page.
yep ... have that up right now , it looks huge from where he is!
TOo bad theres no audio. 0 -
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Argh, I closed down Tylers stream and now can't reconnect to Severe Studios. :mad:
(Edit : found a working link on his site http://www.thestormpatrol.com/live/ )
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The Topeka Cell. In comparision to storms the we get, like for example the shower we got yesterday in leinster, would this be considerably bigger, or just more intense?... trying to get my head around it.
Haha, Reed has ther Video camera out!
A supercell compared to those showers yesterday?
As Jimmy McGee once said....:D
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No tornado reports at all from yesterday evening & overnight.
SPC has forecast another Moderate Risk for today again :
SPC AC 040619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
TN...MS...FAR SE AR...NW AL AND A SMALL PART OF SW KY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL TO SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...
CORRECTED FOR SQUALL-LINE TIMING IN THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO BIRMINGHAM
...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY AND
TN VALLEY...
...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY
AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS
MORNING FROM SE MO SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS A
BROAD AREA. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...ORGANIZING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE BEGINNING NEAR THE MS RIVER IN FAR ERN AR
LATE THIS MORNING AND DRIVING THE LINE ESEWD ACROSS WRN TN...SE AR
AND NRN MS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL MS...MIDDLE TN AND NW AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE WILL BE ON THE SEWD SIDE OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS WRN TN...NRN
TO CNTRL MS...NW AL...FAR SE AR AND FAR NE LA WHERE A MODERATE RISK
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL JETS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING
STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT
INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST SWWD ACROSS LA INTO SE TX BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS POTENTIAL MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL AND
SRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LINE COULD CONTINUE EWD INTO
SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED.
....OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZING IN ERN IND AND CNTRL KY
AROUND MIDDAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO 16C SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS OH...ERN KY INTO WV BY EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 04/04/2011
Might not be as many chasers out for this.0 -
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Couldnt stay awake last nite ha, hopefully more for 2nite tough!
Heres the GUSTNADO ( NOT TORNADO REED! ha ) that they seen yesterday...
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maquiladora wrote: »Latest Tornado Watch :
Moderate risk of EF2+ twisters on this one.
TWC still dont have there live stream back on ! 0 -
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Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!
Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.
Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)
Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.
After that would possibly be good for Southern Illinois on Sunday .
It's like May already out there
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Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!
Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.
Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)
Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.
After that would possibly be good for Southern Illinois on Sunday .
It's like May already out there
That sounds like Paul from NW?
Yeah interesting few days ahead, Slight Risks for Thursday & Friday and then a Severe Risk weekend.0 -
maquiladora wrote: »That sounds like Paul from NW?
Yeah interesting few days ahead, Slight Risks for Thursday & Friday and then a Severe Risk weekend.
Oh ye haha.... i forgot to put in the " ... " ....... haha
U on NW Maq?0 -
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Brilliant thread lads/ ladies Just back from tornadic weather meself. Brilliant enjoyed every bit of it.
Didnt get pics, cos I was going to buy camera over there, only couldnt get to the shops because of the bleedin weather Saw some magnificent forked lightning over the bay. Thunder was fierce, like there was a great battle of iron behemoths in the sky. Loved it. Sat on the balcony and watched every bit.
Id love to go for hurricane season next .
Heres a slideshow from the local news, if anyone interested.
http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2011/march/225230/Wednesdays-weather-causes-damage-throughout-area0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »SPC is going for a Moderate Risk on Sunday now, with a chance of strong tornadoes.
Woo! i hav sunday off work ......to ehhh.... STUDY! ha ... glad that i do my study... on the computer! haha 0 -
Buckle up....
SPC has issued a Moderate Risk for both today and tomorrow now. And it looks like there will be an upgrade to High Risk on Sunday......SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST SATURDAY WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...SEWD INTO SC.
And for Sunday.......TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO IA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NRN IA AND
SE MN AND MOVE INTO NRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TRACK
OF A SFC LOW AND ALONG A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR
THE WARM FRONT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 60 KT AND 0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350
M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN IA NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL WI BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS WI. SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN AND WRN IL WHERE THE
STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE THREAT
DURING THE EVENING.
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