100 Bets to broke NH Finale

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 1:40pm

Festival Antipost no2

Coral Cup: Barizan: He has been poor on unsuitable ground all year, but i had a feeling he would appear of a good mark on his favourite course on favourable ground. Trainer says he is flying at the moment compared to earlier on this year. And with a decent racing weight there is a very decent chance he'll never be caught.. He may run in the martin pipe but is near the top of the weights in that so id prefer if he ran here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Paddy Power & other Non runner No Bet...

longshotvalue · 09-03-2011 9:44am

aidankkk wrote: »

Festival Antipost no2

Coral Cup: Barizan: He has been poor on unsuitable ground all year, but i had a feeling he would appear of a good mark on his favourite course on favourable ground. Trainer says he is flying at the moment compared to earlier on this year. And with a decent racing weight there is a very decent chance he'll never be caught.. He may run in the martin pipe but is near the top of the weights in that so id prefer if he ran here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Paddy Power & other Non runner No Bet...

He is available at 66/1 Win coral Nrnb paying 1/4 12345..... Epic value

longshotvalue · 09-03-2011 5:16pm

Last minute, extra longshot

Navan 4:15 which is delayed a bit

Lasquini Du Moulin: Formally good horse who did show a lilking for decent ground. His second last run might give him a shot here stepped up in trip. worth a min bet at huge odds just in case he can show same form again. Betfair 100 win 16 place

.5 points win .5 point place

longshotvalue · 10-03-2011 1:47pm

Festival Antipost no3

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase Tue 2:40

Fair Along:I loved the look of his last run over fences where he just failed to haul down Noland and What a fiend. That form of his mark here of 148 and racing weight of 11:04 looks exceptional and he must have a great chance of placing at least. He has very good course form and is higher rater over hurdles

2 Points each way 25/1 Non runn No Bet Various

longshotvalue · 10-03-2011 3:04pm

Festival Antipost no4

Pertemps Final

Kayf Aramis: He is down 6 lbs from last years good 5th in this race, the stable is getting back into form and he is only carrying 10:07 at the moment. He shouldnt go up to much but of his mark he looks great value to place at least, as hes a tough consistant horse. His last run on suitable ground was decent in that the other runners were higher rated of level weights. Here good ground and light weight make placing in my view evens or better so 25/1 ew looks great value.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 NRNB

longshotvalue · 12-03-2011 11:18am

Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

Total Minefield here, but im going to give Drill Seargant another chance. Sods law would have it that the first time hes not backed he win. He was jumping well in his second last race when brought down, and he is only carrying 9:12 here with the claimer on who was giving him a confident ride then. Good ground here should help altough he has form on most ground. His last run was poor enough so well have to discount that, and it is possible that this was the target all along. One of the better flat horses to go jumping this year and really should stay out this stiff 2miles.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 12345 Bet365.

longshotvalue · 12-03-2011 12:04pm

1:55 Sandown

Owen Glendower: Not BGs choice but looks to have some of the best form in the race, and it cant have been that easy. Won on soft over 2m1, so this stiff 2 miles might just suit him, he looks a great Each Way prospect, and is carrying only 11:01 which looks fair enough. Overpriced

2 Points Each Way 16/1 EW various

longshotvalue · 13-03-2011 10:54am

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Im totally unsure about the principles in this race and it looks a poor renewal, but Giorgio Quercus does look overpriced. His last run against Dan Breen where he got the race in the stewarts room, showed a decent amount of grit and determination to get back at him after he got away a bit. To my mind he looks a better horse, and his previous performance on better ground was eyecatching even if it was a weaker race. I get the feeling 2miles on decent ground may give hima good chance of placeing and he looks overpriced mainly because the stable has Finans Rainbow as well. Dan breen is 14/1 and the selection is 33/1 which i cant make sense of.

1 Point EW 33/1

UrbanSea · 13-03-2011 2:07pm

I couldn't understand the price difference either aidan was looking at it this morning.

longshotvalue · 14-03-2011 7:31pm

Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase 5:15

Nadiya De La Vega : Very good form in beating Pepo Simo, in a decent novice chase earlier on this season, he did disappoint in a Grade 1 at Sandown since, but may have been eased down when his chance was gone. He is the choice of 3 decent changes from the Henderson Yard for Barry Geraghty, and looks well overpriced at 27 win 5.5 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 15-03-2011 10:51am

Champion Hurdle:

Going with value : Overturns run againt Binocular with both Starluck and Kyber Kin well behind , does put him in with a half decent chance of placing here. Especially now with Binocular gone. His last race would have to be ignored, but the ground has now come in his favour and there would be worse 50/1 shots. He may have a decent amount of these in trouble and could be had enough to catch if on his best form, and judging by the way he stayed on in the binocular race.

Worth a small each way bet

1 Point Each 50/1 Coral..

longshotvalue · 15-03-2011 8:47pm

[FONT=&quot]Day 2[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Already advised[/FONT]
RSA Chase 2:40 Wednesday
The Giant Bolster: He has a lot of what's required for this race. He has won on the course. He is a tough battler, has festival form (6th in the Neptune last year only 7 lengths behind Peddlers Cross) and came up the hill very well. He looks a dour stayer judging by his last run where he looked to be struggling a long way out, but really put his head down and grinded it out. He looks a great bet to place in particular, as he should be cut out for this type of race.
2 Points Each Way 25/1 generally (27 win 7.2 place betfair)

Now priced 19 win 4.7 place

Coral Cup 4:00
Aachen: Has had a long layoff but the trainer is well capable of getting him ready for this. He was a very decent novice and looks to be very well in here with a rating 131. He was 3rd in a very decent handicap race last year in Cheltenham off a higher mark, and looks great value. He’s also got a 5lbs claimer on and is carrying only 9:12. Currently 40/1 VC paying 12345

1 Point EW

Lightening Strike: From the same stable also back from a long layoff but has had a run this year to sharpen him up for this. As above the stable is well capable of getting one ready for this type of event, and his rating of 129 give him a superb chance considering he was rated at about 140 as a novice and over fences. Currently 33/1 VC paying 12345

1 Point EW

longshotvalue · 16-03-2011 9:32am

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle: 2:05

Aikman: Ive been looking for some english form in this race as the irish novices were really put in their place in the Supreme, and that line of form could be poor enough, altough this race does look much weaker. Aikman, beat minella class who was the tolworth winner last time out , and looked a tough horse in the process. He also has a very good bumper win on good to firm and really shouldnt be 3 times the price of minella class. He is overpriced at 30 win 7 place. So young looks the best prospect of the irish as he really could be anything.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue · 16-03-2011 10:07am

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

Chicago Grey: Im not sure how he isnt a strong fav here, he has superb course form with time for Rupert and had Quinz 8l back in 3rd who then went onto win the Racing Post Chase. This form is well clear of anything else in the race and 6.2 on betfair looks great value.. He was 7.2 last night.

3 Points Win

longshotvalue · 16-03-2011 10:29am

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Beyond: Trainer commented on his well being lately and that he expected a decent run. He has decent form on good ground, and may well be laid out for this race. He looks on a decent mark and overpriced 44 win 6.2 place. He is down to as low at 16/1 in some of the bookies

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 16-03-2011 10:03pm

Chicargo grey decent winner today thank god..

Day 3

Previously Advised

Pertemps Final 2:05
Kayf Aramis: He is down 6 lbs from last year's good 5th in this race, the stable is getting back into form and he is only carrying 10-07 at the moment. He shouldn't go up to much but of his mark he looks great value to place at least, as he's a tough consistent horse. His last run on unsuitable ground was decent in that the other runners were higher rated of level weights. Here good ground and light weight make placing in my view evens or better so looks great EW value.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 NRNB paying 12345 Still the same price

Byrne Group Plate 4:00
Piraya: [FONT=&quot]I’m going on gut feeling here, he has had a few decent runs this year notably when second to Woolcombe Folly first time out this year. He generally prefers good ground and possibly found the trip too far in the Racing Post Chase last time out. He also has been supported a couple of times this year and looks a very big price at[/FONT] 40/1 with corals

1 Point Each Way 40/1

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 4:40

[FONT=&quot]Khachaturian: [/FONT][FONT=&quot]He was 5th in this race last year, and is in here on a 3lbs lower mark this year, he looked to be running well until falling 2 out in a good race in Sandown. He has had a decent looking spin over hurdles last time out to hopefully get him ready for this and looks overpriced currently at 30 win 6.2 place[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point win 1 Point Place[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]World Hurdle 3:20[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Celestial Halo[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: Although he is not proven at this distance this year he has been progressively getting back to form this year since going back to hurdles. His last run was very decent and if he can handle the step up in trip , which he has always looked like he might, he is well overpriced here at 44 win 7.6 place. He is the 3rd highest rated horse in the race and is as tough as they come.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1 Point win 1 Point Place[/FONT]

longshotvalue · 17-03-2011 11:47am

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 4:40

Dance Island : He was 2nd last year to burton port in a very good novice in aintree, and has a decent run this year already. He was supported in the welsh national, altough didnt run too well. He should like the good ground and looks a very decent longshot, and may bit a bit unexposed compared to most of the field.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 paying 12345 various

Nulty · 17-03-2011 5:39pm

I had a nibble at his @ 60s on the machine but couldn't put too much faith in him. 60s is about right for what he owes me. I can't help following him though. Good ground saw him put his best performance in at Aintree - strange for a Turtle Island.

longshotvalue · 17-03-2011 9:02pm

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Barizan: I had him picked for the Coral Cup where he had a lower weight , but I can’t abandon him here despite the fact that he has top weight here. He has been poor on unsuitable ground all year, but I had a feeling he would appear off a good mark on his favourite course on favourable ground. Trainer says he has improved lately and anything like last years form will give him a shot here. The front runners have done well here so hopefully he can get a decent lead and stay there. Currently 38 win 8 place.

2 Point win 2 Points Place

Hollins: Going for a bit of a flyer here with this one, he should like the good ground and actually has some decent form at the course in his novice year, including midfield in the supreme last year. He has had his first Hurdle run this year lately and was a decent third behind Peddlers Cross, with Orsippis behind, on unsuitable soft ground. He is a big price here and might just have a squeak. Currently 44 win 8 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle:

Nearby: I’ve selected him a few times this year, but he just looks overpriced here. He ran up a very good sequence on good ground early this year but his last of these was only 3 lbs lower and really won well from a very good field. A reproduction of that on favourable going should put him in with a shout. He is currently 100 win and 14.5 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

I’m going to put in 1 point win bets on 2 other horses that are Good ground Horses and look to have a small chance at a huge price

Premier Dane: 6th in this race 2 years ago, and a half decent chaser, can be a bit of a monkey but is on a favourable mark and is worth a point at current odds of 130.

Tarkari: Good 3rd in the welsh champion hurdle, but was going really well until he fell in

the greatwood and could have a squeek at a massive price. Currently 130 win

1 Point Win Each.

longshotvalue · 18-03-2011 11:17am

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

Oiseau de Nuit: Very decent in graded races this year running well up to his current mark. 7lbs claimer back on and he has a very good record in handicaps, possible the class horse in the race, looks way overpriced at 40/1 EW.. One or 2 paying 5 places.

2 Points Each Way

longshotvalue · 18-03-2011 11:33am

Christie's Foxhunter Chase

Just amazing: Very decent young horse who loved good ground and there are some excuces for his poor enough win last time at taunton. A bit of a rush to get him qualified here and he looks great value at 12/1

3 Points win 12/1

longshotvalue · 18-03-2011 11:37am

Gold Cup

Kayto Star: Nothing really stands out in the race, there are problems with almost every runner, and i get the feeling that on good ground Kayto doesnt need to be at his best to win this. He now looks great value at 15/2. I dont fancy Denman or Imperial on the ground (altough if denman could go on it he does have the best form this year). Im not sure kempes is good enough and Long run is short enough.

3 Points Win 15/2

bamboozling · 18-03-2011 6:23pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

Oiseau de Nuit: Very decent in graded races this year running well up to his current mark. 7lbs claimer back on and he has a very good record in handicaps, possible the class horse in the race, looks way overpriced at 40/1 EW.. One or 2 paying 5 places.

2 Points Each Way

You absolute hero! Was down about 50 euro over the course of the festival and decided to put 5 euro on him for the craic! Unbelievable Jeff. Thanks so much.

thesandeman · 18-03-2011 6:27pm

Nice one :-D
I stuck a few bob on to finish off the week.

x PyRo · 18-03-2011 6:45pm

Class act Sir. Extremely well done.

longshotvalue · 18-03-2011 8:37pm

aidankk wrote: »

Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle:

Nearby: I’ve selected him a few times this year, but he just looks overpriced here. He ran up a very good sequence on good ground early this year but his last of these was only 3 lbs lower and really won well from a very good field. A reproduction of that on favourable going should put him in with a shout. He is currently 100 win and 14.5 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place Superb run out of him flew up the hill, ended up with 80/1 EW

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

Oiseau de Nuit: Very decent in graded races this year running well up to his current mark. 7lbs claimer back on and he has a very good record in handicaps, possible the class horse in the race, looks way overpriced at 40/1 EW.. One or 2 paying 5 places.

2 Points Each Way

Myself and my brother were the only people cheering in the last race, actually got 50/1EW on course.. Superb run cant wait to watch it back

ondarack · 19-03-2011 12:37pm

fair play...nice way to end the week!! the tips are much appreciated

longshotvalue · 20-03-2011 10:43am

Update After Cheltenhem

After 71 Bets

BSP +139.42 Points less Commission = Net BSP +125.15 Points
Advised +107.60 less Commission = + 94.92 Points

Nearby and Oiseau most of the profit

..

longshotvalue · 20-03-2011 2:41pm

2:55 Cork.

Shamiran: His run last time was impressive and he should be better over 2miles here. This race altough a decent handicap may not be as strong as his last race and he looks value at 7/1. I also got a bit of word that he may run well today, and is worth an each way bet, but hes not an each way price for me..

2 Points win 8.6 Betfair

longshotvalue · 20-03-2011 5:34pm

Lincon: 4:35: Very late but just noticed

Toraidhe: Very good record fresh winning and 3rd in this last year: looks overpriced at 18 on betfair. Ground conditions same as last year..

1 Point win

longshotvalue · 20-03-2011 5:43pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Lincon: 4:35: Very late but just noticed

Toraidhe: Very good record fresh winning and 3rd in this last year: looks overpriced at 18 on betfair. Ground conditions same as last year..

1 Point win

:(Lost by about 6"...

longshotvalue · 24-03-2011 3:36pm

Oscar Prairie 3:15 Chepstow.

I selected this one last time he ran and he appeared to ge going well when fell, he was well backed on both his last 2 runs and the trainer felt good ground would bring out the best in him. He does look ovrepriced in this poor enough race, and could well have everything in his favour here with 3 miles trip on good ground. He is the outstider of the field and doesnt look and less likely here than some of the shorter priced horses. His jumping has been poor enough so improvement is needed.

1 Point win 11/1 Ladbrokes

thesandeman · 24-03-2011 4:26pm

Very nice :-D

longshotvalue · 24-03-2011 4:28pm

thesandeman wrote: »

Very nice :-D

Thanks

, felt there was a bit of value there. He jumped better near the end here giving himself a chance..

ondarack · 24-03-2011 5:13pm

Top stuff ,only regret goin e-w! My bad

longshotvalue · 25-03-2011 3:37pm

2:40 Newbury.

Special Occasion: His last run really looked like the step up in trip will suit, has some decent form over hurdles last year and of this mark looks overpriced. nothing special in this race and he seems as likely as anything to have a chance of winning, if getting abck to for,

1 Point win 18.5 Betfair

longshotvalue · 26-03-2011 9:15am

Long Shot Saturday

1:15 Meyden Al Quoz Sprint
Invincible Ash: This race looks at the mercy of JJ The Jet Plane, but I’m not convinced at all that there is very much between a lot of these for the places. The selection has run well against Happy Dubai a few times this year and really there shouldn’t be much between them, and Invincible Ash is 3 times the price. He seems to have a reasonable draw, and has a good a chance as most of these who are lower priced. Currently 55 win 12.5 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

1:50 Meyden Godolphin Mile
Imbongi: He has been very good so far this year in his 2 runs without getting the run of the race on either occasion. If he can get closer to the pace earlier here he stands an excellent chance of using his strong finish. He won a similar race last year here before an excellent 3rd in the Duty Free, and looks overpriced here at 10.0

3 Points Win

3:45 Meyden Dubai Duty Free
Beethoven: On ratings he’s not that far of the best of these. Last year he ran consistently well in very good races, and if he can recover any of those runs he could stand a decent chance of getting involved here at a huge price. He’s worth a small bet. Currently 65 win 14 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

5:35 Meyden Dubai World Cup
Musir: He could easily have the 2nd best form in this race this year with his second to Twice Over, and has a really good record at the track with 3 wins and 2 seconds. He is in here at the moment as 8th Top price at 16.5 and really I would have his form more like 3-4 best of these, which makes that price look very decent and his place price of 4.6 look equally good. He looks the stable choice here and that in itself is big enough pointer to value.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue · 26-03-2011 9:48am

5:25 Newbury

Theatre Dance : This one has been backed a few times this year but generally dissapointed. The combination of Good Ground First time visor and step up in trip could easily be the answer today and he looks overpriced at 9.5 on Betfair. He had a very good run of 15 lbs higher on good ground over the course this time last year, and could be well in as a result.

2 Points Win

longshotvalue · 26-03-2011 9:54am

1:45 Newbury

Franklino: His second last run when a running on second to Local Hero on good ground makes his mark here look decent enough. The step up in trip should suit and he is getting a stone from most of the main contenders here. He was poor last run but has had a 2months break and hopefully can improve a bit here to take advantage of his mark.

2 Points Win 8/1

ondarack · 26-03-2011 10:17am

here's to a lucky day

. best of luck

longshotvalue · 26-03-2011 10:47am

3:50 Bangor

Simarian : Outsider of the field here, but really his form on good ground is much better than soft, and his last 2 runs have been on unsuitable ground. Today could easily suit him and he looks a bit of value at 16/1 Currently

1 Point win

4:20 Bangor

Ouzbeck: Rated 149 over fences and running to that mark, he is well in here with 132 over hurdles with the addition of a 7lbs claimer he is carrying only 11:5 in a race of this nature and really should run well. He look welloverpriced here at 32 win 8.2 place here

1 Points win 1 Points Place

longshotvalue · 28-03-2011 11:02am

Did end up that kind of day on saturday with a few close ones and fallers etc..

16:30 Towcester

Shes On The Case: The novice form last year looks very good considering the mark of 101 here. Shes had 2 runs this year close together over shorter trips and the step up in trip here with a more normal break of 3 weeks, may bring about a decent chance. She looks a bit overprice with Stan James at 16/1 as is shorter than that to come back to form here.

1 Point win 16/1 Stan James

longshotvalue · 29-03-2011 9:29pm

Catterick 2:50

Ive only got a few horses in my tracker that i never use, but Masked Dance is out tomorrow, of a mark 3 lbs less than his win over this trip last year , and his last run on the AW was very eyecathing over a trip too short of 6f, where he finished really well. Its possible he prefers Softer ground, but he has form on good and looks overpriced here at 11.5 on betfair.

2 Points win

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 2:58pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Catterick 2:50

Ive only got a few horses in my tracker that i never use, but Masked Dance is out tomorrow, of a mark 3 lbs less than his win over this trip last year , and his last run on the AW was very eyecathing over a trip too short of 6f, where he finished really well. Its possible he prefers Softer ground, but he has form on good and looks overpriced here at 11.5 on betfair.

2 Points win

Must make more use of the tracker for the flat season .................

thesandeman · 30-03-2011 3:00pm

Good man Aidan. Keep it up B-)

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 3:28pm

Lingfield 3:30

Bonnie Prince Blue: Late but he is too big on betfair and ran to to his mark here in his last run, this is an easier claimer. And not a lot of form anywhere. Looks 2 points 2 big at 7.4 on betfair

1 Point win

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 3:35pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Lingfield 3:30

Bonnie Prince Blue: Late but he is too big on betfair and ran to to his mark here in his last run, this is an easier claimer. And not a lot of form anywhere. Looks 2 points 2 big at 7.4 on betfair

1 Point win

sorry for the lateness of this one

thesandeman · 30-03-2011 3:39pm

Missed it. Not to worry.
Youre on B roll B-)

longshotvalue · 31-03-2011 1:05pm

3:35 Ludlow.

Troubletimestwo: Ive looked at him a couple of times this season as his mark has come down as he hasnt really done anything yet, but he is stepped up in trip here and gets what looks to be his best ground. He had some very good runs last year on good ground, including a good 5th in an ascot good ground 2mile Novice handicap of a mark of 123. He has looked a bit one paced and the step up in trip should suit, and he looked to be running better last time before falling at the last, and his mark here of 109 may have him involved. He looks overpriced on betfair to win at 19.5..

1 Point win

mike65 · 31-03-2011 1:10pm

Are you going to start a 2011 turf flat season thread?

100 Bets to broke NH Finale

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