What are the odds of winning the lotto twice?

J K · 10-03-2011 07:07PM

keane2097 wrote: »

This is another oft-used tactic in a losing battle, referred to as avoidance.

It really would make you look like less of an idiot if you just disengaged with the thread entirely.

We could always go back and have you explain why the phrase "mathematical literacy" sticks in your craw, as your efforts in this direction to date have been, shall we say, less than adequate?

I'd love to see if you had the same attitude in real life, face to face, to match your aggressive keyboard warrior style.
Tell me what kind tactic that is as well. A red herring or a strawman? Is it often used?
Here's a tactic for you to improve your english. Look up the word in a dictionary and you will find out that you are wrong.

Fremen · 10-03-2011 07:16PM

Here's a question for you Keane:

Given that the number 1 hasn't come up in the Irish lottery for a long time, what are the odds it will come up in an American lottery of the same format?

keane2097 · 10-03-2011 07:19PM

J K wrote: »

I'd love to see if you had the same attitude in real life, face to face, to match your aggressive keyboard warrior style.
Tell me what kind tactic that is as well. A red herring or a strawman? Is it often used?
Here's a tactic for you to improve your english. Look up the word in a dictionary and you will find out that you are wrong.

I doubt I would ever need to take this attitude in real life as it's extremely rare to come across someone displaying the level of pedantic douchebagery (to coin a phrase) you've shown here.

In my daily life, I don't come across people who get their jollies from trying to make other people look foolish, but if I did you can be certain I'd waste no time taking them down a peg or two just as I've done here.

For your enjoyment I've assorted a number of definitions of the word "literacy".

Please do take the time to point out why you're right on this one, I'm enjoying the diversion.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/literacy wrote:

lit·er·a·cy (ltr--s)
n.
1. The condition or quality of being literate, especially the ability to read and write. See Usage Note at literate.
2. The condition or quality of being knowledgeable in a particular subject or field: cultural literacy; biblical literacy.

http://www.answers.com/topic/literacy wrote:

American Heritage Dictionary:
lit·er·a·cy

(lĭt'ər-ə-sē)
n.
The condition or quality of being literate, especially the ability to read and write. See Usage Note at literate.
The condition or quality of being knowledgeable in a particular subject or field: cultural literacy; biblical literacy.

Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/literacy#ixzz1GDnty73V

http://www.bridgew.edu/Library/CAGS_Projects/LDUBIN/Definition%20of%20Literacy.htm wrote:

In broad terms, literacy is the ability to make and communicate meaning from and by the use of a variety of socially contextual symbols.

These two are possibly my favourite:

http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/eng/workplaceskills/oles/2009/glossary.shtml wrote:

Literacy: Literacy proficiency is the ability to understand and employ printed information in daily activities, at home, at work and in the community. The term literacy is generally understood to include prose comprehension, numeracy and document use.

http://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/services/public_libraries/living_learning_libraries/glossary.html wrote:

Literacy involves the integration of listening, speaking, reading, writing and critical thinking; it incorporates numeracy. It includes the cultural knowledge that enables the speaker, writer or reader to recognise and use language appropriate to different social situations.

keane2097 · 10-03-2011 07:20PM

Fremen wrote: »

Here's a question for you Keane:

Given that the number 1 hasn't come up in the Irish lottery for a long time, what are the odds it will come up in an American lottery of the same format?

I have no idea...

EDIT: I think I see what you're getting at - it's an interesting notion...

Fremen · 10-03-2011 07:31PM

Well, if the odds in the Irish lottery are changed by previous outcomes, then the odds in an American lottery must change too, because there's nothing particularly special about the fact that the lottery is Irish.

On the other hand, that would be crazy - it would mean that outcomes from lotteries all over the world affect the Irish lottery.

From this thought experiment, I think the only conclusion is that the odds/chance/whatever you want to call it don't change based on past results.

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 07:32PM

The Irish lotto is the Irish lotto.
American lotto has nothing to do with it, it's an entirely different drum.

keane2097 · 10-03-2011 07:34PM

Fremen wrote: »

Well, if the odds in the Irish lottery are changed by previous outcomes, then the odds in an American lottery must change too, because there's nothing particularly special about the fact that the lottery is Irish.

On the other hand, that would be crazy - it would mean that outcomes from lotteries all over the world affect the Irish lottery.

From this thought experiment, I think the only conclusion is that the odds/chance/whatever you want to call it don't change based on past results.

I'm not saying they do.

keane2097 wrote: »

I'm not saying it depends on the previous outcome either.

I'm just saying that, over a large sample, there will be periods where a ball doesn't come out for a long time, and periods when it will come up (relatively) frequently.

The periods of frequency don't depend on the barren periods or vice versa, but both will still occur.

Bruthal · 10-03-2011 07:36PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

The Irish lotto is the Irish lotto.
American lotto has nothing to do with it, it's an entirely different drum.

His point is a good one though, what if the number 1 has not come out in 6 months in the irish lotto, so it would be expected out soon?

Well what if you now get a loan of the drum from america and use 45 of their number balls, does this now reset the expectation of the long expected number 1 ball?

Blatter · 10-03-2011 07:38PM

J K wrote: »

I'd love to see if you had the same attitude in real life, face to face, to match your aggressive keyboard warrior style.
Tell me what kind tactic that is as well. A red herring or a strawman? Is it often used?
Here's a tactic for you to improve your english. Look up the word in a dictionary and you will find out that you are wrong.

Your embarrassing yourself now.

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 07:38PM

robbie7730 wrote: »

Well what if you now get a loan of the drum from america and use 45 of their number balls

Wouldn't happen.

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 07:40PM

keane2097 wrote: »

I'm just saying that, over a large sample, there will be periods where a ball doesn't come out for a long time, and periods when it will come up (relatively) frequently.

Naturally. That's what a truly random sequence will look like.

keane2097 · 10-03-2011 07:45PM

Pace2008 wrote: »

Naturally. That's what a truly random sequence will look like.

Exactly.

J K · 10-03-2011 07:45PM

keane2097 wrote: »

Please do take the time to point out why you're right on this one, I'm enjoying the diversion.

Cambridge Dictionaries Online:
mathematical literacy was not found
Did you spell it correctly? Here are some alternatives:

Oxford Dictionary Online:
Sorry, no search result for mathematical+literacy.

Did you mean:

J K · 10-03-2011 07:46PM

SOCCER4LIFE wrote: »

Your embarrassing yourself now.

Go fcuk yourself

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 07:47PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

Wouldn't happen.

It's a thought experiment as much as anything, but can you see what they're getting at?

What if the drum was damaged and needed to be changed? Would this reset the odds, chance, whatever? What if one or more of the balls went missing and needed to be replaced? IS the memory stored in the ball, or are the odds it tied to the number itself? In a country like America, where there are many lottery draws, are they independent of each other or linked in some way?

What exactly is the determining factor that affects the non-mathematical probability of the ball coming out?

keane2097 · 10-03-2011 07:48PM

J K wrote: »

Cambridge Dictionaries Online:
mathematical literacy was not found
Did you spell it correctly? Here are some alternatives:

Oxford Dictionary Online:
Sorry, no search result for mathematical+literacy.

Did you mean:

lolwat?

Cambridge Dictionaries Online wrote:

Results for mathematical numercy
mathematical numercy was not found
Did you spell it correctly? Here are some alternatives:
mathematically
mathematical
mathematicians
mathematician

You're brilliant

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 07:48PM

keane2097 wrote: »

Exactly.

This doesn't back up what you're saying. In a truly random sequence, there are no patterns.

You can add apophenia along with Gambler's Fallacy to the list of well-documented phenomena that explain the flaws in your thinking.

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 07:52PM

Pace2008 wrote: »

It's a thought experiment as much as anything, but can you see what they're getting at?

What if the drum was damaged and needed to be changed? Would this reset the odds, chance, whatever? What if one or more of the balls went missing and needed to be replaced? IS the memory stored in the ball, or are the odds it tied to the number itself? In a country like America, where there are many lottery draws, are they independent of each other or linked in some way?

What exactly is the determining factor that affects the non-mathematical probability of the ball coming out?

How is the drum going to get damaged?
Where is the ball going to go? For a stroll around Montrose?

Micky Dolenz · 10-03-2011 07:52PM

J K wrote: »

Go fcuk yourself

Banned

Blisterman · 10-03-2011 07:53PM

I'd imagine the people at the lotto have test runs to make sure the equipment is working before they do the actual the draw.

What happens if the number one comes out then?

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 07:59PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

How is the drum going to get damaged?
Where is the ball going to go? For a stroll around Montrose?

Are you trolling, or deliberately throwing red herrings about because you haven't a leg to stand on, or are you just completely missing the point?

OK, if, in some rash attempt to prove a point on the internet, I were to break into RTE studio, smash up the drum and steal a few of the balls (maybe the ones that were "due" according to Keane's Theory of Non-Mathematical Probability) and replace them with a couple I'd stroked from the States the preceding week, would that skew the outcome of the draw in any way?

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 08:01PM

The balls from the states look completely different to the ones here so it's a moot point.

Edit: No I am not trolling. Are you?

Bruthal · 10-03-2011 08:04PM

J K wrote: »

Go fcuk yourself

Keyboard warrior you mentioned?

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 08:05PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

The balls from the states look completely different to the ones here so it's a moot point.

Ah but you see, on my larcenous endeavours I broke into an arts and crafts shop to steal a few pots of paint and a fine brush, and I have a few friends who'd have no problem changing the superficial appearance of the ball.

I think it's very much to the point.

Bruthal · 10-03-2011 08:06PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

Wouldn't happen.

What wouldnt? The getting the loan of their drum, or it having any effect on the outcome?

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 08:11PM

I was referring to the getting of the drum.
No need obviously.

Pace2008 · 10-03-2011 08:13PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

I was referring to the getting of the drum.
No need obviously.

It's a hypothetical question. Whether or not it's likely to happen is irrelevant.

Were it to happen, would it affect the outcome?

Jesus Wept · 10-03-2011 08:15PM

I'm not sure, it might be an interesting experiment.

Fremen · 10-03-2011 08:22PM

The-Rigger wrote: »

Wouldn't happen.

It's not impossible. If it did, what would happen?

Bruthal · 10-03-2011 08:24PM

Well my point was like Fremen suggested, that if number 1 had not come out in months, that using the american drum instead of ours, with 45 numbers, the 1 ball would still have the same chance of appearing, and also if they just used the usual drum.

On a slightly different question though, the set of numbers that will come out this sat though, would it be the same set that comes out if they swap drums before the draw, or if they have the draw 10 minutes late? No way of telling, but any ideas on that?

What are the odds of winning the lotto twice?

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