Wicklow

iPlop · 21-02-2011 03:00PM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

So anyone any idea which way the seats will go? Am finding it very perplexing as the vote apart from Timmins and Harris seem to be going all over the place.

I think Donnelly and Brady are a shoe in ,I have no idea after that.There are some that I have talked to that are voting for Roche and Timmins because they always have (they say they're nice lads

) and then there's some that have just abandoned the mainstream parties altogether ,it's hard one to call tbh

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 03:03PM

Sink The Banana wrote: »

I think Donnelly and Brady are a shoe in ,I have no idea after that.There are some that I have talked to that are voting for Roche and Timmins because they always have (they say they're nice lads) and then there's some that have just abandoned the mainstream parties altogether ,it's hard one to call tbh

Donelly and Brady? Think they will be fighting for the 5th seat but cant see them getting 1 each

iPlop · 21-02-2011 03:10PM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

Donelly and Brady? Think they will be fighting for the 5th seat but cant see them getting 1 each

I don't know about that tbh ,just from talking to neighbors friends and family ,the support for these two guys is big.But then again when people get to the ballot box they could change their mind.Timmins will get a seat ,everyone up here knows him personally a lot will vote for him ,like wise with Ferris

ElaElaElano · 21-02-2011 03:18PM

Why didn't People Before Profit/ULA run any candidates in Wicklow? There's no serious left-wing candidates, unless you count Brady (which I don't).

I know Carmel McKenna ran in 2007 and was a complete disaster, but surely either them or the Socialist Party could have run someone?

spank_inferno · 21-02-2011 03:50PM

Sink The Banana wrote: »

I think Donnelly and Brady are a shoe in.

From what I can see its only the Bray/Greystones area that is getting horny for Donnelly, down in regular Wicklow he has little presence.

Brady however will get some votes from every urban centre.
He will go further but neither will get a seat.

I'm calling it as follows

3 x FG
1 x Lab
1 x FF

I think Dick Roche will sneak in in last place, without reaching the quota, because from 4th to 9th place the vote will be very close.

Ivan Yeates predicted Conal Kavanagh to get a seat because of his Wicklow town base.
He will be close, but I think Roche will secure enough rural vote/transfers to sneak it.

Exciting though!

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 04:15PM

spank_inferno wrote: »

From what I can see its only the Bray/Greystones area that is getting horny for Donnelly, down in regular Wicklow he has little presence.

Brady however will get some votes from every urban centre.
He will go further but neither will get a seat.

I'm calling it as follows

3 x FG
1 x Lab
1 x FF

I think Dick Roche will sneak in in last place, without reaching the quota, because from 4th to 9th place the vote will be very close.

Ivan Yeates predicted Conal Kavanagh to get a seat because of his Wicklow town base.
He will be close, but I think Roche will secure enough rural vote/transfers to sneak it.

Exciting though!

I think there will be a dogfight for last 2 seats, Kavanagh doesnt seem to be getting much aid from his 2 running mates so I think Ferris will get 1st labour seat and fortune will be fighting fopr last seat. Timmins, Ferris and Harris will probably get first 3 seats.
Probably Donnely, Brady, Fortune, Doyle and Roche fighting for last 2 seats with Kavanagh giving Fortune a chance through his elimination.

I think Doyle might swing the 4th seat and the last one is anyones but favour Fortune and Donnely over Roche

spank_inferno · 21-02-2011 04:29PM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

I think there will be a dogfight for last 2 seats, Kavanagh doesnt seem to be getting much aid from his 2 running mates so I think Ferris will get 1st labour seat and fortune will be fighting fopr last seat. Timmins, Ferris and Harris will probably get first 3 seats.
Probably Donnely, Brady, Fortune, Doyle and Roche fighting for last 2 seats with Kavanagh giving Fortune a chance through his elimination.

I think Doyle might swing the 4th seat and the last one is anyones but favour Fortune and Donnely over Roche

I'd go along with that, and the margins are very thin for the 4th & 5th seats.

This time though, Dick Roche has the North Wicklow FF vote to himself.
Turncoat Behan will get some votes, but the die-hard FF voters will not forgive him for abandoning the party

The FF running mate, Pat Fitzgerald is not well liked either.

So thats my angle on why 'Ol' Big Head' will get re-elected :pac:

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 04:34PM

spank_inferno wrote: »

I'd go along with that, and the margins are very thin for the 4th & 5th seats.

This time though, Dick Roche has the North Wicklow FF vote to himself.
Turncoat Behan will get some votes, but the die-hard FF voters will not forgive him for abandoning the party

The FF running mate, Pat Fitzgerald is not well liked either.

So thats my angle on why 'Ol' Big Head' will get re-elected :pac:

Maybe but it will be the 5th seat and the margins will be very tight, will greatly depend on the order of eliminations

iPlop · 21-02-2011 04:58PM

spank_inferno wrote: »

I think Dick Roche will sneak in in last place, without reaching the quota, because from 4th to 9th place the vote will be very close.

Ivan Yeates predicted Conal Kavanagh to get a seat because of his Wicklow town base.
He will be close, but I think Roche will secure enough rural vote/transfers to sneak it.

Exciting though!

Roche and Timmins both longstanding in Blessington will share the North Wicklow vote between them ,they have no one to worry about up here really ,people here either like Billy or Dick and to a lesser extent Ferris

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 05:24PM

Sink The Banana wrote: »

Roche and Timmins both longstanding in Blessington will share the North Wicklow vote between them ,they have no one to worry about up here really ,people here either like Billy or Dick and to a lesser extent Ferris

Yes but Roche might struggle with the Collapse in FF vote

iPlop · 21-02-2011 05:34PM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

Yes but Roche might struggle with the Collapse in FF vote

As I said earlier there has been some people that I have talked to that are abandoning the main stream parties altogether like myself ,but Billy and Dick still have a lot of support here ,people feel they know them personally and some feel they have done a lot for the area

Auctionmcd · 21-02-2011 08:05PM

Sink The Banana wrote: »

As I said earlier there has been some people that I have talked to that are abandoning the main stream parties altogether like myself ,but Billy and Dick still have a lot of support here ,people feel they know them personally and some feel they have done a lot for the area

Well I know enough about both to avoid them like the plague, but wont stop them getting elected

Dannygirl · 21-02-2011 08:23PM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

So anyone any idea which way the seats will go? Am finding it very perplexing as the vote apart from Timmins and Harris seem to be going all over the place.

I'm hoping Donnelly will get in. I saw him at a public meeting in Bray and I was very impressed. He seems to have some very good ideas, and the qualifications to back them up. He's on Frontline tonight.

miseagustusa · 21-02-2011 08:58PM

why are people urging people 2 vote for candidates who have already been in power and got us in2 this mess in the 1st place????? in my opinion they are all corrupt so why vote them back in?????

i myself am voting for a totally new crop of TD's, out with the old in with the new!!!!!!

party politics have run there course and run this country to the ground!!!!!

an even spread across the board would be ideal!!!! no 1 has total control then

iPlop · 21-02-2011 09:05PM

miseagustusa wrote: »

why are people urging people 2 vote for candidates who have already been in power and got us in2 this mess in the 1st place????? in my opinion they are all corrupt so why vote them back in?????

i myself am voting for a totally new crop of TD's, out with the old in with the new!!!!!!

party politics have run there course and run this country to the ground!!!!!

an even spread across the board would be ideal!!!! no 1 has total control then

Who's urging people to vote them back in?

The Volt · 21-02-2011 09:37PM

I have to say from knocking on doors for Labour that people many have insisted they don't want another Billy, all he has done for West Wicklow is turn Glending into a dump, I think he may get squeezed out by Doyle and Harris, leaving 2 FG in Wicklow as before.

Roche was out in Blessington yesterday just before I was and people almost ran me off their property because they thought I was FF.

If this resentment is shown on the doors then I would be predicting:
Doyle
Ferris
Harris
Behan
Fortune

edanto · 21-02-2011 10:16PM

Steven Donnelly is on Front Line right now!

The Volt · 21-02-2011 10:19PM

edanto wrote: »

Steven Donnelly is on Front Line right now!

He's a one-trick pony. He won't get elected thankfully.

21-02-2011 10:19PM

For fg vote management Timmins has an election office in Arklow so is looking for the fg no 1's from there.

I wouldn't discount Donnelly by the way,he had a very busy town hall style meeting in arklow with mcwilliams the other day.

I'd also trend towards 3 fg in wicklow or 2 fg 2 labour with a dog fight for the last one in either case.
3 fg seems more logical though with the swing in that direction and the fall off in labour.

Behan was on the front line recently talking lovingly of how ff is such a cultural rock in irish society and he voted for the government most of the time since he "lost" the whip.
If elected he'll be back into ff in jig time.
Behan saying he's an independent is a scam.He's fianna fail and I hope people remember that at the polls.

miseagustusa · 21-02-2011 10:25PM

Sink The Banana wrote: »

Who's urging people to vote them back in?

well mayb not urging, but putting der points forward about d current TD's who have got us in2 this situation!!!!

edanto · 21-02-2011 10:38PM

Voltwad wrote: »

He's a one-trick pony.

That's very lazy, clearly you haven't even read his website. He's very well qualified for the job.

The Volt · 21-02-2011 10:41PM

edanto wrote: »

That's very lazy, clearly you haven't even read his website. He's very well qualified for the job.

For what job? Independents can make all sorts of statements on their websites because they know that the likelyhood of them having to come good on any of them is slim to none. He's stated he'd align himself to FG in government. Why not just run for FG then? A right-wing independent ready to play sucker to the blueshirts does not represent any change.

21-02-2011 10:54PM

blueshirts is a very yesterday term voltwad.

This constituency will be fascinating.It could do anything to be honest.

Dannygirl · 21-02-2011 10:57PM

Voltwad wrote: »

He's a one-trick pony. He won't get elected thankfully.

He's far from a one trick pony, the proof of that is out there, if you're bothered to find it.
Hopefully for all of us he will get elected.

edanto · 22-02-2011 08:15AM

Voltwad wrote: »

For what job? Independents can make all sorts of statements on their websites because they know that the likelyhood of them having to come good on any of them is slim to none. He's stated he'd align himself to FG in government.

Qualified for the job as TD! He's got a great CV, a masters in public administration, trained in how to negotiate with the IMF, experience of public sector reform aroiund the world working with McKinsey.

As for saying he'd align himself with FG, I didnt read that myself, but I'll take your word for it. i hope you're not attempting to use that as a slur though, sure hasn't your own party, and FF, both said they'd align with FG.

Stephen is a practical democrat and I guess he would align himself with a government if it meant Wicklow people having professional national representation. On the other hand, if he's in opposition, you can be sure the government won't be let away with anything and Wicklow people will have someone they can trust to professionally analyse events on their behalf.

On some issues he's left wing, on others he's right, you'd have to read through the website to know all his policies.

Auctionmcd · 22-02-2011 10:52AM

I like Stephen Donnelly but he comes across as an Independant with leaning towards the right. Unfortunately I think Independants whilst they have influence at local level do not have any real clout at National level so I wont be voting for him.
I saw some people saying Billy Timmins might be in trouble, thats ridiculous, he is one of the safest bets to take the first or second seat, not because he is any good but rather that the voters have a sheep mentality and will follow the popular trends and reactive votes for FG will go to the recognised faces. (He is linked to many scandals, well at least 2 that I know of)
Simon Harris will also get a seat but I am finding it very difficult to get anything tangible on him as he seems to have been concentrating on Local council expenses issues and nothing else and it seems impossible to determine if he actually lived up to his promises due to lack of transparency on Councillors expenses.
Anne Ferris is another who will probably get a seat but she is also being scandalised over moal issues.
Dick Roche may hold a seat despite the abyssmal record FF have had whilst in government.
John Brady may do well but SF are a poor alternative at the moment and until they can remove the ghosts of the past and build up half decent policies I could not vote for him.
Conal Kavanagh seems to be struggling so I think he may lose out anyway. Dont know much more about him. His father was decent guy.
Fortune might be a dark horse but I think he may be employing a dirty poster campaign in West Wicklow but that may also apply to Timmins.
Joe Behan is FF whether he says so in this campaign or not.
Nicky Kelly is one of the most controversial candidate and it is apparent to me he is there just to disrupt the Labour vote. Again he has a scandalous past.
Pat Fitzgerald has the FF tag to overcome and I cant see how he can get in unless the FF faithful come back in force.
Andrew Doyle is probably fighting for a seat and depending on the flow to FG he may get in.

So where my vote will go is still undecided.

spank_inferno · 22-02-2011 11:17AM

Auctionmcd wrote: »

Conal Kavanagh seems to be struggling so I think he may lose out anyway. Dont know much more about him.

Conal must be an incredible negotiator.

As a Co Councillor, he managed to sell a property belonging to him to the council for use as social housing.

It wasn't that long ago, and *somehow* managed to secure himself a price well in excess of the market value of neighbouring properties.

housing crash... what housing crash! :rolleyes:

(and that will lose him votes in Wicklow town)

In person though he is a very nice guy

Auctionmcd · 22-02-2011 12:33PM

spank_inferno wrote: »

Conal must be an incredible negotiator.

As a Co Councillor, he managed to sell a property belonging to him to the council for use as social housing.

It wasn't that long ago, and *somehow* managed to secure himself a price well in excess of the market value of neighbouring properties.

housing crash... what housing crash! :rolleyes:

(and that will lose him votes in Wicklow town)

In person though he is a very nice guy

Really? Can you supply proof of that as I would like to know as much as I can about all the candidates.

edanto · 22-02-2011 12:47PM

spank_inferno wrote: »

As a Co Councillor, he managed to sell a property belonging to him to the council for use as social housing.

It wasn't that long ago, and *somehow* managed to secure himself a price well in excess of the market value of neighbouring properties.

That is a fairly stunning claim, and I suppose in the intensity of the campaign it would be best to back it up with something like a link to a newspaper article or some council minutes.

Auctionmcd · 22-02-2011 12:58PM

edanto wrote: »

That is a fairly stunning claim, and I suppose in the intensity of the campaign it would be best to back it up with something like a link to a newspaper article or some council minutes.

Would be helpful really, some facts would help me decide but as it is I think Kavanagh will get something from me, not necessarily a number 1 but something.

Wicklow

Comments