Fianna Fáil Leadership Challenge Underway

the groutch · 13-01-2011 11:59AM

dfbemt wrote: »

However, Hanafin or Andrews have strongly indicated that one of them will move in an effort to retain their seat, which one is sure to lose when Dun Laoghaire becomes a 4 seater.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/hanafin-and-andrews-face-each-other-in-tight-battle-2491098.html

Dun Laoghaire is going to be the true battle royal; with Hanafin, Andrews, Bacik, Cuffe, Boyd Barrett and whatever FG candidates all fighting for 3 seats (Gilmore being the only safe seat)

sceptre · 13-01-2011 12:02PM

Rubik. wrote: »

Newstalk didn't say anything other than there could be a heave. Fionnon Sheenan went further and said one was likely but didn't seem to have any inside information. The political party meeting is at midday.

So no-one really knows anything and there's just a rumour circle founded on supposition where everyone in news media feels they have to say something vague in case something happens and they hadn't said anything (even something vague) about it when their competitors had. Hey, if something happens, they'll look like they knew something, right?

Not really a shining moment for the national political news media... I'm off to find a seagull who will know as much as the pundits but won't be pretending.

Sierra Oscar · 13-01-2011 12:14PM

jmayo wrote: »

Ah fionnan sheehan political editor of the indo or sindo.
Actually he has more inside information than most since married to career ffer.

Folks please take anything this gent says with a grain of salt.
Note his missus, averil power, happens to have been a political/policy advisor (whatever it is called gives her salary of circa 100,000 euro a year) for the last 8/9 years to one mary hannafin.

http://www.averilpower.ie/?page_id=2

She also ran in local elections as county council candidate in North Dublin and was majorily involved in ff in Trinity.

Thus he may be leaking stories that are coming from hanafin.

As someone who has come in contact with Fionnan on more than one occasion I can assure you that his views are independent of his wife's, nor would he be acting as some sort of FF agent! However you do raise an interesting point indeed about perhaps him being closer to FF to know what is going on then others considering his wife's position.

Anyway, he was on with Pat Kenny a few minutes ago outlining that he believes something is up.

Dempo1 · 13-01-2011 12:16PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The rumour doing the rounds at the moment is that a certain faction within FF has captured 18 signatures amongst the PP to launch a leadership challenge, meaning a challenge will be launched during a meeting of the PP tomorrow.

Yes indeed, just listened to Michael O Regan from the Irish Times on newstalk, he's pretty adamant something is a foot, hopefully its up cowens arse!

Sir Oxman · 13-01-2011 12:18PM

The FF PP meeting has been put back to 3pm now.
*Fingers crossed for an election being called if Cowen gets the boot*

13-01-2011 12:21PM

"Cowen's position under threat ahead of FF meeting" - Irish Times. Reportage is beginning to come through now, however slowly.

ISAW · 13-01-2011 12:22PM

dfbemt wrote: »

Thankfully for Brennan, Tom Kitt is stepping down and will not contest GE 2011. However, Hanafin or Andrews have strongly indicated that one of them will move in an effort to retain their seat, which one is sure to lose when Dun Laoghaire becomes a 4 seater.

and your source of "strong indication" is?
Funny how they already ran and got selected then isn't it?
http://www.politics.ie/dublin/147777-dun-laoghaire-fianna-fail-selection-tonight-barry-andrews-mary-hanafin-selected.html

Brennan will not get in on the 1st count or 2nd and FF will not draw transfers. The result will definitely be 2 x FG, 1 x Lab. the 4th seat will be a FG / Lab fight and the fifth will see Hanafin / Andrews, Brennan, Eamon Ryan in a battle royal.

You have a number of facts in error.

You have already been told about Maria Corrigan in this thread who is capable of pulliing thousands of votes. I have no idea if Brennan is running or not but assuming both run they will certainly transfer.

I cant see FF getting less than 4000 votes so the idea of fighting for the fifth seat is difficult to take. FG may probably get two quotas but FF will get as much a Labour. This means FF get the third or fourth seat and fight for the fifth.

I predict that if Hanafin or Andrews arrive that Brennan will not get elected. He has done nothing for the community. In May 2009 he states 'I am fully committed to representing the local constituents' and when he doesn't get elected we hear no more from him. Full committed my arse.

We don't know if he is even running yet

SB-08 · 13-01-2011 12:38PM

So it's possible that Clowen will resign as FF leader but remain as Taoiseach? And if the election still takes place late March so the Finance Bill is passed what will the dynamics of the Dail be? Will Cowen just not bother to attend and just let Lenny/Martin or Hannifan carry on? Or will he and the next FF leader sit next to eachother for the next month +, with them doing leaders questions while he just sits there? .

Sully · 13-01-2011 12:42PM

Speculation now Cowen isn't attending the PP meeting today, and will resign.

SB-08 · 13-01-2011 12:42PM

Rumors on P.IE suggest Cowen has now resigned and will not be attending the PP meeting. Statement expected shortly. Hopefully true, and will mean a snap GE.

Riskymove · 13-01-2011 12:44PM

SB-08 wrote: »

Hopefully true, and will mean a snap GE.

if its just FF leadership then unlikely

BlaasForRafa · 13-01-2011 12:52PM

ISAW wrote: »

Actaully Dublin South was a FG guy who resigned if I recall correctly. So ther was a by election which cost the government a seat and the FG guy who won the seat resigned six months later. Dinegal has had a by election so the only valid example is Waterford. If there was a by election in Waterford now and no existing FF candidate ran it would give the new candidate hyge publicity and probably secure that FF candidate the seat in a general election so it isn't in the opposition's interest to do this.

There is not a hope in hell of an FF candidate being elected in a Waterford by-election if one was to be held.

Former TD Ollie Wilkinson is a busted flush and they have no young gun coming up to take his place, they were annihilated in the last city and county council elections.

Sitting TD Brendan Kenneally is a useless waste of space and will be kicked out on his hole in the next election where he won't be able to claim outrageously high levels of expenses any more.

The Volt · 13-01-2011 12:55PM

Lol they will hang on to power for as long as they can. They'll get rid of Cowen then they will be "new" FF with no ties to the old.

And as sure as the Pope ****s in the woods, people will vote for them.

13-01-2011 01:00PM

Riskymove wrote: »

if its just FF leadership then unlikely

Well it will beacuse that new leader will certainly not have a mandate to be Taoiseach

Lowery is saying he will not support a new Taoiseach, saying 'if Fianna Fáil want a new Taoiseach, they should call an election.'

The game is up

johngalway · 13-01-2011 01:15PM

Dear Brian,

Please stay. As Fianna Fail leader I think you're doing an excellent job.

Regards,

John (who'll be voting FG!).

mike65 · 13-01-2011 01:17PM

Anyone hear Mary Hanafin (?) fail to back Cowen three times during a radio interview yeaterday? She is the one who could do most to rescue something for FF. Is she the one who is behind this?

spider guardian · 13-01-2011 01:19PM

This is just the culmination of the whole sorry mess, the best Cowen could have hoped for was to be Taoiseach up to the handover to the new government.

The only real issue here for FF is whether they want to trigger an early election, which replacing cowen will set in motion. Either way they are in for a long cold stint in opposition.

zig · 13-01-2011 01:35PM

when the golf story first emerged my biggest fear was that it would be ignored and brushed away even by the media.
Delighted with its come to!!
Doesnt even matter whether its Cowen as leader or someone else, this whole thing is destroying Fianna Fail.

Dyr · 13-01-2011 01:37PM

No doubt there will be a younger generation of opportunists in fianna fail who will see the decimation of the old guard in an election as a chance to give them a premature boost into senior positions within the party. Jackals the lot of 'em

jank · 13-01-2011 01:37PM

So he can lost the leadership of the party but not the leadership of the country. How does that work? How long could they hold out then?

dfbemt · 13-01-2011 01:40PM

Is he gone ??????????????????????

Twitter gone into overdive, radio stations lighting up, reports starating to come through

bmaxi · 13-01-2011 01:41PM

If this resignation materialises, how, with two leaders forced out under a cloud, in the space of three years, could FF possibly present themselves to the electorate as an acceptable government.
Hopefully, the years of lies, theft and corruption are coming to an end but it's up to us as an electorate to ensure the new kids on the block don't go down the same path. Reform of the political sector is way overdue and we must demand it is carried out.

zig · 13-01-2011 01:41PM

dfbemt wrote: »

Is he gone ??????????????????????

Twitter gone into overdive, radio stations lighting up, reports starating to come through

probably have to wait till 3.

JP Liz V1 · 13-01-2011 01:54PM

jank wrote: »

So he can lost the leadership of the party but not the leadership of the country. How does that work? How long could they hold out then?

Yes I dont get that will he still be Taoiseach

dfbemt · 13-01-2011 01:55PM

RTE upping things.

Lowry will not vote with govt if Cowen goes.

Joe Duffy has FF party members saying Cowen to go.

This is it. Snap GE to come.

dfbemt · 13-01-2011 02:03PM

Friend close to a source in Leinster House (I know, I know) is telling me that Cowen has gone to ground.

Talk is of 'leave or heave'.

Joe Duffy is ruining this moment

dfbemt · 13-01-2011 02:06PM

Denis Naughten TD tweeting it

http://twitter.com/DenisNaughten

db · 13-01-2011 02:07PM

Who will have the news first - boards or twitter?

Uriel. · 13-01-2011 02:08PM

I'd be surprised if Cowen resigned in advance of any vote on his confidence to be honest.

He would be putting a very big vote of no confidence in himself if he were to do that, assuming he's going to be running for re-election in Offaly.

Sully · 13-01-2011 02:16PM

I cant see Fianna Fail letting anyone in their party cause the party to fall this early. Cowen wont resign completely, and you wont see a fall in the government this evening. They wont let it happen.

Odds are Cowen will either stay on as caretaker, or battle it out.

Fianna Fáil Leadership Challenge Underway

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