Bailout Amounts to €85 Billion

Dotsie~tmp · 24-11-2010 01:09AM

Its never too late. These agreements can be thrown in the bin at any time when a people mandate it. They just have to understand there are consequences that we must deal with. Right now the cure seems worse than the disease.

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 01:10AM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Perhaps folk should wait until its officially announced with all the relevant detail before getting hysterical over conjecture. Didn't TV3 report last night that Cowan was heading to the park to get the dail dissolved.

Nope, they didn't. They speculated that heading to the Park was one of the potential outcomes of the FF ministerial meeting. And that was true, there are reports that some ministers favoured calling an election.

Dotsie~tmp · 24-11-2010 01:15AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

We can renege on the guarantee - but the guarantee isn't what's crippling us. It's the recapitalisation of the banks, which are now effectively state-owned.

The best option there would be the Icelandic option - move the good assets and domestic business over, let the remains collapse.

cordially,
Scofflaw

That might precipitate a falling out with the UK? Neither of us need that.

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:16AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Nope, they didn't. They speculated that heading to the Park was one of the potential outcomes of the FF ministerial meeting. And that was true, there are reports that some ministers favoured calling an election.

You'll not know for definite until one of these hounds breaks cover and writes their memoirs in a few years time. But that certainly seems to have been the case in my understanding. There was more than one looking to go last night.

munzab · 24-11-2010 01:23AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Unless they know everything that's involved, that's not that much use - and is "hyped and over the top" commentary really what's needed in a "fraught and tense" situation?

Even the back of the envelope figures about €200bn divided by 2m taxpayers are utterly meaningless.

Catastrophe TV is good TV - it's not even slightly likely to be accurate, though. The rate isn't known yet, and people are doing calculations with figures pulled out of their trousers and waving them around shouting "doomed!". Meh.

slightly despairing,
Scofflaw

i think a bit of scaring is needed at this point.

2 years ago we heard it was going to be "the smallest bank bailout ever". now there is a chance of even possibly bringing down europe with us. reassurance in the past by that government that they knew what they were doing and all was cool, get back to work and roll in it with ur buddies has led us to where we are.

might as well be pessimistic and get good news than being an optimist and get shot in the backside while reversing into it.

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 01:37AM

munzab wrote: »

i think a bit of scaring is needed at this point.

2 years ago we heard it was going to be "the smallest bank bailout ever". now there is a chance of even possibly bringing down europe with us. reassurance in the past by that government that they knew what they were doing and all was cool, get back to work and roll in it with ur buddies has led us to where we are.

might as well be pessimistic and get good news than being an optimist and get shot in the backside while reversing into it.

The problem is that the scary stuff isn't useful - we're not talking about war here. In a year's time, when the bailout and the rest have fed into the Budgets, you can take stock - because for most of us, that's when things will actually have an impact. In the meantime, unless one is actually heavily invested in Irish sovereign debt or bank shares, this is all effectively meaningless - fun to speculate on, but absolutely not worth panicking over - the IMF aren't going to come to your house to demand an immediate payment.

Seriously, what is it supposed to achieve?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 01:39AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Unless they know everything that's involved, that's not that much use - and is "hyped and over the top" commentary really what's needed in a "fraught and tense" situation?

Even the back of the envelope figures about €200bn divided by 2m taxpayers are utterly meaningless.

Catastrophe TV is good TV - it's not even slightly likely to be accurate, though. The rate isn't known yet, and people are doing calculations with figures pulled out of their trousers and waving them around shouting "doomed!". Meh.

slightly despairing,
Scofflaw

Problem is no one knows whats going on. Government representatives are on the news saying no bailout talks, then its only technical talks. within days it a bailout by everyone IMF/EU/Sweden/UK

I would love to see couple of hours debate with economists going over the options individually but we arent getting anywhere near it. Will take VinB in absence of anything better

hinault · 24-11-2010 01:41AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

The problem is that the scary stuff isn't useful - we're not talking about war here. In a year's time, when the bailout and the rest have fed into the Budgets, you can take stock - because for most of us, that's when things will actually have an impact. In the meantime, unless one is actually heavily invested in Irish sovereign debt or bank shares, this is all effectively meaningless - fun to speculate on, but absolutely not worth panicking over - the IMF aren't going to come to your house to demand an immediate payment.

Seriously, what is it supposed to achieve?

cordially,
Scofflaw

To a point, true.

IMF/ECB are not going to be knocking at individual houses demanding repayment.

The Irish State will do it for them, in the form of substantial increases in taxes/cutting of public services which will effect the life of every individual in this State and in all probability their childrens adult life as well.

€200 billion plus debt is huge.

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 01:43AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

The problem is that the scary stuff isn't useful - we're not talking about war here. In a year's time, when the bailout and the rest have fed into the Budgets, you can take stock - because for most of us, that's when things will actually have an impact. In the meantime, unless one is actually heavily invested in Irish sovereign debt or bank shares, this is all effectively meaningless - fun to speculate on, but absolutely not worth panicking over - the IMF aren't going to come to your house to demand an immediate payment.

Seriously, what is it supposed to achieve?

cordially,
Scofflaw

dont you think it will impact on jobs, welfare, houses etc and the wider economy?

What if we default or the banks go the way of Iceland. I was thinking this would impact everyone?

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 02:00AM

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

dont you think it will impact on jobs, welfare, houses etc and the wider economy?

What if we default or the banks go the way of Iceland. I was thinking this would impact everyone?

Any of the options now available to us will impact jobs, welfare, house prices, taxes, services, everything - and none of the options are great. We know that, and we knew that this time last year. We knew that a budget was coming up that aimed to cut €6bn off the state deficit, and we knew that the banks were swallowing money.

What we don't know is how any of this works out in terms of impact on us particularly. We won't know that until the bailout, the banks, a default, or whatever is factored into the taxes we pay, the services we receive, the value of our house, and the chances of getting a job - and that will take a couple of years. Panic might be appropriate if there was an army landing around our coast with the intention of exterminating the Irish. It's completely and utterly useless here, because we're not talking about fleeing down the road with your Grandad in a hand cart - we're talking about looking at the long-term impact, and deciding on how best to match your skills, business, residence, personal finances etc to the new circumstances. The picture being painted is as if the minute the deal is signed you'll get a demand through your door for the whole €5k - it's silly.

Absolutely nothing useful can be done on the scale of time that panic implies - so what's the point of the media drumming up scary scenarios? Apart from the fact that it increases viewer numbers, of course, and VB's personal profile (and thus fees), I can't see any.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 02:12AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Absolutely nothing useful can be done on the scale of time that panic implies - so what's the point of the media drumming up scary scenarios? Apart from the fact that it increases viewer numbers, of course, and VB's personal profile (and thus fees), I can't see any.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Fair enough but why is Rehn saying everyday is vital and government is pushing for budget passed maybe even next week?

I would be much less panicky happier if IMF/EU said they would wait till after general election and take up negotiations then, including funding anything needed in mean time. It must be a fraction (3months of total 3 year funding?)

The urgency is coming from Rehn and Cowen who is addressing the nation every other day. It reminds me of the banking crisis in 2008 when they said the banks would end if there wasnt a guarentee. Feel Ireland is being bounced about this agreement and the budget and its making me jumpy.

Dotsie~tmp · 24-11-2010 02:14AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

The problem is that the scary stuff isn't useful - we're not talking about war here. In a year's time, when the bailout and the rest have fed into the Budgets, you can take stock - because for most of us, that's when things will actually have an impact. In the meantime, unless one is actually heavily invested in Irish sovereign debt or bank shares, this is all effectively meaningless - fun to speculate on, but absolutely not worth panicking over - the IMF aren't going to come to your house to demand an immediate payment.

Seriously, what is it supposed to achieve?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Your asking people to change their nature. The same irrational exuberance that feeds bubbles has a flip side. Its just the way people are.

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 02:22AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Any of the options now available to us will impact jobs, welfare, house prices, taxes, services, everything - and none of the options are great. We know that, and we knew that this time last year. We knew that a budget was coming up that aimed to cut €6bn off the state deficit, and we knew that the banks were swallowing money.

What we don't know is how any of this works out in terms of impact on us particularly. We won't know that until the bailout, the banks, a default, or whatever is factored into the taxes we pay, the services we receive, the value of our house, and the chances of getting a job - and that will take a couple of years. Panic might be appropriate if there was an army landing around our coast with the intention of exterminating the Irish. It's completely and utterly useless here, because we're not talking about fleeing down the road with your Grandad in a hand cart - we're talking about looking at the long-term impact, and deciding on how best to match your skills, business, residence, personal finances etc to the new circumstances. The picture being painted is as if the minute the deal is signed you'll get a demand through your door for the whole €5k - it's silly.

Absolutely nothing useful can be done on the scale of time that panic implies - so what's the point of the media drumming up scary scenarios? Apart from the fact that it increases viewer numbers, of course, and VB's personal profile (and thus fees), I can't see any.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scaring people is your interpretation, tbh I just see it as the truth.

Put simply, we owe a fortune and because our economy is so small, we may not be able to afford to pay off the debts, particularly if the interest rate is too high.

I think it was fair for the panelists to point that out tonight.

jank · 24-11-2010 02:26AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Unless they know everything that's involved, that's not that much use - and is "hyped and over the top" commentary really what's needed in a "fraught and tense" situation?

Even the back of the envelope figures about €200bn divided by 2m taxpayers are utterly meaningless.

Catastrophe TV is good TV - it's not even slightly likely to be accurate, though. The rate isn't known yet, and people are doing calculations with figures pulled out of their trousers and waving them around shouting "doomed!". Meh.

slightly despairing,
Scofflaw

I agree but I think the penny has finally dropped that we are bust! No matter what the IMF come out with or the ECB we will not be able to pay the debt. Unless they give us Billions at 2%. The 85 billion mentioned before is going to be between 5% and 6.5% we just cant afford that.

Didnt see the VB show so where is the extra 200 billion coming from all of a sudden?

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 02:34AM

jank wrote: »

I agree but I think the penny has finally dropped that we are bust! No matter what the IMF come out with or the ECB we will not be able to pay the debt. Unless they give us Billions at 2%. The 85 billion mentioned before is going to be between 5% and 6.5% we just cant afford that.

Didnt see the VB show so where is the extra 200 billion coming from all of a sudden?

Seems to be existing state debt of c. €90bn, plus the bailout of €85bn, plus some figure that happens to take it a round and scary number.

There does seem to be an element of surprise here - mind you, I've been pointing out that people were in denial for a while.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 02:43AM

You cant blame people for being in denial. Government had said only days ago that no bailout was needed. Would imagine that most took those words at face value.

Think we knew things were going to be rough but done in orderly manner.

Now the bailout is underway, the Greens have caused the government to be a lame duck and there is talk of defaulting and pulling out of the euro. Thats just since Sunday

Digitaljunkie · 24-11-2010 02:45AM

Not so sure of the credibility of the VB show at the end comments of 250 billion so it went up 50 in a few minutes. I do hope their wrong..........

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 02:49AM

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

You cant blame people for being in denial. Government had said only days ago that no bailout was needed. Would imagine that most took those words at face value.

Think we knew things were going to be rough but done in orderly manner.

Now the bailout is underway, the Greens have caused the government to be a lame duck and there is talk of defaulting and pulling out of the euro. Thats just since Sunday

The Greens will apparently be on board for the budget (unlike Messrs Healy-Rae and Lowry), and there has been talk of defaulting and pulling out of the euro for a while - but personally I'd say that's more denial, in a way, because a lot of those pushing for it seem to believe it's somehow pain-free. Default may be a better option than a loan at punitive rates, but we won't know until we know the rates. It'll be painful either way.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 02:53AM

Do you know whats in the budget that it needs to be passed before a general election? why does Rehn want it passed urgently?

jank · 24-11-2010 02:54AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Seems to be existing state debt of c. €90bn, plus the bailout of €85bn, plus some figure that happens to take it a round and scary number.

There does seem to be an element of surprise here - mind you, I've been pointing out that people were in denial for a while.

cordially,
Scofflaw

What is your personal opinion on what will happen so and what should happen...

You love talking down to people saying dont panic as its pretty much meaningless in peoples day to day lives. So what do you foresee in the future. Nail your colours to the mast.

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 03:03AM

jank wrote: »

What is your personal opinion on what will happen so and what should happen...

You love talking down to people saying dont panic as its pretty much meaningless in peoples day to day lives. So what do you foresee in the future. Nail your colours to the mast.

Why, though? I can speculate all I like, but I'd rather not waste the energy, because, again, the facts will happen anyway, and they're highly unlikely to be exactly as I predict.

The only prediction I can realistically make is that taxes will go up, services will go down, unemployment will go up, and that overall the good times are over for the moment. How much of each happens is open to the kind of speculation I regard as pretty pointless.

So I don't have any colours to nail to the mast - my objection to people panicking over rumours is only that they're panicking over rumours, not the sort of rumours (I'm as sceptical of bubble rumours as bust rumours). I'm opposed to treating rumours as fact, nothing more, and opposed to panic because it's an entirely pointless response.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jank · 24-11-2010 03:08AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Why, though? I can speculate all I like, but I'd rather not waste the energy, because, again, the facts will happen anyway, and they're highly unlikely to be exactly as I predict.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Why? Isn't blindly obvious? This is a discussion forum where like it or not these things will be discussed, as a moderator I thought that would be clear to you. Why have a discussion forum at all? Waste of energy and all that..

Dotsie~tmp · 24-11-2010 03:12AM

Whether you like people panicing, being irrationally or not doesnt matter, its human nature. The man on the street is starting to get a bit scared of these numbers now. When ordinary people start to panic literally anything is possible. Whether logical or not.

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 03:14AM

jank wrote: »

Why? Isn't blindly obvious? This is a discussion forum where like it or not these things will be discussed, as a moderator I thought that would be clear to you. Why have a discussion forum at all? Waste of energy and all that..

+1. There's no "panic", it's just a discussion, based on reality (for once).

Bob_Latchford · 24-11-2010 03:18AM

Irish have taken this very well so far. If a few people letting off steam on forums is all it amounts to I think its almost horizontal its so laid back

K-9 · 24-11-2010 03:20AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

They should, but they won't. Personally, I can't see the point of getting worked up over what Vincent Brown's panellists agree on. I'd rather hear it from the IMF.

cordially,
Scofflaw

As far as I know, this all based on somebody mentioning the 7% figure and a minister, who probably will not be in the negotiations, not refuting it.

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 03:25AM

jank wrote: »

Why? Isn't blindly obvious? This is a discussion forum where like it or not these things will be discussed, as a moderator I thought that would be clear to you. Why have a discussion forum at all? Waste of energy and all that..

I enjoy the discussions because they challenge my own political views about what is right or wrong, better or worse, but there's nothing challenging about people speculating about facts.

How one reacts to the facts of a situation is a matter of politics, and infinitely open to discussion, but the facts aren't. Facts are, or aren't - what's to discuss? Why speculate about them in advance, except to gamble on them - and gambling is one of the few vices I have no time for at all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

flynnlives · 24-11-2010 03:28AM

K-9 wrote: »

As far as I know, this all based on somebody mentioning the 7% figure and a minister, who probably will not be in the negotiations, not refuting it.

never mind 7%, the other figure of 5% that was banded around is still to much.

K-9 · 24-11-2010 03:33AM

flynnlives wrote: »

never mind 7%, the other figure of 5% that was banded around is still to much.

We don't know if it is going to be €340 Billion or whatever the figure is either.

It could be, we just don't know yet.

jank · 24-11-2010 03:39AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

I enjoy the discussions because they challenge my own political views about what is right or wrong, better or worse, but there's nothing challenging about people speculating about facts.

How one reacts to the facts of a situation is a matter of politics, and infinitely open to discussion, but the facts aren't. Facts are, or aren't - what's to discuss? Why speculate about them in advance, except to gamble on them - and gambling is one of the few vices I have no time for at all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

The facts may or may not be on the button... but and this is a big but there is now a FACT or at least a growing consensus that the Irish debt is so big that it cannot be paid back at all...
You can be Zen like all you want but this appears to be the state of play as of tonight.....

Bailout Amounts to €85 Billion

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