Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:35AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

My last response to this appears to have been deleted, so let me respond this time in words rather than images - you're absolutely hilarious.

MonkieSocks · 24-11-2010 01:35AM

Not good reading here either

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/euro-in-exceptionally-serious-situation-amid-irish-bailout-merkel-says.html

ardmacha · 24-11-2010 01:35AM

The point about these figures was that Lucey seemed to start off with the State owing €90bn and then went to say that bonds fall due of €23bn (or whatever). But surely these were in the €90bn figure???

Whatever the exact figures we need a low interest rate. These banks will be worth something when the dust settles but we have to able to pay the interest in the meantime. A renogotiation of bank bonds needs to be something like their replacement with bonds paying ECB and due in 2025, this way the capital of the pension funds is preserved in theory at least and there is every chance of the bonds being capable of being paid.

th3 s1aught3r · 24-11-2010 01:36AM

Why has it taken TWO YEARS for us to go bankrupt? I mean the banking crisis was in 2008 !

wylo · 24-11-2010 01:36AM

Why has it been consistent that the negative 'scare mongerers' for the last 10 years have always been right and the "ah its not that bad' crowd seem to be wrong. Why should this be any different? Just sick of people using the hysteria scare mongering argument when people seem to bang on the money so often.

Scarab80 · 24-11-2010 01:36AM

ArtSmart wrote: »

plus lumping all those figures together as if they are one already released straight loan is disingenuous.

WTF is Lucy at? gunning for McW's fame?

All you need to know about Brian Lucey is encapsulated in two sentences of an article he wrote for the times.

Brian Lucey wrote:

Anglo can be wound up cheaply -- here's how. Sell the €28bn deposit book.

This is a regular event in banking, and even if it has to take a discount of 25pc that would yield €21bn.

If his logic is sound this 300bn bailout will make us the richest nation in the world, we can just turn around and sell it for a 25% discount yielding the state 225bn plus the 300bn gives us 525bn.

Where are the Ferraris?!

Mayo Exile · 24-11-2010 01:36AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Well DF, it appears the markets ARE "shouting fire in a crowded theatre". From Bloomberg:

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s debt woes may spread because investors have lost confidence in policy makers’ efforts to quell the crisis, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets said.

“The markets currently have virtually zero confidence that the bailout in Ireland will solve the European crisis even though fiscal austerity measures in both Portugal and Spain have been severe and prima facie, sufficient to ease market concerns,” Charles Diebel and David Page, fixed-income strategists in London, wrote in an investor note today.

“With markets effectively in a position to dictate policy, the risk is that the credibility crisis shifts to more sizeable European Union countries and thereby poses a greater risk to the system as a whole,” they wrote. That may also raise “valid questions about the prescriptive policy measures being sufficient to deal with issues of such magnitude.”

oppenheimer1 · 24-11-2010 01:36AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Some seriously deluded people on this thread!!

These are the average figures.
Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB said no more circa €30billion.

Circa €340billion all told.

The total average interest rate for that is ~6.4-6.7%
Which is between 14-18 billion a year.

These guys are independent economists as well. They have nothing to gain outta this.

GAME OVER.

Sure go ahead and say this is scaremongering but your only fooling yourselfs.
Lucey, Gurdgiev, Sommerville and McWilliams have been totally on the ball since this thing started.

The worst thing is we have a FF gombeeen idiots worried about there seats. They have no clue how the markets work and certainly no clue of the scale of this disaster.

The debt is NOT CUMULATIVE

Birdnuts · 24-11-2010 01:38AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Some seriously deluded people on this thread!!

These are the average figures.
Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB said no more circa €30billion.

Circa €340billion all told.

The total average interest rate for that is ~6.4-6.7%
Which is between 14-18 billion a year.

These guys are independent economists as well. They have nothing to gain outta this.

GAME OVER.

Sure go ahead and say this is scaremongering but your only fooling yourselfs.
Lucey, Gurdgiev, Sommerville and McWilliams have been totally on the ball since this thing started.

The worst thing is we have a FF gombeeen idiots worried about there seats. They have no clue how the markets work and certainly no clue of the scale of this disaster.

Thanx for that - appears to be some here who would prefer to wallow in a Large river in Egypt:rolleyes:

gandalf · 24-11-2010 01:38AM

I have a feeling the figure is going to be 5% even that is too high. If the figure is 7% we should walk away from the table immediately.

If we had proper leaders we would turn around to the IMF & EU and demand a lower rate or threaten to take the euro down. It is about time that our so called leaders grew some balls. They talked about a poker game last week well lets see them play one.

I realise that this could be construed as reckless but in reality if we are being saddled with a high interest rate then our ability to get out of this mess is inhibited further. Let us use the fears of Europe and the bond markets against them to secure more reasonable terms.

I also feel that given the monumental commitment that the government are going to burden the Irish Public with before they crumble into the abyss that there be full disclosure of the actual details of the deal with the IMF before they sign on the dotted line.

24-11-2010 01:39AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Some seriously deluded people on this thread!!

These are the average figures.
Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB said no more circa €30billion.

Circa €340billion all told.

yeap and before the EU bailout money was added in threads like these:
http://www.politics.ie/economy/81846-national-debt-clock.html
and
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=17373

were tallying the numbers so its only the bailout money + the money from the last few weeks shennannigans thats new.

For once I can now appreciate Mc Williams idea about leaving the Euro completely

Permabear · 24-11-2010 01:40AM

This post has been deleted.

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 01:40AM

Bloomberg made similiar comments and so did Senator Shane Ross.

Are some of the posters here in denial that we owe at least 250 billion and we're going to have pay it all back at a high interest rate. The obvious implication for a state our size is that we can't afford that.

Now if people have an issue with Vincent Browne, that's a separate issue, but don't disregard the analysis tonight. It's about time we get some honesty on the debate.

CiaranC · 24-11-2010 01:40AM

wylo wrote: »

Why has it been consistent that the negative 'scare mongerers' for the last 10 years have always been right and the "ah its not that bad' crowd seem to be wrong. Why should this be any different? Just sick of people using the hysteria scare mongering argument when people seem to bang on the money so often.

Its seems that if Scofflaw and oppenheimer are on here scoffing and snorting at people and telling us that something is unfounded scaremongering one week, it will have come to pass the next.

flynnlives · 24-11-2010 01:40AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The debt is NOT CUMULATIVE

Hence Gurdgiev has worked out the average interest of 6.7%

WAKE UP!!

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:41AM

wylo wrote: »

meh , more lisbon treaty crap, this whole crisis has nothing to do with the LT, and it is acnkowledged by anyone that knows anything that all these catchphrases on BOTH sides of the debate were nonsense.

Just throwing in another of the many lies we've been told by our boys in the Dail, is all.
It's a good one, though. Worth remembering now that the EU is at the gates, demanding we indebt ourselves beyond our capacity to ever repay so that THEIR banks and billionaires don't lose their bets.

IT-Guy · 24-11-2010 01:41AM

Whatever the final figure of the bailout is, defaulting would surely be cheaper in the long run? If the gov displays a bit of foresight (that it sadly lacked in not letting Anglo fail) defaulting is surely the better option? Also what would happen to current mortgages if we default? I'm about 25k in negative equity and really don't want to have to give the house back to the bank?

I'm also back at college, am worried what will happen to the back to education allowance I'm getting because in 2 weeks time it will be my only source of income, found out Monday my part time job is being wound up in 2 weeks. Some f****n' week this has been. Doubt I'll be getting any sleep tonight...

cleremy jarkson · 24-11-2010 01:42AM

This is actually insurmountable.

We need a tecnocratic government right away.

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:42AM

wylo wrote: »

Will people please argue with the figures so instead of writing it off as Vincent Brown nonsense because some of us dont know enough to believe either side.
Maybe devote a thread to just arguing the figures of what we owe because the info seems to be scattered all over the shop.

the figures can not be argued until all the % rates are known. some of the figures mentioned wont exist at all, money has yet to be drawn down, the sovereign debt is a separate issue, the 89/90 billion may be written down somewhat through bank assets liquidation and some subordinate bond default (not full default) the 20 billion was really money printed by the CB, the 23 billion due on bonds may well be incorporated into the possible 100 billion contingency fund. (amt dependent on usage as yet unknown )

In short, the figures in as much as they might exist can only be dealt with individually and under different individual conditions - and cant be lumped together as a homogeneous whole. .

flynnlives · 24-11-2010 01:45AM

ArtSmart wrote: »

In short, the figures in as much as they might exist can only be dealt with individually and under different individual conditions - and cant be lumped together as a homogeneous whole. .

Do you not think they have worked this fact in?
Do you take them for idiots?

this is were they are coming up with the figure of between 6.4% - 6.7%

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 01:46AM

Bloomberg reporting S&P downgrading Ireland to A status... same as Andorra & Malta.

Sorry if this frightens people.

wylo · 24-11-2010 01:46AM

ArtSmart wrote: »

the figures can not be argued until all the % rates are known. some of the figures mentioned wont exist at all, money has yet to be drawn down, the sovereign debt is a separate issue, the 89/90 billion may be written down somewhat through bank assets liquidation and some subordinate bond default (not full default) the 20 billion was really money printed by the CB, the 23 billion due on bonds may well be incorporated into the possible 100 billion contingency fund. (amt dependent on usage as yet unknown )

.

Has this been said by anyone though , isnt the bailout not for our banks and the countries spending?

DDigital · 24-11-2010 01:47AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Do you not think they have worked this fact in?
Do you take them for idiots?

this is were they are coming up with the figure of between 6.4% - 6.7%

You know I really really doubt that Brian Lucy is stupid enough to stand over those figures on national TV unless there's credibility in them.

oppenheimer1 · 24-11-2010 01:47AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Do you not think they have worked this fact in?
Do you take them for idiots?

this is were they are coming up with the figure of between 6.4% - 6.7%

Yes I do. Only an idiot would have bought at the top of the boom, like Gurdgiev.

th3 s1aught3r · 24-11-2010 01:47AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting S&P downgrading Ireland to A status... same as Andorra & Malta.

Sorry if this frightens people.

Yeah we have been downgraded again

The risk premium on Ireland’s 10-year debt over German bunds, Europe’s benchmark, widened 45 basis points to 589 basis points yesterday on concern that the budget may not pass and the government will fall. The yield spread reached a record 652 basis points on Nov. 11

Cheap Thrills! · 24-11-2010 01:48AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I hope they're not too late.

I did that last week. Took it to the credit union. Still don't know if it's safe. But you do realise if the euro keeps going this way and Portugal an Spain will go down early next year regardless?

And then our hard earned savings are worth nothing?

We have to partially default and look at getting out of the euro with bilateral support from Sweden and the UK.

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:48AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting S&P downgrading Ireland to A status... same as Andorra & Malta.

Sorry if this frightens people.

They're also reporting that we're the world's most likely country to suffer a commercial property crash in the next 3 years.

hinault · 24-11-2010 01:48AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting S&P downgrading Ireland to A status... same as Andorra & Malta.

Sorry if this frightens people.

S&P are only following the same conclusion which Moodys announced last week concerning Irelands credit rating.

We're being emulsified in debt.

And remember, many citizens carry huge levels of personal debt too.
(sorry to be totally pessimistic).

oppenheimer1 · 24-11-2010 01:50AM

SOCCER4LIFE wrote: »

It dosen't suprsise me that some people on here are refusing to see the absolute urgency of the situation we find ourselves in, I find the whole of boards.ie is full of unwarrented skepticism.

Its also full of social arsonists who wouldn't be happier to see the whole country fall to pieces. We try and maintain some balance and perspective.

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:51AM

flynnlives wrote: »

Do you not think they have worked this fact in?
Do you take them for idiots?

this is were they are coming up with the figure of between 6.4% - 6.7%

em, well I wouldn't use the word idiots

ps, chill dude.

Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

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