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Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

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Comments

  • #32
    Cheap Thrills!
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭Cheap Thrills!


    Bob_Latchford wrote: »
    This hole just keeps getting bigger. There must have been a cover up?


    It's FF, I believe there is a huge amount involved. :(

    Cover-up doesn't begin to describe it.....

    We have to call a snap election, we cannot sign up for this without total transparency. And to get anything approaching that we have to call a snap election.

    This is really serious. We have a CHOICE. The 'Government' need to how us the figures, now. We have to demand that, they won't volunteer.

    It's NOT our job to bail out the euro, we need to leverage our power to upend the euro to allow us to demand forgiveness for default to gambler style bondholders.


  • #33
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,365 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    WE don't. The banks do. Time to sever the connection and let them float away, or sink.

    Yep sorry, the banks.


  • #34
    Bob_Latchford
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 399 ✭✭Bob_Latchford


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    What is hysterical about it?

    They did the adding and it came to roughly 300 billion. One panelist suggested that we need to default. It's hardly hysteria.

    Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

    I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?


  • #35
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    Bob_Latchford wrote: »
    Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

    I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?

    Sure it can. Check the list of Anglo and AIB creditors. It's like a who's who of European banking. And billionaires. And pension funds.

    Throw in the threat to the single currency and the likelihood of Portugal, Spain and Greece defaulting too, and a UK economic disaster resulting from their trade surplus with Ireland vanishing overnight and their banks taking a vicious hit, and you have a perfect storm, my friend.


  • #36
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,898 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    Why does Browne allow those "economists" to frighten people? I know fear is in high demand at the moment but its ridiculous.

    Yeah - lets get on Dan Mclaughlin and some IBEC shrill to tell us how well Google are doing(apparently google profits = Irish GNP):rolleyes:


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  • #37
    Bob_Latchford
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 399 ✭✭Bob_Latchford


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    Sure it can. Check the list of Anglo and AIB creditors. It's like a who's who of European banking. And billionaires. And pension funds.

    Throw in the threat to the single currency and the likelihood of Portugal, Spain and Greece defaulting too, and a UK economic disaster resulting from their trade surplus with Ireland vanishing overnight and their banks taking a vicious hit, and you have a perfect storm, my friend.

    I suppose Im hoping its hyperbole to get people in the street and strengthen negotiators hand. But still worst in world ever? cant get my head round that


  • #38
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,365 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Bob_Latchford wrote: »
    Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

    I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?


    Probably yes, for the size of our country.


  • #39
    ArtSmart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,610 ✭✭✭ArtSmart


    Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

    suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

    utter devastation for decades.

    better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

    you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .


  • #40
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    Bob_Latchford wrote: »
    I suppose Im hoping its hyperbole to get people in the street and strengthen negotiators hand. But still worst in world ever? cant get my head round that

    Potentially the worst. It's not happened yet. We've been kicking this can down the road for two years now. But the endgame is coming.


  • #41
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    ArtSmart wrote: »
    Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

    suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

    utter devastation for decades.

    better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

    We've a far better class of crossroads these days - they'd fit a lot more maidens.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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  • #42
    bleg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,848 ✭✭✭bleg


    ArtSmart wrote: »
    utter devastation for decades.


    Same either way.


  • #43
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,898 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    ArtSmart wrote: »
    Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

    suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

    utter devastation for decades.

    better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

    you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .

    Eithier way we're fupped:(


  • #44
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,365 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    Yes but the banks assets are not entirely worthless unlike what Lucy would have you believe. Yes they have distressed assets and non performing loans, but the deal cut by the IMF that was revealed tonight was to sell off these loans with a loss sharing arrangement with the buyers, in order to reduce the size of the banks.

    Why does Browne allow those "economists" to frighten people? I know fear is in high demand at the moment but its ridiculous.

    Are you taking into account the interest rate that we have to pay for the debts?


  • #45
    ArtSmart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,610 ✭✭✭ArtSmart


    bleg wrote: »
    Same either way.
    a = lights

    b = no lights

    c= no lights anywhere


  • #46
    wylo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,214 ✭✭✭wylo


    ArtSmart wrote: »

    better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

    you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .
    you need to elaborate here instead of using metaphors, why would we be huddled in the dark, we will be starting clean.We'll be huddled for a short time and probably a horrible time but would it not give us the opportunity to start growing again as opposed to sitting around paying massive interest with no growth.


  • #47
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Are you taking into account the interest rate that we have to pay for the debts?

    I'm still trying to work this one out. Can anyone handy with a calculator help?

    What is our deficit interest payments per capita per annum currently?

    What would the interest at 7% on 85 billion be per annum over a ten year term?

    What would the total interest payment per capita per annum for all the above be?

    And what would it be per taxpayer per annum?


  • #48
    SB-08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 566 ✭✭✭SB-08


    This is just mind-boggling stuff. Yes it has gone beyond politics but as these experts say the Government need to resign now. It is just so serious and we cannot trust the people who got us into this to possibly deal with this situation. This budget will just be a spit on a fire - FG and Labour need to do everything now to get rid of this Government. We simply cannot have these morons negotiating us a deal of this size.


  • #49
    fatalll
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 437 ✭✭fatalll


    Vinny is the most pessemestic man ever..
    and he brings on guests who are like him alot of the time.
    He may be right in some of it, but the scare mongering is unreal!
    Just be a bit more positive..all of us, out our shoulder to the wheel and lets shove!!:)


  • #50
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Yeah - lets get on Dan Mclaughlin and some IBEC shrill to tell us how well Google are doing(apparently google profits = Irish GNP):rolleyes:

    No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.


  • #51
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.

    You'll be out buying AIB and BoI shares in the morning, no doubt, since by your analysis they are currently massively undervalued?


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  • #52
    cleremy jarkson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 542 ✭✭✭cleremy jarkson


    An island of about 4 million people, needs to pay back 300 billion euro? With interest? I hope we all enjoyed the unnatural, undeserved, artificial, credit-binge fuelled boom while it was here folks, because we'll be paying for it for decades to come.
    Funny, I don't recall anyone saying a few years ago "God, isn't this boom great".
    We're some lot, arn't we..


  • #53
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Are you taking into account the interest rate that we have to pay for the debts?

    We only have to pay interest on the balance or the shortfall. I was furious listening to those con-artists selling their brand of fear tonight.


  • #54
    bleg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,848 ✭✭✭bleg


    fatalll wrote: »
    Vinny is the most pessemestic man ever..
    and he brings on guests who are like him alot of the time.
    He may be right in some of it, but the scare mongering is unreal!
    Just be a bit more positive..all of us, out our shoulder to the wheel and lets shove!!:)

    Shove that crowd out of Leinster house first.


  • #55
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    We only have to pay interest on the balance or the shortfall. I was furious listening to those con-artists selling their brand of fear tonight.

    And how much is that? Care to give me a hand with my maths homework? ;)
    I'm still trying to work this one out. Can anyone handy with a calculator help?

    What is our deficit interest payments per capita per annum currently?

    What would the interest at 7% on 85 billion be per annum over a ten year term?

    What would the total interest payment per capita per annum for all the above be?

    And what would it be per taxpayer per annum?


  • #56
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Again, absolutely no expert here but every indicator and commentator is saying the 'market's are way ahead of the EU's bandaid attempt at making Ireland be the patsy for private debt - Spain and Portugal are not going to escape if we take on colossal amounts of debt, they will be next and we will be left still trying to pay off private debt which we will have to eventually default on.

    Now, how does a country manage to cut the rotten banks and their private debt adrift and establish a new, orderly good bank with which to keep the economy and people going?


  • #57
    ArtSmart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,610 ✭✭✭ArtSmart


    wylo wrote: »
    you need to elaborate here instead of using metaphors, why would we be huddled in the dark, we will be starting clean.We'll be huddled for a short time and probably a horrible time but would it not give us the opportunity to start growing again as opposed to sitting around paying massive interest with no growth.

    why would it be a short time?

    we dont have enough revenue at the moment and that wont change for a while - but if we can keep going, through borrowing we may improve that.

    but if there is no money to borrow, what then

    A country, like a business needs money. where are we going to get it? - from lenders? who do lenders lend to? the needy? the deserving? or to those who will pay back and they can make a profit of?

    and who can pay back? the impoverished? or those working.

    we dont need money? we have enough? really? for six months you say - maybe another four with the pension fund

    what's that? we can live on fingernails and prayer until, well, until you know, things , well, get better.

    soon as we get some capital n stuff.


  • #58
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.

    ah dont tell the little people the truth it might scare them :mad:
    House prices are going nowhere but down for the foreseeable future
    Mortgage arrears alone cause banks to go bust and ours hasnt even begun
    http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2281&p=374552&hilit=IMF+database#p374552

    The sheer numbers of interest only loans ^^ given out at the height of the boom is mind boggling.

    Unemployment will go UP as we pull money out of the economy to repair the deficit and redirect billions into the black holes in the banks.

    We are better off cutting loose and starting new banks.


  • #59
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ArtSmart wrote: »
    why would it be a short time?

    Because paying off 200 billion euros could take 20 years plus
    Defaulting on that debt and starting anew would certainly be quicker.
    Iceland is doing better than we are now. Higher growth and lower unemployment


  • #60
    lmaopml
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,080 ✭✭✭lmaopml


    Jeepurs my head is spinning after that...

    Did he add in Sovereign debt and all there for the shock factor, and the ECB funding?

    What's the story with 7% on the bailout? Who told the economists what the rate was going to be - was there a leak?

    So they're recommending tough negotiation - I second that, do they know what's going on at the table?

    Meh, they did really cool rolleyes though...all around their foreheads and back onto their faces..lol...


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  • #61
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    You'll be out buying AIB and BoI shares in the morning, no doubt, since by your analysis they are currently massively undervalued?

    Why would I do that when they're about to be nationalised? I never said they were undervalued. Do I think all the money the banks owe will be paid back? No I don't, they will be restructured and holders of certain securities will be burned like the Anglo announcement today where certain bondholders are to get 20c in the euro on their investment. There will be writedowns on the loans to the Irish banks, even nationalised, they are still separate entities to the sovereign.

    Yes total Irish debt at 700%GDP is far too high so It won't all be paid back to foreigners. We will pay some and they will take losses on others.


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