Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

whatawaster · 23-10-2010 04:47PM #1

FF 18 (-6)
FG 32 (+1)
Lab 27 (+4)
SF 9 (-1)
Green 4 (+1)
Ind 10 (+1).

We'll have another week of rumours about heaves, with nothing actually happening, but 18% is disastrous for FF, and if it happened on GE, i'm sure some ministers would be in trouble

PomBear · 23-10-2010 04:51PM

man, those polls are such BS

Nodin · 23-10-2010 04:56PM

There is something odd when one crowd consistently have labour as largest opposition party and the other have FG....Somebodys methodology must be askew.

jmcc · 23-10-2010 05:00PM

If those figures are confirmed, then it is curtains for Cowen and FF. The interesting thing will be seeing how RTE/Pravda spins this.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 23-10-2010 05:01PM

Nodin wrote: »

There is something odd when one crowd consistently have labour as largest opposition party and the other have FG....Somebodys methodology must be askew.

It may be the allocation of the Don't Knows. There are some good politicial stats heads on P.ie who could explain it.

Regards...jmcc

Liam Byrne · 23-10-2010 05:03PM

Looks like at least some of the core 20% are finally copping themselves on!

I'd say "great news" except that 18% is still 18% too high

Iwasfrozen · 23-10-2010 05:03PM

Sinn Fein seem to be a largest proportional winners, going from four to fifteen seats.

Nodin · 23-10-2010 05:05PM

jmcc wrote: »

It may be the allocation of the Don't Knows. There are some good politicial stats heads on P.ie who could explain it.

Regards...jmcc

Yeah....but wading through the other headers to find them would require more patience than I can currently muster....

gandalf · 23-10-2010 05:09PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Sinn Fein seem to be a largest proportional winners, going from four to fifteen seats.

The problem with SF is their transfers tend to be very poor. So unless they get very close to the quota first count they will probably not get elected.

Iwasfrozen · 23-10-2010 05:12PM

gandalf wrote: »

The problem with SF is their transfers tend to be very poor. So unless they get very close to the quota first count they will probably not get elected.

True but I suppose they can expect labour transfers. Providing labour don't run too many candidates.

flutered · 23-10-2010 05:12PM

give it another two months it will get worse for dff, the problems facing f.g. are older people remember how they can cut, the buisness community do not trust labour, thats my take on it.

PatsytheNazi · 23-10-2010 05:38PM

whatawaster wrote: »

FF 18 (-6)
FG 32 (+1)
Lab 27 (+4)
SF 9 (-1)
Green 4 (+1)
Ind 10 (+1).

We'll have another week of rumours about heaves, with nothing actually happening, but 18% is disastrous for FF, and if it happened on GE, i'm sure some ministers would be in trouble

Interesting the Greens going up +1, while SF loose -1 and Indos just +1. Great to see FF at 18%. Hopefully it will be down to 8% after the budget and carries into the election.

Still I'm not optimistic as FG may form the largest number of TD's and hence have the clout over Lab. What I fear is that FG will impose the same policy's as FF as FG are basically only a snotty version of FF and will protect the scum, the so called ' wealth creators ' who have manufactured the economic abyss.

hotmail.com · 23-10-2010 05:46PM

On the basis of these figures, FF could lose 25-35 seats, which would be an electoral disaster.

FF are fecked in Dublin and it'll be interesting to see how many candidates they select to run in Dublin constituencies.

Mary Hanafin's seat is in real danger as is Michael Martin's.

PatsytheNazi · 23-10-2010 05:56PM

Dev will be spinning in his grave.

Sierra Oscar · 23-10-2010 06:16PM

Electoral disaster looms for FF, no doubt about that.

PatsytheNazi · 23-10-2010 06:21PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Electoral disaster looms for FF, no doubt about that.

Break open the champagne !!!!!!

Poly · 23-10-2010 06:21PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

On the basis of these figures, FF could lose 25-35 seats, which would be an electoral disaster.

Happy days!

Is this the first poll since Cowen's "nasal congestion"?

PatsytheNazi · 23-10-2010 06:24PM

I wonder what effect the arrest of the FF councilors yesterday had on this poll. Would it be as low for FF if the arrests weren't the headline news ? Will the gombeens have forgot about this for the next poll/election ?

copacetic · 23-10-2010 06:26PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

True but I suppose they can expect labour transfers. Providing labour don't run too many candidates.

not at the current Labour figures, there is no way most of the people who switched their votes to Labour from FF or FG are going to waste a transfer on SF.

spider guardian · 23-10-2010 06:27PM

interview with cowen in the times today, still firmly believes in the 2012 mandate, best of luck to him i say!

Sierra Oscar · 23-10-2010 06:33PM

spider guardian wrote: »

interview with cowen in the times today, still firmly believes in the 2012 mandate, best of luck to him i say!

Well his mandate is valid - democracy would be a farce if an election had to be called based on every opinion poll result.

EDIT: Although I would be very sceptical of FF having the ability to soldier on if they put yet another new leader in place . . .

However its now pretty apparent that FF, for the good of the party in mind, should have held an election last year at the latest.

Poly · 23-10-2010 06:41PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well his mandate is valid - democracy would be a farce

Democracy is a farce if your'e in Donegal sw, Dub s. or waterford.

spider guardian · 23-10-2010 06:43PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well his mandate is valid - democracy would be a farce if an election had to be called based on every opinion poll result.

However its now pretty apparent that FF, for the good of the party in mind, should have held an election last year at the latest.

true, and the government has pushed through some very tough measures in its term (NAMA, Lisbon, hairshirt budgets) but if all the by-elections were held in the morning then it would be difficult to see them lasting much longer. opinion polls can be hit or miss but the discontent has been brewing for a long time now. that said i would hate to see a populist government (Labour) come in, stick their heads in the sands and make things even worse than they are now

jmcc · 23-10-2010 06:45PM

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Dev will be spinning in his grave.

He might have gotten caught in the Irish Press printing presses.

Regards...jmcc

Duiske · 23-10-2010 06:46PM

gandalf wrote: »

The problem with SF is their transfers tend to be very poor. So unless they get very close to the quota first count they will probably not get elected.

True, and that problem was very evident during last years local elections.
My own feeling is that Sinn Fein and the Independents may suffer in the next election, Not through any fault of their own, but because I think the voters want FF gone, and will turn to parties that have a realistic chance of making that happen.

As for the Greens, the only way they can save themselves now is to disassociate themselves from FF. My money would be on them to do this and bring down the Government, possibly as early as next Febuary.

Barring a miraculous return growth in the economy I would expect the percentages to be largely in line with that poll, though with small decreases for SF and Idependents.

GSF · 23-10-2010 06:49PM

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

I wonder what effect the arrest of the FF councilors yesterday had on this poll. Would it be as low for FF if the arrests weren't the headline news ? Will the gombeens have forgot about this for the next poll/election ?

None. The fieldwork was done on Monday - Wednesday of this week.

Liam Byrne · 23-10-2010 06:56PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well his mandate is valid - democracy would be a farce if an election had to be called based on every opinion poll result.

It's not about the poll result, it's about the fact that Cowen was implicated in the crash, and Lenihan's decisions have been proven disastrous.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

However its now pretty apparent that FF, for the good of the party in mind, should have held an election last year at the latest.

Who cares about "the good of the party" ? All we're interested in is the good of the country.

Donnaghm · 23-10-2010 06:58PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

On the basis of these figures, FF could lose 25-35 seats, which would be an electoral disaster.

Well when considering the fact that FF will be completely transfer repellent in the next election and that FG were reduced to 31 seats in 2002 with 22 per cent of the support, FF could lose 45 seats. And FF will probably lose all their good (by good I mean good by FF standards) communicators who are from urban constituencies so they'll find it very hard to recover from there. How delightful I say.

Sierra Oscar · 23-10-2010 06:58PM

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Who cares about "the good of the party" ? All we're interested in is the good of the country.

FF care about the good of the party - just making the observation that they must be kicking themselves now thinking that the parties popularity had bottomed out in 09.

Mr.Micro · 23-10-2010 07:58PM

spider guardian wrote: »

interview with cowen in the times today, still firmly believes in the 2012 mandate, best of luck to him i say!

Mandate indeed one that currently precludes 3 bye-election TD's from expressing the will of their voters. It rings hollow from Bifffo now, this so called mandate...... minus 3. With a bit of luck come a general election, instead of wipeout for FF, maybe it will be total wipeout.

Donnaghm · 23-10-2010 08:22PM

I'm just so glad FF's recent media blitz of RTE/Pravda where FF reps were doing the rounds on the Saturday Night Show and the LLS hasn't worked at all. Delightful.

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

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