Longrange predictions from abcd.com

BTW,

Last year In the West of Ireland, we had many weeks of continued sunny weather around May and June, weeks of it, summer started then.

phantom60 wrote: »

Does this mean we're not getting our few of weeks of good weather in September when the kids go back to school ?:p
Thats almost a tradition at this stage.....a wet August for the end of the kids' summer holidays, then a great September when they return to school !!

September has been over for two weeks

phantom60 wrote: »

Ahhhhh.......
Dunno what planet I'm on!!!
I came across this thread from a link and just assumed it was a new one.
I thought you were talking about the next year i.e. 12 months from now !!
:o:o

No, this year's summer panned out the way we predicted, which bodes well for our mild winter outlook

phantom60 wrote: »

Thats good news.
Does a milder winter generally mean we won't get a good summer tho? Or are they unrelated ?

I think it will be an amazing summer, with 3 good dry holiday-like spells. I have put a summary of months ahead for Ireland free on my website
www.predictweather.com
It's either on the home page or in Articles, can't remember now! (I did it some months ago)

Kenring wrote: »

I have put a summary of months ahead for Ireland free on my website
www.predictweather.com

Thanks Ken. Just checked it out.
I hope you're right!

derekon wrote: »

Eh no Ken, hope you are wrong !
Who wants a non descript mild winter?

Given Ken predicted "rain on and off" during November 09 (in reality the island was nearly submerged in water) and given he also predicted the odd cold spell during winter 09/10 (it was the coldest winter since 1963), I am still gonna go with my gut feeling that winter 10/11 in Ireland will be colder than average with some decent spells of snow.

My gut instinct is that the gulf stream is slowing somewhat and this will allow a plunge of Russian / Arctic air across to Ireland in the months ahead. The East Coast will be particularly at risk of snowfall.

I agree with Ken in one respect, it will not be as cold as last winter however there will be more snow!

Derek

Last winter would have been a mild one if it wasn't for the continuance of solar minimum, tipped by all to end about 9 months before it actually did. As a result all countries in both hemispheres experienced a colder winter than usual. We all miscalculated this overlay, but we had no way of doing otherwise, as solar cycles have such large deviation. That is not the case this year. Plus, I did get the timing right of the precipitation days, which is what I claim the method is best equipped for.

Snow in Ireland is very difficult to predict even a couple of days beforehand and Derek I would reckon you have as much idea yourself as to when it will fall as any of the experts. Even if the forecasters predict a "bitterly cold" week in winter it still does not guarentee snow due to atmospheric variances and the temperature of the sea especially the Atlantic as well as the constant changing of pressure.

An East/Southeast/Northeast type wind is the most favorable one for bringing snow to the East coast but the sea is very warm at present still so were it to get very cold as it is supposed to next week I think a bit of wintryness in the showers would be the best we could hope for though perhaps the mountain tops would get some "sneachta"

Later in the Winter would be the most favorable time for snow perhaps from January on if the sea were to cool significantly like it did last year after all the frosts. But a mix of mild and cool weather like we are likely to get for the coming few weeks will do nothing for the snow lovers I fear bar perhaps an odd wet snow shower in "any" week from the end of November to the end of 2010. After this Winter I think perhaps well appreciate just what an event the Winter of 2009/10 was.

I would respectfully disagree on some of the previous points raised here.

First of all, the solar minimum was actually widely expected to remain in place last winter and most people following this factor are talking about a very gradual increase to what may be, at most, a moderate or even weak solar activity peak around 2013-14. Not only that, but there were quite a few predictions made for a cold winter in the UK and Ireland in the autumn of 2009 and I can provide links if this isn't already known to people.

I should also make the point that low solar activity and below normal temperatures are only correlated at the longer time scale of decadal averages, using this factor year in and year out would result in a lot of missed forecasts, even if you were using it in the Maunder minimum, there were a few mild winters scattered among the generally cold ones, and as for the Dalton or other more recent (and less impressive) solar quiet periods, the hit or miss rate would approach 50% so we can't really say with a lot of confidence that continued quiet sun means another cold winter, it is more of a case of tilting the balance of probabilities.

As to "following herd instincts" or whatever, that remains to be seen, we are seeing a discussion here of what I call pre-validation which is essentially a hypothetical discussion that would have no meaning at all if the postulated mild winter fails to materialize. And by mild winter I would want to see an average 1 C degree above the 1961-90 averages for the period Dec 1 to Feb 28, just so we don't get into a post-argument about one mild month meaning a mild winter.

FWIW (herd mentality or not) I am continuing to believe that December and perhaps early January could be cold again, with a milder spell to follow.

Just on a statistical basis, I would suggest the dates around 15-17 December might be good for snowfall in the pattern I'm expecting.

Anyway, we are going to have a seasonal forecast contest which I will be announcing on this forum during the next few days, so all comers are welcome to test their forecasts against the rest of the crew and against the formidable consensus (who is in about 7th place in the monthly contest, showing that we often get a better result from the average of all forecasts than from any one forecast, but not always). Or we could just ask Danno.

I had mentioned the seasonal forecast before, but would say that the milder trend that may remove the cold regime would be based on the gradual increase in zonal index being caused by the strong La Nina event. It makes sense to me that this would break through a generally blocked pattern over the northeast Atlantic, especially if the cold becomes locked into eastern Siberia, Alaska and northwest Canada with an escape route towards the Great Lakes, a key part of my North American winter forecast. It's unlikely to be cold everywhere at the same time during that later winter stage. The reasoning behind the early cold has to do with a peak in blocking and retrograde index in late November and December.

We shall see, but any one seasonal forecast should not be used as a sort of make or break between methods, you have to consider a track record over ten or twenty years for that sort of determination. And sadly, I don't really think that anyone is keeping track of these things in an organized way, which means that a lot of people including Ken, myself and dozens of others sort of operate in a semi-vacuum in which attention tends to circulate around depending on who said what last. And that suggests to me that we will see only slow progress towards either consensus or proven methodology.

It's good to have a contrast in forecasts, if everyone was saying pretty well the same thing then we would learn nothing about comparative strengths or weaknesses of our various theories and underlying hypotheses.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would respectfully disagree on some of the previous points raised here.

First of all, the solar minimum was actually widely expected to remain in place last winter and most people following this factor are talking about a very gradual increase to what may be, at most, a moderate or even weak solar activity peak around 2013-14. Not only that, but there were quite a few predictions made for a cold winter in the UK and Ireland in the autumn of 2009 and I can provide links if this isn't already known to people.

I should also make the point that low solar activity and below normal temperatures are only correlated at the longer time scale of decadal averages, using this factor year in and year out would result in a lot of missed forecasts, even if you were using it in the Maunder minimum, there were a few mild winters scattered among the generally cold ones, and as for the Dalton or other more recent (and less impressive) solar quiet periods, the hit or miss rate would approach 50% so we can't really say with a lot of confidence that continued quiet sun means another cold winter, it is more of a case of tilting the balance of probabilities.

As to "following herd instincts" or whatever, that remains to be seen, we are seeing a discussion here of what I call pre-validation which is essentially a hypothetical discussion that would have no meaning at all if the postulated mild winter fails to materialize. And by mild winter I would want to see an average 1 C degree above the 1961-90 averages for the period Dec 1 to Feb 28, just so we don't get into a post-argument about one mild month meaning a mild winter.

FWIW (herd mentality or not) I am continuing to believe that December and perhaps early January could be cold again, with a milder spell to follow.

Just on a statistical basis, I would suggest the dates around 15-17 December might be good for snowfall in the pattern I'm expecting.

Anyway, we are going to have a seasonal forecast contest which I will be announcing on this forum during the next few days, so all comers are welcome to test their forecasts against the rest of the crew and against the formidable consensus (who is in about 7th place in the monthly contest, showing that we often get a better result from the average of all forecasts than from any one forecast, but not always). Or we could just ask Danno.

I had mentioned the seasonal forecast before, but would say that the milder trend that may remove the cold regime would be based on the gradual increase in zonal index being caused by the strong La Nina event. It makes sense to me that this would break through a generally blocked pattern over the northeast Atlantic, especially if the cold becomes locked into eastern Siberia, Alaska and northwest Canada with an escape route towards the Great Lakes, a key part of my North American winter forecast. It's unlikely to be cold everywhere at the same time during that later winter stage. The reasoning behind the early cold has to do with a peak in blocking and retrograde index in late November and December.

We shall see, but any one seasonal forecast should not be used as a sort of make or break between methods, you have to consider a track record over ten or twenty years for that sort of determination. And sadly, I don't really think that anyone is keeping track of these things in an organized way, which means that a lot of people including Ken, myself and dozens of others sort of operate in a semi-vacuum in which attention tends to circulate around depending on who said what last. And that suggests to me that we will see only slow progress towards either consensus or proven methodology.

It's good to have a contrast in forecasts, if everyone was saying pretty well the same thing then we would learn nothing about comparative strengths or weaknesses of our various theories and underlying hypotheses.

Well said, I agree with all your points. They are exactly my conclusions too and what I have been saying to radio stations etc, and which indicate to me you are probably using roughly the same factors as I am.
cheers
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com