Gene Derm wrote: » We expect the cold to peak at the end of this month when the Earth-Moon distance is the shortest for the year, after which the extreme cold should start to abate. We think the combination of closer perigeal Moon through the winter months, plus cooler Sun, plus declination of Mercury is to blame for the extra and unexpected cold this winter. In February, with the Moon in the south, the second and third weeks should be warmer, but spring minimums should rise only slowly, with frosts in some places continuing until the middle of April. This year should be cooler than average as the globe continues the cooling trend it has been experiencing over the past 9 years. Summer arrives for Ireland in the form of a fortnight of sunny weather from the last week of May onwards, then repeats a month later from the last week of June to the first week of July.You heard it here first..regardsKen Ringwww.predictweather.com
snow ghost wrote: » Gene Derm, Do you think the summer,as a whole, will on average be: a. Generally warmer, drier and sunnier than the usual Irish summer? or b. Generally milder and wetter (like last summer)? Same for spring? I look forward to seeing if the specifics - as there are a lot of generalisations - in your forecast transpire i.e. the sunny fortnights, although if I was a gambling man I'd bet they most probably will - given may and june usually best chance of sun in Ireland, except for the first week in August. Best of luck with your predictions.
snow ghost wrote: » Gene-Ken, I note that much long range alternative forecasting (e.g. Old Moore's Alnamac, etc) uses similar language patterns that clarvoyants use either conciously or unconciously ... i.e. they are so generalised that they can't be wrong. Saying cold weather will peak and then get warmer is much the same. I'm not doubting your ablities, just taking a healthy interest in how accurate they may be - as I would be with Met Eiureann - and for that I need to see more specific language so as to judge. All the best
rockdrummer wrote: » [QUOTEThis year should be cooler than average as the globe continues the cooling trend it has been experiencing over the past 9 years So whats this all about global warming then? Im confused.....
Gene Derm wrote: » You're joking, of course..! The world is cooling - scientific and geological fact. The world is warming - political nonsense to justify increased taxation, supported by state-funded scientists who are asked to find evidence of warming. Check outhttp://assassinationscience.com/climategate/ They are not asked to find no evidence. Look outside. Do you see any warming? No beaches in NZ or Australia are displaying rising sealevels. The poles are thickening. Google 'advancing glaciers'. Ask a geologist whether or not we are heading for the next ice age.Ken Ring
rockdrummer wrote: » Ah OK so I can f**k my carbon footprint to reverse this? Excellent, thanks...
Gene Derm wrote: » Summer arrives for Ireland in the form of a fortnight of sunny weather from the last week of May onwards, then repeats a month later from the last week of June to the first week of July.
phantom60 wrote: » Does this mean we're not getting our few of weeks of good weather in September when the kids go back to school ?:p Thats almost a tradition at this stage.....a wet August for the end of the kids' summer holidays, then a great September when they return to school !!
phantom60 wrote: » Ahhhhh....... Dunno what planet I'm on!!! I came across this thread from a link and just assumed it was a new one. I thought you were talking about the next year i.e. 12 months from now !!:o:o
phantom60 wrote: » Thats good news. Does a milder winter generally mean we won't get a good summer tho? Or are they unrelated ?
Kenring wrote: » I have put a summary of months ahead for Ireland free on my websitewww.predictweather.com
phantom60 wrote: » Thanks Ken. Just checked it out. I hope you're right!
derekon wrote: » Eh no Ken, hope you are wrong ! Who wants a non descript mild winter? Given Ken predicted "rain on and off" during November 09 (in reality the island was nearly submerged in water) and given he also predicted the odd cold spell during winter 09/10 (it was the coldest winter since 1963), I am still gonna go with my gut feeling that winter 10/11 in Ireland will be colder than average with some decent spells of snow. My gut instinct is that the gulf stream is slowing somewhat and this will allow a plunge of Russian / Arctic air across to Ireland in the months ahead. The East Coast will be particularly at risk of snowfall. I agree with Ken in one respect, it will not be as cold as last winter however there will be more snow! Derek
Kenring wrote: » Last winter would have been a mild one if it wasn't for the continuance of solar minimum, tipped by all to end about 9 months before it actually did. As a result all countries in both hemispheres experienced a colder winter than usual. We all miscalculated this overlay, but we had no way of doing otherwise, as solar cycles have such large deviation. That is not the case this year. Plus, I did get the timing right of the precipitation days, which is what I claim the method is best equipped for.
derekon wrote: » Ok fair points Ken. I am a bit of a novice at this (my wife thinks I am an expert!), and am probably blinded by some degree for my love of cold weather and snow in general. What is the best time for snow in Eastern Ireland (I am located inland south Dublin not too far from the Dublin mountains but near sea level) in the upcoming winter ? Derek
Kenring wrote: » There are only two significantly cold intervals coming up this winter. Email me privately on ken@weatherman.co.nz I'll gladly tell you. That goes for anyone. But this board tends to treat my predictions unkindly so I'm keeping out of it. ken Ringwww.predictweather.com
thetonynator wrote: » Posting your website link at the end of every post despite the site having a sig facility available isn't exactly ''keeping out of it''.
M.T. Cranium wrote: » I would respectfully disagree on some of the previous points raised here. First of all, the solar minimum was actually widely expected to remain in place last winter and most people following this factor are talking about a very gradual increase to what may be, at most, a moderate or even weak solar activity peak around 2013-14. Not only that, but there were quite a few predictions made for a cold winter in the UK and Ireland in the autumn of 2009 and I can provide links if this isn't already known to people. I should also make the point that low solar activity and below normal temperatures are only correlated at the longer time scale of decadal averages, using this factor year in and year out would result in a lot of missed forecasts, even if you were using it in the Maunder minimum, there were a few mild winters scattered among the generally cold ones, and as for the Dalton or other more recent (and less impressive) solar quiet periods, the hit or miss rate would approach 50% so we can't really say with a lot of confidence that continued quiet sun means another cold winter, it is more of a case of tilting the balance of probabilities. As to "following herd instincts" or whatever, that remains to be seen, we are seeing a discussion here of what I call pre-validation which is essentially a hypothetical discussion that would have no meaning at all if the postulated mild winter fails to materialize. And by mild winter I would want to see an average 1 C degree above the 1961-90 averages for the period Dec 1 to Feb 28, just so we don't get into a post-argument about one mild month meaning a mild winter. FWIW (herd mentality or not) I am continuing to believe that December and perhaps early January could be cold again, with a milder spell to follow. Just on a statistical basis, I would suggest the dates around 15-17 December might be good for snowfall in the pattern I'm expecting. Anyway, we are going to have a seasonal forecast contest which I will be announcing on this forum during the next few days, so all comers are welcome to test their forecasts against the rest of the crew and against the formidable consensus (who is in about 7th place in the monthly contest, showing that we often get a better result from the average of all forecasts than from any one forecast, but not always). Or we could just ask Danno. I had mentioned the seasonal forecast before, but would say that the milder trend that may remove the cold regime would be based on the gradual increase in zonal index being caused by the strong La Nina event. It makes sense to me that this would break through a generally blocked pattern over the northeast Atlantic, especially if the cold becomes locked into eastern Siberia, Alaska and northwest Canada with an escape route towards the Great Lakes, a key part of my North American winter forecast. It's unlikely to be cold everywhere at the same time during that later winter stage. The reasoning behind the early cold has to do with a peak in blocking and retrograde index in late November and December. We shall see, but any one seasonal forecast should not be used as a sort of make or break between methods, you have to consider a track record over ten or twenty years for that sort of determination. And sadly, I don't really think that anyone is keeping track of these things in an organized way, which means that a lot of people including Ken, myself and dozens of others sort of operate in a semi-vacuum in which attention tends to circulate around depending on who said what last. And that suggests to me that we will see only slow progress towards either consensus or proven methodology. It's good to have a contrast in forecasts, if everyone was saying pretty well the same thing then we would learn nothing about comparative strengths or weaknesses of our various theories and underlying hypotheses.
