New TV3 opinion poll

whatawaster · 23-09-2010 04:55PM #1

http://tv3.ie/article.php?article_id=45040&locID=1.2.141.&pagename=home

A national opinion poll commissioned by TV3 News has found that 71% of those surveyed believe the Taoiseach lost credibility as a result of his now infamous radio interview last week.

The poll was conducted by Millward Brown Lansdowne, who contacted one thousand voters nationwide. It also has bad news for Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and very good news for Eamon Gilmore and the Labour Party.

Key findings of the poll were as follows

* Our tumultuous times reveal that many potential changes in our political system and institutions may be desired by the Irish electorate.

* The Taoiseach's interview may have mattered to them personally but most say they have already made up their minds how to vote. A Labour Taoiseach is now a possibility. Our national poll reveals an electorate looking to break the two and half party system yet are also wedded to the spending cuts agenda of the current government. Who leads the next government looks to be the biggest question now facing the Irish people.

* With 35% of first preference votes the Labour party have emerged as the strongest party in what is an extremely competitive election scenario. It can now credibly assert its potential to lead the next government.

* Fine Gael seems not to have capitalised on the dissatisfaction with the government that it would have hoped to, and its bid to be the largest party in the next Dáil is under considerable threat.

* Fianna Fáil's position at 22% is consistent with their standings since the economic crisis began. Given the events preceding the poll the party may be encouraged to have maintained this level.

* Eamon Gilmore is also the most popular party leader for Taoiseach - underlining Labour's surge. Thirty six percent opt for him, compared to 19% for Enda Kenny and just 11% for Brian Cowen. The weakness in the Fine Gael vote is highlighted by the fact that only 53% of Fine Gael voters opt for Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.

* Eamon Gilmore has easily the highest satisfaction rating of any leader (58% Net), compared to just 24% for Enda Kenny and 18% for Brian Cowen. In total just 11% express satisfaction with the government.

* In relation to the Taoiseach's interview, 43% say that the issue matters to them personally - revealing the degree of seriousness with which the whole episode has been received. Fine Gael supporters are the most exercised (55%) compared to 32% for Fianna Fáil.

* However a large majority (88%) say the issue has not changed how they will vote - given the poor result for Fianna Fáil it is reasonable to speculate that most voters had already made up their minds.

* Seven in 10 people believe that the Taoiseach lost credibility over the affair - this includes 59% of Fianna Fáil supporters.

* A small majority believe that Brian Cowen should not continue as leader of Fianna Fáil, however support for the Taoiseach among Fianna Fáil voters remains robust (73%). Brian Lenihan is the clearly preferred successor amongst those who believe that the Taoiseach should go (46%), compared to just 15% for Micheál Martin.

* In relation to the budget, people are strongly of the view that the emphasis should be on cutting expenditure (57%), rather than raising taxes (17%). Twenty three percent of Labour party supporters opt for raising taxes, but the cutting expenditure route is preferred across all key demographic groups - this despite the clear desire for a change of government.

excluding "don't knows"

Labour 35%
FG 30%
FF 22%

FG leadership change really is vital.

mike65 · 23-09-2010 05:01PM

Opposition - FG terrible, SF terrible, Labour laughing but can they harvest the vote potential across the country, many non urban areas are rather Labour thin. FF couldn't get too much worse while the Greens will be lucky to escape with 1 seat come the election.

Lenny Lovett · 23-09-2010 05:06PM

I'm amazed FF have managed to get as high as 22%. The thought of a Labour Government scares me a bit though. True what the poster above says though. FG need to get rid of Kenny quick sharp if they're to remain ahead of FF.

bijapos · 23-09-2010 05:19PM

PDF here with more info in it.

http://content.tv3.ie/downloads/tv3_national_opinion_poll_23rd_feb2010_part_1.pdf

Big question is how will Labours 35% translate into seats? FF doing well in the circumstances should guarantee them a seat in pretty much every constituency and two in the bigger ones, for FG its a disaster, hopefully this means the end of the two party state. Greens as mike65 said 1, maybe 2 seats.

Biggins · 23-09-2010 05:31PM

The poll might and SHOULD be a wake-up call to FG that Kenny just is not pulling in the support.
Will they act upon it, well that decision will decide if they can make a comeback or not in time for the next election.

If Kenny is still leading FG, I expect them myself not to gain any majority or even have the numbers to form a coalition.

hotmail.com · 23-09-2010 06:00PM

My reading:

FF - Although this is a terrible poll for FF, the fact that they've stayed over 20% will be a relief.

FG - FG can no longer say they are the largest political party in Ireland, as this is the second poll to confirm that Labour has passed them out. FG should be on at least 40% now and this has to be attributed to their weak leader.

Lab - Stunning result for the Labour Party. The second poll to put them as the most popular party in the country. The aspiration of a Labour Taoiseach is getting closer - but does Labour have the candidates and the resources to reflect these poll numbers in a general election?

Greens - They are within the margin of error. Says it all.

SF - Disastrous poll numbers for them. It would seem that SF voters are switching to Labour. Gerry Adams is a huge liability and the general lack of charisma in the party.

Independents - We could have a dozen independents in the next Dail.

12% said their voting intentions has changed since the Morning Ireland interview - that's huge given it was just one interview.

Result: FF - plow on as long you can to claim the salaries
FG - ditch the leader (or maybe Kenny will take the hint)
Lab - maintain the high level of soundbites and avoid answering any questions on Labour policy..it's working so far.
Greens - bye bye
SF - ditch the leader and ehhh take charisma tablets

TippFan77 · 23-09-2010 06:21PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

My reading:

FF - Although this is a terrible poll for FF, the fact that they've stayed over 20% will be a relief.

FG - FG can no longer say they are the largest political party in Ireland, as this is the second poll to confirm that Labour has passed them out. FG should be on at least 40% now and this has to be attributed to their weak leader.

Lab - Stunning result for the Labour Party. The second poll to put them as the most popular party in the country. The aspiration of a Labour Taoiseach is getting closer - but does Labour have the candidates and the resources to reflect these poll numbers in a general election?

Greens - They are within the margin of error. Says it all.

SF - Disastrous poll numbers for them. It would seem that SF voters are switching to Labour. Gerry Adams is a huge liability and the general lack of charisma in the party.

Independents - We could have a dozen independents in the next Dail.

12% said their voting intentions has changed since the Morning Ireland interview - that's huge given it was just one interview.

Result: FF - plow on as long you can to claim the salaries
FG - ditch the leader (or maybe Kenny will take the hint)
Lab - maintain the high level of soundbites and avoid answering any questions on Labour policy..it's working so far.
Greens - bye bye
SF - ditch the leader and ehhh take charisma tablets

I wouldn't write off the Greens. They need to get across the fact that they've many achievements to their credit...(planning reform, Civil Partnership law, Smart meters, free to air rugby, etc)...I'd like to see them make some progress on corporate donations and hare coursing. Coursing isn't an issue of great national importance, but it arouses utter disgust in most people and most of us want it either drastically reformed or banned.

A few really topnotch "Green-like"achievements would secure their survival, or better than that, and maybe even let people see how much of a difference they have made in government.

rightwingdub · 23-09-2010 06:27PM

Didn't gilmore just announce that Labour are only running 65 candidates in the next election. I can't see Labour winning more than 35-40 seats at the next election. Gilmore is the biggest spoofer I've ever come across in Irish politics and thats nothing to be proud of.

Coillte_Bhoy · 23-09-2010 06:27PM

Biggins wrote: »

If Kenny is still leading FG, I expect them myself not to gain any majority or even have the numbers to form a coalition.

I dont understand your point. Of course they will have the numbers to enter a coallition.

hotmail.com · 23-09-2010 06:28PM

TippFan77 wrote: »

I wouldn't write off the Greens. They need to get across the fact that they've many achievements to their credit...(planning reform, Civil Partnership law, Smart meters, free to air rugby, etc)...I'd like to see them make some progress on corporate donations and hare coursing. Coursing isn't an issue of great national importance, but it arouses utter disgust in most people and most of us want it either drastically reformed or banned.

A few really topnotch "Green-like"achievements would secure their survival, or better than that, and maybe even let people see how much of a difference they have made in government.

Smart meters and free to air rugby aren't going to get any votes. Labour supports full civil marriage so I'm not sure the civil partnership bill will gather any votes either.

Supporting an unpopular government and Taoiseach surely has to be the most memorable aspect of the Greens in the last few years.

The rotating ministers suggestion damaged the credibility of the party altogether as well.

Lenny Lovett · 23-09-2010 06:53PM

TippFan77 wrote: »

I wouldn't write off the Greens. They need to get across the fact that they've many achievements to their credit...(planning reform, Civil Partnership law, Smart meters, free to air rugby, etc)..

Planning reform and the Civil Partnership issues will only endear them to a very small monortity. Smart Metres? And as for the Free to Air Rugby: anyone involved in Rugby (and that's a damn site more than interested in same sex marriages) will tell you that the loss of TV revenue to Irish Rugby will cause major damage to the game and the country's performance (in rugby terms) in general. Another silly ill-thought out policy.

TippFan77 wrote: »

I'd like to see them make some progress on corporate donations and hare coursing. Coursing isn't an issue of great national importance, but it arouses utter disgust in most people and most of us want it either drastically reformed or banned.

I doubt your assertion that "it arouses utter disgust in most people and most of us want it either drastically reformed or banned" is plausable. In reality most people in Ireland today have much more important things to worry about than a dog chasing a rabbit.

TippFan77 wrote: »

A few really topnotch "Green-like"achievements would secure their survival, or better than that, and maybe even let people see how much of a difference they have made in government.

They've had a few years to achieve this but they wasted their time propping up FF so for that alone they deserve to follow the PDs into the political sunset.

hotmail.com wrote: »

The rotating ministers suggestion damaged the credibility of the party altogether as well.

Another ridiculous policy.

Biggins · 23-09-2010 07:26PM

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I dont understand your point. Of course they will have the numbers to enter a coallition.

There might be a situation where Labour (if they sustain their %) can on their own gain the numbers needed and/or go with independents, etc.
I suspect that Labour might just increase their rising numbers when they see their present rating at the mo' go higher.

Its just a possibility.

The main point is that Kenny needs to go.

Mr.Micro · 23-09-2010 08:20PM

Biggins wrote: »

There might be a situation where Labour (if they sustain their %) can on their own gain the numbers needed and/or go with independents, etc.
I suspect that Labour might just increase their rising numbers when they see their present rating at the mo' go higher.

Its just a possibility.

The main point is that Kenny needs to go.

It probably has been said ad nauseum, Enda is a nice bloke but he has no charisma and leader of FG is one thing but when it comes to the punters er... I mean voters and a new Taoiseach, this deficient trait in Enda may be prove decisive. Enda should have stepped down IMO for the good of the party.

irishh_bob · 23-09-2010 08:34PM

rightwingdub wrote: »

Didn't gilmore just announce that Labour are only running 65 candidates in the next election. I can't see Labour winning more than 35-40 seats at the next election. Gilmore is the biggest spoofer I've ever come across in Irish politics and thats nothing to be proud of.

yes but he knows one thing , that irish people absolutley love being told what they want to hear

rightwingdub · 23-09-2010 10:23PM

irishh_bob wrote: »

yes but he knows one thing , that irish people absolutley love being told what they want to hear

Thats the problem, I wonder what Gilmores satisfaction ratings will be like after 12-18 months in government after all the bulls**t has been exposed from Gilmores mouth.

Liam Byrne · 23-09-2010 10:29PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Smart meters and free to air rugby aren't going to get any votes. Labour supports full civil marriage so I'm not sure the civil partnership bill will gather any votes either.

Supporting an unpopular government and Taoiseach surely has to be the most memorable aspect of the Greens in the last few years.

The rotating ministers suggestion damaged the credibility of the party altogether as well.

Free-to-air rugby might, if they hadn't supported NAMA & Anglo and FF, and ensured that anything we save from having rugby FTA is more than offset by additional taxes and charges.

Citizen_Cutback · 23-09-2010 10:46PM

Fine Gael have a range of horrifically bad candidates throughout the country who do not appeal to voters other than their core vote. The one safe seat per constituency model has failed to select vibrant candidates.

Needless to say Lucinda Cretin and Simple Simon Coveney are Fools.
Richard Bruton has not been good or convincing as Finance spokesperson.
Leo "The Lion" Varadker frightens a lot of people.
Brian Boru Hayes is a dangerous fool.
Enda Wendy Kenny is the least of their problems!

Only Michael Noonan, James Reilly, Alan Shatter and possibly Phil Hogan have any credibility.

It is probably better to vote Labour, even if they do not have enough candidates yet, because their new candidates are likely to have energy and enthusiasm.

Sinn Fein to pick up Labour transfers!

hotmail.com · 23-09-2010 11:25PM

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Free-to-air rugby might, if they hadn't supported NAMA & Anglo and FF, and ensured that anything we save from having rugby FTA is more than offset by additional taxes and charges.

I really doubt free to air rugby will have any bearing on voting intentions - I think the unemployment rate, the state of the economy, health, education etc, will far out rank whether or not rugby is on RTE or Sky Sports. It's completely trivial in comparison.

jank · 24-09-2010 12:58AM

Good poll for Labour but remember the Nick Clegg effect? Very hard to see the good poll numbers turn into seats.
It will still be a FG/Labour government with FG having more seats in the next dail.

Liam Byrne · 24-09-2010 03:42AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I really doubt free to air rugby will have any bearing on voting intentions - I think the unemployment rate, the state of the economy, health, education etc, will far out rank whether or not rugby is on RTE or Sky Sports. It's completely trivial in comparison.

That was my point; any small good that they have done far, far outweighs the damage.

TippFan77 · 25-09-2010 06:33PM

Lenny Lovett wrote: »

Planning reform and the Civil Partnership issues will only endear them to a very small monortity. Smart Metres? And as for the Free to Air Rugby: anyone involved in Rugby (and that's a damn site more than interested in same sex marriages) will tell you that the loss of TV revenue to Irish Rugby will cause major damage to the game and the country's performance (in rugby terms) in general. Another silly ill-thought out policy.

I doubt your assertion that "it arouses utter disgust in most people and most of us want it either drastically reformed or banned" is plausable. In reality most people in Ireland today have much more important things to worry about than a dog chasing a rabbit.

They've had a few years to achieve this but they wasted their time propping up FF so for that alone they deserve to follow the PDs into the political sunset.

Another ridiculous policy.

Actually, opinion polls consistent show that a big majority of Irish people want hare coursing banned. That doesn't mean they deem it more important than those other issues you mention.

Free to air? The Greens have rightly sided with the vast majority of our people who feel entitled to watch those games without having to pay per view, especially in these recessionary times. The right of say, an elderly rugby fan in a nursing home to enjoy his beloved sport is a darn sight more important than that the now largely discredited claim by the FAI that TV access needs to be restricted for the "greater good" of the game.

"propping up FF?" Any coalition government involves two or more parties governing together. And let's fact it: the tough but necessary decisions being taken by the present coalition would equaly have to be taken by any other combination of parties.

It's easy for the likes of E Gilmore to holler from the sidelines while not offering any clear set of policies. I predict that when the real pre-election campaign gets underway, Labour will be badly exposed for the populist all things to all men the party has become...And isn't is intriguing that three sitting Labour TDS have already announced they won't be contesting the next election?? Oh and...notice the Red Sea poll results...just heard about that on RTE this evening...

The Volt · 25-09-2010 06:56PM

Sunday Business Post tomorrow is reporting 24% support for FF.......perhaps a separate state should be created and these people deposited there...Longford perhaps..

Liam Byrne · 25-09-2010 07:43PM

Voltwad wrote: »

Sunday Business Post tomorrow is reporting 24% support for FF.......perhaps a separate state should be created and these people deposited there...Longford perhaps..

Given that you mentioned "depositing" them there, I think we should put them all into Anglo - alongside the money that FF is robbing from us in order to give it to them.

The Volt · 25-09-2010 07:47PM

Wherever they go, 24% of the population are standing on a cliff edge with their finger in their ears singing 'lalalalala'

Liam Byrne · 25-09-2010 08:19PM

Voltwad wrote: »

Wherever they go, 24% of the population are standing on a cliff edge with their finger in their ears singing 'lalalalala'

That sounds great (all we need to hope for is a strong gust of wind) but unfortunately they're all tied by rope to the rest of us

mike65 · 25-09-2010 09:39PM

SBP poll

FG 31 (-2)
FF24,(nc)
LAB 23 (-4)
SF 10 (+2)
GR 3 (+1)
Oths 9 (+3)

Cowen as Taoiseach

YES 19
NO 64
Don't Know 17

yoshytoshy · 25-09-2010 09:49PM

These polls are absolutely useless. Morale boosters at best.

The weather would have an effect on 1000 peoples decisions , on who to vote for.

Theres loads of people who are willing to vote for fianna fail ,because of the scraps they have left. Next year will weed out the sheizters for good.

Biggins · 25-09-2010 10:14PM

A new opinion poll suggests that support for Fianna Fáil is holding steady, while Fine Gael remains the most popular party.

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post also shows Labour support down since June, in contrast to another national opinion poll just two days ago.

Thursday's Millward Brown Lansdowne poll put the party in first place. However, Red C found Labour support had dropped four points since June, to 23%, a point behind Fianna Fáil.
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Support for Fianna Fáil is unchanged, indicating that the controversy over the Taoiseach's Morning Ireland interview has had little impact on voting intentions.

Fine Gael will be pleased with this poll - although they are down two points since June, they are in a commanding lead, with the support of 31% of voters.

The greens gain one to three, Sinn Féin are up two to ten, and Independents and others increase by three to nine.

Only 19% of voters say they have confidence in the Taoiseach, compared to 64% who do not and 17% who do not know, although a majority say a change in leader would not make them more likely to vote for Fianna Fáil

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0925/poll.html

New TV3 opinion poll

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