IF THE IMF ENTER IRELAND, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

stephentbb2000 · 17-09-2010 09:29PM #1

What will they do, where will they cut, who will they get rid of?

admiralofthefleet · 17-09-2010 09:30PM

there will be drastic cuts to social welfare and the public wage bill, for a start

douglashyde · 17-09-2010 09:30PM

Good decisions.

Zynks · 17-09-2010 09:39PM

There will be someone with plenty of balls to do what has to be done. But it won't be pretty.

Godge · 17-09-2010 09:48PM

Minimum wage cut
Social Welfare cut
Public service pay cut

Clampdown on tax credits
Everyone brought within the tax net

Seth Brundle · 17-09-2010 10:23PM

The numbers within the public serviuce would probably be slashed also

the_dark_side · 17-09-2010 10:35PM

can the IMF go after savings accounts? expropriation etc

dunsandin · 17-09-2010 10:36PM

So, what your're all saying then, is its all good?? Bring it on. Anybody got any negatives?? Will FF remain in power? Will our bankers still prosper?Will the vested interests still remain vested?

tonedef · 17-09-2010 10:49PM

Godge wrote: »

Minimum wage cut
Social Welfare cut
Public service pay cut

Clampdown on tax credits
Everyone brought within the tax net

Why cut the minimum wage? How does that improve the government's finances?

I do think that the minimum wage in this country is too high and has shattered any hope we have of being competitive is certain sectors but I don't see why the IMF would include it in their cuts is they did take control.

In terms of balancing the books would the IMF not leave the minimum wage as it is and just make sure everyone on it is taxed?

Mrs. Delany · 17-09-2010 11:03PM

Out of curiosity, what do you think is an acceptable wage for someone doing a non-professional job in the public sector? Also, do you think the country would be a better place to live in if the IMF cut spending on Health and Education?

stephentbb2000 · 17-09-2010 11:12PM

1. Minimum wage for the dole, there should be categories, not everybody has the same financial requirements.

2. Average wage at the moment for an unskilled public worker without including benefits such as service is around €370 - €460 after tax.

3. IMF has no political policies

4. Public sector employment will be bashed

5. Banking sector pay and bonuses will be bashed.

6. Senior public sector pay will be bashed.

7. Strict tax policies will probably be imposed.

8. Will we escape as a country????????????

dunsandin · 17-09-2010 11:21PM

Escape as in? Reality may dawn perhaps.

Stinicker · 18-09-2010 12:06AM

I was over in Hungary last year where they have called in the IMF and it was bleak and disgusting. Old people on the street begging because their pensions are worthless (having been cut 50% and suffering the effects of a devalued currency, women on the street prostituting themselves to survive, this is what the IMF will do and while it is not something to be welcomed I do welcome it because...

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

The high levels of dole have saved this government for two years now and in effect they have bought the peoples silence, I want to see the bankers and the politicians jailed for treason to our country and we must punish Brian Cowen, Bertie Ahern and Lenihan (if he doesn't die first), they have caused the same harm to Ireland as many others throughout History; Tito, Mussolini, Robert Mugabe, Idi Amin, Fianna Fail have betrayed the Irish people and destroyed our Future and our childrens ontop of it.

Ireland will be bankrupt before December, and the budget may bring down the Government, FG can do no different in fact they will preside over the legacy of the collapse of Irish society and the FF spin doctors (if the party is not banned) will direct much of society ill will onto the FG party who did not cause this. By February we will be staring at an economic situation last seen in pre-war Germany during the days of the Weimar Republic which crushed a nation after the Great Depression and drove Germany to Nazism and they were determined to punish those who humiliated and wrecked their great nation. Britain and <snip> Bankers having caused the collapse, WWII was caused by economics at its core.

Fianna Fail have done more damage to our economy in such a short period of time than 800 years of British rape and pillage could ever achieve. The British at least tried to build an economy despite their bigoted and heinous ways, they never set out to deliberately wreck the Irish economy to protect a vested interest in the same manner Fianna Fail did. Ireland is dead for a generation and we may yet drag the Euro down with us and history will judge us by whether the Irish people will stand up and try to stop this.

Brussels Sprout · 18-09-2010 12:18AM

the_dark_side wrote: »

can the IMF go after savings accounts? expropriation etc

No, you're only worry with savings is either

A: The banking guarantee lapses and the banks collapse.

or

B: We pull out of the euro and the bank accounts are frozen whilst our new currency is devalued (similar to what happened in Argentina in 2001).

MrDarcy · 18-09-2010 12:20AM

Stinicker wrote: »

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

Do you remember this?!?!?

http://www.getupstandup.ie/

Yeah the ICTU organised campaign that was meant to get people standing up for decency in our economic policies, standing up for a fairer society, standing up for working people...

I wonder what happened to that?!?!? Funny it seems to have died a death with the Croke Park deal, it's a motherfu*king disgrace. This is the depth of genuine concern that those who claim to inherit the spirit of Larkin and Connelly, actually have for this state. Stand up Get Up, and then sit back down again when the immediate threat to your 2010 and 1011 salary is put to flight, but as for raping your children's future in order to bail out an utterly f*cked up banking system, fu*cked up through sheer wanton greed, let's just leave that be for the time being, if the economy improves sure it might just go away...

RichardAnd · 18-09-2010 12:20AM

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.
PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.
Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.
Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.
Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

MrDarcy · 18-09-2010 12:25AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.

PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.

Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.

Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.

Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

Regrettably though, the IMF will not be cutting the rent or the living costs of the person on the dole that has been cut by 50%. So if you are on 196 a week and you are on 100 Euro a week subsequent to the IMF forcing change, your rent is still around 100 Euro a week.

Zynks · 18-09-2010 12:35AM

And so bedsits will become a common sight again.

who_ru · 18-09-2010 12:49AM

i think any potential investor in the country will be put off so we can kiss goodbye any news FDI jobs.

lets not be too fatalistic - the IMF cannot march in - they can only be invited in if there is no other prospect of the Irish Govt being able to borrow money from the bond markets.

i'm very nervous about this really - it's quite scary.

i agree with another poster who said we will require outsiders to impose these cuts as FF will not do it - they have only ever ran the economy in their own interests and those who are connected to them. the social partnership model has been a failure, to which the trade unions have also contributed.

exactly where are our trade union leaders now when the workers of this country are on the brink of financial ruin - many already are anyway.

and of course FF were voted in they didn't just take power - 3 elections over the last 12 odd years and 3 times elected. we are complicit in our onw downfall.

Stinicker · 18-09-2010 12:51AM

MrDarcy wrote: »

Do you remember this?!?!?

http://www.getupstandup.ie/

Yeah the ICTU organised campaign that was meant to get people standing up for decency in our economic policies, standing up for a fairer society, standing up for working people...

I wonder what happened to that?!?!? Funny it seems to have died a death with the Croke Park deal, it's a motherfu*king disgrace. This is the depth of genuine concern that those who claim to inherit the spirit of Larkin and Connelly, actually have for this state. Stand up Get Up, and then sit back down again when the immediate threat to your 2010 and 1011 salary is put to flight, but as for raping your children's future in order to bail out an utterly f*cked up banking system, fu*cked up through sheer wanton greed, let's just leave that be for the time being, if the economy improves sure it might just go away...

The Unions in Ireland are nothing but a shower of hypocrites who lapped up the cream Bertie Ahern gave them when he allowed the Public service to swell out like an obese person on the steriods that was never ending tax revenue from the boom. These morons were protesting for the status quo and to actually entrench us further in this mess by borrowing more instead of cutting back.

What we need in Ireland is a type of tea party movement aimed at firstly removing Fianna Fail from power and dismantling the party and banning it. Then we need to tackle massive unemployment and then look at what remnants of the welfare state can be saved.

Personally I am in favour of saving pensions (as in old peoples) not Fitzpatricks multi million euro pension, pensions and dignity for our elderly and increased security and gardai presence should be the only vestige of Government intervention in our lives everything else must go, but firstly we must get rid of FF and both the leftist and populist mantra so prevelent in Irish life that have wrecked us. Civil Unrest and even all out conflict could very easily develop out of this mess. One thing is for sure the future is bleak and we will all be alot lot poorer.

RichardAnd · 18-09-2010 12:52AM

Stinicker wrote: »

I was over in Hungary last year where they have called in the IMF and it was bleak and disgusting. Old people on the street begging because their pensions are worthless (having been cut 50% and suffering the effects of a devalued currency, women on the street prostituting themselves to survive, this is what the IMF will do and while it is not something to be welcomed I do welcome it because...

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

The high levels of dole have saved this government for two years now and in effect they have bought the peoples silence, I want to see the bankers and the politicians jailed for treason to our country and we must punish Brian Cowen, Bertie Ahern and Lenihan (if he doesn't die first), they have caused the same harm to Ireland as many others throughout History; Tito, Mussolini, Robert Mugabe, Idi Amin, Fianna Fail have betrayed the Irish people and destroyed our Future and our childrens ontop of it.

Ireland will be bankrupt before December, and the budget may bring down the Government, FG can do no different in fact they will preside over the legacy of the collapse of Irish society and the FF spin doctors (if the party is not banned) will direct much of society ill will onto the FG party who did not cause this. By February we will be staring at an economic situation last seen in pre-war Germany during the days of the Weimar Republic which crushed a nation after the Great Depression and drove Germany to Nazism and they were determined to punish those who humiliated and wrecked their great nation. Britain Bankers having caused the collapse, WWII was caused by economics at its core.

Fianna Fail have done more damage to our economy in such a short period of time than 800 years of British rape and pillage could ever achieve. The British at least tried to build an economy despite their bigoted and heinous ways, they never set out to deliberately wreck the Irish economy to protect a vested interest in the same manner Fianna Fail did. Ireland is dead for a generation and we may yet drag the Euro down with us and history will judge us by whether the Irish people will stand up and try to stop this.

You need to calm down. The IMF may be here before christmas but if you are in a pre-war germany state before easter I would be amazed (and horrified). If you want an example of what will happen, look at Greece. What happened in germany happened in a totally different world so the situations aren't comparable.

I also don't hold that FF set out to ruin the nation. Rather, this mess was caused simply by good old Irishness. FF led the nation in p!ssing borrowed money against the wall but God help anyone who warned we were living beyond our means 5 years ago.

So yes, FF were driving the van when it hit the wall but we gave them the keys whilst we settled down in the back with a bottle o' Jack.

ei.sdraob · 18-09-2010 08:41AM

IF THE IMF ENTER IRELAND, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

WE ALL WILL BE SHOUTING ON THE INTERNETS FORUMS :P

ei.sdraob · 18-09-2010 09:17AM

People

if the IMF are invited in (they dont break the door down like some sort of special forces and take over now!)

they will be used as scapegoats for everything that went wrong before their arrival

the reason IMF got a bad name is because bad governments run countries into the ground, then pass on the buck and responsibility and wash their hands of the blame, whats worse FF are still unwilling to admit its all their fault...

im actually reading an interesting book now that touches in one chapter on Argentine default and history, very interesting stuff and i cant help constantly contrasting and comparing

anyways like Greece it most likely be an IMF + EU bailout with strings attached here in Ireland

LevelSpirit · 18-09-2010 10:00AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.

PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.

Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.

Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.

Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

I think this is the best post in this thread.

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future, apart from scared people on internet fora talking talking about it. But IF THEY DID by some remote chance end up running the country.

The only think I would not agree with in Richards post is that tax rates wouldnt actually increase for every one. I think they would. By a lot.
Those who are paying little or no tax now would suffer the most.

Imagine those on €30K - €35K who at the moment dont pay enough tax to support donkey in a field, never mind the public services they consume themselves. They pay about 1/6 of their income in tax now. Wait til its 1/3 like what a person on €60k pays. Well if the IMF were here those only paying 1/3 or less would probably end up harder hit than those who actually do pay a decent amount of tax at the moment.
They would end up in the higher bracket along with a higher standard rate.
I think the hit on their take home pay would be massive. They might well be €5000 or more worse off in take home pay.

People on the dole would suffer too. Social welfare would probably be similar to that in the UK.

Be careful what you wish for.

Brussels Sprout · 18-09-2010 10:06AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

You need to calm down.

When the biggest harbinger of doom on the forum is telling you to calm down then you know you've gone too far!

(no offence intended Richard

)

danbohan · 18-09-2010 10:08AM

LevelSpirit wrote: »

I think this is the best post in this thread.

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future, apart from scared people on internet fora talking talking about it. But IF THEY DID by some remote chance end up running the country.

The only think I would not agree with in Richards post is that tax rates wouldnt actually increase for every one. I think they would. By a lot.
Those who are paying little or no tax now would suffer the most.

Imagine those on €30K - €35K who at the moment dont pay enough tax to support donkey in a field, never mind the public services they consume themselves. They pay about 1/6 of their income in tax now. Wait til its 1/3 like what a person on €60k pays. Well if the IMF were here those only paying 1/3 or less would probably end up harder hit than those who actually do pay a decent amount of tax at the moment.
They would end up in the higher bracket along with a higher standard rate.
I think the hit on their take home pay would be massive. They might well be €5000 or more worse off in take home pay.

People on the dole would suffer too. Social welfare would probably be similar to that in the UK.

Be careful what you wish for.

whos wishing for it ?

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future,

and you base that on what exactly .

LevelSpirit · 18-09-2010 10:18AM

danbohan wrote: »

whos wishing for it ?

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future,

and you base that on what exactly .

Every keyboard warrior on boards is wishing for it, just so they can say "I told you so".

There is nothing to suggest the IMF will feature in Irelands future at all. This is just another thread like the ones over the last two years heralding the IMF Apocalypse within the next few months. It will be followed by another one next year with exactly the same posts about the IMF coming in before christmas.

Ireland is a country with a deficit and an economic hill to climb. Its not the first. It wont be the last. Thats all it is.

Im willing to bet major money that the IMF will not be here this year, or next year, and i will roll that bet over each year, if someone can can find me a bookie that will take that bet. Do Paddy Power have that bet?

5live · 18-09-2010 02:47PM

I remember reading a few years ago that health spending would take the biggest hit when IMF come to call. Now while i am in favour of cuts i dont want a situation where people cannot afford basic medicines. I dread to think of a situation where diabetics like myself cannot afford meds as happens in parts of society in USA. It would be better if we did cuts ourselves but what party WANTS to be disbanded after being in power( no PD jokes!). But increasingly the option of deciding our own policies is sliding down the creek and we only able to use our hands in the merde to paddle

TheInquisitor · 18-09-2010 02:55PM

The first thing the IMF would do is tear up the croke park agreement.

ardmacha · 18-09-2010 03:35PM

Every keyboard warrior on boards is wishing for it, just so they can say "I told you so".

A feature of this forum are people who dislike those working in the service of the public or those on the dole or whoever. They hope for some kind of economic distaster so that these groups will get their comeuppance.

Ireland doesn't need to borrow any more money in 2010. In a couple of months there will be a definitive figure on the bank losses and a proposed budget. Interest rates will drop, with a bit of behind the scenes activity by the ECB. Provided the international economy stays on course, there will be whinging in general and further threads about the IMF, but they will only come here if their plane happens to refuel at Shannon.

Brussels Sprout · 18-09-2010 03:57PM

ardmacha wrote: »

A feature of this forum are people who dislike those working in the service of the public

A feature of this forum are people who believe that it's lunacy to borrow money at crippling rates of interest in order to pay wages that were pegged to the private sector during an economic bubble.

ardmacha wrote: »

or those on the dole or whoever. They hope for some kind of economic distaster so that these groups will get their comeuppance.

I think those on the dole have already got their 'comeuppance'.

ardmacha wrote: »

Ireland doesn't need to borrow any more money in 2010. In a couple of months there will be a definitive figure on the bank losses and a proposed budget. Interest rates will drop, with a bit of behind the scenes activity by the ECB. Provided the international economy stays on course, there will be whinging in general and further threads about the IMF, but they will only come here if their plane happens to refuel at Shannon.

Seriously this is like the best case scenario and you've skimmed over a lot of important issues here. I particularly like the line 'provided the international economy stays on course'.

IF THE IMF ENTER IRELAND, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

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