IF THE IMF ENTER IRELAND, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

stephentbb2000

What will they do, where will they cut, who will they get rid of?

admiralofthefleet

there will be drastic cuts to social welfare and the public wage bill, for a start

douglashyde

Good decisions.

Zynks

There will be someone with plenty of balls to do what has to be done. But it won't be pretty.

Godge

Minimum wage cut
Social Welfare cut
Public service pay cut

Clampdown on tax credits
Everyone brought within the tax net

Seth Brundle

The numbers within the public serviuce would probably be slashed also

the_dark_side

can the IMF go after savings accounts? expropriation etc

dunsandin

So, what your're all saying then, is its all good?? Bring it on. Anybody got any negatives?? Will FF remain in power? Will our bankers still prosper?Will the vested interests still remain vested?

tonedef

Godge wrote: »

Minimum wage cut
Social Welfare cut
Public service pay cut

Clampdown on tax credits
Everyone brought within the tax net

Why cut the minimum wage? How does that improve the government's finances?

I do think that the minimum wage in this country is too high and has shattered any hope we have of being competitive is certain sectors but I don't see why the IMF would include it in their cuts is they did take control.

In terms of balancing the books would the IMF not leave the minimum wage as it is and just make sure everyone on it is taxed?

Mrs. Delany

Out of curiosity, what do you think is an acceptable wage for someone doing a non-professional job in the public sector? Also, do you think the country would be a better place to live in if the IMF cut spending on Health and Education?

stephentbb2000

1. Minimum wage for the dole, there should be categories, not everybody has the same financial requirements.

2. Average wage at the moment for an unskilled public worker without including benefits such as service is around €370 - €460 after tax.

3. IMF has no political policies

4. Public sector employment will be bashed

5. Banking sector pay and bonuses will be bashed.

6. Senior public sector pay will be bashed.

7. Strict tax policies will probably be imposed.

8. Will we escape as a country????????????

dunsandin

Escape as in? Reality may dawn perhaps.

Stinicker

I was over in Hungary last year where they have called in the IMF and it was bleak and disgusting. Old people on the street begging because their pensions are worthless (having been cut 50% and suffering the effects of a devalued currency, women on the street prostituting themselves to survive, this is what the IMF will do and while it is not something to be welcomed I do welcome it because...

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

The high levels of dole have saved this government for two years now and in effect they have bought the peoples silence, I want to see the bankers and the politicians jailed for treason to our country and we must punish Brian Cowen, Bertie Ahern and Lenihan (if he doesn't die first), they have caused the same harm to Ireland as many others throughout History; Tito, Mussolini, Robert Mugabe, Idi Amin, Fianna Fail have betrayed the Irish people and destroyed our Future and our childrens ontop of it.

Ireland will be bankrupt before December, and the budget may bring down the Government, FG can do no different in fact they will preside over the legacy of the collapse of Irish society and the FF spin doctors (if the party is not banned) will direct much of society ill will onto the FG party who did not cause this. By February we will be staring at an economic situation last seen in pre-war Germany during the days of the Weimar Republic which crushed a nation after the Great Depression and drove Germany to Nazism and they were determined to punish those who humiliated and wrecked their great nation. Britain and <snip> Bankers having caused the collapse, WWII was caused by economics at its core.

Fianna Fail have done more damage to our economy in such a short period of time than 800 years of British rape and pillage could ever achieve. The British at least tried to build an economy despite their bigoted and heinous ways, they never set out to deliberately wreck the Irish economy to protect a vested interest in the same manner Fianna Fail did. Ireland is dead for a generation and we may yet drag the Euro down with us and history will judge us by whether the Irish people will stand up and try to stop this.

Brussels Sprout

the_dark_side wrote: »

can the IMF go after savings accounts? expropriation etc

No, you're only worry with savings is either

A: The banking guarantee lapses and the banks collapse.

or

B: We pull out of the euro and the bank accounts are frozen whilst our new currency is devalued (similar to what happened in Argentina in 2001).

MrDarcy

Stinicker wrote: »

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

Do you remember this?!?!?

http://www.getupstandup.ie/

Yeah the ICTU organised campaign that was meant to get people standing up for decency in our economic policies, standing up for a fairer society, standing up for working people...

I wonder what happened to that?!?!? Funny it seems to have died a death with the Croke Park deal, it's a motherfu*king disgrace. This is the depth of genuine concern that those who claim to inherit the spirit of Larkin and Connelly, actually have for this state. Stand up Get Up, and then sit back down again when the immediate threat to your 2010 and 1011 salary is put to flight, but as for raping your children's future in order to bail out an utterly f*cked up banking system, fu*cked up through sheer wanton greed, let's just leave that be for the time being, if the economy improves sure it might just go away...

RichardAnd

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

1. SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.
2. PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.
3. Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.
4. Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.
5. Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

MrDarcy

RichardAnd wrote: »

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

1. SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.
2. PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.
3. Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.
4. Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.
5. Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

Regrettably though, the IMF will not be cutting the rent or the living costs of the person on the dole that has been cut by 50%. So if you are on 196 a week and you are on 100 Euro a week subsequent to the IMF forcing change, your rent is still around 100 Euro a week.

Zynks

And so bedsits will become a common sight again.

who_ru

i think any potential investor in the country will be put off so we can kiss goodbye any news FDI jobs.

lets not be too fatalistic - the IMF cannot march in - they can only be invited in if there is no other prospect of the Irish Govt being able to borrow money from the bond markets.

i'm very nervous about this really - it's quite scary.

i agree with another poster who said we will require outsiders to impose these cuts as FF will not do it - they have only ever ran the economy in their own interests and those who are connected to them. the social partnership model has been a failure, to which the trade unions have also contributed.

exactly where are our trade union leaders now when the workers of this country are on the brink of financial ruin - many already are anyway.

and of course FF were voted in they didn't just take power - 3 elections over the last 12 odd years and 3 times elected. we are complicit in our onw downfall.

Stinicker

MrDarcy wrote: »

Do you remember this?!?!?

http://www.getupstandup.ie/

Yeah the ICTU organised campaign that was meant to get people standing up for decency in our economic policies, standing up for a fairer society, standing up for working people...

I wonder what happened to that?!?!? Funny it seems to have died a death with the Croke Park deal, it's a motherfu*king disgrace. This is the depth of genuine concern that those who claim to inherit the spirit of Larkin and Connelly, actually have for this state. Stand up Get Up, and then sit back down again when the immediate threat to your 2010 and 1011 salary is put to flight, but as for raping your children's future in order to bail out an utterly f*cked up banking system, fu*cked up through sheer wanton greed, let's just leave that be for the time being, if the economy improves sure it might just go away...

The Unions in Ireland are nothing but a shower of hypocrites who lapped up the cream Bertie Ahern gave them when he allowed the Public service to swell out like an obese person on the steriods that was never ending tax revenue from the boom. These morons were protesting for the status quo and to actually entrench us further in this mess by borrowing more instead of cutting back.

What we need in Ireland is a type of tea party movement aimed at firstly removing Fianna Fail from power and dismantling the party and banning it. Then we need to tackle massive unemployment and then look at what remnants of the welfare state can be saved.

Personally I am in favour of saving pensions (as in old peoples) not Fitzpatricks multi million euro pension, pensions and dignity for our elderly and increased security and gardai presence should be the only vestige of Government intervention in our lives everything else must go, but firstly we must get rid of FF and both the leftist and populist mantra so prevelent in Irish life that have wrecked us. Civil Unrest and even all out conflict could very easily develop out of this mess. One thing is for sure the future is bleak and we will all be alot lot poorer.

RichardAnd

Stinicker wrote: »

I was over in Hungary last year where they have called in the IMF and it was bleak and disgusting. Old people on the street begging because their pensions are worthless (having been cut 50% and suffering the effects of a devalued currency, women on the street prostituting themselves to survive, this is what the IMF will do and while it is not something to be welcomed I do welcome it because...

When the IMF comes in here I hope they cut things to the bone, I really do, I firmly beleive Irish people need a bloody nose and a few broken teeth from the IMF to get them to wake up to the sort of traitors and criminals that Fianna Fail are and get up off their arse and onto the streets, our apathy and sheer blandness to the absolute horror developing within our midst is a disgrace.

The high levels of dole have saved this government for two years now and in effect they have bought the peoples silence, I want to see the bankers and the politicians jailed for treason to our country and we must punish Brian Cowen, Bertie Ahern and Lenihan (if he doesn't die first), they have caused the same harm to Ireland as many others throughout History; Tito, Mussolini, Robert Mugabe, Idi Amin, Fianna Fail have betrayed the Irish people and destroyed our Future and our childrens ontop of it.

Ireland will be bankrupt before December, and the budget may bring down the Government, FG can do no different in fact they will preside over the legacy of the collapse of Irish society and the FF spin doctors (if the party is not banned) will direct much of society ill will onto the FG party who did not cause this. By February we will be staring at an economic situation last seen in pre-war Germany during the days of the Weimar Republic which crushed a nation after the Great Depression and drove Germany to Nazism and they were determined to punish those who humiliated and wrecked their great nation. Britain Bankers having caused the collapse, WWII was caused by economics at its core.

Fianna Fail have done more damage to our economy in such a short period of time than 800 years of British rape and pillage could ever achieve. The British at least tried to build an economy despite their bigoted and heinous ways, they never set out to deliberately wreck the Irish economy to protect a vested interest in the same manner Fianna Fail did. Ireland is dead for a generation and we may yet drag the Euro down with us and history will judge us by whether the Irish people will stand up and try to stop this.

You need to calm down. The IMF may be here before christmas but if you are in a pre-war germany state before easter I would be amazed (and horrified). If you want an example of what will happen, look at Greece. What happened in germany happened in a totally different world so the situations aren't comparable.

I also don't hold that FF set out to ruin the nation. Rather, this mess was caused simply by good old Irishness. FF led the nation in p!ssing borrowed money against the wall but God help anyone who warned we were living beyond our means 5 years ago.

So yes, FF were driving the van when it hit the wall but we gave them the keys whilst we settled down in the back with a bottle o' Jack.

ei.sdraob

IF THE IMF ENTER IRELAND, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN?

WE ALL WILL BE SHOUTING ON THE INTERNETS FORUMS :P

ei.sdraob

People

if the IMF are invited in (they dont break the door down like some sort of special forces and take over now!)


they will be used as scapegoats for everything that went wrong before their arrival

the reason IMF got a bad name is because bad governments run countries into the ground, then pass on the buck and responsibility and wash their hands of the blame, whats worse FF are still unwilling to admit its all their fault...

im actually reading an interesting book now that touches in one chapter on Argentine default and history, very interesting stuff and i cant help constantly contrasting and comparing


anyways like Greece it most likely be an IMF + EU bailout with strings attached here in Ireland

LevelSpirit

RichardAnd wrote: »

Contrary to the belief of many, the IMF do not seek to destroy a State as punishment. Rather, their aim will be to stabilise the offending nation and put them in a position to recover from their economic mess.

This topic has been raised many times before and the answers are always the same but I'll throw in my two cents:

1. SW of all kinds will be cut and I mean CUT. I would expect to see the dole sliced by up to 50% if not more to bring it into line with our neighbours.
2. PS wages will also be dropped. My estimate would be anything between 20 to 40%. I'm actually not sure numbers would be cut as it's not the IMF's job to make the PS efficient. However, if I were a public servant, I'd feel safer as an auditor in Revenue than an administrator in the FAS.
3. Tax nets would be widened to bring us all into the loop. Income tax may or may not be raised but I'd expect to see indirect taxes going up.
4. Services will defiantly be hit. Rural schools with a tiny student body will be a thing of the past. Expect to see schools becoming "super schools" with large numbers of students and high class sizes. Hospitals too will be hit.
5. Development. This one I'm not sure about. The IMF will not let us spend money we don't have to build X, Y and Z but at the same time, I don't think they want us stagnating. Hard to call.

Realistically, we can toss these things about all we like but we all know exactly what will happen: cuts. We need to close the hole in our pockets fast and, to be honest, we really do need someone to do it for us.

Ireland after IMF intervention will be a poorer state but it will also be a stable state. The truth is that we were never a wealthy nation and we are unlikely ever to be one.

Anyone any thoughts on what IMF intervention will do to employment/unemployment?

I think this is the best post in this thread.

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future, apart from scared people on internet fora talking talking about it. But IF THEY DID by some remote chance end up running the country.


The only think I would not agree with in Richards post is that tax rates wouldnt actually increase for every one. I think they would. By a lot.
Those who are paying little or no tax now would suffer the most.

Imagine those on €30K - €35K who at the moment dont pay enough tax to support donkey in a field, never mind the public services they consume themselves. They pay about 1/6 of their income in tax now. Wait til its 1/3 like what a person on €60k pays. Well if the IMF were here those only paying 1/3 or less would probably end up harder hit than those who actually do pay a decent amount of tax at the moment.
They would end up in the higher bracket along with a higher standard rate.
I think the hit on their take home pay would be massive. They might well be €5000 or more worse off in take home pay.

People on the dole would suffer too. Social welfare would probably be similar to that in the UK.

Be careful what you wish for.

Brussels Sprout

RichardAnd wrote: »

You need to calm down.

When the biggest harbinger of doom on the forum is telling you to calm down then you know you've gone too far!

(no offence intended Richard )

danbohan

LevelSpirit wrote: »

I think this is the best post in this thread.

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future, apart from scared people on internet fora talking talking about it. But IF THEY DID by some remote chance end up running the country.


The only think I would not agree with in Richards post is that tax rates wouldnt actually increase for every one. I think they would. By a lot.
Those who are paying little or no tax now would suffer the most.

Imagine those on €30K - €35K who at the moment dont pay enough tax to support donkey in a field, never mind the public services they consume themselves. They pay about 1/6 of their income in tax now. Wait til its 1/3 like what a person on €60k pays. Well if the IMF were here those only paying 1/3 or less would probably end up harder hit than those who actually do pay a decent amount of tax at the moment.
They would end up in the higher bracket along with a higher standard rate.
I think the hit on their take home pay would be massive. They might well be €5000 or more worse off in take home pay.

People on the dole would suffer too. Social welfare would probably be similar to that in the UK.

Be careful what you wish for.

whos wishing for it ?

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future,

and you base that on what exactly .

LevelSpirit

danbohan wrote: »

whos wishing for it ?

First off the IMF will not feature in Irelands future,

and you base that on what exactly .

Every keyboard warrior on boards is wishing for it, just so they can say "I told you so".

There is nothing to suggest the IMF will feature in Irelands future at all. This is just another thread like the ones over the last two years heralding the IMF Apocalypse within the next few months. It will be followed by another one next year with exactly the same posts about the IMF coming in before christmas.

Ireland is a country with a deficit and an economic hill to climb. Its not the first. It wont be the last. Thats all it is.

Im willing to bet major money that the IMF will not be here this year, or next year, and i will roll that bet over each year, if someone can can find me a bookie that will take that bet. Do Paddy Power have that bet?

5live

I remember reading a few years ago that health spending would take the biggest hit when IMF come to call. Now while i am in favour of cuts i dont want a situation where people cannot afford basic medicines. I dread to think of a situation where diabetics like myself cannot afford meds as happens in parts of society in USA. It would be better if we did cuts ourselves but what party WANTS to be disbanded after being in power( no PD jokes!). But increasingly the option of deciding our own policies is sliding down the creek and we only able to use our hands in the merde to paddle

TheInquisitor

The first thing the IMF would do is tear up the croke park agreement.

ardmacha

Every keyboard warrior on boards is wishing for it, just so they can say "I told you so".

A feature of this forum are people who dislike those working in the service of the public or those on the dole or whoever. They hope for some kind of economic distaster so that these groups will get their comeuppance.

Ireland doesn't need to borrow any more money in 2010. In a couple of months there will be a definitive figure on the bank losses and a proposed budget. Interest rates will drop, with a bit of behind the scenes activity by the ECB. Provided the international economy stays on course, there will be whinging in general and further threads about the IMF, but they will only come here if their plane happens to refuel at Shannon.

Brussels Sprout

ardmacha wrote: »

A feature of this forum are people who dislike those working in the service of the public

A feature of this forum are people who believe that it's lunacy to borrow money at crippling rates of interest in order to pay wages that were pegged to the private sector during an economic bubble.

ardmacha wrote: »

or those on the dole or whoever. They hope for some kind of economic distaster so that these groups will get their comeuppance.

I think those on the dole have already got their 'comeuppance'.

ardmacha wrote: »

Ireland doesn't need to borrow any more money in 2010. In a couple of months there will be a definitive figure on the bank losses and a proposed budget. Interest rates will drop, with a bit of behind the scenes activity by the ECB. Provided the international economy stays on course, there will be whinging in general and further threads about the IMF, but they will only come here if their plane happens to refuel at Shannon.

Seriously this is like the best case scenario and you've skimmed over a lot of important issues here. I particularly like the line 'provided the international economy stays on course'.

MrDarcy

Good post Brussels Sprouts, half the economy has already defaulted, people just don't get it at all...

RichardAnd

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

When the biggest harbinger of doom on the forum is telling you to calm down then you know you've gone too far!

(no offence intended Richard )

Me? I thought I was quite mellow by the standards of this place .

ei.sdraob

Seems like some public sector advocates/employees are still in lalaland few posts before

Sure theres nothing wrong with the economy, were not taking on huge amounts of debt at high interest, that will have to be repaid, everything is a lie and we all be better if we think positively

yeh

ardmacha

I particularly like the line 'provided the international economy stays on course'.

This is unclear, but the European Commission said this week that EU growth would be almost double that expected, so I am not alone in guarded optimism.

A feature of this forum are people who believe that it's lunacy to borrow money at crippling rates of interest in order to pay wages that were pegged to the private sector during an economic bubble.

That's probably why the wages were reduced. Alas, private sector costs have not come down likewise.

ei.sdraob

ardmacha wrote: »

That's probably why the wages were reduced. Alas, private sector costs have not come down likewise.

1. 300,000 newly unemployed people coming from the private sector say hello :rolleyes:

2.fancy explaining why month after month the only prices that are inflating are the sectors run/paid or tightly controlled by the government like energy, healthcare and education while everything else is deflating

ardmacha

fancy explaining why month after month the only prices that are inflating are the sectors run or tightly controlled by the government like energy, healthcare and education while everything else is deflating

That's easy. Health and education are not prices in the traditional sense, but charges. These are increased because the government has a deficit, or haven't you noticed? It is amazing how many people who criticise the government for having a deficit, also criticise them for attempting to reduce it. These charges should be further increased, it is ridiculous to borrow money to fund people from well off families to do arts degrees.

ei.sdraob

ardmacha wrote: »

That's easy. Health and education are not prices in the traditional sense, but charges. These are increased because the government has a deficit, or haven't you noticed? It is amazing how many people who criticise the government for having a deficit, also criticise them for attempting to reduce it. These charges should be further increased, it is ridiculous to borrow money to fund people from well off families to do arts degrees.

Nothing to do with wages in these sectors remaining large :rolleyes: and number employed not falling, and sprinkle some militant unions on top

pull the other leg

ardmacha

Nothing to do with wages in these sectors remaining large and number employed not falling

Education was already the among the most efficient in Europe, yet there has been a reduction in the numbers employed. You cannot have a further reduction unless there is a reduction in service, yet people are continually agitating for more education rather than less.

gurramok

ardmacha wrote: »

Education was already the among the most efficient in Europe, yet there has been a reduction in the numbers employed. You cannot have a further reduction unless there is a reduction in service, yet people are continually agitating for more education rather than less.

Reduction in temps. The full-timers on massive wages were not touched and will not be salary wise due to the CPA.

ardmacha

Reduction in temps.

As you say there has been a reduction in numbers and wages have not gone up. So any increase in charges in the sector reflect an attempt by the government to fund the damage caused by private sector speculation rather than any increase in cost.

ei.sdraob

ardmacha wrote: »

As you say there has been a reduction in numbers and wages have not gone up. So any increase in charges in the sector reflect an attempt by the government to fund the damage caused by private sector speculation rather than any increase in cost.

Speculation that occurred under the eyes of the government (very well paid public servants) and the regulator and central bank (even better paid staff)
But lets ignore that vital detail shall we :rolleyes:

In the meantime have fun reading this


Dont forget that not all of the private sector got involved in property. Why should I and my business be paying for the mess created by
the construction and banking sector which were m*****bated by well paid public employees and representatives in government/regulator/CB oh and lets not forget the cosy relationship of the unions in the social partnership orgy, a mess made deeper by public sector wages and welfare commitments that are still at boom levels and barely been scratched at

Lu Tze

ardmacha wrote: »

That's probably why the wages were reduced. Alas, private sector costs have not come down likewise.

While i was still employed, i was administering a tender (in 2009) on behalf of a public body, which was similar to one i had done in i had done in 2006. The lowest tender came in at just over half the price of the 2006 contract.

Companies (and i pity them) are tendering at cost, and in some cases below cost, as they see others around them fold, and the major players who came in from the UK withdraw from the market. It is disingenuous to say that private sector costs have not come down.

Edit: That said, the government would get great value at the moment if they ploughed on with a bit more capital investment in infrastructure

dan_d

Have to say - I know the numbers and I know the state we are in, but why do threads keep popping up speculating when we'll default and what the IMF will do?? It's a bit like scaremongering - although I know it's not coz some people out there are genuinely worried that it will happen.

I just think it's highly unlikely. Obviously it would be good from the point of view that it would make certain sections of society wake up and realise that they aren't just entitled to a big wage, it would make the Government cop on etc,etc. But realistically, it would just be out of the frying pan and into the fire.Any "good" it might do would be offset by the level of damage it did.

I think that one thing that people forget is that we have a level of personal debt that the Greeks don't. (correct me if I'm wrong).The IMF, I would imagine, should they come in here, would have to tread carefully with raising taxes and cutting wages, for the simple reason that people would be defaulting on mortgages left, and centre, which would affect the banks....which the IMF obviously don't want. The mortgages are the massive elephant in the room here. People would probably be able to take quite a bit more pain (realistically), if they didn't have to pay out so much in mortgage payments every month.

And I know I'm going to get the usual "nobody made them get a mortgage" brigade out in force, but it's a fact. When taking into consideration what can be done to help the economy, it's a fact that HAS to be taken into account. How do you strike the balance between raising Gov income and lowering expenditure yet still allowing people to repay their mortgages, so the banks don't get hit even further? It's a very tricky line to walk really....

stephentbb2000

Yes I agree the Mortgage and personnel debt issue is one big elephant, I personally don’t want the IMF to rattle our cage but I honestly feel there should be a drastic budget where nothing is untouchable.

Its true that there is allot of overpaid (tax payer money) people in this country, and there is allot of unnecessary tax breaks. I think the whole country needs to be brought down a peg or two.

It’s mad to think that individually and collectively we are probably the most indebted country in Europe.

nadir

ardmacha wrote: »

Ireland doesn't need to borrow any more money in 2010. In a couple of months there will be a definitive figure on the bank losses and a proposed budget. Interest rates will drop, with a bit of behind the scenes activity by the ECB.Provided the international economy stays on course, there will be whinging in general and further threads about the IMF, but they will only come here if their plane happens to refuel at Shannon.

You see I reckon that's a pretty big condition to take for granted. We're really not sure whats going to happen in the states, there's still a good chance it will double dip. Europe is looking fairly ok I'll admit although its probably going to be a pretty staggered recovery, and that brings me to my point which is that this country really doesn't produce much of substance and we are largely dependent on and tied to external factors.
What if demand falls for our (non native)exports, within Europe and the US?
What if the American companies go home, or to cheaper countries than Ireland?
What if cheaper eastern produce provide effective competition for the companies here and they need to massively downsize?
What if the euro becomes strong and uncompetitive.
What if all of the above, what if... , what if...

I'm not convinced we have much control of where were heading, it's like being on a boat with no captain going into a storm.

Scarab80

nadir wrote: »

You see I reckon that's a pretty big condition to take for granted. We're really not sure whats going to happen in the states, there's still a good chance it will double dip. Europe is looking fairly ok I'll admit although its probably going to be a pretty staggered recovery, and that brings me to my point which is that this country really doesn't produce much of substance and we are largely dependent on and tied to external factors.
What if demand falls for our (non native)exports, within Europe and the US?
What if the American companies go home, or to cheaper countries than Ireland?
What if cheaper eastern produce provide effective competition for the companies here and they need to massively downsize?
What if the euro becomes strong and uncompetitive.
What if all of the above, what if... , what if...

I'm not convinced we have much control of where were heading, it's like being on a boat with no captain going into a storm.

Well welcome to life, nobody has control over where they are going unless you are a country which meets all it's citizens needs from your own natural resources.

Even if we had a large indigineous irish industry there would still be nothing stopping them moving overseas.

The only solution is to reduce costs, increase productivity and remain competitive, so long as we need other countries resources we have to be able to provide something in return. Given that we don't have our own resources it will have to be in the form of our labour, which can be easily replicated by other countries, so we just have to work harder.

dunsandin

Personally, I cant wait for The MFI to get here, they used to do a lovely range of kitchens at reasonable prices, and I was gutted when they left. Bring it on I say. B&Q and Ikea must be cacking it. Their return will bring a bit of choice and stability to what is an inflated, overblown and rip-off oriented sector. A breath of fresh air. Ireland needs it.

johnnyskeleton

the_dark_side wrote: »

can the IMF go after savings accounts? expropriation etc

Just to explain, the IMF don't actually take control of the country.

When a government can't get money on the free market (i.e. a simple deal to lend money at a fixed interest rate over a fixed period), the IMF may agree to provide such lending, but they do so on certain terms. Those terms usually include spending cuts and tax increases.

However, the nature of the state remains the same. They do not take over the country, nor do they supercede constitutional rights. So they cannot simply expropriate private property (nor would they believe in such policies).

However, they might require Ireland to leave the Euro, which migh cause a loss in the value of any funds held in a bank. Might.

the_dark_side

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Just to explain, the IMF don't actually take control of the country.

When a government can't get money on the free market (i.e. a simple deal to lend money at a fixed interest rate over a fixed period), the IMF may agree to provide such lending, but they do so on certain terms. Those terms usually include spending cuts and tax increases.

However, the nature of the state remains the same. They do not take over the country, nor do they supercede constitutional rights. So they cannot simply expropriate private property (nor would they believe in such policies).

However, they might require Ireland to leave the Euro, which migh cause a loss in the value of any funds held in a bank. Might.

thanks for the reply, I have a better understanding of how this works since I posted that question. Just more than a bit concerned for friends and relatives who have savings in Irish banks and An Post accounts.

RealityCheck

A stint of the IMF might do us the world of good. Whether we ever happen to need their support or not, there is no point going hysterical about it. The only difference between what we have now and the IMF is that austerity might be a little bitter tougher (there really is a limit to how much money they can take out of the economy without casuing it to implode). Sure look at the statement from the IMF Friday. Had nothing but praise for the measures being taken by Lenihan and Co. Don't think things would change that much, bar the interest we would pay on loans would be lower than 6% for 10 year bonds, thats for sure.

As far as I know the interest rates the Greeks are would pay on the bond markets for 10 year bonds is 10%+, however they are borrowing from the EU/IMF fund at a rate of 5%.

The interest rates we are being charged for similar debt is heading north of 6%, that does'nt make much sence now does it? We are paying a premium for not having our name assosiated with the IMF. We can maybe afford that for a short period of time but the trend is telling us is otherwise. We can't keep this up indefinately. We can't afford it.