Government Bonds heading north again...

MrDarcy · 16-09-2010 11:08AM #1

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0916/ntma.html

Maybe the market's had a pair of eyes at the FF think drink in the night before last? We at 6.07% this morning...

Nijmegen · 16-09-2010 11:19AM

Seems 6% is the new manageable.

flutered · 16-09-2010 07:00PM

all the news wires carried that sorry story, a guy who seems to have a drink problem running a country yeah ted.

SkepticOne · 16-09-2010 07:05PM

Time to get Cowen back on CNBC and Bloomberg to put these people right like he did with the banks in 2008.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vc8ykHoBXmQ

Obviously need keep an eye on him the night before.

unit 1 · 16-09-2010 07:26PM

All joking aside I wonder just how much Brian Cowens performance has actually cost us if this increase was in any way a reaction to his performance the last morning not to mention his pathetic apology (plus mr martins rebuke;))
There might be stirrings in some of his colleagues.

rokossovsky · 16-09-2010 07:34PM

We better get a chance to mug them at the ballot box soon and get rid of these gombeen shysters for once and for all. 70 or so years in government out of the last 90 and what have we ended up with? A third rate country at best

Brussels Sprout · 16-09-2010 11:38PM

I seem to remember reading somewhere that 6% is the magic number. When the bond yields go above that it's pretty much impossible to fight your way back without help (in our case from an EU/IMF package).

danbohan · 17-09-2010 07:58AM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I seem to remember reading somewhere that 6% is the magic number. When the bond yields go above that it's pretty much impossible to fight your way back without help (in our case from an EU/IMF package).

they are rising sharply this morning again , so much for clowens ebb and flow

ifconfig · 17-09-2010 09:04AM

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

danbohan · 17-09-2010 10:16AM

ifconfig wrote: »

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

gurramok · 17-09-2010 10:20AM

"Ireland is expected to post a deficit of 25pc of GDP this year, when bank losses are added -- the largest in Europe."

Its getting bad and news like above would spook any investor.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

ei.sdraob · 17-09-2010 10:26AM

what the country needs is another distraction on the Greek scale

that might buy some time as before

otherwise were next :P

dasdog · 17-09-2010 10:48AM

gurramok wrote: »

"Ireland is expected to post a deficit of 25pc of GDP this year, when bank losses are added -- the largest in Europe."

Its getting bad and news like above would spook any investor.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

Mr Cowen said the rising cost of borrowing was a reaction to the demand in the bond market.

"In relation to the bond spreads, they spread for all countries, as I understand it today" he said.

Anglo's debts need to be re-negotiated. I can't see any other way of avoiding a potential default IMF/ECB bailout situation. And the only way that will happen is through a change of gov because the current lot are just not listening.

MrDarcy · 17-09-2010 12:23PM

6.2% for Irish ten year bonds... :eek::eek::eek:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0917/breaking18.html

hinault · 17-09-2010 12:39PM

ifconfig wrote: »

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

eoinbn · 17-09-2010 01:04PM

MrDarcy wrote: »

6.2% for Irish ten year bonds... :eek::eek::eek:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0917/breaking18.html

Make that 6.27%. That means we are borrowing money at 6.27% and loaning it to Greece at 5% yet Brian brother's say that we will make money from it!

Brussels Sprout · 17-09-2010 01:18PM

hinault wrote: »

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

ifconfig · 17-09-2010 01:57PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

Dot-com bubble crash ? September 11/01 ?
The time the real economy died only to be reflated by a property speculation bubble...

SkepticOne · 17-09-2010 02:26PM

hinault wrote: »

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

Try here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

17-09-2010 02:29PM

Anyone want to keep in touch with the rise go here

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Now at 6.3%, This is IMF time.

And for the short term yield sale

mar 2012 yield 3.90% up 40bps
apr 2013 yield 4.397% up 30bps
jan 2014 yield 4.766% up 32bps
apr 2016 yield 5.428% up 30bps
oct 2018 yield 5.976% up 28bps
oct 2019 yield 6.221% up 26bps
apr 2020 yield 6.301% up 26bps
oct 2020 yield 6.424% up 23bps

SkepticOne · 17-09-2010 02:39PM

10 year bond up to 6.4 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/irish-government-bond-spread-swaps-jump-to-record-on-renewed-bank-concern.html

rightwingdub · 17-09-2010 02:44PM

Lets get it over and done with and call in the IMF. We paddies need to have manners put on us.

Idbatterim · 17-09-2010 02:45PM

why not do a debt for equity swap with anglo bondholders? If the cost of the bank bailout and anglo in particular are the main cause of the rising interest rates. Or why not tell them, your only getting say 80% of your money back. (and you are lucky its not 0%). the options seem fairly straight forward to me!

ashleey · 17-09-2010 02:47PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

The point is about 'affordability'. Govts rarely pay back debt, mostly they roll it over and inflation takes care of the size. It's a bit like when your parents bought their house for 20k 30 years ago. Paybacks only really occur in times of extreme windfall.

The markets have a sense that the population isn't big enough to provide the tax revenues needed to service the debt in the face of more austerity budgets and the ECB intention to severely limit inflation. That's why Spain has been bracketed with Italy (big country, big debt) and Ireland and Portugal are together (small country, big debt).

The Anglo debacle has added to the stock of debt but the real problem is how to close the annual deficit with a declining popn at work (note how revenues are falling as taxes are rising). 3 austerity budgets later, a reduction in capital spending to pretty much zero and the gap is no smaller.

You don't give another credit card to the man who is consolidating his loans, you set a repayment schedule and prevent further borrowing. The IMF is the loan consolidator and the bond market is the credit card.

Idbatterim · 17-09-2010 02:49PM

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

SkepticOne · 17-09-2010 02:50PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

why not do a debt for equity swap with anglo bondholders? If the cost of the bank bailout and anglo in particular are the main cause of the rising interest rates. Or why not tell them, your only getting say 80% of your money back. (and you are lucky its not 0%). the options seem fairly straight forward to me!

Unfortunately the September guarantee has recently been extended so they will have to wait in order to make any move like that.

Idbatterim · 17-09-2010 02:57PM

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

Idbatterim · 17-09-2010 03:02PM

one argument of the bankers and lenihan I believe, was that if we dont pay back 100% of loans, we will be punished by the markets, well this solution is not the only game is town as we keep on being told. there is a bloody big consequence to that decision now, which is worse than the alternatives would have been. No one here is talking about defaulting on national debt, we are talking about failed private companies, mainly Anglo, which is not of systemic importance...

ashleey · 17-09-2010 03:06PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

I think that's why AIB shares are falling. They are running out of assets to sell and they wont make 7.5bn. It's better that the people own them as at least they have a retail franchise

ei.sdraob · 17-09-2010 03:09PM

Thats what Cowen meant by we turned a corner :rolleyes:

more like falling of a cliff

this is a new record today and not in a good way

SkepticOne · 17-09-2010 03:09PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

The difficulty with this is that the ECB purchasing bonds from AIB and BOI and these banks are lending to the government. This can only happen while AIB and BOI are independent companies. This is why the government have been keen to avoid nationalising banks as the ECB are forbidden from lending directly to governments or entities owned by governments.

Another fine mess the government have gotten us into.

Government Bonds heading north again...

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