Government Bonds heading north again...

MrDarcy

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0916/ntma.html

Maybe the market's had a pair of eyes at the FF think drink in the night before last? We at 6.07% this morning...

Nijmegen

Seems 6% is the new manageable.

flutered

all the news wires carried that sorry story, a guy who seems to have a drink problem running a country yeah ted.

SkepticOne

Time to get Cowen back on CNBC and Bloomberg to put these people right like he did with the banks in 2008.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vc8ykHoBXmQ

Obviously need keep an eye on him the night before.

unit 1

All joking aside I wonder just how much Brian Cowens performance has actually cost us if this increase was in any way a reaction to his performance the last morning not to mention his pathetic apology (plus mr martins rebuke;))
There might be stirrings in some of his colleagues.

rokossovsky

We better get a chance to mug them at the ballot box soon and get rid of these gombeen shysters for once and for all. 70 or so years in government out of the last 90 and what have we ended up with? A third rate country at best

Brussels Sprout

I seem to remember reading somewhere that 6% is the magic number. When the bond yields go above that it's pretty much impossible to fight your way back without help (in our case from an EU/IMF package).

danbohan

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I seem to remember reading somewhere that 6% is the magic number. When the bond yields go above that it's pretty much impossible to fight your way back without help (in our case from an EU/IMF package).

they are rising sharply this morning again , so much for clowens ebb and flow

ifconfig

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

danbohan

ifconfig wrote: »

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

gurramok

"Ireland is expected to post a deficit of 25pc of GDP this year, when bank losses are added -- the largest in Europe."

Its getting bad and news like above would spook any investor.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

ei.sdraob

what the country needs is another distraction on the Greek scale

that might buy some time as before

otherwise were next :P

dasdog

gurramok wrote: »

"Ireland is expected to post a deficit of 25pc of GDP this year, when bank losses are added -- the largest in Europe."

Its getting bad and news like above would spook any investor.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

Mr Cowen said the rising cost of borrowing was a reaction to the demand in the bond market.

"In relation to the bond spreads, they spread for all countries, as I understand it today" he said.

Anglo's debts need to be re-negotiated. I can't see any other way of avoiding a potential default IMF/ECB bailout situation. And the only way that will happen is through a change of gov because the current lot are just not listening.

MrDarcy

6.2% for Irish ten year bonds... :eek::eek::eek:


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0917/breaking18.html

hinault

ifconfig wrote: »

This has probably been asked before but ...

Are there any sites , eg Bloomberg, where Joe Soap can monitor the bond yields for Irish sovereign debt issues, etc ?

I had a look at Bloomberg free site and could see Sov bond yields for UK,US, Brazil,G8-like countries.
Do I need some paid up account to see hourly updates to Irish sovs ?

-ifc

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

eoinbn

MrDarcy wrote: »

6.2% for Irish ten year bonds... :eek::eek::eek:


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0917/breaking18.html

Make that 6.27%. That means we are borrowing money at 6.27% and loaning it to Greece at 5% yet Brian brother's say that we will make money from it!

Brussels Sprout

hinault wrote: »

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

ifconfig

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

Dot-com bubble crash ? September 11/01 ?
The time the real economy died only to be reflated by a property speculation bubble...

SkepticOne

hinault wrote: »

Here is a site showing the historic yield trend

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=iep

Can't locate a current up to date graph.

Try here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Anyone want to keep in touch with the rise go here

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Now at 6.3%, This is IMF time.

And for the short term yield sale


mar 2012 yield 3.90% up 40bps
apr 2013 yield 4.397% up 30bps
jan 2014 yield 4.766% up 32bps
apr 2016 yield 5.428% up 30bps
oct 2018 yield 5.976% up 28bps
oct 2019 yield 6.221% up 26bps
apr 2020 yield 6.301% up 26bps
oct 2020 yield 6.424% up 23bps

SkepticOne

10 year bond up to 6.4 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/irish-government-bond-spread-swaps-jump-to-record-on-renewed-bank-concern.html

rightwingdub

Lets get it over and done with and call in the IMF. We paddies need to have manners put on us.

Idbatterim

why not do a debt for equity swap with anglo bondholders? If the cost of the bank bailout and anglo in particular are the main cause of the rising interest rates. Or why not tell them, your only getting say 80% of your money back. (and you are lucky its not 0%). the options seem fairly straight forward to me!

ashleey

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

That's interesting that we had high yields back in 2000. Was this a big issue back then?

The point is about 'affordability'. Govts rarely pay back debt, mostly they roll it over and inflation takes care of the size. It's a bit like when your parents bought their house for 20k 30 years ago. Paybacks only really occur in times of extreme windfall.

The markets have a sense that the population isn't big enough to provide the tax revenues needed to service the debt in the face of more austerity budgets and the ECB intention to severely limit inflation. That's why Spain has been bracketed with Italy (big country, big debt) and Ireland and Portugal are together (small country, big debt).

The Anglo debacle has added to the stock of debt but the real problem is how to close the annual deficit with a declining popn at work (note how revenues are falling as taxes are rising). 3 austerity budgets later, a reduction in capital spending to pretty much zero and the gap is no smaller.

You don't give another credit card to the man who is consolidating his loans, you set a repayment schedule and prevent further borrowing. The IMF is the loan consolidator and the bond market is the credit card.

Idbatterim

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

SkepticOne

Idbatterim wrote: »

why not do a debt for equity swap with anglo bondholders? If the cost of the bank bailout and anglo in particular are the main cause of the rising interest rates. Or why not tell them, your only getting say 80% of your money back. (and you are lucky its not 0%). the options seem fairly straight forward to me!

Unfortunately the September guarantee has recently been extended so they will have to wait in order to make any move like that.

Idbatterim

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

Idbatterim

one argument of the bankers and lenihan I believe, was that if we dont pay back 100% of loans, we will be punished by the markets, well this solution is not the only game is town as we keep on being told. there is a bloody big consequence to that decision now, which is worse than the alternatives would have been. No one here is talking about defaulting on national debt, we are talking about failed private companies, mainly Anglo, which is not of systemic importance...

ashleey

Idbatterim wrote: »

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

I think that's why AIB shares are falling. They are running out of assets to sell and they wont make 7.5bn. It's better that the people own them as at least they have a retail franchise

ei.sdraob

Thats what Cowen meant by we turned a corner :rolleyes:

more like falling of a cliff

this is a new record today and not in a good way

SkepticOne

Idbatterim wrote: »

also how about nationalising AIB or BOI? I dont think its on that in a few years, they will be back to creaming it, all thanks to the taxpayer. Why should the billions go to the shareholders and bondholders and not the tax payer?

The difficulty with this is that the ECB purchasing bonds from AIB and BOI and these banks are lending to the government. This can only happen while AIB and BOI are independent companies. This is why the government have been keen to avoid nationalising banks as the ECB are forbidden from lending directly to governments or entities owned by governments.

Another fine mess the government have gotten us into.

ashleey

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddc388ec-c25e-11df-a91c-00144feab49a.html

It's now the headline.

Change of govt. required.

WalterMitty

Brown pants among public sector workers over coming weeks i think.

Drumpot

ashleey wrote: »

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddc388ec-c25e-11df-a91c-00144feab49a.html

It's now the headline.

Change of govt. required.

What does it say (cant read it as Im not a subscriber!).

SkepticOne

Drumpot wrote: »

What does it say (cant read it as Im not a subscriber!).

Irish bonds fall on bail-out fears

By David Oakley, Capital Markets Correspondent
Published: September 17 2010 15:22 | Last updated: September 17 2010 15:22

Irish bond prices fell sharply on Friday after fears increased that the country will need to turn to the international community to bail out its economy.

A report from Barclays Capital which said the Irish government may need to seek outside help if further unexpected financial sector losses materialised and economic conditions deteriorated, sparked the selling.

Yields on Irish two-year bonds, which have an inverse relationship with prices, rose by half a percentage point to 3.63 per cent, forcing the European Central Bank to intervene to prop up the Dublin markets, traders said.

Although the ECB was only seen to be buying small amounts of Irish bonds, it further emphasises the difficulties faced by Ireland and other weaker eurozone economies.

Domenico Crapanzano, head of euro rates trading at Jefferies, said: “There are just no buyers out there for Ireland because of worries over its economy.”

Worries over Ireland also put Portuguese bond markets under pressure because there are also concerns that Lisbon will have to turn to the international community for financial assistance too.

Portugal, which is also considered a problem by many investors because they fear the government is not introducing economic reform quickly enough, saw its 2-year bond yields rise nearly a quarter of a point to 3.50 per cent.

Other eurozone bond markets were stable as they are not perceived to be in danger of having to seek bail-out money.

Separately, analysts stressed the selling in Irish bonds was nothing to do with controversy surrounding Irish prime minister Brian Cowen.

He promised to socialise “more cautiously” after being forced to apologise this week for a stumbling media performance given just hours after he finished partying with colleagues at an annual conference.

“I will be a bit more cautious in terms of that aspect of how I conduct my social life,” Brian Cowen, who has repeatedly denied he was drunk or hungover during a radio interview, told the national broadcaster RTE on Friday.

unit 1

We are frequently told that sentiment is important in the market, and even though I'm repeating myself I wonder just how much of this increase can be attributed dircetly to Brian Cowens recent performance. Even a small amount could mean that the recent fiasco could have cost us tens of millions of euro. :mad:

Surely it's time for a change, and in their hearts they must know this.

ashleey

It just sounds awful. In the same article it mentions an IMF bailout (denied) and a drunk premier (denied). Meanwhile the bond ratchet continues as per Dan o'brien's article. Two steps up and one step back.

MrDarcy

At every single juncture in this whole sorry economic affair, from going back 5-10 years when people started becoming concerned at house price inflation, (let's not even look at the property madness of the last 5 years in particular, because it isn't necessary), but at EVERY SINGLE JUNCTURE, we and also other parties who had concerns, were basically told to shut up, sit back down, and stop talking through our arseholes and if we couldn't stop stop talking through our arseholes, well then maybe we should think about commtting suicide or something.

Up to as recently as today, this gang of spoofing economic wreckers and squanderer's, have yet again told another party to stop acting irrationally, to sit down and shut up.

We were right about the property prices, we were right about the government being wrong to give so much of our cash to Anglo, we were right when we said that the partnership process was not an effective use of taxpayers hard earned funds, and now the markets are right when they know that they are dealing with a gang of spoofers when they are dealing with the Irish government.

Look at the situation last week with the FF think in, we all know he was up until past 3 in the morning drinking his utter ass off, bawling ballads into the early hours, yet he doesn't quite lie about it, but he walks completely around the actual issue. Let's conveniently not mention that the cause of his hoarseness was the fact that he was rat arsed, let's try to get the optics right and by doing so, distort the reality of the whole situation.

Same with our finances, spin, spoofing and bullsh*t, let's not look at how much we are pumping into AIB, BOI and Anglo, let's instead create some finely tuned argument about the technicalities of a Financial Times article, let's bury ourselves in an argument such as whether illiquid assets are liquid or illiquid.

And tomorrow they will still be spoofing, it's long past time we chased this gang of spoofing scumbags out of government, they can't lie straight in bed the game is completely up, up for all of us.

mrgaa1

would this mean an election? Can we afford one at this time in terms that all we're going to have to listen to slagging off about x, y and z. It'll be 8 weeks off smiles, we're great, we'll fix it, their no good etc....
Its not as any needs an excuse to take the eye of the ball - thats been done a longtime ago.
Personally - the government should be reformed - all parties are put too one side and a new leader is put in place - a media friendly, tough but good communicator. A thorough dunging out is done in the public sector with correct wages applied immediately. All the quangos are removed.
I'd go even further and look at the following:
There is a great argument that children go to school far too early - that children shouldn't start until age 6.
Therefore all class's which cater for children up to age 6 are cancelled and their teachers either re-assigned or let go. One or both parents may have to stay at home but tough. The jobs that one or either of the parents had to quit - someone else takes it up.
Perhaps even go one further and close all primary schools for one year. Another year will not hurt but the savings to the public purse would be immense.
We have to look at something drastic because whats the alternative?
The IMF will come in and will simply say here is what is happening and get on with it - very nicely at first and then when the non-shavers start talking they'll be removed from the equation.
We can't, for example, keep paying the minimum wage - its too high. For those who work in industries where the rates are pay - 50-60% pay cuts are looming. E.g. we can't pay an electrician, on basic wage, more than what teachers with 15 years experience in the north earn. We can't pay a Taoiseach more than most other leaders.
Leadership is needed - where are our leaders?

ashleey

mrgaa1 wrote: »

would this mean an election? Can we afford one at this time in terms that all we're going to have to listen to slagging off about x, y and z. It'll be 8 weeks off smiles, we're great, we'll fix it, their no good etc....
Its not as any needs an excuse to take the eye of the ball - thats been done a longtime ago.
Personally - the government should be reformed - all parties are put too one side and a new leader is put in place - a media friendly, tough but good communicator. A thorough dunging out is done in the public sector with correct wages applied immediately. All the quangos are removed.
I'd go even further and look at the following:
There is a great argument that children go to school far too early - that children shouldn't start until age 6.
Therefore all class's which cater for children up to age 6 are cancelled and their teachers either re-assigned or let go. One or both parents may have to stay at home but tough. The jobs that one or either of the parents had to quit - someone else takes it up.
Perhaps even go one further and close all primary schools for one year. Another year will not hurt but the savings to the public purse would be immense.
We have to look at something drastic because whats the alternative?
The IMF will come in and will simply say here is what is happening and get on with it - very nicely at first and then when the non-shavers start talking they'll be removed from the equation.
We can't, for example, keep paying the minimum wage - its too high. For those who work in industries where the rates are pay - 50-60% pay cuts are looming. E.g. we can't pay an electrician, on basic wage, more than what teachers with 15 years experience in the north earn. We can't pay a Taoiseach more than most other leaders.
Leadership is needed - where are our leaders?

You make Margaret Thatcher look like Karl Marx

southsiderosie

mrgaa1 wrote: »

I'd go even further and look at the following:
There is a great argument that children go to school far too early - that children shouldn't start until age 6.
Therefore all class's which cater for children up to age 6 are cancelled and their teachers either re-assigned or let go. One or both parents may have to stay at home but tough. The jobs that one or either of the parents had to quit - someone else takes it up.
Perhaps even go one further and close all primary schools for one year. Another year will not hurt but the savings to the public purse would be immense.

I really hope you are not serious. The response to the government destroying the country's financial capital should not be to destroy its human capital.

mrgaa1 wrote: »

We have to look at something drastic because whats the alternative?

Letting Anglo die a well-deserved death would be a start.

mrgaa1 wrote: »

The IMF will come in and will simply say here is what is happening and get on with it - very nicely at first and then when the non-shavers start talking they'll be removed from the equation.
We can't, for example, keep paying the minimum wage - its too high. For those who work in industries where the rates are pay - 50-60% pay cuts are looming. E.g. we can't pay an electrician, on basic wage, more than what teachers with 15 years experience in the north earn. We can't pay a Taoiseach more than most other leaders.

Public sector cuts need to start at the top. This is the first cut that politicians should have made; at least it would have sent a signal to the population that they were taking things seriously. Across the board wage cuts, no double-dipping on state pensions, severe reduction in expenses, drivers, etc. It's absurd.

mrgaa1 wrote: »

Leadership is needed - where are our leaders?

Based on this week's shenanigans, on the piss most likely.

ashleey

The worst of the lot was bobby aylward failing to remember who was in charge of Nama after leaving a presentation from Frank daly. No doubt he'll be wheeled out next week to commend govt policy despite not knowing what planet he lives on. He made Cowan sound temperate.

ashleey

ashleey wrote: »

The worst of the lot was bobby aylward failing to remember who was in charge of Nama after leaving a presentation from Frank daly. No doubt he'll be wheeled out next week to commend govt policy despite not knowing what planet he lives on. He made Cowan sound temperate.

excellent!

MrDarcy

I personally cannot wait until all this comes to a head and we have civil unrest/disobedience in this country, I can't f*cking wait and I mean that in all sincerity and I'm stone cold sober here typing this.

ardmacha

I personally cannot wait until all this comes to a head and we have civil unrest/disobedience in this country, I can't f*cking wait and I mean that in all sincerity and I'm stone cold sober here typing this.

Indeed. Aherne and Cowan were merely reckless, they did not actively wish for disaster as you do. Yet you call them scumbags.

Liam Byrne

ardmacha wrote: »

Indeed. Aherne and Cowan were merely reckless, they did not actively wish for disaster as you do. Yet you call them scumbags.

"merely" reckless ?????

To the tune of between €18,000 and €25,000 PER PERSON ?

If someone was merely "reckless" driving and ruined the lives of a few million people and not only weren't even remotely sorry but didn't even acknowledge they were at fault then I reckon people would call them a scumbag, don't you ?