How long before Ireland goes burst?

ninebeanrows · 24-08-2010 01:29AM

There's no way in a blue moon i would have 30,000 in a bank in Ireland. Hell no.

I suppose once it goes bust inflation will be such having alot of cash won't be sufficient but we do have the buffer of the euro.

If i had any substantial amount of money it would be placed in British and European banks and not in the fold up Irish ones which are propped up by a defunct economic strategy which will last no more than 2-3 years.

Once the rest of the money begins to leave, its close up shop time.

hinault · 24-08-2010 01:29AM

Plebs wrote: »

That very nearly happened back in 2008

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=13476

Were it not for Brian Lenihan doing an all-nighter two nights in a row.

lenihan put the country on the hook for €480 billion of debt (at the time) when he signed the guarantee.
He made several errors when approving the guarantee - one of which was to guarantee all categories of debt in the banks.
Stupid.

he should have guaranteed the deposits by ordinary people (approx €120b at the time) and he should have guaranteed some other classes of debt.
he should not have guaranteed every single debt, across all classes.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:30AM

Plebs wrote: »

I'll leave you and your SWP buddies to the protest marches so.

Are you still here? How amusing. Sit back and let the adults talk now.

mikemac · 24-08-2010 01:32AM

peejay1986 wrote: »

€205 a week is far too much for single people to be taking in from social welfare.

It's €196 euro.

Wait until you get a good job and get raped every month for over €1,000 in PAYE and PRSI!
Realy, if I went on the dole tomorrow, I'd only be claiming my money back imo, I've paid a lot into that system.
And I hope it's there to support me.

Hit the work shy long term unemployed before cutting benefits to people who paid tens of thousands in tax and suddenly lost their jobs

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:33AM

hinault wrote: »

lenihan put the country on the hook for €480 billion of debt (at the time) when he signed the guarantee.
He made several errors when approving the guarantee - one of which was to guarantee all categories of debt in the banks.
Stupid.

he should have guaranteed the deposits by ordinary people (approx €120b at the time) and he should have guaranteed some other classes of debt.
he should not have guaranteed every single debt, across all classes.

There's the added issue that the nature of the guarantee skewed the banking sector in Ireland and drove out competition (Halifax, RBOSI, etc), making the situation worse again.

hinault · 24-08-2010 01:34AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Or nationalise and beggar the shareholders. They speculated and lost. It's a much cheaper option that the death by a thousand subsidies the state is currently suffering, and to what benefit? Credit to businesses is still frozen, and the banksters have either hightailed it abroad with their swag or else voted themselves pay increases while sacking staff.

With the benefit of hindsight, I think nationalisation would have been less painful.
Remember lenihan was told at the time that nationalisation would happen anyway and two years later, it looks like AIB will be effectively nationalised before the end of the year.

You're correct to recall.
NAMA/bank recapitalisation and the bank guarantee were out in place to
(a) "stabilise the sitiaution" and (b) "to get credit flowing again"

Two years down the line, the situation is far from stable and credit is not flowing in to the economy.
And since September 2008, this economy has lost 275,000+ jobs.

peejay1986 · 24-08-2010 01:34AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

It's €196 euro.

Wait until you get a good job and get raped every month for over €1,000 in PAYE and PRSI!
Realy, if I went on the dole tomorrow, I'd only be claiming my money back imo, I've paid a lot into that system.
And I hope it's there to support me.

Hit the work shy long term unemployed before cutting benefits to people who paid tens of thousands in tax and suddenly lost their jobs

Ah right. My mistake. You're right to claim your dole if it came to that. I've no problems with anyone claiming the dole. It's just those who have no interest in working or funding themselves that irritate me. Getting paid to swan through life at others expense.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:34AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

It's €196 euro.

Wait until you get a good job and get raped every month for over €1,000 in PAYE and PRSI!
Realy, if I went on the dole tomorrow, I'd only be claiming my money back imo, I've paid a lot into that system.
And I hope it's there to support me.

Hit the work shy long term unemployed before cutting benefits to people who paid tens of thousands in tax and suddenly lost their jobs

Time to look to the Swiss or Dutch systems perhaps. (Not that the social welfare bill is what's sinking the nation - the bailouts of the banks and property speculators are doing that - but other countries have clearly more sensible welfare provisions.)

mikemac · 24-08-2010 01:35AM

Weathercheck wrote: »

There's no way in a blue moon i would have 30,000 in a bank in Ireland. Hell no.

I keep my money in Rabobank, guranteed by the Dutch Central Bank.

Once upon a time they offered the highest deposit rates around. Now most every Irish bank would beat their rates.
Still though, I'll keep my money with them but look for better non Irish options.

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 01:44AM

What would the results of bankruptcy be? Can someone give examples of the results of national and global bankruptcy? (if there's such a thing as global bankruptcy?

)

hinault · 24-08-2010 01:45AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

It's €196 euro.

Wait until you get a good job and get raped every month for over €1,000 in PAYE and PRSI!
Realy, if I went on the dole tomorrow, I'd only be claiming my money back imo, I've paid a lot into that system.
And I hope it's there to support me.

Hit the work shy long term unemployed before cutting benefits to people who paid tens of thousands in tax and suddenly lost their jobs

This is a very good point.

Even when we had full employment in this country, there were over 100,000+ people who were claiming the dole.
What is the reason behind this?

I do know that some people can never work - but 100,000+ of them?
C'mon.

And remember not only would these people be pulling the dole, they would be claiming housing benefits and other social welfare payments.

I would confidently suggest that the majority of that 100,000+ people are workshy.

I would also look at drastically reducing unmarried mothers allowances.
These people should not be in receipt of state benefits just because they have a child.
These people get subsidised accomodation etc.

Where are the fathers of these children in these cases?
Why are they not being pursued to pay for their offspring?
Why should the State bail these people out?

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:48AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Are you still here? How amusing. Sit back and let the adults talk now.

You mean I was interrupting the lower middle class parasitic consumers from their Daily Mail rant?

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:48AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

What would the results of bankruptcy be? Can someone give examples of the results of national and global bankruptcy? (if there's such a thing as global bankruptcy? )

Uruguay defaulted in 2003 and was back on its feet within two years. Iceland appears to be largely emulating that feat in different circumstances.
The globe is a contained system and cannot go bankrupt, but there are plenty of examples of global economic crashes in the past, the great depression of the Thirties being one.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:49AM

Plebs wrote: »

You mean I was interrupting the lower middle class parasitic consumers from their Daily Mail rant?

I mean you're so out of your depth in this discussion that a life raft wouldn't save you.
But hey, you kick on. Your lack of sense or dignity is very entertaining.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:52AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I mean you're so out of your depth in this discussion that a life raft wouldn't save you.
But hey, you kick on. Your lack of sense or dignity is very entertaining.

I'll leave you to save the world from your comfortable vantage point.

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 01:56AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Uruguay defaulted in 2003 and was back on its feet within two years. Iceland appears to be largely emulating that feat in different circumstances.
The globe is a contained system and cannot go bankrupt, but there are plenty of examples of global economic crashes in the past, the great depression of the Thirties being one.

Do you think a depression like the one in the 30's is possible again? Or possibly even a worse depression than that?

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:56AM

Dig upwards, young man. Dig upwards.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:58AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

Do you think a depression like the one in the 30's is possible again? Or possibly even a worse depression than that?

By some methods of calculation, we're already in a worse depression than the 30s. By others, not yet.
There aren't many indicators showing positive signs for the global economy at present.

mikemac · 24-08-2010 01:59AM

hinault wrote: »

I would confidently suggest that the majority of that 100,000+ people are workshy.

I've never did a FAS course.
But I did a CERT course. Realy CERT was the training organization for the tourism industry.
For all the abuse the government takes, this was a fantastic organization.
I did a bar work course and learned lots of skills and increased my confidence tenfold.
Done in Limerick. I didn't get dole as I was in college and did over the summer so I was entitled to fecking nothing.
They did courses for chefs and restaurant staff too, I had the time of my life though I was unpaid.

Now let me tell you about the rest of my class mates.
Work shy? More like unemployable!
I got a job quick as I was young and enthusiastic.

These long term unemployed? There are very smart and know what jobs are worth taking on and what impact on their benefits it means. Not realy worth their while working in bar industry which isn't a high paying job.
They were pretty much told to do the course or get kicked off the dole or at least do an interview with a SW officer.
I realy think there are a lot of people sent on courses to massage the unemployment figures.

But they are unemployable, lazy, lousy attitude and nobody would hire them.

CERT was a fantastic organization, I think they got take over by Failte Ireland.
And they got a lot of sponsorship from local hotels, bars and restuarants so the government didn't fund everything.
If FAS were one tenth as efficent as CERT they would be doing well

hinault · 24-08-2010 02:00AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

Do you think a depression like the one in the 30's is possible again? Or possibly even a worse depression than that?

Reading the Financial Times and Economist and other publications, it appears that Latin America, India, China and certain parts of Asia are growing rapidly.

My point being that the world economy in the 1930's was very different to the world economy that we have now.
Unlike today, America and Europe mad eup the majority of the world economy in the 1930's.

Even within Europe today, countries like France and Germany are growing.

This country, Spain and Greece and Portugal are not growing and are in terrible straits.

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 02:00AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

By some methods of calculation, we're already in a worse depression than the 30s. By others, not yet.
There aren't many indicators showing positive signs for the global economy at present.

But the quality of life compared to the 30's and the present is surely much better isn't it?

I'd imagine when people in the developed world don't have enough money to buy food, it'll start to be called a depression ...

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 02:03AM

hinault wrote: »

Reading the Financial Times and Economist and other publications, it appears that Latin America, India, China and certain parts of Asia are growing rapidly.

My point being that the world economy in the 1930's was very different to the world economy that we have now.
Unlike today, America and Europe mad eup the majority of the world economy in the 1930's.

Even within Europe today, countries like France and Germany are growing.

This country, Spain and Greece and Portugal are not growing and are in terrible straits.

So will these countries default on their debt? Could the richer European countries like Germany and France "quarantine" them somehow and stop the entire eurozone from going bust if one of them does go bankrupt? I have no idea whether that would be possible or not.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 02:04AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

But the quality of life compared to the 30's and the present is surely much better isn't it?

Yup, and what Hinault says is correct as regards the relative states of other parts of the global economy.
But all that given, it's still collectively in terrible shape, and parts are already worse than the 30s.

MultiUmm wrote: »

I'd imagine when people in the developed world don't have enough money to buy food, it'll start to be called a depression ...

Actually, a depression has an economic definition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_%28economics%29
A recession lasting more than two years is generally considered a depression.

hinault · 24-08-2010 02:06AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

I've never did a FAS course.
But I did a CERT course. Realy CERT was the training organization for the tourism industry.
For all the abuse the government takes, this was a fantastic organization.
I did a bar work course and learned lots of skills and increased my confidence tenfold.
Done in Limerick. I didn't get dole as I was in college and did over the summer so I was entitled to fecking nothing.
They did courses for chefs and restaurant staff too, I had the time of my life though I was unpaid.

Now let me tell you about the rest of my class mates.
Work shy? More like unemployable!
I got a job quick as I was young and enthusiastic.

These long term unemployed? There are very smart and know what jobs are worth taking on and what impact on their benefits it means. Not realy worth their while working in bar industry which isn't a high paying job.
They were pretty much told to do the course or get kicked off the dole or at least do an interview with a SW officer.
I realy think there are a lot of people sent on courses to massage the unemployment figures.

But they are unemployable, lazy, lousy attitude and nobody would hire them.

CERT was a fantastic organization, I think they got take over by Failte Ireland

Simple answer is to reduce the benefits.

When work was plentiful 2003-2007, we had 100,000+ people who were claiming welfare.
I am fully cognisant that there are people who, for whatever reason, can never work.
They're simply not able to hold down a job for a reason.
Fine, I have no difficulty with them claiming welfare.

I do have a difficulty with the people in your class who weigh up all of the benefits that they can get and measure it against their nett pay and make a concious decision not to work.
In their case, I would cut their benefits, so that they have no choice but to work.
Those people are scroungers.
Cut their benefits and watch them run to work.

I have no problem with the man who has worked hard and finds himself out of a job claiming the dole.
It is only right and proper that the State look after him.

Scroungers though don't deserve anything.

24-08-2010 02:06AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

What would the results of bankruptcy be? Can someone give examples of the results of national and global bankruptcy? (if there's such a thing as global bankruptcy? )

Argentina has defaulted a couple of times in recent years.

edit
Wiki article

It made a lot of people poor!

Richard tea · 24-08-2010 02:07AM

Personally I don't think we will go bust. And I believe things will and can get alot worse. Prices still need to be slashed on Houses, cars, tradesmen, taxi etc etc.
Yes, alot of people are suffering, but lets face it, This is still a RIP OFF IRELAND

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 02:07AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Yup, and what Hinault says is correct as regards the relative states of other parts of the global economy.
But all that given, it's still collectively in terrible shape, and parts are already worse than the 30s.

Actually, a depression has an economic definition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_%28economics%29
A recession lasting more than two years is generally considered a depression.

Funny how economists and governments all insist on still calling it a recession.

Surely by this stage it's a bloody depression? :rolleyes:

aidan24326 · 24-08-2010 02:07AM

RonMexico wrote: »

Bring it on, its inevitable and those heartless bastards in power deserve to have it happen on their watch. If only so they are run out of office like diseased rats, never to return again.

Sure, let's run the government out of office like diseased rats, but you forget that it's not them who will suffer in the long run, it's the ordinary people who will pay. Cowen and Lenihan and their cronies could all be turfed out of Leinster House tomorrow morning and it would make no odds to them. Their financial wellbeing is already safely secured. The people who make the key decisions don't live in the same world as the rest of us right now, and some of them never have.

MultiUmm · 24-08-2010 02:09AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Argentina has defaulted a couple of times in recent years.

Perhaps defaulting isn't the end of the world as it seems then. The sky hasn't caved in on the countries that have defaulted.

I think the problem is with the Eurozone is that it's all pretty interconnected ... if one country from the PIGS defaults, the rest could easily follow, no?

hinault · 24-08-2010 02:09AM

MultiUmm wrote: »

So will these countries default on their debt? Could the richer European countries like Germany and France "quarantine" them somehow and stop the entire eurozone from going bust if one of them does go bankrupt? I have no idea whether that would be possible or not.

Well there is serious commentary that a plan is in train to have a two tiered Euro.

The top tier beng countries liker Germany, France and Nordic countries pegged to tier one Euro.
And PIIGS (Ireland etc) being pegged to a weaker tier two Euro.

How much credence is to be given to this concept is anyones guess

How long before Ireland goes burst?

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