How long before Ireland goes burst?

24-08-2010 12:30AM

Ban Ki Moon wrote: »

I give it 3 years (at best)

A better thread would be 'when will the global economy finally collapse' under its already buckled foundations

Its is only a matter of time, There is no if.

Governments have pumped collasal amounts of money into this hopeless trap that we call an economy and all to no avail, Unemployment figures have been rising in most major economies like the U.S ,Japan and the E.U, Stagflation is the best we can hope for now.

More likely the bankers will press the "reset" button, magic their debts away and start new currencies. When their debts disappear, so do your savings, but their savings will be golden so they will still be rich.

Ban Ki Moon · 24-08-2010 12:32AM

Deleted User wrote: »

More likely the bankers will press the "reset" button, magic their debts away and start new currencies. When their debts disappear, so do your savings, but their savings will be golden so they will still be rich.

So they have a reserve currency?

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 12:32AM

questionmark? wrote: »

I always wondered what would have happened the country if we did an Iceland and went under? Two or so years on and they seem to be on the road to recovery whereas the mess in our public finances we'll be felt for god only knows how many decades to come we are so far in debt now.

They let their banks go bust. We should have done likewise. After all, isn't that how capitalism is supposed to work? What we're engaged in is corporate socialism, and free marketeerism for the plebs.

questionmark? wrote: »

The problem with that cavehillred is that it makes sense. The banks, developers FF dont seem to get that getting us back to work is more important than Anglo Irish bank.

Because FF are way more connected to those who lost money through property speculation and Anglo than they are to the bulk of the population.
You'd hope people would remember this and turf everyone of their shoddy arses out of office, but they probably won't.
If it were up to me, I'd be jailing bankers and politicians for what they've done to this country.

24-08-2010 12:33AM

Ban Ki Moon wrote: »

So they have a reserve curruncy?

Gold!

Ban Ki Moon · 24-08-2010 12:35AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Gold!

Sure.you said it.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 12:35AM

Plebs wrote: »

Who do you think is giving the State the money to pay the social welfare bill? The banks...

Not Anglo, not BoI, not any of the banks we're propping up with borrowed money from abroad. If we HADN'T underwritten zombie banks and created a slush fund (NAMA) for property developers, we'd have plenty of money to pay for social welfare. We'd have money spare to create jobs to reduce the demand on social welfare too.

Plebs wrote: »

€205 a week plus rent allowance is far too much money to be giving single men. Especially when I can buy 12 cans of Bavaria for €12 in my local SuperValu.

What's that got to do with anything? Are you seriously suggesting that half a million unemployed people are squandering their pittance on p!ssy lager?
Grow up.

ninebeanrows · 24-08-2010 12:45AM

The prospects are very poor and upcoming winter will be very tough.

With the double dip a likely prospect in the global economy prospects for Ireland are very poor considering we are living on borrowed time. Our only saving grace is that there are another half dozen econonomies in the EU as vulnerable as us although this could also be a negative. If all the dominos fall at one or in a short space of time, things could turn rough quickly.

I am usually a doom merchant but i honestly hope for a quick global recovery. Things look so sh-te right now i don't want to see things actually hit the fan.

Unfortunately the above is a symptom that it actually might be very very close.

A extremely worrying period for the Irish and Global economy.

Once the growing sentiment of uneasiness about a lack of recovery hits the markets thing might move rapidly.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 12:45AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Not Anglo, not BoI, not any of the banks we're propping up with borrowed money from abroad. If we HADN'T underwritten zombie banks and created a slush fund (NAMA) for property developers, we'd have plenty of money to pay for social welfare. We'd have money spare to create jobs to reduce the demand on social welfare too.

And who do you think gave Anglo the money? If we don't repay the Germans, they won't pay our social welfare bill. Think about that.

Cavehill Red wrote: »

What's that got to do with anything? Are you seriously suggesting that half a million unemployed people are squandering their pittance on p!ssy lager?
Grow up.

What I am demonstrating is that €205 a week affords single men a very nice life.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 12:51AM

Plebs wrote: »

And who do you think gave Anglo the money? If we don't repay the Germans, they won't pay our social welfare bill. Think about that.

You seem to be adept at missing the point.
WE gave Anglo the money, thanks to our bogey government. WE are the ones who will have to repay it. Had that, and the other banking and property bailouts, not been pursued, we'd have sufficient money and cashflow to deal with the recession.
How about you think about that.

Plebs wrote: »

What I am demonstrating is that €205 a week affords single men a very nice life.

I'd say it doesn't actually. I'd say it provides a subsistence existence.
But in any case, you're shifting your argument. Originally, you wanted to slash social welfare in half, which would be impossible without plunging half a million people well below the breadline, and causing significant hardship to hundreds of thousands of children.
Presumably you're now beginning to realise just how ridiculous that statement was.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 12:54AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I'd say it doesn't actually. I'd say it provides a subsistence existence.
But in any case, you're shifting your argument. Originally, you wanted to slash social welfare in half, which would be impossible without plunging half a million people well below the breadline, and causing significant hardship to hundreds of thousands of children.
Presumably you're now beginning to realise just how ridiculous that statement was.

Gimme a break. You've been reading far too many Charles Dickens novels.

iamthe43 · 24-08-2010 12:57AM

Plebs, seriously...leave it out. If your looking to rant about those unfortunate enough that have lost their jobs, rant somewhere else FFS. This is a thread about the doomed nature of this country

hinault · 24-08-2010 12:59AM

Ireland is already bust, as others have said earlier.

The question is can we dig outselves out of this mess?

The entire NAMA project and the recapitalisation of the banks will put the kybosh on any short term recovery because our govt has decided that the entire nation must bear the cost of bailing these banks out.

In the medium to long term, if the economy continues to deteriorate, fewer people will be working which means social welfare payments to more poeple and less tax being generated from those that are in work.
Couple this with the loan repayments for the monies given to banks and it is very hard to see any good economic newe even in the long term.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 12:59AM

Plebs wrote: »

Gimme a break. You've been reading far too many Charles Dickens novels.

Whereas you've been reading too much of the neo-con BS that got the globe into this mess.
My point stands, whereas yours has been demonstrated to be nonsense.
If we hadn't allocated tens of billions of euro to prop up property developers and dodgy banks, we'd be much better off.
And the tiny amount of money you propose to save by slashing social welfare by 50% would achieve next to nothing in that context, while plunging hundreds of thousands of people into genuine poverty.
To be honest, I'd love to see Fianna Fail try something like that. They might just find their heads on spikes if they did.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:00AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Whereas you've been reading too much of the neo-con BS that got the globe into this mess.
My point stands, whereas yours has been demonstrated to be nonsense.
If we hadn't allocated tens of billions of euro to prop up property developers and dodgy banks, we'd be much better off.
And the tiny amount of money you propose to save by slashing social welfare by 50% would achieve next to nothing in that context, while plunging hundreds of thousands of people into genuine poverty.
To be honest, I'd love to see Fianna Fail try something like that. They might just find their heads on spikes if they did.

"Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:03AM

Plebs wrote: »

"Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."

What's conservative about corporate welfare beggaring the nation?

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:05AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

What's conservative about corporate welfare beggaring the nation?

The State, yes the ones who issue the banking licenses, allowed the economy to overheat - melt down even. Therefore, the State must pay.

Biggins · 24-08-2010 01:10AM

Rented Mule wrote: »

....that's when the whores come in !!

Bad news, they are already here: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20100823/tuk-charity-sees-prostitution-case-rise-e1cd776.html

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:11AM

Plebs wrote: »

The State, yes the ones who issue the banking licenses, allowed the economy to overheat - melt down even. Therefore, the State must pay.

For Anglo's debts? For shareholders' equity decline in zombie banks? For developers' speculative losses?
Why?
That's corporate welfarism. It's as conservative as a kibbutz's five year plan.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:12AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

For Anglo's debts? For shareholders' equity decline in zombie banks? For developers' speculative losses?
Why?
That's corporate welfarism. It's as conservative as a kibbutz's five year plan.

Vote Labour next time round so.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:17AM

Plebs wrote: »

Vote Labour next time round so.

Maybe I did the last time.
Maybe more people should the next time. They didn't hand over billions to bankrupt banks.
But this is hardly party political. When you have commentators like McWilliams and Gourdieff stating that the government has squandered untold billions bailing out their mates, then the conservative position most definitely opposes the clientelism of the current government.
It seems to me that you're a classic victim of the current regime's distraction techniques.
Public V Private sector, Employed V Unemployed, City V Rural. They keep on throwing up these preposterous divisions to distract the populace from their activities in beggaring the nation to prop up their bankrupt pals.
And you're the fool buying into that.
Let's reverse and start again. I say we should scrap all bank guarantees, fold NAMA instantly and let all bankrupt banks and developers go to the wall.
As an alleged conservative, you oppose this because...?

msg11 · 24-08-2010 01:19AM

When do the banks have to repay this money back to the government? Is there a set date on it or what ?

I generally think FF are going to find themselves in a situation, were they have so much tax on any person in Ireland that they cannot even pay a new tax.. There's talk every week of a new tax. I know it's been said before about mass protests and all, but FF are really starting to push the buttons with a few people and all it takes is one spark to get people going like a bonfire. Once the scummers see a large protest, that's all it will take a few scummers dropping a few 'protesters' and a war will happen.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:20AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Maybe I did the last time.
Maybe more people should the next time. They didn't hand over billions to bankrupt banks.
But this is hardly party political. When you have commentators like McWilliams and Gourdieff stating that the government has squandered untold billions bailing out their mates, then the conservative position most definitely opposes the clientelism of the current government.
It seems to me that you're a classic victim of the current regime's distraction techniques.
Public V Private sector, Employed V Unemployed, City V Rural. They keep on throwing up these preposterous divisions to distract the populace from their activities in beggaring the nation to prop up their bankrupt pals.
And you're the fool buying into that.
Let's reverse and start again. I say we should scrap all bank guarantees, fold NAMA instantly and let all bankrupt banks and developers go to the wall.
As an alleged conservative, you oppose this because...?

Yeah, yeah. This Joe Duffy style of rant was mildly interesting back in early 2008. Maybe you should go on a protest march to the Dail? Or sign up to a Facebook campaign to set up a new political party? lol.

mikemac · 24-08-2010 01:21AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Let's reverse and start again. I say we should scrap all bank guarantees, fold NAMA instantly and let all bankrupt banks and developers go to the wall.

Suppose I've 30,000 euro in the bank. Or you have your life savings there.
Or hey, maybe you got paid recently and you have last months wages there

Bank goes bust and your money disappears :eek:
You think that's acceptable to have your live savings disappear overnight?

There would be a run on the banks and mile long queues in the morning if this was a possibility

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:22AM

Plebs wrote: »

Yeah, yeah. This Joe Duffy style of rant was mildly interesting back in early 2008. Maybe you should go on a protest march to the Dail? Or set up a new political party? lol.

Oh, my mistake. I thought you'd thought this through and actually had some sort of rationale for your position.
Now it appears that you don't know what you're talking about and have been royally exposed as spouting nonsense.

hinault · 24-08-2010 01:23AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Maybe I did the last time.
Maybe more people should the next time. They didn't hand over billions to bankrupt banks.
But this is hardly party political. When you have commentators like McWilliams and Gourdieff stating that the government has squandered untold billions bailing out their mates, then the conservative position most definitely opposes the clientelism of the current government.
It seems to me that you're a classic victim of the current regime's distraction techniques.
Public V Private sector, Employed V Unemployed, City V Rural. They keep on throwing up these preposterous divisions to distract the populace from their activities in beggaring the nation to prop up their bankrupt pals.
And you're the fool buying into that.
Let's reverse and start again. I say we should scrap all bank guarantees, fold NAMA instantly and let all bankrupt banks and developers go to the wall.
As an alleged conservative, you oppose this because...?

The counter argument is that if we scrap the bank guarantee there will be a run on all of the banks.

My view is that scrapping the guarantee would be deterimental.

The politicians can change the guarantee though to protect the ordinary depositors and maybe some institutional investors.
This should be the approach, I would contend.

let the guarantee lapse for the professional investors though.

peejay1986 · 24-08-2010 01:24AM

Have to agree with what many of the people on here have said. €205 a week is far too much for single people to be taking in from social welfare. Most of my mates from school just finished college and are sat on their arses 2 years on buying Xboxs, TVs, drink and more, in a house that my mother couldn't afford to live in.

The social welfare needs a fairer system. €205 is more acceptable for people who have dependents. I've just finished Uni in UK and the dole over here is £50 a week. It's worthless! I barely make ends meet over here, and that's with few bills and no dependents.

There needs to be a proper break down of the system. A middle ground needs to be met. You should be paid social welfare based on your needs and not on your job status. I think the UK's rate is too low but I like that they at least take in to consideration your situation at home before they decide what to give you.

I'm looking at coming home to Ireland in the near future and I'm really worried about what the country will be like when I do. Such a sad state the place is in

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:24AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

Suppose I've 30,000 euro in the bank. Or you have your life savings there.
Or hey, maybe you got paid recently and you have last months wages there

Bank goes bust and your money disappears :eek:
You think that's acceptable to have your live savings disappear overnight?

There would be a run on the banks and mile long queues in the morning if this was a possibility

Nationalisation a la Northern Rock is one option. Worked much better in Britain than our endless subsidies have.
And the threat of bank runs don't explain NAMA at all. There was and is no justification for that massive subsidy of bankrupt developers.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:25AM

feelingstressed wrote: »

Suppose I've 30,000 euro in the bank. Or you have your life savings there.
Or hey, maybe you got paid recently and you have last months wages there

Bank goes bust and your money disappears :eek:
You think that's acceptable to have your live savings disappear overnight?

There would be a run on the banks and mile long queues in the morning if this was a possibility

That very nearly happened back in 2008

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=13476

Were it not for Brian Lenihan doing an all-nighter two nights in a row.

Cavehill Red · 24-08-2010 01:26AM

hinault wrote: »

The counter argument is that if we scrap the bank guarantee there will be a run on all of the banks.

My view is that scrapping the guarantee would be deterimental.

The politicians can change the guarantee though to protect the ordinary depositors and maybe some institutional investors.
This should be the approach, I would contend.

let the guarantee lapse for the professional investors though.

Or nationalise and beggar the shareholders. They speculated and lost. It's a much cheaper option that the death by a thousand subsidies the state is currently suffering, and to what benefit? Credit to businesses is still frozen, and the banksters have either hightailed it abroad with their swag or else voted themselves pay increases while sacking staff.

Plebs · 24-08-2010 01:29AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Oh, my mistake. I thought you'd thought this through and actually had some sort of rationale for your position.
Now it appears that you don't know what you're talking about and have been royally exposed as spouting nonsense.

I'll leave you and your SWP buddies to the protest marches so.

How long before Ireland goes burst?

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