Paul The Octopus

how many germans do you know called paul ffs

Gerhard or Andreas maybe but paul

I am saddened and disgusted to the point of knowing about this kind of crap
that I am now coming up with a plan to stab the fooker in the liverz

He has retired

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/id/5373013/ce/us/paul-octopus-retires-world-cup-predictions-going-8-8?cc=5739&ver=global

Retiring at the top. What a legend! :standing ovation:

Dravokivich wrote: »

I think it's pure fluke... He's got a 50 / 50 chance of getting it right/wrong... It's been shown twice before he was wrong...

Seriously no different then flipping a coin on it...

It's not the same as flipping a coin. The probability of predicting 8 consecutive matches correctly is 1 in 256.

Now, it still may be pure fluke.

I think it's more likely that there is some bias in his selection that makes it more likely he'll pick the right box e.g. he may have a preference for the German flag, Germany are more likely to win than to lose as they are a good team, so Paul is more likely to make correct predictions than would happen by random chance.

sesna wrote: »

But the probability is still 50/50 before each match regardless of what results he has got right before that.

Yep.If there were another game tomorrow, the probability he would get it right (if it is random) is 1 in 2, whether he has predicted 8 or 800 games correct previously.

But the probability of him having had the streak he has had is 1 in 256.