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The Iceland Volcano Thread

15859616364115

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭octo


    Dyflin wrote: »
    Looking at the Yr.no model it looks like Ireland will be covered on Thursday/Friday. Is this consistent with other models and will the airports most likely be shut during this period (have a return flight Thursday evening)?

    The Met Eireann/Mace Head model looks broadly similar for thursday and friday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61 ✭✭YESROH


    oh dear not looking so good for the sister in the states then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    octo wrote: »
    The Met Eireann/Mace Head model looks broadly similar for thursday and friday.

    Nooooo, have a Ryanair flight to LGW on Friday evening, have got everything crossed for a sudden freak change in the wind direction

    It's our first wedding anniversary and we're meant to be going back to where we got married on Sunday for a romantic dinner...pls volcano stop being a bitch you're ruining peoples lives now..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭alibabba


    YESROH wrote: »
    oh dear not looking so good for the sister in the states then.

    Your first post ... congrats !;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Crazy amount of earthquakes deep under the volcano yesterday which might indicate that more new magma is going to push up to the surface, perhaps opening a new rift.

    This is how it looks at the moment on the new and improved Hvolsvelli cam :

    2dayw4m.jpg


    http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Nooooo, have a Ryanair flight to LGW on Friday evening, have got everything crossed for a sudden freak change in the wind direction

    It's our first wedding anniversary and we're meant to be going back to where we got married on Sunday for a romantic dinner...pls volcano stop being a bitch you're ruining peoples lives now..

    Its not clear how that Macehead prediction lines up with the VAAC charts which restrict airspace though, at least thats what I'm hoping. Attached is a comparison of both charts from today at 6pm, a lot of it lines up, but the Macehead shape over France and the Bay of Biscay doesn't match what has been restricted.

    So we'll still have to see whats going to be restricted I guess.

    113510.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,829 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Hvolsvelli cam showing some great pictures today. Seems to be getting more explosive as the day goes on...

    113514.jpg


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,574 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Looking pretty active this afternoon alright.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Its a bit less active than in the past though:

    32zjmgy.jpg

    4v1ru1.jpg

    2dayw4m.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Really ugly, dark plume at the moment. Looks like a lot of ash falling just downwind of the volcano now :

    1581mx5.jpg


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭Orlee


    Stupid question but how are they predicting how the ash cloud will move?

    Is it just from wind predictions?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭Nephew


    Can anyone tell me what the charts predict for late Wednesday night? Do you think the ash will cause flights from Barcelona to Dublin to be cancelled?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    I think you'll probably be okay on Wednesday night:
    http://www.iaa.ie/files/2010/images/20100511075704_Chart%201900%20Tues%2011%20May.pdf

    The cloud looks to be heading for a sort of dispersal on Thursday if that chart is any indication (and there are no further big eruptions).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Here is an animated ash forecast for the next 5 days :

    http://transport.nilu.no/browser/fpv?fpp=conccol_VO_1_


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Here is an animated ash forecast for the next 5 days :

    http://transport.nilu.no/browser/fpv?fpp=conccol_VO_1_

    I REALLY hope thats true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I REALLY hope thats true.

    Worth checking back on though as it will probably chop and change a bit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,934 ✭✭✭goat2


    god help the icelanders
    they are covered in ash, their crops, homes and roads
    and cashstrapped


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    goat2 wrote: »
    god help the icelanders
    they are covered in ash, their crops, homes and roads
    and cashstrapped

    Well said Goat, we are all on here worried about our flights and holidays when true hardship is being encountered by people at the source of all this disruption.

    Has anyone got any custard, this humble pie is a bit dry on it's own :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 185 ✭✭M.Pool


    andrew wrote: »
    upload it to imgur.com and post the link :)

    Thanks for that. Resolution isn't great but you can see the "glowing man"

    oKPd9.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    goat2 wrote: »
    god help the icelanders
    they are covered in ash, their crops, homes and roads
    and cashstrapped

    Look on the brightside, at least the ash will make their land extremely fertile in the future :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭alibabba


    Any reports of how they are actually been affected?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 115 ✭✭drymartini


    141_Oscar_Mike

    Its amazing that we can watch it on the webcams, but realtime video certainly puts what you see in a new perspective.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 185 ✭✭M.Pool


    alibabba wrote: »
    Any reports of how they are actually been affected?

    This article was in the Irishtimes weekender. Farms near the volcano are covered with ash, livestock have to be kept indoors and they're running out of fodder. On the plus side they are making some money charging tourists to bring them close to Enya.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2010/0508/1224269933957.html


  • Posts: 31,828 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Look on the brightside, at least the ash will make their land extremely fertile in the future :)

    How long does it take for sterile ash to become fertile soil???

    edit: this long
    Options depending on ash thickness and season
    Based on observations from Mount St. Helens (1980), Ruapehu (1995-6) and others. Possibly most applicable to temperate countries.

    Thin burial (< 5 mm ash)
    Impacts of ash negligible.
    Rehabilitation of the land not necessary.
    In short-term, ash is washed and consolidates to 1-2 mm.
    Increased supplementary feed may be required if stock off their feed.

    Moderate burial (25 - 30 mm ash)
    Pastures destroyed from ash burning, rehabilitation is similar to the 25-50 mm scenarios; otherwise, rehabilitation will be similar to that after a severe dry period.
    Pastures can be re-established either through conventional cultivation or undersowing.
    Where ash is up to 25 mm thick, incorporation of the ash through ploughing is the most suitable method.
    Hill country rehabilitation will be slower, as material cannot be incorporated into the soil profile.
    Rainfall will improve the rate of recovery as the ash is eroded.
    Oversowing with fertilizer will be necessary, due to the inherent lower fertility of the soils and also where pastures are weakened/destroyed by the ash.
    Extra supplements are required to maintain stock numbers until pastures recover.
    Greenfeed crops and high producing annual ryegrasses could be established where the eruption occurred late summer, to provide increased feed in the winter until permanent pastures could be established.
    It is important to maintain farm operations, especially in terms of providing good quality water and maintaining farm machinery.
    The costs of re-establishing pastures after an eruption are similar to a severe drought.

    Moderate burial (25 - 30 mm ash)
    Rehabilitation will be greatly influenced by the time of year of the ash fall and the nature of the ash.

    Late winter/early spring in temperate climates

    Most critical period for dairy, sheep, and beef (pasture covers are low and supplementary feed has largely been used).
    Management options will be to mob stock up, move them through longer pasture areas of the farm to shake/remove ash off the plants. These areas can then be grazed with some brought supplementary feed such as meal and hay if available.
    It will be difficult to procure sufficient grazing to de-stock affected farms at this time of the year. However, some de-stocking of the farm may be possible by sending stock to the works or for grazing in other parts of the country.
    Paddocks that had been intended for cropping or pasture renewal could be cultivated and sown in fast growing annual crops, including annual ryegrasses, feed oats and barley.
    Soil fertility is likely to decrease in the short term, requiring higher fertilizer inputs but not necessarily for all elements.
    Summer/autumn in temperate climates

    Management options are eased by the ability to de-stock lambs, prime cattle and cull dairy cows to the works. Reserves of hay or silage are at the greatest and greenfeed crops such as corn, choumollier or swedes will be of sufficient maturity to supply a substantial amount of feed.
    Good quality water is essential, increased water pump maintenance and cleaning of troughs will be required for farms on deep well bores and reticulated systems.
    Farms taking supplies from streams or dams, provision of good quality water for both human and stock consumption will be more difficult. Outside assistance may be required in the short-term (until streams clear and dam water can be tested clear of toxic chemicals).
    Rehabilitation of any farm will be dependent on the financial resources of the farmer and the robustness of the farm business.

    Thick burial (50-100 mm ash)
    Rehabilitation will be influenced by the farm contour, availability of suitable machinery, finance and human resources.
    Ash does not dissolve or percolate into the soil profile, therefore tillage with high inputs of fertilizer is required (providing a medium for establishing ryegrass/white clover pastures).
    Ash falls of 50 mm will have serious financial implications in the year of the ash fall and also the following season.

    Land able to be cultivated

    Ploughing as deep as 20 cm (8 in) gives best results, as the ash layer is mixed with underlying soil. Incorporation of ash will still result in changes to the soil characteristics, such as greater soil moisture, lower fertility and permeability. Large scale cultivation will be expensive.
    Costs include re-grassing, fertilizer and high machinery maintenance costs due to the abrasive nature of the ash increasing wear and tear.
    Rehabilitation of land affected by ash is similar to development of sand country where the initial requirement is establishment of any species tolerant of the conditions to stabilize the ash and build up fertility.
    Re-establishment of pastoral species, dependent on the nature of the ash. With very acidic ash, liming could be required, along with high fertilizer inputs to create a soil medium, conducive to pastoral growth.
    Initially, acid tolerant species may need to be planted and species more tolerant of severe conditions. For example, Marram grass, lupins, Yorkshire Fog and Lotus.
    These species tend to be lower yielding than the existing ryegrass and clover pastures. Once soil fertility and organic matter levels increase, more productive species may be established.
    Land not able to be cultivated

    Rehabilitation will be a slow and costly process.
    Oversowing of low fertility species with fertilizer inputs may be required.
    It may be un-economic for land to resume pastoral use; other land use may be appropriate.
    Rehabilitation will be dependent on the financial resources of the farmer, which may be extremely limited after the financial toll of the eruption.
    Stock

    May require de-stocking of the land for at least 6 months.
    Rehabilitation will require re-stocking, but may not be physically possible where the eruption devastates a large area.
    Slaughtering of stock may be the only option, which will result in a loss of valuable stock of high genetic merit.
    Until the ash consolidates, quality water for stock will be scarce.
    Extra expense will be incurred in maintaining water pumps (affected by the abrasive nature of the ash).
    The physical removal of the ash from buildings, yards, roadways will be required. See removal methods.

    Very thick burial (100 - 300 mm ash)
    Rehabilitation extremely difficult and likely to take generations.
    Soil sterilized below ash.
    Ash too deep to be incorporated using conventional cultivation techniques, including ploughing, discing or rotatilling.
    Restoration dependent on removal of the ash layer or a much longer time frame of re-colonization of the ash layer.
    Re-colonizing agents need to be adapted to harsh environments and will vary with climate.
    Possible re-colonizing agents are Lupins and Lotus species (that fix nitrogen) along with Marram grass.
    Initially, restoring basic facilities such as roads, water supply, power, and effluent systems are required before restoration can occur.
    Immediate requirement, relocation of the affected residents and provision of adjustment programs.

    Extremely thick burial (> 300 mm ash)
    Land un-farmable for many generations.
    Rehabilitation at an extreme cost.
    Medium-term (20 to 40 years), rehabilitation unlikely to be economic.
    Long-term, alternative land uses need to be explored (i.e. forestry).
    Immediate requirement, relocation of the affected residents and provision of adjustment programs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,940 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    How long does it take for sterile ash to become fertile soil???

    Ah you're talking thousands of years at least, I think, but I was just joking. Once the ashfall stops though, it could be as little as a year before the soil recovers enough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,699 ✭✭✭bamboozle


    are there any updates as to the intensity of the volcano?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    bamboozle wrote: »
    are there any updates as to the intensity of the volcano?

    Cloud covered since last night so cannot be observed but clouds are due to clear later today. It did get slightly more explosive yesterday evening but no major changes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭dak


    bamboozle wrote: »
    are there any updates as to the intensity of the volcano?

    No major change !


    sitelogo-eng.gif?v=090930
    Go to site map.

    Eruption in Iceland - frequently asked questions



    Update on activity

    Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

    Conditions - 11 May 2010 18:45

    The grey eruption plume is heading southsoutheast and it’s hight is similar to previous days. Observations from air and web cameras show similar activity to yesterday. In the afternoon there was an increase in explosive activity, giving darker and slightly higher plume.
    No major changes are seen in the activity, but small variation can still be expected. Presently there are no indications that the eruption is about to end.
    For further information, see the status report issued collectively by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences at 15:00.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,699 ✭✭✭bamboozle




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭alibabba


    bamboozle wrote: »

    Positive news !

    All i see here is another typical example of profit before people.


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