Ask a Pro.

What a spoofer. 'Play the bad e/w races'

Amazing. Groundbreaking.

Verance wrote: »

Where?

i've just seen it's 'awaiting moderation' it'll be up shortly

Hi mug could you give me your definition of an edge, I went to a seminar recently given by a guy who plays the stock market, he also used the word edge alot.
Thanks

nice1franko wrote: »

How much did you lose in your worst losing streak?

Do you find it stressful much?

Has ever been tempted to give it up?

Were you always a pro gambler or what did you do before it?

Have you any shocking or amazing tales of crookedness or cheating?

What bet have you been most proud of?

About how much do you make a year?

Have you any rules or limits you set yourself?

i've answered most of the questions in the interview on pricewiseextra, but i'll happily answer any more on here or under the comments on that site.

on the questions above...

i find it pretty stressful sometimes when i've been on a bad run and i've got a big bet running. probably the biggest bet i ever had was on a snooker match recently, where i'd lumped on over loads of markets, match odds, points supremacy spreads, break supremacies, handicap markets. i thought the guy i bet on was double the price he should have been and the handicap was out by about 3 frames.

it's hard to put a figure on what i could have lost because a lot of the bets were spread bets, but if my guy had actually lost the match and been outscored heavily it could have been between 60 and 100k.

i knew this was highly unlikely but i was still very nervous watching the first session. fortunately he pulled clear after a bad first session and won easily covering the handicaps and making a decent profit for me on the spreads.

i didn't actually win that much in the end though because he faield to make the higest break of the match (he screwed the white in off the final black deliberately for a bit of show-boating, when he was on for a 124 break which would have been enough) and that was a 12k swing for me.

i have been tempted to give it up when i'm on a bad run and lose more than i should through tilt, but i'm getting better at handling that and getting more professional with what i do... i do well from gambling but i really should do a lot better, and there's really no reason for me to stop.

my income varies greatly but i gave a couple of figure in the interview that gives u an idea of my average

i don't have any stories of crookedness other than the obvious ones that make the papers or become general knowledge. i've never made any money from betting on a rigged match or race, although i definitely would if i was lucky enough to hear about it

i frequently set myself rules about being more professional etc, but there's definitely room for improvement. limits aren't really an issue.

the best value bet that i ever had, didn't come from me, it came from a friend with a good football contact who told him just b4 kick off that half their team was being rested. we got on a few markets at ridiculous odds and copped the lot. but i can't be proud of that one since it wasn't my bet.

one that i was quite proud of was a few years ago when morinho was at chelsea, they were losing 1-0 against newcastle at half time and morinho made 3 sustitutions for the 2nd half. not long after the break wayne bridge went down with what looked like a very bad injury, and it didn't look like he was getting back up.

i immediatly realised the implications of this before the masses on betfair did, and lumped everything i had in the account on newcastle, which was quite a bit as i played a lot of poker on there, even though i didn't bet on sports for particularly high stakes at the time. i can't remember the figures exactly, but once the penny dropped with people that chelsea were going to have to finish the match with 10 men, newcastles price dropped quite a bit and i had a nice freeroll for 5 grand or so before they even started the match again.

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Did you have any bets today? There was a couple of races that seemed to fit the profile you were talking about.

yeah, there were a couple which looked like they might turn out ok, but they weren't going to be big value from what i could tell from looking at betfair early in the morning. normally i'd have checked back later around 11-12 but i was out playing golf so gave them a swerve.

i'll have a look tomorrow and let u know if i'm doing anything, and if not, why not.

Woddle wrote: »

Hi pointbreak, first off I just want to say well done on the site, I've been following it, pretty much since you started it and its excellent. The interview is great but what I think would be good is say one day a week he puts his bets in a diary and shares his logic behind each bet, obviously to be done after that trading day.

Also if you get a chance to see how I got on today and give a bit of feedback it would be much appreciated.

it's not that i'm against the idea of explaining my bets after i've done them, but it's just most of the time there won't be that much to say.

i've explained the logic behind the EW horse stuff, and that is the same every day. i don't look at form/trainers/track/jockeys... it's just mathematical.

with the sports betting stuff, most of the good stuff come from other guys i know. a lot of it is last minute, like late weather reports affecting stuff like rugby points spreads and handicaps, or team news affecting soccer matches. there's not much point me explaining each of these bets as they happen, because it's going to be the same every time....

the rain has started pissing down in sydney so the total points spread is too high for the waratahs game (or the match handicap is wrong as it's less likely to be a lot of points in the game) and we try to get on before the prices or spreads get changed

or team X in some reasonably obscure league, is resting 2 of their best players so we back the opposing team with whatever firm has it best price, before it becomes public knowledge and the price goes.

with some of the other stuff i get from these guys, i have no idea how they pick them or how they go about compiling their chosen sports, so i can't explain their thinking, but i know they all do very well on sports betting and struggle to get on themselves, so whenever they give me a bet, i follow it blindly.

the sport i do best on myself is snooker, and i wouldn't mind putting up some of the match bets/outright bets that i do provided i am already on myself, but it's the end of the season now, and anyway, most of the stuff i do is in-running for the frames where i basically put up prices that are about 20% less that what i think the true price is and adjust them as i go along. some frames i don't get anything matched at all, but usually i get a bit.. and sometimes it's amazing what sort of money u can get layed at stupid prices... but this isn't really something i can specifically explain either, as it's just me using my own judgement as someone who has played and watched a lot of snooker and has a good mind for pricing up situations, reacting to the frame i'm watching and hoping other people make mistakes

Woddle wrote: »

Hi mug could you give me your definition of an edge, I went to a seminar recently given by a guy who plays the stock market, he also used the word edge alot.
Thanks

when i say i have an edge on something, i mean that i have made a profit on it over a long period of time. it's pretty easy for me to calculate what egde i have (or what my expected ROI should be) on the horse racing thing, as i explained in my post under the interview on pricewiseextra.

with the sports betting it's hard to be sure, as it's just my opinion or the opinion of guys i know, but the fact that we all show a profit on it over the year, and the fact that most of the bets we get on go off at shorter prices, suggests we do have an edge on what we're doing.

i know how much money i've made from betting, but i've no idea how much i've staked, so i'm not really sure how big an edge i have have. i would estimate that my overall ROI has been 5% or something like that, and whatever it is, it should definitely be higher as i've been completely unprofessional at times

Sizzler wrote: »

Posted up some q's and then saw the link to the interview so have erased the original q's:o

Interesting stuff on the horse racing it has to be said, was just looking at a few races today that fit the profile, and yesterday the last race at Wolver also springs to mind where a major gamble was foiled with Barney Curley's 1/3 Fav being turned over. In such cases, as yesterday, how do you cope with a sustained gamble, I get the impression you are ready to get your money down as soon as the firms have priced up, but yesterday Curleys horses were backed in from double digits to very short odds, surely this will distort your perception of the e/w market? Are you tempted to weigh in again?

Whilst the e/w strategy seems to be long term,and you make no bones about it, today as an example would have played out as follows -

Warwick 240 - 5/4 Fav (unplaced) next in betting was 8/1 and was also unplaced. No return.

Warwick 310 - 1/2 Fav (unplaced) 2nd fav 8/1 c/f's also unplaced, granted only paying 2 places here.No return.

Beverley 200 - 10/11 Fav wins, 2nd fav was 2nd at 5/1. So you break even here.

Beverley 430 - 1/5 Fav wins, 2nd co fav is 2nd @ 11/1. Profit.

Am I interpreting these examples right?

Also would be interested to hear your thoughts on arbouring? Something Ivan Yates warned his staff about last year in a leaked memo, obviously theres patience required but is there money to be made here, any examples?

Cheers!

re. yesterday's goings on with the gambles, it doesn't affect what i do at all... the last time i look at the markets is at around lunchtime, and if things look like good value then, i will drive around my usual route getting my bets on. if circumstances change just before the race i might be able to get very small money on online, but i won't have time to get to shops and get reasonable bets on, so i don't even bother looking at it. i didn't see how the overall betting finished in that race where the fav was backed into 1/3, but usually if there is a 1/3 fav then there is a bit of EW value to be had and if i had been aware of it i would have tried to get a bit on... but there's not always EW value just because there's an odds on fav.

looking at the examples u gave from yesterday...

3.10 wawrick SPs were: 1/2, 8/1, 8/1, 9/1, 16/1, 16/1... even though there is a 1/2 fav, this is most certainly not a good EW betting race. one the 2nd favs, u are going to be taking 8/1 about it winning, and 2/1 about it getting placed... both the win and place parts of your EW bets are going to be bad value... i didn't see the betting on betfair, but typically the 8/1 chance here would be trading at least 1 point better on betfair, and on the BF place market it would definitely be trading higher than 2/1 to place give that there are only 2 places, and after the 1/2 favourite, the race is completely wide open.... even the outsiders in the race aren't much less likely to be placed than the 2nd fav. obviously i'm talking generally here from looking at the prices because i know nothing about the specific horses involved.

a much better race would be 2/1, 5/2, 7/2, 20/1, 33/1 bar, with 8 runners... even though there aren't any odds on horses, there are 3 horses that look to have a much better chance than the rest in the betting and should occupy the first 3 places. in a race priced like this, the 7/2 shot will typically be trading at around 1.4 (2/5) on the exchanges to place... u are getting 7/10, which is a big edge, and enough to off-set the bad value u get on the win part of your bet (ur taking 7/2 about something that should probably be somewhere between 7/2 and 4/1)

basically what we are looking for is a 3 horse race with 5 or more donkeys thrown in to make up the numbers, or a 2 horse race with a few others who have no real chance. the 3.10 at wawrick is a race with 1 clear favourite, and 5 donkeys. (i know it didn't turn out like that as the fav was turned over, but i hope u get what i'm saying)

the 2.40 wawrick is a similar story, although not as bad value as this one. outside the 5/4 fav, it's actually quite a competitive race

2.00 beverly, similar... after the 10/11 fav, there are 5 that are fairly close in the betting

4.30 beverly... no bet either. there is a 1/5 fav then 3 horses all around 11/1 or 12/1 and only 2 places cos it's a 7 horse race... this is a definite no-go... i dont know if any of u were following the race before it started but typically the next 3 in the betting would be about 4points gigher on betfair for the win market, so even if u were getting EW value (which you probably wouldn't be in this case) it would be out-weighed by the bad value u are getting for the win part of your bet.


the 2 races that were closest to being a bet for me were ones that you haven't mentioned... the 2.20 and 3.50 at yarmouth.. have a look at the betting

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,369826,00.html

one race was probably very slight value, the other was close but not quite... but neither were worth leaving the house for