The Iceland Volcano Thread

Meanwhile, air travellers were promised only "minimal disruption" today as it emerged that Irish academics have developed the country's first system of forecasting the dispersion of the ash plume.

Sophisticated

The forecasting system developed at NUI Galway is expected to be one of the most sophisticated in Europe.

The four-day forecasts of plume density and dispersion are currently compiled at least twice a day.

However, over the next week these will increase to six-day forecasts, four times daily.

Professor Colin O'Dowd, director of the Centre for Climate & Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway, behind the new system, said the rapid development of the volcanic plume forecasting system would provide Ireland's own capability of assessment and prediction.

... next-generation replacement Harmonie, which is higher resolution (Hirlam run at 11km, Harmonie at 2.5-5km, heading for 1km).


..Harmonie is currently under quasi-operational mode in Met Eireann, ..ICHEC and Met Eireann R&A (are) debugging it in places, and it is being given to the operational forecasters to evaluate. They're notoriously conservative : after all its their reputations at stake, and it will be 1-2 years before it takes over HIRLAM. Within the Hirlam community in Europe its not the official product yet, but pressure is on to make it a "supported, operational" model before the end of year.

...Harmonie is computatationally expensive, so you would run it only over land, that is over Ireland itself. The Hirlam model is currently run both in a 'fine' resolution over Ireland and 'operational' over the whole of the N. Atlantic to Greenland (snow cover on Greenland affects the Irish weather 3 days later). No need to have 1 km resolution over the atlantic, its really only needed over the topography of Ireland.

bamboozle wrote: »

in the coloured scale of 1 - 8000 what level exceeds tolerated levels for aircraft is it once it goes into the black?