DTT Commercial Multiplexes (was OneVision, Boxer etc...)

carrolls · 12-04-2010 03:05PM

With Friday (D-Day) fast approaching, how do you think its going to go?
If its a purely business decision OneVision will pull out no question.
I mean 150,000 (the very maximum) households subscribing €10.00 a month (not a great deal of money) with all of OneVision's setup costs and outgoings. Remember how hard Sky worked tooth and nail in the early 2000's to get its first 100,000 customers in Ireland. They were practically (not quite) giving their services away for free for years.

rabbitsears · 12-04-2010 04:25PM

I'm not a betting man but I would bet money on Onevision welching on the deal. However would Easy TV go for the licence?

I'm not convinced that DTT is a commercial proposition at all.

Sam Russell · 12-04-2010 04:41PM

I think that if Onevision pulls out, EasyTV will go with it. RTE and UPC combined would be in a better position, as UPC already have the market expertise, and could shut down MMDS and put that customer base onto DTT. The whole landscape would change then. They could then tackle $ky, and make inroads on their market, and we would have competition.

RTE could launch with HD on all channels, but only give it to DTT, and shut out $ky.

Here's hoping.

12-04-2010 07:12PM

So what you're saying is that UPc's business plan should be little or no new customers.
Shove the existing mmds ones onto DTT and increase overheads by millions a year and meanwhile the mmds tx's are unsaleable..

I can hear the bankers laughing at that proposition ... loudly!

byte · 12-04-2010 08:12PM

I'd doubt if the 3 commercial Muxes would be enough space to replace their digital MMDS offering?

If they had more commercial muxes available, it might make more sense, as they could use the MMDS wholly for FWA broadband purposes?

I'm possibly missing something though that makes this theory far too simplistic!

Kristopherus · 12-04-2010 08:24PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that if Onevision pulls out, EasyTV will go with it. RTE and UPC combined would be in a better position, as UPC already have the market expertise, and could shut down MMDS and put that customer base onto DTT. The whole landscape would change then. They could then tackle $ky, and make inroads on their market, and we would have competition.

RTE could launch with HD on all channels, but only give it to DTT, and shut out $ky.

Here's hoping.

Of course that would be the sensible and most logical thing to do in the current mess. But then logic is a scarce commodity in the current saga so far.

Sponge Bob · 12-04-2010 08:27PM

byte wrote: »

I'm possibly missing something though that makes this theory far too simplistic!

Yeah Comreg would love to auction that MMDS spectrum for 3G LTE like every other EU state is doing, if they got the other two muxes post ASO ( and with RTE as partner they could get their hands on the second PS mux) so what do you reckon they could do with 5 muxes instead of 3 ??

The Cush · 12-04-2010 09:00PM

carrolls wrote: »

With Friday (D-Day) fast approaching, how do you think its going to go?

Is today not D-Day? The BAI board meeting was this day two weeks ago and the report appeared in the following Friday's Irish Independent.

byte wrote: »

I'd doubt if the 3 commercial Muxes would be enough space to replace their digital MMDS offering?

If they had more commercial muxes available, it might make more sense, as they could use the MMDS wholly for FWA broadband purposes?

I'm possibly missing something though that makes this theory far too simplistic!

Sam Russell wrote: »

and could shut down MMDS and put that customer base onto DTT. The whole landscape would change then. They could then tackle $ky, and make inroads on their market, and we would have competition.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Yeah Comreg would love to auction that MMDS spectrum for 3G LTE like every other EU state is doing, if they got the other two muxes post ASO ( and with RTE as partner they could get their hands on the second PS mux) so what do you reckon they could do with 5 muxes instead of 3 ??

At the moment UPC digital MMDS has 9 muxes available per transmitter, I don't think 3 DTT muxes would compensate for the loss of the MMDS frequencies. Add to that the cost of replacing STBs and possibly aerials for existing subscribers.

In any case there is an option in the current regulations that allows UPC the use of this spectrum until 2019 albeit subject to review and efficient use of spectrum.

Sam Russell · 12-04-2010 10:38PM

The Cush wrote: »

At the moment UPC digital MMDS has 9 muxes available per transmitter, I don't think 3 DTT muxes would compensate for the loss of the MMDS frequencies. Add to that the cost of replacing STBs and possibly aerials for existing subscribers.

1. Not all MMDS subscibers are on Digital. MMDS also broadcasts the PUB mux channels.

2. 60% of DTT subscribers will be able to receive DTT on rabbit ears.

3. The market for TV is not dictated by the number of channels. Some Most are a pathetic waste os spectrum. The market should be offered quality rather than quantity. Look at the prices demanded and paid for sports coverage, particularly soccer.

4. The right offering would compete with $ky and win market share. It is much cheaper to use DTT than MMDS. Fewer Txs and smaller aerials, and greater penetration of signal. MMDS was never a good system, with line of sight transmission, terrain causing signal loss.

DTT is in place, it just needs a decent market model to get it to pay for itself. I think RTE and UPC are the only players who could make it work. RTE have built the network, and UPC can populate the channels.

RTE should have launched the service last year, when they hit the 90% coverage. That would then have forced the hand of Onevision, and we would now have a full service, of at least the PUB mux. They should now launch with HD services on RTE1 and RTE2, much earlier than Oct 2010.

12-04-2010 10:56PM

nothing will compete with sky at this stage unless people want an inferior service.
Nobody new(except maybe a few thousand fools who know no better) are going to pay for whats free on freesat
Existing customers are existing revenue not new revenue.

Those are 3 very powerfull things sinking pay dtt even with upc far far down the deep ocean.

Sam Russell · 13-04-2010 10:56AM

Deleted User wrote: »

nothing will compete with sky at this stage unless people want an inferior service.

.

You would have said that about the ESB, buts lots of people are changing over to Bord Gais and Airtricity. People can put up with a lesser service for a lesser price.

Also this is not a short term setup, it is forever. DTT is here to stay, and it will be made to work. If the model chosen is to get existing channels and existing services onto it and nothing more, it will be a missed oportunity. However, if it tries to offer a new set of options, then it will be a commercial success. However, we have seen this situation before. On the bright side, RTE2 was setup rather than rebroadcast a UK channel. There is hope in all this gloom.

Maybe we could persuade Anglo Irish Bank to come up with the readies and bail out Onevision. What's €20 million guarantee to them - 15 minutes.:D

13-04-2010 11:12AM

The esb and bord gáis are completely different.
They are using an existing infrastructure.

You didn't have to put up a new pole to move to them.
You didn't get their services for free and move to another that was charging.
Everybody has them already.

Etc etc The list is too long to show how incomparable that example is to the non existant business case for pay dtt in Ireland at this stage.

The sky service like or loathe mr murdock is 2nd to none.
The choice,the quality,the flexibility and it's got into so many homes at this stage.
Ffs you can order your sky box to record something from your phone whilst on a quad bike in outer mongolia..
There will be some fools of course that will go and pay for a vastly inferior service but not many.
The tide has well and truly gone out and the fact that the goons in the BAI or whatever they are calling themselves are still trying to float the boat in sticky muddy sand speaks for itself.
If a private enterprise were the decision makers,they'd have called time on this farce before the bidding stage it's so ridiculous.

If something goes ahead,I'll say typical Ireland with the blinkers on learning the thick way and the hard way and of course doing the often irish thing Wasting money

rabbitsears · 13-04-2010 11:36AM

Of course Sky have a big advantage in that they are in many homes at this stage - however they continue to withold many of the very UK channels most Irish punters want to see.

Using 'Other channels' to watch BBC HD etc. is crap. You can't send a text to your Sky box in Ireland from Outer Mongolia or Ballyfermot to set a recording up on BBC HD or even UTV if you have an Irish Sky box.

Eircom I'm sure still want to provide triple play but is the way to provide it via an expensive DTT service duplicating and charging people for what's already available for free?

slegs · 13-04-2010 12:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

nothing will compete with sky at this stage unless people want an inferior service.
Nobody new(except maybe a few thousand fools who know no better) are going to pay for whats free on freesat
Existing customers are existing revenue not new revenue.

Those are 3 very powerfull things sinking pay dtt even with upc far far down the deep ocean.

10 eur for 20 popular channels will fly big time if it can be done profitably. An awful lot of people have Sky for digital RTE (not most but a lot). They are paying 22e per month. It would be a no brainer for these people to move.

Sam Russell · 13-04-2010 12:37PM

slegs wrote: »

10 eur for 20 popular channels will fly big time if it can be done profitably. An awful lot of people have Sky for digital RTE (not most but a lot). They are paying 22e per month. It would be a no brainer for these people to move.

Exactly. I think if you could get Beeb FTA on DTT, that would cause a lot of people to drop cable and $ky. If you could get 20 QUALITY channels on DTT for €10 a month, many would change over. Those paying €90 a month would never change, of course.

If UPC and RTE could organise a good offering, avoiding what is not wanted and what is already free, for €10 a month, there would be a market. $ky have a market, but it is under threat from Freesat, as all it takes is a different box. Just as when the overspill settles down and people hear about it, many will go the Dx route to FTA television.

Many do not know how easy DTT and Freesat is to get.

13-04-2010 12:46PM

It will fly my eye slegs.

It would take years to get up to 30 or 40 k subscribers and at €120 each,it won't pay the wages never mind the tx rental.

I know of a typical example of the non digital houses down the road from me who eventually paid 15 euro for a picnic box and thought long and hard for that.
Another example said to me "I'm not renting!" which is what she called paying sky.
So now she owns a freesat box but hasn't worked out how to use it yet [it only has 3 channels apparently].

Those are the dregs that are left after the absolute codology dtt planning in this country in the last decade where nobody decided anything.

Sky always has churn.It's a fairly stable figure.Customers that churn aren't a good business plan either.
No loyalty and not enough of them.
So you are left with the people that will accept a lesser service than sky but want more than freesat.

It's all the dregs of the barrel.

slegs · 13-04-2010 01:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It will fly my eye slegs.

It would take years to get up to 30 or 40 k subscribers and at €120 each,it won't pay the wages never mind the tx rental.

I know of a typical example of the non digital houses down the road from me who eventually paid 15 euro for a picnic box and thought long and hard for that.
Another example said to me "I'm not renting!" which is what she called paying sky.
So now she owns a freesat box but hasn't worked out how to use it yet [it only has 3 channels apparently].

Those are the dregs that are left after the absolute codology dtt planning in this country in the last decade where nobody decided anything.

Sky always has churn.It's a fairly stable figure.Customers that churn aren't a good business plan either.
No loyalty and not enough of them.
So you are left with the people that will accept a lesser service than sky but want more than freesat.

It's all the dregs of the barrel.

Its a long shot I agree but they could get 100-200k subs at 10eur per month plus value add premium packages on top for 20% of these. Possible revenue up to 30m per annum.

Personally I dont think it will happen either but I do think there is a model there that will work with the right thinking and backing. Its just that the current climate makes investing in medium term loss making businesses impossible.

Sam Russell · 13-04-2010 02:13PM

slegs wrote: »

Its a long shot I agree but they could get 100-200k subs at 10eur per month plus value add premium packages on top for 20% of these. Possible revenue up to 30m per annum.

Personally I dont think it will happen either but I do think there is a model there that will work with the right thinking and backing. Its just that the current climate makes investing in medium term loss making businesses impossible.

Yes, but Eicom has an interest in pushing triple play, and UPC could see it as a viable way of scrapping analogue MMDS, and possibly introduce two-way MMDS for BB or telephone. The spectrum is theirs at the moment.

Not likely, but the economy is bound to rebound sometime.

carrolls · 13-04-2010 03:41PM

slegs wrote: »

Its a long shot I agree but they could get 100-200k subs at 10eur per month plus value add premium packages on top for 20% of these. Possible revenue up to 30m per annum.

Personally I dont think it will happen either but I do think there is a model there that will work with the right thinking and backing. Its just that the current climate makes investing in medium term loss making businesses impossible.

100k-200k is extremely optimistic, and even if they get that at €10 per head, thats only €12-24 million income. Value added premium packages will only add another €10 million max and thats with Sky Sports HD/MoviesHD as options.
After the call centre is paid for and is fitted out, the employees and execs are paid, the carriage is paid for, the launch is paid for, advertising is paid for, and the TV companies are paid for their channels, encryption is paid for, and the boxes are subsidised, how much will be left in the kitty?

d8player · 13-04-2010 03:46PM

I think there are a lot of people who would be delighted to avail of the extra channels but don't want to put up a Sky dish.

SPDUB · 13-04-2010 07:26PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

You would have said that about the ESB, buts lots of people are changing over to Bord Gais and Airtricity.

Well if you want to follow the model of what happened with the ESB etc then you force SKY to put up it's prices and therefore create an artificial market like they did with Bord Gais and Airtricity.

That's one way of allowing DTT to "succeed "

Sam Russell · 13-04-2010 08:13PM

SPDUB wrote: »

Well if you want to follow the model of what happened with the ESB etc then you force SKY to put up it's prices and therefore create an artificial market like they did with Bord Gais and Airtricity.

That's one way of allowing DTT to "succeed "

No that is not what I think will work.

The point I was making is that this is a long term business, not a quick turn-a-buck operation. If you want to look at a similar business, look back at Princess Holdings introduction of MMDS. They pursued the gov. to stop the deflectors through the courts, rather than offering a near-free come on to those with deflector reception, and gradually suck them in with better value options. Of course, Princess Holdings are no longer involved in MMDS.

The right model will work. Mistakes at this point will collapse the whole commercial Paytv DTT model, and leave RTE with 4 muxes to play jam today and jam tomorrow with.

BoredNaMoaner · 14-04-2010 09:03AM

"Race for DTT licences begin"

http://www.iolfree.ie/~icdg/news_160501a.htm

While waiting for the big announcement, just some breaking news from the archives to ponder.

carrolls · 14-04-2010 09:39AM

BoredNaMoaner wrote: »

"Race for DTT licences begin"

http://www.iolfree.ie/~icdg/news_160501a.htm

While waiting for the big announcement, just some breaking news from the archives to ponder.

Nine years on and we still haven't made it past first base. What they have to do is de-commercialise it like they did in Britain and maybe they can salvage something out of the mess even at this late stage.

scath · 14-04-2010 10:42AM

When are we to hear the fate of the DTT negotiations? Thought it was this week. By the looks of it, looks more like the weekend or next week. Depends on when the clock starts I suppose. Can't be long now! hopefully lol

The Cush · 14-04-2010 11:18AM

scath wrote: »

When are we to hear the fate of the DTT negotiations? Thought it was this week. By the looks of it, looks more like the weekend or next week. Depends on when the clock starts I suppose. Can't be long now! hopefully lol

I assume the decision was made at the last BAI board meeting on 29th Mar. Clock was probably ticking from the date they were formally notified, some day that week no doubt. The decision may not be announced until the BAI board meets again.

scath · 14-04-2010 01:31PM

The Cush wrote: »

I assume the decision was made at the last BAI board meeting on 29th Mar. Clock was probably ticking from the date they were formally notified, some day that week no doubt. The decision may not be announced until the BAI board meets again.

The decision was made to given them 2 weeks at that meeting isn't it? Well that would have expired on Monday just passed. I suppose its the delay in the papers writing about it. Suppose we should see it in the papers tomorrow or Friday the outcome. The next board meeting wouldn't be for another 2 weeks. Well, if One Vision have declined they've probably been in contact with Easy TV yesterday and will be awaiting word back later this week or next week. I'd say by the next board meeting, should be announced, Easy TV are in negotiations, or else that One Vision have signed off and in the process of forming the arrangements for launch. Either way we should hear something shortly.

BoredNaMoaner · 17-04-2010 05:08AM

Goodbye OneVision.

Headline on today's indo.

Eircom’s paid-for TV project falters

Eircom’s plans for the next generation of paid-for TV is hanging by a thread after the One Vision consortium ended crucial negotiations with RTE.

The Cush · 17-04-2010 07:24AM

BoredNaMoaner wrote: »

Goodbye OneVision.

Headline on today's indo.

Eircom’s paid-for TV project falters

Eircom’s plans for the next generation of paid-for TV is hanging by a thread after the One Vision consortium ended crucial negotiations with RTE.

Thanks for that BoredNaMoaner. Not on the Indo website yet.

Front page with the headline at the bottom of the page (Business Section article p.17)

Bob_Harris · 17-04-2010 10:50AM

http://www.independent.ie/business/media/eircoms-plan-for-pay-tv-on-brink-as-rte-talks-collapse-2142122.html

Eircom's plan for pay TV on brink as RTE talks collapse

By Laura Noonan

Saturday April 17 2010

EIRCOM's pitch to be at the forefront of the next generation of paid-for television is hanging by a thread after the telco's One Vision consortium apparently reached the end of the line in its crucial negotiations with RTE's networks division.

The consortium has spent almost a year locked in negotiations with RTE in a bid to secure a transmission contract for the commercial aspect of a new television platform known as DTT.

The impasse promoted the Eircom-led consortium to lobby the Broadcasting Authority for an independent assessment of the RTE negotiations. The independent assessor, former Comreg chair, Isolde Goggin, reported back on Wednesday and indicated that the gulf between RTE and One Vision was too wide to merit further conversation.

One Vision and RTE are understood to have clashed on everything from the price of network carriage to the marketing support for DTT to the type of security One Vision would need to offer RTE for networks investment to be made. Sources at One Vision acknowledged an agreement with RTE's networks division was the only practical option for getting their DTT project on air, and confirmed they had received Ms Goggin's conclusions.

A One Vision spokesman said the group was "considering" the former Comreg chair's report. The consortium has been given until Wednesday to make any comments to the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland (BAI). A spokesman for the BAI declined to comment on the developments.

If One Vision's report to the BAI does not convince the regulator there are grounds to believe a deal can be reached with RTE, the regulator is likely to conclude that One Vision will be unable to take up the commercial DTT contract.

That will leave the regulator with no option but to offer the contract to Easy TV, a partnership between RTE and UPC owner Liberty Global which initially applied for the DTT tender. Such a move could raise eyebrows given that One Vision could argue that RTE was instrumental in their inability to do a deal on DTT. Easy TV's enduring appetite for DTT remains unclear.

- Laura Noonan

Irish Independent

DTT Commercial Multiplexes (was OneVision, Boxer etc...)

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